Open 137: Mountainous Multiball (GAME OVER!) before 781

[Gregory]

Hey, I'm pretty sure scot is zero's partner.

Zero ruined the game, he claimed on page 4 allready, and looking at his posts and getting a small indication of his personality, I don't think he lied and so scot is his partner.

secondly, scum A wants scum B dead, just as much as we want. The easiest for them would be to lynch him, because town doesn't learn anything from it, and they can kill a townie.

If we try to lynch scum A, scum has to nk scot. Wich means if town lynches wrong, we'll lose 1 town, lose scum B, and win some info because scum would probably on the wagon.
If we lynch right, we lose 2 scum in one night. That would make it all a lot easier, wouldn't it.

In my opinion, scot isn't the best choise. so that leaves me with a couple other guys. WC is my prime-suspect, because he didn't do anything else as discussing the end, and of course his scumslip on page 1.

furry, why do I fit as Zero's partner? just because I didn't vote him and I didn't want you guys to pull the trigger on page 3?
OK, the bandwagon vote could be scummy. I won't argue that, but that's all, I thought.

The “Take Note Of Rule #18” Vote Count

White Castle -4- (Kaiveran, Flava Flave, Gregory, zwetschenwasser)

Gregory -1- (Furry)

Not Voting: White Castle, Drench, Huntress, Scott Brosius

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to Lynch.

If there's a mistake, let me know.

[Huntress]

huntress, I've already explained why I think Scott is scum, and I'm buying the already stated WC case.

Where did you explain? All I can find is post 117, where you vote him saying he is confirmed, and post 122, where you seem to want to lynch him purely to end the WIFOM. Neither of these tells me why you think he may be scum. In fact post 122 implies you're not going to try to decide whether he is scum or not but you just want to lynch him anyway.

Hunt- I'm not sure what more discussion would have done at least for that day. I thought it better to move to the next day where we would have more information after lynching zer0 and the NK and have a more informed choice tonight about who is mafia. What zer0 did was bad even if he actually was a villager and needed to be voted off regardless. Hence my willingness to stick with my vote. Today we have more information and not an egregious breach of roles, which is why although I think WC is the best choice, I am not jumping on the wagon yet to force a majority.

Agreed that Zer0 had to be lynched but I think we could have had a lot more information from interactions if day one had lasted longer. Cutting the day short just makes it easier for scum to avoid saying too much.

... and have a more informed choice

tonight

about who is mafia.

And talking about saying too much ... Are you telling us here that you have a night choice? That together with the quickhammer puts you high on my list.


Still to come: Reply to Kaiveran and comments on Gregory.

[zwetschenwasser]

Greg's analysis = my analysis

[Huntress]

Greg's analysis = my analysis

What analysis? That doesn't answer my questions about your reasons for voting SB and WC.

[zwetschenwasser]

Hey, I'm pretty sure scot is zero's partner.

Zero ruined the game, he claimed on page 4 allready, and looking at his posts and getting a small indication of his personality, I don't think he lied and so scot is his partner.

secondly, scum A wants scum B dead, just as much as we want. The easiest for them would be to lynch him, because town doesn't learn anything from it, and they can kill a townie.

If we try to lynch scum A, scum has to nk scot. Wich means if town lynches wrong, we'll lose 1 town, lose scum B, and win some info because scum would probably on the wagon.
If we lynch right, we lose 2 scum in one night. That would make it all a lot easier, wouldn't it.

[Huntress]

@ Zwet: I still want to see

your

answer to the question I asked you in post 151. Don't try and hide behind Greg. Did you actually have any reason apart from Zer0's claim when you voted Scott? What is your opinion of the case against WC?

I was not trying to avoid discussion, I just had a bunch of crap to do yesterday and couldn't be online much, so I cast my vote based on my previous suspicions.

Post 100 made it look like you

were

trying to avoid it; and as for your vote today, how does that fit in with the following statements you made on day one:

No real lynch material as of yet IMO, but he's someone to keep tabs on.

I usually don't vote unless I'm at least fairly sure that they're worthy of lynching, ...

I've already said that I don't like to vote seriously until there's good evidence. I like to get rid of as much "maybe" as possible before placing my vote.

As WC is at L-1 and you haven't removed your vote I assume you now consider him "worthy of lynching". Does that mean you have further evidence against him?

Also, why are you so concerned about White Castle getting lynched? If you think he is town, how about showing some evidence to back up your claim?

I am not claiming he is town, although I don't think there is a good case against him, but I'm suspicious of the rush to lynch him. It just seems very opportunistic to me.

@ Kaiveran and SB: Can you tell me why you ignored the point I made in the last paragraph of post 96?

I didn't ignore it, Scott did, and his vote doesn't prove anything. It could

just as easily

been an indignant townie move as it could have been a mafioso dumping his buddy after he screwed up.

You certainly appeared to be ignoring it when you encouraged a quick-lynch in post 100. Did you think my point wasn't valid?

This seems like a cheap way to link two people as suspects.

Mud-slinging? Or a guilty conscience? If you look back to the end of day one you can see why the question was only addressed to the two of you.

[Furry]

@Furry
Those are high odds you have there.

When I give numbers instead of words like "very sure" people seem to listen to me a bit more since numbers are convincing. 80% of studies done prove this.

Hey, I'm pretty sure scot is zero's partner.

Zero ruined the game, he claimed on page 4 allready, and looking at his posts and getting a small indication of his personality,

I don't think he lied and so scot is his partner.

secondly, scum A wants scum B dead, just as much as we want. The easiest for them would be to lynch him, because town doesn't learn anything from it, and they can kill a townie.

Really, give me reasoning that lynching mafia A is better then mafia B. If we lynch mafia B we completely eliminate one kill each night, gone, no more two town dead in the morning. The chance of mafia x-kill is gone, but with poor luck, tomorrow is lylo.

Also town needs to kill of mafia B eventually. Lets say we lynch town, and SB is mafia B. Why wouldnt mafia A avoid him in hopes of a 2A-1B-3T game tomorrow? There is too much of a risk in not lynching who you think is zeros partner in place of someone who you just think is scummy. Acknowlaging that mafia B is a preferable lynch, giving a name of a player you think is B, then not voting them just reitterates my feelings on you being zeros partner.

If we try to lynch scum A, scum has to nk scot. Wich means if town lynches wrong, we'll lose 1 town, lose scum B, and win some info because scum would probably on the wagon.
If we lynch right, we lose 2 scum in one night. That would make it all a lot easier, wouldn't it.

Mafia never have to do anything. Thats the problem. While there are optimal moves, gambits do occur, as do subpar moves. I would rather prepare for the worst case scenario then prepare for the best case one.

In my opinion, scot isn't the best choise. so that leaves me with a couple other guys. WC is my prime-suspect, because he didn't do anything else as discussing the end, and of course his scumslip on page 1.

but scot is scum... wow thats a bit confusing. How sure are you of SB being scum as compared to WC?

furry, why do I fit as Zero's partner? just because I didn't vote him and I didn't want you guys to pull the trigger on page 3?
OK, the bandwagon vote could be scummy. I won't argue that, but that's all, I thought.

You did nothing the first day except passively defend most people, also a bit of a coaching move towards zero. I cant remember your stance on anything for the entire day, being that much of a ghost on its own is a bit suspect.

Today you bandwagon up WC (give me a case on him in your own words maybe?), and basically brush off my pushing against you. Now you just seem to be trying to say "mafia B is the priority, its definantly SB, but lets not lynch him." If you really think he is confirmed scum, you really should be lynching him. This just feels like you are leaving him for later in the game.

[Flava Flave]

When I give numbers instead of words like "very sure" people seem to listen to me a bit more since numbers are convincing. 80% of studies done prove this.

But the odds of anyone being scum will always be below 50% or the game will be over. This is barring situations where two players claim the same role in an open game and things like that. You won't see that in this game though.

Also, 74% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

[Furry]

When I give numbers instead of words like "very sure" people seem to listen to me a bit more since numbers are convincing. 80% of studies done prove this.

But the odds of anyone being scum will always be below 50% or the game will be over. This is barring situations where two players claim the same role in an open game and things like that. You won't see that in this game though.

I consider 50% having no good read on, much more clear on who is likely scum and who is likely town then a 25% is neutral benchmark. WC is around 55 for me, something about how that last page happened just gives me a bit of a town feel, but it goes against early gut.

[Scott Brosius]

dude, we are only on page 3.

I think some people are very quick with their votes, as there hasn't happend a lot allready

Fair enough

zwet, we don't have to kill scot.

Option 1: zero lied, and scot is town.

Option 2: zero didn't lie, and scot is scum. with this, scot can't possibly win. At this moment, he would be a serial killer that can only choose one side, town or other scum-team.

Let's hope he's going to kill some scum A's, or that he will be nightkilled. we don't have to do anything.

furry, if you think I'm scum, just because I didn't vote White castle or zero, then try to find something better.

Let's make this a fast game
and lynch someone of mafia A

vote:White castle

let's hope this is a good discision

The “Whatchu Talkin' Bout, Willis?” Vote Count

White Castle -3- (Kaiveran, Flava Flave, Gregory)

Scott Brosius -1- (zwetschenwasser)
Gregory -1- (Furry)

Not Voting: White Castle, Drench, Huntress, Scott Brosius

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to Lynch.

If there's a mistake, let me know.

Now all of a sudden when a wagon develops we want to make it a quick game d2? Why the sudden change in attitude toward quick lynching?

This combined with the specific mention of killing members of mafia A in the above post, not voting for zer0, and claiming we got a glimpse of zer0's personality yet he is able to be trusted all seem scummy to be.

Vote: Gregory

[Flava Flave]

I consider 50% having no good read on, much more clear on who is likely scum and who is likely town then a 25% is neutral benchmark. WC is around 55 for me, something about how that last page happened just gives me a bit of a town feel, but it goes against early gut.

Ok, that makes more sense then. It's more lean than odds, right?

But anyway, what about WC's last page gives you a town feel, because it gave me the opposite impression.

[Huntress]

Hey, I'm pretty sure scot is zero's partner.

Zero ruined the game, he claimed on page 4 allready, and looking at his posts and getting a small indication of his personality, I don't think he lied and so scot is his partner.

He has lied in other games as town, claiming a non-existent scum-partner. Why would he not lie as scum? What is your read on Scott apart from Zer0's claim?

In my opinion, scot isn't the best choise. so that leaves me with a couple other guys. WC is my prime-suspect, because he didn't do anything else as discussing the end, and of course his scumslip on page 1.

If you thought it was a scumslip why didn't you comment on it in post 65, instead of just saying, "there hasn't happend a lot allready"? And who is the second "other guy"?

[White Castle]

I'm town.

I was V/LA during the night period between posts 110 and 111. Night only lasted 1 day and 13.5 hours, instead of 72 hours.

Further, the mod says that I can be certain I'm the last townie.

Bull - a simple 1 scum A vs. 1 scum B vs. 1 townie with a day start. It was imperative that we know we can still win because of a scum cross-kill by no lynching.

Then that's all you needed to ask: "Can scum cross kill?" and you could've done so in a PM.

I was forced to post in the thread because you didn't put it in the rules.

There is no way to be certain that I'd be the last townie.

Forced? Giving the option of PMing me with questions,

which was put in the rules

, isn't forcing you to post in the thread. You can be certain you're the last townie. Check the the roles of the dead and do the math.

I'd appreciate it if you just dropped it and continued playing. Or we can continue, it's not skin off my back.

[White Castle]

As for me going over the numbers, it is a null tell. I've done it in all of my games. Here are my two completed ones.

I was scum in newbie 721
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 21&start=0

I was town in Open 110
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 91&start=0

I'm looking back at the thread to see who said they looked into my meta and left this detail out.

[dejkha]

Further, the mod says that I can be certain I'm the last townie.

To clarify for everyone, when I said that, I meant that anyone could figure out whether or not they're the last townie just by doing the math.

[White Castle]

So what exactly did you research? You left off the part where I go through the numbers in all of my games. I'm a math nerd

D1, you were the fourth vote on Zero and immediately thereafter he claimed. I think he knew he was screwed as soon as his partner bussed him.

Vote Kaiveran

Will post more soon.

NOTE - I fixed the broken quote otherwise it wouldn't all be quoted.

Hi guys. Serious time already, I presume.

If you believe this, then...

Joke vote: deadleaves

cause I have to rake loads of them every fall.

Why the joke vote?

I am fallible, sometimes I forget the points I make early in my posts. Oops!

I don't actually like either of flavor or white castle so far. Try and avoid the craplogic, guys.

I don't see how Flave's logic is exactly crap. I did some research and found out that White Castle had been playing for a while now, and we are playing a quite simple open setup. He'd only be genuinely concerned about Mafia win conditions if he were Mafia. In addition, when he tries to clear himself by linking his concern to the human cause he again describes a situation where the town has lost. Perhaps it's a mistake, and it's not the greatest case ever, but this is day 1 in a vanilla game, pretty much -- did you really expect lots of evidence?

ekiM Vote: Kaiveran

Just read her post. The neutral-er-than-thou attitude screams scum to me, and having to specify her vote was a joke is just extra topping.

mmm yummy suspicion[/foolin]

In all seriousness, I wasn't trying deliberately to put on a generic townie facade, as that just puts you more in the spotlight instead of making you less noticeable (duh). I usually don't vote unless I'm at least fairly sure that they're worthy of lynching, but I still like to kid around. That's how I play: I try to be helpful, but I don't want to be a stick in the mud.

Unvote

[White Castle]

Drench has been laying low. Only 4 game posts and the last one of significance was 8 days ago. His last "post" was 4/25.

[Flava Flave]

Unvote

I think the Mod just confirmed WC.

I have to point out though, your defense of how long night lasted doesn't make you town. Your buddy could have submitted the kill.

Vote Gregory

Suspicions are Gregory, Huntress, and Kaiv.

[dejkha]

I think the Mod just confirmed WC.

I didn't. I specifically made the statement neutral so there wouldn't be any confusion. He asked a question regarding the town as a whole and I figured saying "you" might've caused confusion. I used "you" as a general term for "the town". Keep in mind, every statement I make throughout the game is neutral. Play how you will, just keep that in mind.

[Furry]

But anyway, what about WC's last page gives you a town feel, because it gave me the opposite impression.

I tend to correlate genuine feelings with town much more then scum, especially since they seemed to be along the same mindset. I would expect scum having a genuine outburst to seem much more different then town going on about the same thing.

Also its just that I know I tend to get upset a lot more then town as scum, even though its fairly rare for me to snap as either.

@mod

- Prod on Drench?

[dejkha]

I prodded Drench a couple hours ago.

[White Castle]

Bringing this up because ekiM never got an answer. If he did, I'm sorry.

Furry, whose alt are you? You come off as knowing a lot for someone who just joined April 19th. You like the theory and you're picking up on the emotional stuff.

This post also reminds me of the need to get the basic theory out there. Open games can be played by newbs.

I will say this one more time. There are endgame situations where the exact win conditions for the scum affect correct townie play. If you don't understand this, then revisit my previous posts; muse upon it; or take it on faith.

These players have, in my opinion, have contributed nothing to this game so far: Empking, Gregory, Huntress, Zer0ph34r, zwetschenwasser. At least one of you is a townie. Shape up.

Furry, whose alt are you?

Kaiveran's overdefense has confirmed my vote, for now. When you're wrong just admit it and move on.

[zwetschenwasser]

Dejkha sure is doing a lousy job of modding...

[dejkha]

Dejkha sure is doing a lousy job of modding...

Thanks >_> People just seem to be looking for clues where they shouldn't be expecting to find any: in my posts. Maybe it's just bad wording on my part, but everything sounds clear and neutral to me.

[zwetschenwasser]

Whatever. It doesn't speak well for you when you're having arguments with players when you're not even playing the game.