Mini #764: Notre Dame Mafia, Game Over

[zwetschenwasser]

She's trying to confuse us with setup speculation.

[AceMarksman]

you're trying to de-rail good wagons with craplogic, opportunistic votes.

[zwetschenwasser]

Nope.

[DrippingGoofball]

This is an open setup, there's three scum and nine townies.

Ooops.

So I've got ortolan as one scum.

And one of zwet or Kinetic.

So we lynch ortolan today, someone can plague zwet tonight (I can't) and we lynch Kinetic tomorrow.

[zwetschenwasser]

I VEEL EAT YOUR SOUL WITH BREAD AND MAPLE SYRUP

[DrippingGoofball]

I VEEL EAT YOUR SOUL WITH BREAD AND MAPLE SYRUP

I hope the bread is a baguette, and the syrup from Québec. Bon appétit!

Hey you know what we call that disgusting corn syrupy fake slop Americans call "pancake syrup?"

We call it "telephone pole syrup."

Here, it's maple syrup or nothing.

[zwetschenwasser]

*headdesk*

[ac1983fan]

I'm definitely thinking along the lines of kinetic and ortolan being the remaining scum... I'm good with lynching either one of them. I was thinking ortolan was town during some of the day yesterday, but I'm thinking more along the lines of ortolan being scum... Kinetic I've thought was scummy the whole time though. So

vote: Kinetic

.

[zwetschenwasser]

That's got to be the most wishy-washy post I've ever seen.

[DrippingGoofball]

That's got to be the most wishy-washy post I've ever seen.

He just announced he's perfectly willing to lynch one of two players.

[zwetschenwasser]

You didn't read the fine print.

[Kinetic]

That quote was directed at Kinetic, not you. Top three townies were kast, CTD, and myself, we were the three main drivers of the Budja lynch. We never waivered on it.

The more people clad themselves in the armor of a successful lynch the more my scumdar goes off and thinks it was a bus.

Just because you were correct then does not mean you can start ignoring valid arguments. Sit back and actually develop a case instead of going off half-assed just because your self-righteousness won't allow you to stay calm.

I think I have an idea. Much of the case that is on me is dependent on what card I used last night.

Zwet has a double plague coming up, why don't we, by threat of lynch, tell him to make one of his targets me?

Unless, that is, you want to let Zwet have free reign to choose two plague targets.

[Kinetic]

Yes, thank you. This was exactly my point. You tried to get Ace or DGB lynched all day, rather than Budja. Budja was scum.

You're making quite the claim here... There are three scum you know... Ace and DGB could be scum.

[DrippingGoofball]

We need to know all of ortolan's cards...

"Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim can take a lifetime."

OR in this game,

"Listing your cards takes seconds, making up fake ones can take a lifetime."

[AceMarksman]

Yes, thank you. This was exactly my point. You tried to get Ace or DGB lynched all day, rather than Budja. Budja was scum.

You're making quite the claim here... There are three scum you know... Ace and DGB could be scum.

Are you just saying this or do you believe that DGB and I (or one or the other) are scum?

[Kinetic]

Yes, thank you. This was exactly my point. You tried to get Ace or DGB lynched all day, rather than Budja. Budja was scum.

You're making quite the claim here... There are three scum you know... Ace and DGB could be scum.

Are you just saying this or do you believe that DGB and I (or one or the other) are scum?

I think the possibility exists and just because Budja was proven scum doesn't mean that you or DGB were proven otherwise. To think or say otherwise is misleading at best.

[petroleumjelly]

Day Two: Vote Count #1

2 DrippingGoofball (ortolan, zwetschenwasser)
2 ortolan (charter, DrippingGoofball)
2 zwetschenwasser (Kinetic, AceMarksman)

1 Kinetic (ac1983fan)

With

10

alive, it takes

6

to lynch, and

4

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is May 8, 9:59 pm CDT.

Not Voting – 3 – Kast, Looker, Rishi

Looker replaces ZEEnon.

[charter]

That quote was directed at Kinetic, not you. Top three townies were kast, CTD, and myself, we were the three main drivers of the Budja lynch. We never waivered on it.

The more people clad themselves in the armor of a successful lynch the more my scumdar goes off and thinks it was a bus.

Wait, who besides me has done this? If you're thinking bus, then you give good reasons for thinking that, not these unfounded accusations.

Zwet has a double plague coming up, why don't we, by threat of lynch, tell him to make one of his targets me?

You clearly have not read this game. Bargaining like this is what sealed Budja's fate. I'd rather lynch you than let you weasel your way out. If you're scum, you can probably guarentee you won't die.

Yes, thank you. This was exactly my point. You tried to get Ace or DGB lynched all day, rather than Budja. Budja was scum.

You're making quite the claim here... There are three scum you know... Ace and DGB could be scum.

Could be scum? COULD BE!?!? Budja WAS scum.

[Kinetic]

That quote was directed at Kinetic, not you. Top three townies were kast, CTD, and myself, we were the three main drivers of the Budja lynch. We never waivered on it.

The more people clad themselves in the armor of a successful lynch the more my scumdar goes off and thinks it was a bus.

Wait, who besides me has done this? If you're thinking bus, then you give good reasons for thinking that, not these unfounded accusations.

Good reasons? I just gave them. Stop chest pounding. There is no reason to keep reminding people you were on a lynch unless you are insecure for some reason.

Zwet has a double plague coming up, why don't we, by threat of lynch, tell him to make one of his targets me?

You clearly have not read this game. Bargaining like this is what sealed Budja's fate. I'd rather lynch you than let you weasel your way out. If you're scum, you can probably guarentee you won't die.

Stop the hostility. Seriously, its getting annoying. The only reason you have placed to suspect me is because I targeted CTD with plague and you can't confirm it. Lynching me today before I can prove you wrong would be short sighted when there is a good chance where this can be disproved.

This is a decent compromise so that I don't "weasel [my] way out", yet there is still a chance that when there is some proof that things happened as I said it would that the kill can be prevented.

Yet from the way you're acting, you don't care if what will happen when I turn up town.

Yes, thank you. This was exactly my point. You tried to get Ace or DGB lynched all day, rather than Budja. Budja was scum.

You're making quite the claim here... There are three scum you know... Ace and DGB could be scum.

Could be scum? COULD BE!?!? Budja WAS scum.

Stop acting self-righteous. Of course Budja was scum, but that doesn't mean someone is scummy for not suspecting him or for suspecting someone who could be scum. That is the point I'm trying to make here.

You make it seem like Budja was the ONLY option when there are two other scum out there. The way you say it, with 100% 20/20 hindsight you are already declaring Budja the only scum option when there is no way to know that for sure yet.

[charter]

Kinetic, there are many reasons for suspecting you, not just poor card choice. You're doing the same thing you're accusing me of. You think you are above suspicion for some reason and I am unjustified in suspecting you, but you have done many scummy actions this game.

There are great for not letting you live until tonight and make zwet plague you. First, this buys you two more nights which is undesirable if you are scum. Also, you have great scumcards, which I'm sure you'd like to use.

I'm done responding to your unfounded accusations. Come back with a real case and we'll talk.

[DrippingGoofball]

ortolan is hoping I'm going to forget that we need to know the rest of his cards in order to decide whether it was believable for him to use a doctor card on the dead guy and claim the dead guy was ratted.

[Kast]

Hey all, hope you enjoyed your weekends.

Quick read through and thoughts.

I agree with Charter that Ort's behavior regarding Budja is probably the most suspicious and scummy thing right now.
-Primarily, I dislike how Ort kept agreeing with points that Budja is suspicious and constantly named him in his top 2(or3) suspects, but then failed to actually vote or pressure Budja.
--Charter has pointed out that Ort pushed to get people other than Budja lynched; this in and of itself is not suspicious, my problem with it is that WHILE he was pushing those other people, he also kept claiming that Budja is in his top suspects.
-I don't like how Ort (or Rishi) placed vote 6 and 7 on Budja only after it was clear that Budja was getting lynched regardless of their votes,

However, he does raise a valid point about potential Rats. If it is true that Ort doctored CTD (or if you are a townie who used a doctor on CTD), then we know that a Rat was used. This means that our two remaining mafia cannot BOTH be players who passed and were never passed Rat cards. I'll check my spreadsheet later to see if there is anyone two players who fit that description, if so, we know that at least one of the two cannot be scum (again, this is predicated on Ort being a townie OR another player using a doctor on CTD).

One problem is that ZEEnon's replacement may not have picked his card to play and it may have just been random.

@MOD-

Can you confirm whether ZEEnon's card for last night was selected randomly?

@DGB-
The player before Ort and the player after Ort are both dead. Ort's Pick #3 has already been claimed and confirmed. Rishi can only confirm one card received from Ort.

Doctor would be a normal town card to use and CTD is a reasonable target choice for a doctor last night (seeing as he got killed, then yes definitely a reasonable choice). I don't think Ort really needs to provide a reason for choosing to use a doctor card.

However, since Budja and CTD are dead, Ort is also free to lie about his cards from Pick #1 and Pick #2.

@Kinetic-
-You've danced around this with Charter, but why would you target CTD? You said you suspect there is/was bussing going on, but in that case, there are 6 other players who could have been bussing. Why CTD? It seems...a suboptimal choice at best.

-Why would you choose to use a plague right away instead of waiting until Night 2? Clearly you were mistaken about CTD; what made you so confident that he was scum that it was worth trying to kill him?

-You are using a straw man against Charter. His point, if you are scum, is not that scum Kinetic used a plague on the same scum NK target. His point, if you are scum, is that you used the NK on CTD and you are lying about using plague on CTD.

It is WiFoM to claim that you are a townie since scum would have no reason to claim using plague on CTD.

-Please explain your comment from Day 1 to populartajo that you agree with him that Kast is probably a townie, but also that you are happy to leave your vote on Kast?

@100% arguments-
I think everyone realizes that nobody can know 100% affiliations unless they are scum. It is hyperbole, and perhaps an attempt to sway people to your convictions. I propose that people just stop using that term unless they are really 100% certain of something since it isn't convincing anyone and it lets people get away with arguing against that term and while appearing to legitimately defend themselves (but so far the arguments against using the term 100% haven't been addressing all of the valid points).

@Kinetic-
-Why did you claim to have targetted CTD with your plague? I don't see a strong motivation for either scum OR town to do so. I don't recall anyone calling for you to claim your night actions; if you are a townie, then you have just let scum know that they don't have to worry about being plagued by you. If you were attempting to "trick" scum, just FYI, I absolutely would not believe it if we entered Day 3 and a townie died to plague and you suddenly reversed your position and claimed you were attempting to trick scum (that would probably lead to your lynch).

-Since we can only lynch one person, I think it is okay to wait until Day 3 and see if there are any plague victims. Come day 3, it is possible that if there are no plague victims, we can find out if Kinetic did not use his plague on a player who does not have apothecary OR is not CTD on Night 1. This "check" is not extremely telling, but then again, I think Ort is more suspicious than Kinetic anyway.

@Zwet-
Why did you choose to double instead of plaguing?

@Ace-
One of Zwet's three cards was passed to him. If it were the plague or the rat, then his picks aren't really that suspicious at all.

Even if it were the double, I can easily see a townie picking Plague as first pick (you did the same didn't you?), then being offered a choice between a defensively drafted Rat or a mimic, and picking the defensive draft.

Kinetic claimed almost that same scenario actually (although I guess you were suspicious of him for it too).

However, it may be good to get a confirmation on which order Zwet picked his cards.

@Kinetic-
Read Budja in context not isolation. Much of the reason for suspecting Budja was because of the context.

@Ort-
I don't see us gaining much from a mass night action claim. It would let scum have a strong idea of who was protected and who might no longer have protections/who us unlikely to be protected.

Scum aren't going to claim using a Rat on CTD. I'm not sure how you think we will figure out that they are lying. At least 5 players had a rat card, so it doesn't exactly narrow down our possibilities (that's not including players who may have lied and actually have a rat).

It also seems devastating if any player has 2 Cop cards and plans to use the second tonight.

I assume you meant Kinetic is obv-scum NOT Kast is obv-scum for plaguing?

@DGB, 768-
Lol, good advice (the not getting upset since scum won't say that).

@Ace-
Why is Zwet so suspicious just based on his card choices? It seems to me that Zwet is not really in the spotlight for today.

@ACFan-
Thanks for continuing the game. I am most suspicious of Kinetic and Ort as well, HOWEVER, it seems too...easy...that we find all three scum by Day 2. I definitely think at least one scum is among Ort and Kinetic (Ort more likely).

@Kinetic, 768-
It is possible that Charter (or Kast, or anyone on Budja's wagon) was bussing. However, I don't get that impression about Charter at all. He had opportunities to get on a different wagon, and Budja was far from a sure lynch for most of Day 1. I doubt that Budja's lynch would have happened without Charter's support.

I find it far less likely that Charter choose to bus his scumbuddy than that Charter legitimately believed Budja was scum and lynched him.

I'll grant that it's not proven, definitely not 100%. But I think Charter is probably the closest to a confirmed townie for me (based on his posts, I think it's safe to say he feels the same about me).

Lynching me today before I can prove you wrong would be short sighted when there is a good chance where this can be disproved.

I must have missed something. How are you going to prove this?

@DGB-
Ort is welcome to claim whatever he chooses, but I don't think that has much bearing on any points against him.

[AceMarksman]

Kinetic, I don't like your egging on of the town, daring them to plague you. Apoths do exist, and I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that you've used one on yourself.

FoS Kinetic

One of Zwet's three cards was passed to him. If it were the plague or the rat, then his picks aren't really that suspicious at all.

IIRC, zwet picked rat first. Zwet, what order did you pick your cards. Be honest, as I can ask the player above you for confirmation.

[charter]

kast, no vote?

Also, call me crazy, but what if ort used his "doc" on CTD and Kinetic used his "rat" on CTD?

Yes, ortolan's cards don't matter much, because the case on him is his distancing from Budja yesterday, then jumping on at the last minute.

[Kinetic]

@Kinetic-
-You've danced around this with Charter, but why would you target CTD? You said you suspect there is/was bussing going on, but in that case, there are 6 other players who could have been bussing. Why CTD? It seems...a suboptimal choice at best.

I still haven't read all of Day One. Other obligations (modding my own game, finals week, etc) have kept me from having the time. I really could only skim some of the days events and much of my determination on who might be the bus was based on quickly analyzing the vote counts. I felt CTD could be bussing, and because of the way Plagues are used if I felt otherwise I could announce it today and hope to get an Apoth sent to him.

When he ended up the mafia kill I realized I must have made a mistake, and I announced it plainly because it was useless at this point. I hadn't thought of it then, but now that I think of it now, announcing it later would have been a worse play. Maybe I subconsciously knew that.

-Why would you choose to use a plague right away instead of waiting until Night 2? Clearly you were mistaken about CTD; what made you so confident that he was scum that it was worth trying to kill him?

Although I don't have a lot of Day One posts, I know I addressed this. I felt Plague would be more and more useless the later in the game. I suppose I could have burned my 1/4th NK and then plagued Day 2, but I already stated I planned on Plaguing Night 1 and I went ahead with what I felt was my best choice with limited (granted, self limited) information.

-You are using a straw man against Charter. His point, if you are scum, is not that scum Kinetic used a plague on the same scum NK target. His point, if you are scum, is that you used the NK on CTD and you are lying about using plague on CTD.

I am not strawmanning him, I'm pointing out that my choice makes no sense as scum.

Assuming I haven't used Plague, or that I used it on someone else, is answered later in this post because you asked a more relevant question and I can answer both there.

It is WiFoM to claim that you are a townie since scum would have no reason to claim using plague on CTD.

No. WiFoM assumes that there are relatively equal choices.

There is absolutely no reason to use a Plague on a target that was being planned as the Mafia NK.

I understand if you argue than that I must have not ever had Plague or didn't use it yet, but there is very very very little to gain using a delayed kill on a targeted kill, and much more to lose (not the least of which is another kill). I can at least disprove half of that tomorrow.

-Please explain your comment from Day 1 to populartajo that you agree with him that Kast is probably a townie, but also that you are happy to leave your vote on Kast?

Talking in the third person now? lol

Basically I was starting to get very encumbered by my daily activities. I was still annoyed with you, but I didn't want to throw my vote out willynilly at anyone. I left my vote there because I felt there was very little chance of you being lynched and felt it was relatively safe.

Although you'll have to take my word on it, if you indeed came up to being lynched I would have unvoted and read the case and revoted if I felt you deserved to be lynched. My vote was far from concrete in any terms.

@Kinetic-
-Why did you claim to have targetted CTD with your plague? I don't see a strong motivation for either scum OR town to do so. I don't recall anyone calling for you to claim your night actions; if you are a townie, then you have just let scum know that they don't have to worry about being plagued by you. If you were attempting to "trick" scum, just FYI, I absolutely would not believe it if we entered Day 3 and a townie died to plague and you suddenly reversed your position and claimed you were attempting to trick scum (that would probably lead to your lynch).

I already addressed this to the best of my ability multiple times. I don't exactly understand what you expect me to say. There isn't some major meta reasons, or anything else. I had to make a choice and I made it. It was a poor choice, but bad does not equal scum.

There is no trick. I wasted my plague. I'm not going to claim any kills because none of them are mine.

@Kinetic-
Read Budja in context not isolation. Much of the reason for suspecting Budja was because of the context.

I plan to, I seriously haven't had a lot of time but I don't want to skate on my commitments. I was a quick look to read him in isolation and I hoped it might give me some more information. It didn't.

Reading him in context will take a lot longer unfortunately.

@Kinetic, 768-
It is possible that Charter (or Kast, or anyone on Budja's wagon) was bussing. However, I don't get that impression about Charter at all. He had opportunities to get on a different wagon, and Budja was far from a sure lynch for most of Day 1. I doubt that Budja's lynch would have happened without Charter's support.

My feelings from this come more from another game and my personal feelings. (See War in Heaven, Large Theme). Multiple players claimed credit for a day 1 scum lynch and then used that as a mandate to then lynch something like 10 townies in a row.

I also personally feel that sort of personal chest pounding is a useless activity which doesn't accomplish anything. If you did good, great, but it doesn't mean anything if you cannot repeat it. It only means that you got lucky.

If you can do it again, or do it consistently I'll be impressed. Until then it is just useless posturing and abhor it.

Lynching me today before I can prove you wrong would be short sighted when there is a good chance where this can be disproved.

I must have missed something. How are you going to prove this?

Again, as I said, I cannot disprove everything, and even the things I can prove will never be 100% (few things in this game ever are), but some points can be, I suppose reinforced is a better word, in Day 3 and Day 4 with the kills that will (or won't, as I know) come in.

At the very least it can be proven that I didn't target anyone else with plague on Day 1.

It cannot be proven that I used plague on day 1 (only a kill could do that), or that I didn't use it on Day 2 (at least not until Day 4), or that I didn't dust the plague card (which, ironically, can never be proven since the Plague I drew was from my personal pile).