Mini #764: Notre Dame Mafia, Game Over

[CrashTextDummie]

DGB replaced KidIcarus, FYI, ortolan. ZEEnon is still MIA.

I liked ortolan's case against DGB a whole lot, but I disagree with some of his conclusions. DGB has been known to be staunchly anti-bussing when she's scum, and I would expect her to behave exactly the way she does if she was scum with Budja. In this scenario, Zwetschenwasser would be the townie she's defending to garner town-points. AceMarkman and charter would be townies she tries to get lynched. Her second buddy would be someone she placed in "the middle of the pack" or someone she didn't bother to mention at all. ZEEnon/slicey, anyone?

Individually, I still find AceMarkman scummy. But the various group dynamics and voting behaviours make me waver. I'm pretty sure based on his own play and the people that are voting for him that charter is a townie being run up. I'm liking my Budja vote more and more the longer the day goes on - Zwetschenwasser made an excellent observation when he called him out for dropping the ABR vote as soon as he requested replacement. He left that vote (which was rather unemphatic to begin with, I might add) there until one day before deadline (before it was extended), didn't seem to be in a hurry to move it, then dropped it as soon as ABR left the game. That's not the behaviour of a pro-town player.

I'll be back with more.

[DrippingGoofball]

Apparently I just jumped over 5 players on your suspicions list.

Yeah, that happens. I trust the reactions I experience

in situ

more than the ones I read about

post hoc

.

[DrippingGoofball]

You should have seen the WIHII postgame discussion. DGB got majorly pissed off at ABR for the reasons she wrote earlier.

You're confusing ABR with TSQ in Medieval. I can't be mad at ABR in WIH, because he played the game until his role was over, like an adult. Also, I was scum, and when I'm scum I tend to pick on poor innocent townies and be unreasonable out of necessity. Sometimes that can be a little bruising for the townie. So I don't begrudge him that.

[AceMarksman]

This one needs its own special post:

Because of DGB's post I really do not want Budja lynched.

Seriously? Because you've been saying he's scum. I've been defending Budja. So if you think Budja will flip scum, you could really shut me up. Then I'd look terrible for defending a scumbag. So why would you not want to lynch Budja, all of a sudden?

It leaves the door open, if he flips town, for DGB to gain townpoints for having defended him.

But again, you think Budja is scum, right? So wouldn't I be more likely, by your calculations, to get scumcred for having defended a scumbag?

It is still quite plausible he is town- his constant "having it both ways" may be consistent with his playstyle.

Aw, now you're backing up.

Ortolan knows Budja will flip town.

The vacated ABR slot won't get any traction. The more direct interactions I have with charter, the more he leans town. Ace is a bit of a toss up.

Now, at last a vote I really, really like.

vote: ortolan

I have some problems with this post.

1) ort was high on your town list, yet you turn around and vote him?
2)Said vote seems rather OMGUS.
3) "ortolan knows Budja will flip town". a) this is baseless. b)you yourself defended budja. Doesn't this mean you think he will flip town?


Your switching votes at a drop of a hat is bothering me, so:

Unvote, Vote: DGB

[DrippingGoofball]

I have some problems with this post.

1) ort was high on your town list, yet you turn around and vote him?

Yes. He

was

. Based on reading interactions that I did not personally participate in.

2)Said vote seems rather OMGUS.

That would be true if my vote was not justified by the arguments that accompanied my vote.

3) "ortolan knows Budja will flip town". a) this is baseless.

No, it's not baseless at all. Have you read the post?

b)you yourself defended budja. Doesn't this mean you think he will flip town?

Indeed I do think he will flip town. But if you look carefully, ortolan was pushing for Budja to DIE, until he took a step back, and decided that Budja flipping town would be too high a price to pay in terms of town cred for me, and scum dirt on him. So he's making all these calculations that depend on Budja flipping scum... then based on these calculations, he wants Budja to LIVE, and LYNCH me instead. Calculations based on Budja being scum. Do you get it now? Then in the same breath, he backtracks and decides Budja isn't scum after all... and still his calcuations hold? Is your thinking cap on?

Stop thinking in terms of wikitells and use your mind. Ortolan's post was the biggest bombshell in the whole game.

BTW, you also switched vote at the drop of a hat, should it bother me?

[AceMarksman]

That would be true if my vote was not justified by the arguments that accompanied my vote.

This can be argued.

No, it's not baseless at all. Have you read the post?

Au Contrare, mon ami, I have read the post and I feel it is baseless.

Indeed I do think he will flip town. But if you look carefully, ortolan was pushing for Budja to DIE, until he took a step back, and decided that Budja flipping town would be too high a price to pay in terms of town cred for me, and scum dirt on him. So he's making all these calculations that depend on Budja flipping scum... then based on these calculations, he wants Budja to LIVE, and LYNCH me instead. Calculations based on Budja being scum. Do you get it now? Then in the same breath, he backtracks and decides Budja isn't scum after all... and still his calcuations hold? Is your thinking cap on?

This summary is painting ort's post in the worst possible light.

BTW, you also switched vote at the drop of a hat, should it bother me?

Um, I've been calling you out for votehopping for the past few posts. I would not call that "at the drop of a hat".

[zwetschenwasser]

AND WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH DGB VOTEHOPPING?

[ortolan]

I liked ortolan's case against DGB a whole lot, but I disagree with some of his conclusions. DGB has been known to be staunchly anti-bussing when she's scum, and I would expect her to behave exactly the way she does if she was scum with Budja.

Yes, sorry, I should have been clearer but got lost in the hypothesis Budja was actually town being defended for townpoints. I find it quite viable she is scum with him also, and that relates to the way I found her list wierd because some of the players seemed reversed. She may have put Budja near the back simply to get him out of harm's way,

or

because he is town (I'm not sure how blatant she'd be happy to be with a scumbuddy- she might have thought charter was going to be run up at that point and so she could afford to start taking some heat off Budja).

[zwetschenwasser]

DGB's insanity so far actually makes her seem town to me.

[Budja]

Interesting DGB. But Ort has never been strongly for my lynch, so I would not consider it a notable change in behaviour for him to say I was "possibly innocent".

vote: Rishi

Longish fluff posts with little information, active lurking and scant scumhunting.

[zwetschenwasser]

Ort is also town.

[petroleumjelly]

ZEEnon has been prodded once more. At this rate I may need to extend the deadline again, but this day definitely needs to be over soon.

[AceMarksman]

To those who aren't voting: See? even the

mod

wants you to vote.

[charter]

Interesting DGB. But Ort has never been strongly for my lynch, so I would not consider it a notable change in behaviour for him to say I was "possibly innocent".

vote: Rishi

Longish fluff posts with little information, active lurking and scant scumhunting.

I feel all this applies to Budja, Ace, and zwet except maybe not as long as Rishi's posts.

[AceMarksman]

charter, do you have to turn

everything

into an attack Budja/me/zwet/Rishi all the time?

[charter]

Well, first off, I was pointing out the hypocracy of Budja's post. Second, I don't really find Rishi very suspicious. Third zwet is probably not scum. Fourth, that wasn't an attack, merely an observation. Those aren't very good reasons for voting someone when there's about a million scummier things that have happened, and I am wondering why he picks Rishi, someone that I don't think anyone suspects. It looks like he's, once again, going out of his way to be noncommital, which is a fairly large reason why he needs to be lynched.

[Budja]

So I have to pick a popular bandwagon do I?
Placing a vote isn't noncommittal just because I didn't pick a high profile target.

[Kast]

Just scanned things, I may not get a chance to check in tomorrow since things are absolutely nuts at work. If I don't, I'll definitely check in on Monday morning.

-First, I like my vote where it is. I am especially suspicious of Budja's recent posts; he throws an almost random vote on a semi-lurking player with no traction. 541 is ridiculous. If the vote on Rishi is serious and intends to get Rishi lynched, then where is the case or evidence or arguments to get that done? If it's to pressure Rishi into contributing, sorry, but that's not going to be at all effective. You could at least ask Rishi to discuss something with the vote. I don't really see my vote changing unless I need to do so to secure a lynch come Monday.

-DGB seemed reasonable at first. Some disagreements, but on the whole sensible and seemed to be trying to share thoughts and get others to do the same. Recent posts, DGB seems to have gone crazy and isn't giving much explanation.

It's hard seeing DGB as a replacement of KidIcarus. I would like people (including DGB) to re-read KidIcarus, particularly http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 78#1569578, 1, and 7. He does a complete 180 twice in two posts, he denies doing so, and he tries to wagon using Zwet as an authority/excuse (when Zwet wasn't saying what he pretended that Zwet was saying). None of this involves explanations, and most of this involves tying himself to someone else's post. Posts in between are pretty much no-content active lurking.

After I start pressuring him he responds, but once I relax the pressure he disappears. Then never comes back.

I didn't want to force DGB to explain KidIcarus, because if that is a townie, KidIcarus is probably the only person who could explain it.

But I do want others to post thoughts on it (I think Ort is the only one who actually commented, but only commented about the lurking and not about the rest).

-Ort, you completely ignored my post =(. Also, I don't like how you've been saying you are suspicious of Budja, but the votes don't come and now it seems like you're abandoning and claiming you just disagreed with him but didn't think him scum. My understanding of you was that Budja and AM are both most likely scum (AM more so, but Budja number 2).

I disagree with DGB's conclusion that Ort's reluctance to lynch Budja indicates that Budja is a townie. Assuming that DGB's argument for Ort-scum being reluctant to lynch Budja-town are valid, Ort-scum would ALSO not want to lynch Budja-scum. I think that if Ort is scum, then the latter is the more likely reason for not wanting to lynch.

-I have liked Charter's recent posts a lot more than what he was posting in early game (his response when I pointed out the problem with ending the day early struck me as VERY sincere). His arguments with AM still seem mired in confirmation bias. I am still okay with Charter's lynch (and prefer it to no lynch), but he is significantly below Budja at this point.

I don't like that his defense against the legitimate points brought against him has been practically non-existent; "I changed my mind" or "I don't want to argue." It is also a bit annoying that he is willing to spend time on AM's ridiculous arguments but not on the legitimate ones.

-I still think AM is probable town. I agree that his reasoning and arguments need a lot of work, but I don't think they are indicative of scum alignment. His behavior is extremely similar to my previous game with him. Given that I don't think he is scum, I would only really consider lynching him if he was being extremely anti-town AND there were no players who actually do appear to be scum.

Lynching should be done to kill suspected scum as the major priority, with information after, and policy last. If AM is just a townie with some poor play (which is what I think is the case), neither of the top two factors are served by his lynch.

-I disagree with CTD on a bunch of things, but I like that he is giving reasons and committing himself to his beliefs (and being consistent with them).

-Where is Kinetic? He's been active in the other game that I'm playing with him.

Also, I think only Charter and AM (and maybe Ort?) have commented on this. Either a guaranteed denial of one NK, OR guaranteed capture of at least one scum, OR BOTH. Comment please. I strongly believe that scum want to keep ignoring this. I don't see ANY townie motivation for doing the same. I know you can't all be scum, but jeez...

NK DISTRIBUTION PLAN

ALL PLAYERS OTHER THAN CHARTER/KAST/DGB/KINETIC WILL PASS FUTURE NK CARDS TWICE. OUT OF CHARTER/KAST/DGB/KINETIC WE CHOOSE ONE PLAYER AND FOLLOW THIS PASSING SCHEDULE:

CHOOSE CHARTER
-CHARTER KEEPS HIS CARD
-KAST PASSES TO DGB
-KINETIC PASSES TWICE
CHOOSE KAST
-CHARTER PASSES TO DGB
-KAST KEEPS HIS CARD
-KINETIC PASSES TWICE
OR
-CHARTER PASSES TO KAST
-KAST PASSES TO DGB
-KINETIC PASSES TWICE
CHOOSE DGB
-CHARTER PASSES TO DGB
-KAST PASSES TO DGB
-KINETIC PASSES TWICE
CHOOSE KINETIC
-CHARTER PASSES TO DGB
-KAST PASSES TO KINETIC
-KINETIC PASSES TWICE

THIS PLAN GUARANTEES CAPTURE OF SCUM IF THEY ATTEMPT TO GAIN A BONUS NK AND LIMITS THEM TO AT MOST ONE BONUS NK.

[charter]

I don't like that his defense against the legitimate points brought against him has been practically non-existent; "I changed my mind" or "I don't want to argue." It is also a bit annoying that he is willing to spend time on AM's ridiculous arguments but not on the legitimate ones.

I can take another look if you want, but the reason is because Ace keeps coming back, time and time again, trying to get anything to stick. You and Rishi gave your reasons, I gave my explanation, and I don't really know where to go any further from there. You're not twisting every post I make like Ace is. You're either willing to lynch me over that or not (and it seems that you and Rishi are) so I feel the best thing I can do after I've explained myself is to do scumhunting.

[ZEEnon]

I'm sorry, really busy IRL.
I'm informing you that I possess a NK card, as well as a rat card.
I will provide a PBPA as soon as possible.

[AceMarksman]

Charter: my vote is on DGB, which kinda invalidtates this part of your most recent post.

but the reason is because Ace keeps coming back, time and time again, trying to get anything to stick

[zwetschenwasser]

You can be suspicious of more than one person at a time.

[Rishi]

Interesting DGB. But Ort has never been strongly for my lynch, so I would not consider it a notable change in behaviour for him to say I was "possibly innocent".

vote: Rishi

Longish fluff posts with little information, active lurking and scant scumhunting.

Weak. How is this different from the way that you're playing? And what's making you single me out as opposed to ZEEnon.

By the way guys, I might be around a little bit today, but I am essentially V/LA until Sunday.

[charter]

Charter: my vote is on DGB, which kinda invalidtates this part of your most recent post.

but the reason is because Ace keeps coming back, time and time again, trying to get anything to stick

That's pretty bad when zwet sets you straight.

[AceMarksman]

It's pretty bad when you're guilty of something you're accusing me of. You're just throwing dirt, hoping something will stick. Honestly, you can point out when someone is right, but don't take such an elitest attitude about it, and DO NOT put down either me OR zwet just for your own personal enjoyment.