Mini #764: Notre Dame Mafia, Game Over

[DrippingGoofball]

11 rubs me wrong. In it, he completely evades the direct, obvious, and contextual meaning of AM's post so that he can question/suspect AM (but then drops this with nary a word). He also clarifies that he did not actually agree with Zwet's comment, but had a completely different reason for calling AM scummy over the "slip". I find this very suspicious and looks like he was just saying he agreed with Zwet without actually meaning it.

12 attempts to evade this discrepancy between his claim to agree with Zwet, and actually giving a completely different reason.

24 uses straw men to argue against my suggestion that Zwet first Double, then Plague. He also chooses to go with an ineffective policy vote right before going V/LA.

I'm really not seeing this as scummy, especially compared to other players that have behaved far scummier, ABR comes to mind.

I think Charter was pretty clearly implying that he thinks Zwet+DGB will vote together with scum and are effectively traitors. 3 mafia+Zwet+DGB = 5 mafia. 5/12 means the town is in LYLO. Charter, feel free to correct me if I misunderstood that. I think it is pretty much craplogic, but then, I think he wasn't intending that to be rational and more an expression of frustration.

I never would have guessed this, but you're probably right. It's not because I find it ridiculously easy to pin down zwet's alignment that I'm going to trust his scumdar and vote with him, nor is he likely to vote with me, either.

Now that you mention this, I think it would annoy charter mostly if charter was scum, and feared that I might tunnel on him, and with zwet in tow, act like a double voter.

Failing an ABR/replacement lynch, I'd lynch charter way ahead of Budja.

[zwetschenwasser]

Um... Budja was the one who did the ultrascummy flipflop voting, and never responded when I called him out on it.

[Budja]

You mean my recent unvote?

1. I haven't been online since you "called me out".
2. I vote, I find additional info out of game, I am uncertain, I unvote. I will still definitely be watching ABR's replacement but I don't feel that a vote is still necessary. No flipfloping.

Wrong zwet, on both cases.

[zwetschenwasser]

No.

[DrippingGoofball]

I might as well vote at this point.

unvote, vote: charter

[charter]

-I think Charter was pretty clearly implying that he thinks Zwet+DGB will vote together with scum and are effectively traitors. 3 mafia+Zwet+DGB = 5 mafia. 5/12 means the town is in LYLO. Charter, feel free to correct me if I misunderstood that. I think it is pretty much craplogic, but then, I think he wasn't intending that to be rational and more an expression of frustration

Yes, you are correct. However, I don't think it's quite this bad yet. I don't actually believe both DGB and Zwet are town. That initial statement was a hypothetical, but I think DGB is scum. I really haven't seen anything scummy of zwet for a long while now and I see DGB goading him on. Also, part of my wanting to rush a lynch on Budja or Ace is because we don't know who the other replacement is. ABR was most likely town (by process of elimination, since Ace and Budja are assuridly scum), but if some idiot replaces him (though you could make a strong case ABR was being one), then we could be right back at LYLO. If the replacement is another bonus mafia member, then that hurts us even worse. This is a pretty bad reason I admit, and most of my reason is I don't want to be lynched, especially if it's going to be a piss poor one like it is right now.
Kast, how come you aren't asking any of them for cases on me? Nearly all the votes on me have non-existant, or weak cases. Last game we were in, I was scum and I did the exact same thing. I urge you not to fall into this trap again.

I will help you with this. What do you make of Ace telling me not to use appeals to emotion but doing it himself? Of his ignoring my pointing this out? Of sweeping legitimate arguments under the rug? Of still not answering Ort's question which showed that Ace's reason for wanting to lynch me is completely invalid?

I pose these questions to everyone.

EVERYONE PLEASE COMMENT ON MY NK DISTRIBUTION PLAN. IF YOU AGREE WITH IT, PLEASE SHARE YOUR PREFERRED METHOD OF PICKING A "CHOSEN" PLAYER (RANDOM/VOTE/OTHER?).

Which post is this? Because I don't rememeber it.

@Charter-
It only takes 4 votes to lynch. I can understand your desire to get people to vote for Budja or AM so that you are not the top lynch candidate. I can't understand your desire to end the day with 5 days still to go and replacements in and on their way in.

I understand that you want the most info possible, but consider this. I get lynched well ahead of deadline. I flip town, now you see who was eager to pile another vote on me, who was just very indecisive, who drove my lynch. A lynch occuring at deadline, especially one where there isn't a majority of town (7 votes here) is so hurtful to town, that it's incredibly difficult to recover. If you actually want me lynched more than Budja, then you need to vote me and be held accountable rather than keep your vote on Budjascum while a townie gets lynched (though normally if you were scum doing it, you would be saying very weakly you don't approve of the charter lynch, which you're not doing, so it looks kind of town). A deadline lynch with just four votes here is just unacceptable. It really doesn't matter to me if lynch happens ten minutes from now, or ten minutes before deadline, 21 pages is more than enough information for day one. (I'm not looking to debate this with you, I'm not going to change my mind on this matter, in the interest of not encouraging novels being written)

[DrippingGoofball]

Excellent.

unvote, vote: Ace

[Kast]

To be clear, I don't think ZEEnon or Kinetic have provided good/valid reasons for their votes. I would like them to do so. They both appear to be lurking/inactive right now. I don't think pressure on either of them is liable to change this.

I want to see Budja place a meaningful vote.

I would also like Ortolan to update his position. Please restate the reasons for preferring AM over Budja.

@Charter-
Overall, I am fine with lynching you, although I think Budja is a bit more likely to be scum than you. I think it is entirely possible that you are both scum. For specific players and their arguments:

-I think Rishi has a valid point against you.
-I can understand AM as a townie voting for you with the haphazard case he is pushing. I have chimed in on points that I thought were terrible (AM has posted a lot, and I haven't touched on everything).
-ZEEnon does not have a stated reason for voting you.
-I actually can't tell if Zwet's vote on you is serious. I do think his "!!! Scumclaim?" reason is BS.
-DGB voted you then stopped; I can understand DGB voting you, though I'd like to know the reasons for stopping (for now it seems a response to something you said in your post). I'd also like to know if DGB's unvote means she no longer considers you suspicious, or just that AM is more suspicious (or something else?). Right now, it is ambiguous.

-I just finished a game with AM, and he is playing extremely similarly to his play in that game. While he is using a lot of poor arguments and has pushed positions that I feel are anti-town, all of it seems consistent with my meta understanding of him, and absent that is just as easily explained by him being a newer townie player as him being scum. I don't think he is scum.

I also think that your recent exchanges with him don't contain nearly as much suspicious material as either of you are claiming, and I think strongly demonstrate confirmation bias in each of you towards each other.

-If we lynch you now and enter night prior to finding a replacement, then ABR's cards will be selected/passed randomly. This is EXTREMELY anti-town, MUCH more so than having our Day 1 lynch determined by only 5 or 6 players instead of 7.

If you are scum, I am willing to take the risk of not joining your bandwagon and appearing to be a possible scumbuddy. If you are a townie, then it would be a bad idea for me to vote for you. That reasoning applies to the present case.

If we approach deadline and it looks like I have to vote for you to secure one of my preferred lynches (ie. everyone unvotes Budja and all but 3 unvote you), I will do so. I will likewise change my vote to best serve the current situation.

-I am mildly paranoid that your last post is a scum attempt to set me up so that if you are lynched, you will flip scum and one of your buddies (or even a townie) can jump out and claim that you were directing your scum buddy.

@DGB-
-Please explain the change in vote. AM does have a lot of scumpoints in your list, but does this reflect a relative, small change between Charter and AM? Does this reflect an absolution of suspicion against Charter? Does this reflect a large increase in suspicion of AM (and if so please explain reasons)?

-One odd point about your list; CTD and Kast have more townpoints and less scumpoints than Ortolan, but are both higher on the list. Please explain.

NK DISTRIBUTION PLAN

ALL PLAYERS OTHER THAN CHARTER/KAST/DGB/KINETIC WILL PASS FUTURE NK CARDS TWICE. OUT OF CHARTER/KAST/DGB/KINETIC WE CHOOSE ONE PLAYER AND FOLLOW THIS PASSING SCHEDULE:

CHOOSE CHARTER

-CHARTER KEEPS HIS CARD
-KAST PASSES TO DGB
-KINETIC PASSES TWICE

CHOOSE KAST

-CHARTER PASSES TO DGB
-KAST KEEPS HIS CARD
-KINETIC PASSES TWICE
OR
-CHARTER PASSES TO KAST
-KAST PASSES TO DGB
-KINETIC PASSES TWICE

CHOOSE DGB

-CHARTER PASSES TO DGB
-KAST PASSES TO DGB
-KINETIC PASSES TWICE

CHOOSE KINETIC

-CHARTER PASSES TO DGB
-KAST PASSES TO KINETIC
-KINETIC PASSES TWICE

THIS PLAN GUARANTEES CAPTURE OF SCUM IF THEY ATTEMPT TO GAIN A BONUS NK AND LIMITS THEM TO AT MOST ONE BONUS NK.

[zwetschenwasser]

Kast, my charter vote was completely serious, as his post wording completely exploded my scumdar.

[charter]

-I just finished a game with AM, and he is playing extremely similarly to his play in that game. While he is using a lot of poor arguments and has pushed positions that I feel are anti-town, all of it seems consistent with my meta understanding of him, and absent that is just as easily explained by him being a newer townie player as him being scum. I don't think he is scum.

If you let someone use poor arguments and push antitown positions as town, then you open the door wide open for him to do it as scum and get away with it. I don't think you should cut someone slack because they are a poor player.

-If we lynch you now and enter night prior to finding a replacement, then ABR's cards will be selected/passed randomly. This is EXTREMELY anti-town, MUCH more so than having our Day 1 lynch determined by only 5 or 6 players instead of 7.

I had not considered this. You're right, we shouldn't lynch until after a replacement is found.

Your plan seems fine to me, I'd pick the one that will give concrete proof DGB is scum.

kast, you find none of this scummy, even a little bit?

What do you make of Ace telling me not to use appeals to emotion but doing it himself? Of his ignoring my pointing this out? Of sweeping legitimate arguments under the rug? Of still not answering Ort's question which showed that Ace's reason for wanting to lynch me is completely invalid?

I can understand thinking nothing of the first three questions, but you see nothing wrong with the fourth question?

Kast, my charter vote was completely serious, as his post wording completely exploded my scumdar.

Your scumdar is more broken than Hiroshima after being nuked.

[DrippingGoofball]

Gah! charter makes the needle on my scumdar swing to the right, swing to the left, swing to the right... I want to vote him again.

[AceMarksman]

DGB, why were you so quick to vote me after charter's post, and then just as quick to show intrest in reapplying said vote?

[charter]

THE SOONER YOU JUST IGNORE HER ACTIONS AND CONCENTRATE ON THE REST OF THE PLAYERS THAT LIVE IN A WORLD WHERE UP IS UP AND BLUE IS BLUE, THE SOONER YOU CAN CONTINUE FINDING SCUM.

[AceMarksman]

^the above does not help my scum view of charter :/.

[charter]

I've given up trying to convince you or zwet or DGB of anything that makes sense to a townie. I'm just going to accept your votes for me and work on convince six others to lynch you or Budja.

[DrippingGoofball]

Now I think charter is town again.

[DrippingGoofball]

I mean, my top choice really is ABR's vacated player slot...

[AceMarksman]

You think charter is town... because he's given up? What? >>;;

[DrippingGoofball]

You think charter is town... because he's given up? What? >>;;

It's not the "what" it's the "how."

There's no rush to lynch, since we're awaiting replacements. I hope to see a larger sample of charter to enable me to be more firm/consistent in my read.

unvote

[ortolan]

charter still feels town

423 concords mostly with my thoughts

Ort, as far as the apothecary stuff goes, don't scum have to use it on the night they would be killed?

Not sure I understand the question. In order to not die from being plagued, one has to be apothecaried either before they are plagued, on the night they are plagued, or the night after they are plagued.

Oh, I completely forgot about them (mainly because we haven't heard much from them) but zEEnon's vote is from the RVS, no?

No, it wasn't. See post 341. So, assuming Rishi's and zEEnon's votes (on charter) stayed in the same place they were when you made this post, would you have found them likely to be charter's scumbuddies if he flipped scum (i.e. they're busing him), or would you find them likely to be town? I don't like any of the attacks against charter in 424 really.

Of course I don't. I don't believe Ace is scum, therefore for me to join him wagon would be seeking a mislynch for me (from my perspective). In hindsight, this comment is only good for me if you don't believe both Ace and I to be scum.

(Although I think I will have to finish reading AM properly before I can say if he is still town to me).

Here you state you don't believe AM is scum, implying he is town, then state you're unsure about him. Having your cake and eating it too?

It is your opinion that the post was not scummy. An overreaction to a very minor situation like Ace's comes off scummy to me. I have seen scum overreact simulary before and that was I initially thought it could be suss.

I maintain that neither your reasons for suspecting him nor your reasons for clearing him were valid.

I've thought about it and, as much as I don't like it, my lynch will give the town the most information. Is this the only reason for my lynch in your eyes, ort?

I hope you're not serious. See posts 384 and 396. They are so extensive in their reasoning for lynching you that Rishi actually complained about their length.

I just found another thread on the forum showing ABR's "love" of zwet. It seems clear to me now that this vendetta is not just an in-game thing so it is unlikely to be the potentual scum move I was suspecting. That said, I wish you would get over it and just play.

That's part of the problem. All he was doing is pursuing his agenda against zwet, which he would do regardless of alignment (as it exists outsideany individual mafia game also). This prevents us getting a read on him, and this fact is reason alone to suspect/pressure him.

I find AM's behaviour very defensive. The attack on charter was illogical and defence on me was odd to say the least. The biggest thing with AM is that he appears to be trying to look helpful, as the generic questions above show. Maybe I am thinking in circles but he seems too obvious and open to be scum.

The first three sentences are reasons he is scummy. The last is an unexplained opinion that he is in fact town. The three sentences you gave as reasons for his scumminess just aren't easily explainable as simply bad townie play. Especially "trying to look helpful with generic questions", that's scummy in the extreme.

The exchange in 436 437 and 438 is quite viably between scumbuddies.

One thing I feel I should adress because it's of utmost concern for the upcoming lynch is the idea of "lynching to gather information" that AceMarkman has been arguing for. This is complete crap. We are lynching to kill scum, and nothing but. For AceMarkman to argue against his own lynch because of a supposed lack of information to be had

The ironic thing is I actually comprehensively argued for why his lynch is optimal both because his behaviour's been highly scummy and because his lynch will provide a great deal of information.

@ 456 onwards: DGB is a strong contender for being scum.

- I don't like the way her list is vaguely similar to mine but with some players entirely reversed. I disagree with her top two scum suspects (ABR is neutral, charter is town) and don't possibly see how she could be so sure of Budja being innocent (or zwet for that matter, not that I've seen anything scummy from him).

- I don't like her top two suspects being people she has claimed history with (with ABR it's obvious from the fact he replaced out/what I've read and charter's claim in 471 illustrates there's some history there also). As such this, like ABR's attack on zwet could merely be a way of hiding her scumminess (hoping people will write this off as a personal vendetta clouding her judgment if she gets either of them lynched and they flip town).

- I don't like the way her list starts out calling AM very very scummy but gradually brings his ranking round with "townpoints" so that he ultimately lies after ABR and charter.

- I don't like several specific quotes:

"I agree that defensive drafting of plague cards is not an anti-town move. I could even understand if a townie took a plague card with the intention to use it as a vigilante." I'm not sure what to think here.
1 scumpoint Kast

Why?

SPECIAL NOTE: Ace, charter and ABR all vote zwet??? Hahaha, scumbags. They're afraid of zwet.

There's several of these. Very good chance DGB is sucking up to zwet in the knowledge he's town (because she's scum).

This from charter is pretty awful: 'ABR has just been useless. Haven't seen anything scummy from him.'
1 scumpoint charter

I wonder why this is awful. It does accord entirely with what I think, for example. ABR's given us nothing but null-tells.

This:

charter's vote on Kast is a little scummy.
1 scumpoint to charter

is highly scummy when you see what she said later:

Another townpoint to Kinetic for post #84. I'm also seeing Kinetic's point that Kast might have been warning his buddies through daytalk.
1 townpoint Kinetic

She gives charter a scumpoint for voting Kast, but later says she can "see" the reasoning for his actions there being scummy.

- I dislike this:

It's the timing of your vote, and the fact that I view Budja as townish, and the people pushing his lynch as scummish.

when you look back and read this:

I like this from ortolan: "My candidates are mainly AM, ABR, Budja and zEEnon at present." - that's very well in line with my observations.
1 townpoint ortolan

So you think I'm townie for suspecting Budja amongst others, but the people pushing Budja's lynch are scummy? You also find me townie for suspecting the person you replaced, and ABR (obviously).

Because of DGB's post I really do not want Budja lynched. It leaves the door open, if he flips town, for DGB to gain townpoints for having defended him. It is still quite plausible he is town- his constant "having it both ways" may be consistent with his playstyle.

I could go for an AM or DGB lynch today.

I will read continue reading, might post some more.

[charter]

Not sure I understand the question. In order to not die from being plagued, one has to be apothecaried either before they are plagued, on the night they are plagued, or the night after they are plagued.

This is what I was wondering, I was unsure if you had to guess the right night to use it, but you don't.

[DrippingGoofball]

- I don't like the way her list is vaguely similar to mine but with some players entirely reversed. I disagree with her top two scum suspects (ABR is neutral, charter is town) and don't possibly see how she could be so sure of Budja being innocent (or zwet for that matter, not that I've seen anything scummy from him).

I absolutely don't see ABR as neutral at all. And again, zwet is so transparent, you know his alignment within the first 5 posts, so roughly 25 words. I'm in a lot of games, which means I'm in a lot of games with zwet.

I don't like her top two suspects being people she has claimed history with (with ABR it's obvious from the fact he replaced out/what I've read and charter's claim in 471 illustrates there's some history there also).

I wished that I could have been able to mend fences with ABR by finding him town, and not bothering him all game. Unfortunately, I believe that hiding behind a policy lynch and not considering any alternative agruments is very scummy.

As for charter... I personally have no history with charter, though clearly he has history with me. But that's complete news to me; and until he made that post, I had no idea that there were any electrons spinning the wrong way between the both of us. I mean, I was scum in the game we played, and he was town. So of course I was obtuse, that's part of fulfilling the wincon. It was absolutely not personal. Go check it for yourself, the game is RagingRabbit's "Really Deep South." There is also another ongoing game, with a similar situation, so that's 2 for 2, me being scum, and charter being town.

- I don't like[blah blah blah]

You may not like it, but that's what I think.

"I agree that defensive drafting of plague cards is not an anti-town move. I could even understand if a townie took a plague card with the intention to use it as a vigilante." I'm not sure what to think here.1 scumpoint Kast

Why?

Something in the wording sounded like it could be manufacturing excuses for scum to take anti-town cards. The point is technically correct. It's a little too strong. But overall I find Kast to be pro-town, so the point is a very small one. When I do these analyses, I don't dismiss a possible scumpoint because I have an earlier town read. After everything is tallied up, then I can look back and say "given everything else, it probably isn't a scumpoint." Don't forget I'm replacing, and analysing old interactions that I wasn't personally involved in.

SPECIAL NOTE: Ace, charter and ABR all vote zwet??? Hahaha, scumbags. They're afraid of zwet.

There's several of these. Very good chance DGB is sucking up to zwet in the knowledge he's town (because she's scum).

Seriously. What's more likely? Ace, charter and ABR being afraid of zwet, or me coming in as replacement, and sucking up to zwet (I mean, really, I don't have to, he can't read me and he's not even trying).

This from charter is pretty awful: 'ABR has just been useless. Haven't seen anything scummy from him.' 1 scumpoint charter

I wonder why this is awful. It does accord entirely with what I think, for example. ABR's given us nothing but null-tells.

The situation reminds me of Medieval Mafia, where TSQ ragequit because I caught him being scum. No one believed me. But TSQ (like ABR) thinks I'm an idiot, and fancy themselves geniuses. They think they're playing a perfect game, fooling me. When TSQ went rabid after zwet, refused to listen to reason, and screamed for a quicklynch, I was pretty sure he was scum. And all the players kept saying, like you do, oh, it's a null-tell, he just doesn't like zwet, blah blah. Although no one supported me, I continued to hound TSQ. And he hated the fact that an idiot like me caught him being scum with retarded scumtells so much, that he quit. And still no one believed me he was scum, because they ascribed his behavior to personal issues. Similarly, I believe that you are all very wrong to ignore strong clues about a player's alignment because these clues are scumtells as spelled out in the wiki.

charter's vote on Kast is a little scummy. 1 scumpoint to charter

is highly scummy when you see what she said later:

Another townpoint to Kinetic for post #84. I'm also seeing Kinetic's point that Kast might have been warning his buddies through daytalk.
1 townpoint Kinetic

She gives charter a scumpoint for voting Kast, but later says she can "see" the reasoning for his actions there being scummy.

I grant you this one, my reading records spontaneous thoughts, and I don't cross check.

It's the timing of your vote, and the fact that I view Budja as townish, and the people pushing his lynch as scummish.

when you look back and read this:

I like this from ortolan: "My candidates are mainly AM, ABR, Budja and zEEnon at present." - that's very well in line with my observations.
1 townpoint ortolan

So you think I'm townie for suspecting Budja amongst others, but the people pushing Budja's lynch are scummy? You also find me townie for suspecting the person you replaced, and ABR (obviously).

Oh nooooooooooo. Wrong. I think you're wrong about Budja. But I thought you were right about Ace and ABR. And I thought you listing ABR was pretty courageous.

[DrippingGoofball]

This one needs its own special post:

Because of DGB's post I really do not want Budja lynched.

Seriously? Because you've been saying he's scum. I've been defending Budja. So if you think Budja will flip scum, you could really shut me up. Then I'd look terrible for defending a scumbag. So why would you not want to lynch Budja, all of a sudden?

It leaves the door open, if he flips town, for DGB to gain townpoints for having defended him.

But again, you think Budja is scum, right? So wouldn't I be more likely, by your calculations, to get scumcred for having defended a scumbag?

It is still quite plausible he is town- his constant "having it both ways" may be consistent with his playstyle.

Aw, now you're backing up.

Ortolan knows Budja will flip town.

The vacated ABR slot won't get any traction. The more direct interactions I have with charter, the more he leans town. Ace is a bit of a toss up.

Now, at last a vote I really, really like.

vote: ortolan

[ortolan]

Apparently I just jumped over 5 players on your suspicions list.

I always stated emphatically I preferred an AM to a Budja lynch. Just because I find someone scummy and critique their play (all of which was valid), it does not guarantee they are scum. Now zEEnon got himself off to a good start with the "I was positive I was replacing scum" comment but it wasn't until you filled his player slot that you managed to accelerate past Budja and pull into pole position alongside AceMarksman. DGB may yet win the race to the noose, stay tuned.

[zwetschenwasser]

You should have seen the WIHII postgame discussion. DGB got majorly pissed off at ABR for the reasons she wrote earlier. I do admit that it is physically impossible for me to get much of a read on DGB, but it is worth noting that she seems remarkably down to earth in this game, something not typical of her usual playstyle.