Mini 737 - Hack Poetry Mafia (Game Over)

[don_johnson]

And the fact that spring CCed a mafia fakeclaim... Anyone starting to think 2 scumteams of 2 yet?

Spring counterclaiming budja in my opinion almost excludes the possibility of two two-man scumteams altogether. If spring were scum with budja on a two person team, she would not cc him on day one and throw him under the bus like that with a doc claim, not knowing anything at all about the makeup of real power roles in the game - a single cautious cop could end the game for her team. Its also very unlikely that spring on a seperate two man scumteam would cc budja, because at that point she has no reason to believe that Budja isn't in fact telling the truth, and if she's on a scum team of two its a safe bet to think there could very well be a second scumteam out there, and why would you sacrafice a member of your own scumteam helping both scumpairs get rid of the doc?

Out of the two claimed power roles, I'm actually much happier believing Spring's claim than don's.

if you are locked into an either/or decision then i can agree with your reasoning, however, i would argue that doc is the most protown role there is and most scum teams will do whatever is necessary to get rid of it. spring was not entirely free of scrutiny on day 1. also, if spring were part of a two man scum team, she wouldn't necessarily be under the impression that another "team" exists. in such a situation, an sk is at least just as likely a possibility as another two person scum team.

that aside, lynching me seems like an unecessary gamble for town at this point.

[Ice9]

that aside, lynching me seems like an unecessary gamble for town at this point.

This much is true, but you and Spring absolutely MUST be targeting one another tonight.

[sekinj]

I know I know. I am here. just a little over whelmed. I'm not trying to stall, just tryign to gather my thoughts. I've posted in other games because they are very short games without many players. I've asked for replacement in my only other 12 person game. But in anycase, I'm glad everyone is hanging on my next words, makes me feel wanted/needed/loved

So here it goes.

first of all... AHHHH!!! NOT OGML!!!

ok. for now I beleive don and spring, but I think the scum MUST have some pretty powerful roles. I also beleive Lynx is town.

that leaves:

Goat

- would have to have been bussing budja from very early on. His interaction with budja and suspicion seem genuine.

Ice

- good day 1 play, no good read on replacements.

RC

- good play and reasoned responses throughout each day

Rhinox

- the biggest thing is the weird play by DO

Spolium

- wishy washy about budja, jumped off saying fake claim was unlikely, then jumped on again quickly when spring countered, gave excuse of "lesson learned"

I know this isn't huge or anything and some of you are goign to be dissapointed, but I went back and looked at each of these players in isolation and this is my verdict.

Vote: Spolium

Mod: can we get a deadline extension? especially given our doc's absence... I, for one, sure would like her input...

[TonyMontana]

Will consider deadline extension. For now, assume deadline is on sunday.

[don_johnson]

i would support an extension. i have relatives visiting this week and it would be nice to have everyone's opinions before deadline.

[Rhinox]

I don't see any reasons why the deadline should be extended. 5 days is more than enough time for all players to give their thoughts, and if there is no concensus by, say, saturday, maybe then we could request to extend the deadline.

[TonyMontana]

I will evaluate the need for extension on saturday, but lack of concensus will not be a factor I'll consider.

[RedCoyote]

RC: Who is your "first pick"?

If I were being honest I'd have to say Goat. I know he dismisses it, and I expect him to, but a case on Goat I think would be understandably thinner than a case on someone else. He hasn't been here when it counted. If I asked you, off the top of your head, to tell me what Goat thought of the spring/don/Jebus situation, what would you say? Would you have to go back and hunt for it? What if I asked you to tell me what his opinion was on sekinj now, or, hell, why he's pushing you? How straight of an answer do you think you could give without having to look back? Goat, I think, is arguably suspicious in that way, that his voice is meek on issues of importance, and louder on issues that mean less. His play, I think, has considerably changed for the worse. I think there are connections that can be made directly to Budja, perhaps not as strong as you or don have, but I could point things out.

That being said, I do and must concede that a large part of my suspicions of Goat comes from his absence, for better or for worse. We both realize this, but I wouldn't say he's worked on fixing that too much. Therein lies the problem, how strong can suspicions be on someone if you don't know whether or not they're just having less time to play the game than they had previously? Nevertheless, although his few contributions are warmly received by me, I can't shake the feeling that Goat is more interested in placating the town then he actually is helping it.

I wouldn't say sekinj is too far behind, nor would I say you are out of the running (pending what Goat may or may not have to say about you). I've made it clear I will not stand in the way of what I think is an acceptable sekinj lynch today, but the way we came to a consensus on sekinj may have been a little awkward.

---

It seems that some wires got crossed in what should have been an obvious and nigh unbeatable circle of town actions - leave only one doctor able to be killed, and have a watcher on that player to force scum to sacrifice a member if they wanted to kill it.

This was discussed at some length toward the end of D2, slightly before the fhq rush lynch. I will find you some specific posts as to what don is referring to if you'd like, but know that the general debate was between this plan, as you said, and taking a little more of a risk and leaving the supposed power roles to determine their own actions.

Although don followed the plan I suggested, the majority of us (including me) chose it would be best not to plan out the night actions beforehand mostly due to the fear that Jebus/don/spring could be fake and end up taking advantage of whatever "hole" there would be in the circle.

If I thought then what I think now (that don/spring/Jebus were/are all real), I would much rather have went for calling out the actions beforehand.

I am still in the process of reading through the thread, but it seems like we should almost definitely be in the business of lynching one of these two today.

Under no circumstances short of an admission of guilt would I support this. I understand why you would think this, but I think it's based off somewhat spotty information about what happened since you left.

---

And the fact that spring CCed a mafia fakeclaim... Anyone starting to think 2 scumteams of 2 yet?

Not completely ruling that out but not too concerned about it (mostly due to the first night NK and the second night only one kill).

All that being the case, then I can't see any way spring wasn't given a town doc role PM, sanity concerns aside.

Agreed. As Ice says later, there is no reason for don and spring not to be seeing each other every night from now on.

---

I don't see any reasons why the deadline should be extended.

Frankly I agree with this as well. I don't see any reason that spring will change her mind, and the people who have votes that matter have more than enough time to make their decision.

I think the only reason I would support a deadline extension is if Goat had good reason for choosing Spolium over sekinj.

[Ice9]

If there were a hole in the circle being exploited by scum, it would have become clear based on what happened which of the claims were fake. As it is, leaving the power roles to their own discretion left Jebus unprotected and unwatched, and we come to today still knowing nothing for certain about the alignments of either remaining claimed player and with one dead doctor.

If Spring and don target one another tonight, then one of three things will happen - don will die, outing spring as a liar, spring will die, and in the process don will either catch a scum in the act or be caught as a liar, or neither will die and the mafia will leave a potentially deadly combination of doc/watcher alive to mess with them on future nights. I am all but certain that they are not both mafia, so if one of them is, then in order to keep their cover they must leave the true power role alive, and if neither of them is mafia, the scum must either sacrifice a member to get rid of them or leave them both alive.

The worst case outcome of this is that don is mafia, spring dies and he drops a fake result, causing a mislynch, but even this would still leave don to be lynched with five players alive, making for a winnable three man endgame.

If either Spring or don refuses to participate in the cross targeting, we just lynch them.

Can somebody give me a short and sweet version of the case against sekinj? I'd like to know why she's the most viable lynch at this point, and the deadline looms.

[sekinj]

not enough scumhunting and I was arguing with spring.

[Lynx The Antithesis]

Right now I'm taking a page from RC's book and using process of elimination to catch scum. While this is probably not the most efficient way to find scum, I feel theres really not too many points against anyone. I've narrowed it down to Don, Spolium, and Sekinj today. Don's claim still worries me, but I'm hesitant to lynch him if we possibly do have a powerful combination of watcher and Spring. Spolium has gone up and down for me. One moment I'll find him scummy and the next he'll bounce right back with a pro-town post. Lastly Sekinj has been lacking in any real signs of scumhunting. She hasn't really expressed many suspicions or stances before post 927. I don't mind the arguing with Spring so much.

I think Spring, RC, and Rhinox are town. I felt Goat was extremely pro-town 1 as well and I chalk his recent play up more to inactivity than scumminess.I don't see any case on him really. I read Ice pro-town off his interactions with Budja, but there isn't much else to go off of on him so far. His replacements contributed nothing to the game. Hopefully more of a read will be gained through his return to the game.

All in all I'm happy with a Sekinj lynch right now. Don as my second choice and Spolium a distant third.

[Rhinox]

"Rhinox - the biggest thing is the weird play by DO" - Sekinj, can you clarify what you meant by this?

If there were a hole in the circle being exploited by scum, it would have become clear based on what happened which of the claims were fake. As it is, leaving the power roles to their own discretion left Jebus unprotected and unwatched, and we come to today still knowing nothing for certain about the alignments of either remaining claimed player and with one dead doctor.

Which brings me to my earlier point - how did scum know it was going to be safe to hit jebus? There was only a 25% chance of a successful, unwatched hit by picking any of the 3 claimed power roles - was it just luck? Did scum assume spring had the best chance of acting on his own? Or did scum have inside information? Inside information would have to point to spring being scum, but recent conversation convinces me that I'd have to believe quite the conspiracy to justify calling spring scum right now. Problem is, I'm also having a hard time believing it was just luck.

Can somebody give me a short and sweet version of the case against sekinj? I'd like to know why she's the most viable lynch at this point, and the deadline looms.

I've prepared a summary of my reasons for my vote on sekinj, and I'll post them after sekinj answers my question at the top of this post.

[sekinj]

DO wanting to lynch spring. That was the only thing from your character that stood out to me. I think it was just a bored alt, but it is worth remembering.

[sekinj]

Mod: VC please. Am I at L-1?

[TonyMontana]

Pretty sure you are.

Temporary VC:
Sekjin: L-1

[sekinj]

So... Is anyone going to back off? Or am I going to have to claim....

[don_johnson]

So... Is anyone going to back off? Or am I going to have to claim....

unvote

i think a claim would be appropriate.

[Lynx The Antithesis]

So... Is anyone going to back off? Or am I going to have to claim....

unvote

i think a claim would be appropriate.

agreed

[sekinj]

i'm your cop.
that's why I know Lynx is town, and why I think we have a godfather (unless Lynx is the godfather).

[Lynx The Antithesis]

i'm your cop.
that's why I know Lynx is town, and why I think we have a godfather (unless Lynx is the godfather).

There were two nights. You should have two investigations. Why do you only have one? Also why did you choose to investigate me?

[RedCoyote]

As Lynx said, we need to know who Plonky investigated, the Mod should've given you that information. We also need to know why it was you chose Lynx.

What I tried to do was break up what sekinj said this game into different sections. Some quotes are posted twice because they deal with multiple issues (e.g. list of suspects/specific person), and some quotes are split up (e.g. first half in one section, second half in another).

Each section is chronological, and they all have reference post numbers attached to them. This is every post that I consider of important content, I left out many posts addressed to spring specifically that weren't related to what sekinj thought of spring's role. Additionally, some players weren't given a section, notably Goat and fhq (actual fhq not Ice fhq, although Ice isn't in here either), because I don't feel she talked about them enough to warrant their own section.

Officer sekinj?

Suspects

my top suspects:
Jebus
DO
fhq

Sekinj

, who do you see as a more profitable deadline lynch: FHQ or Jebus?

jebus. I think he is much scummier than fhq.

I honestly don't see enough difference to choose. I also don't like how you have narrowed our options to just fhq and rhin. I think goatrevolt, spoilum and [Lynx] have said just as many questionable things. PLUS - hohum is absent! what if he is the scum and is just lurking to victory.

ok. for now I beleive don and spring, but I think the scum MUST have some pretty powerful roles. I also beleive Lynx is town.

that leaves:

Goat

- would have to have been bussing budja from very early on. His interaction with budja and suspicion seem genuine.

Ice

- good day 1 play, no good read on replacements.

RC

- good play and reasoned responses throughout each day

Rhinox

- the biggest thing is the weird play by DO

Spolium

- wishy washy about budja, jumped off saying fake claim was unlikely, then jumped on again quickly when spring countered, gave excuse of "lesson learned"

I know this isn't huge or anything and some of you are goign to be dissapointed, but I went back and looked at each of these players in isolation and this is my verdict.

Vote: Spolium

spring

town. I believe your claim that you are the doc, wholeheartedly.

Oh so for you getting me to play was a priority?

If there is someone I know is town, then YES, they are the person I want to play the most, because I know our alignments are the same.

spring now seems much more scummy, so of the two I trust her less at this point, given all the claims.

for now I beleive don and spring

don

this certainly doesn't help [don's] towniness in my eyes.

for now I beleive don and spring

Spolium

lynching spoilum would clear up one tiny possiblity out of many... not worth it at all for that reason.

@sl - I don't think anything in particular about it. It indicates that you generally think [Spolium] is townish, which I would agree with.

I think goatrevolt, spoilum and [Lynx] have said just as many questionable things.

I don't think spoilum has done anything scummy enough to be voted on based on the assumption that [spring] MIGHT be a quack doc.

Spolium

- wishy washy about budja, jumped off saying fake claim was unlikely, then jumped on again quickly when spring countered, gave excuse of "lesson learned"

[...]

Vote: Spolium

Rhinox/DO

my top suspects:
Jebus
DO
fhq

Does anyone have anything against DO/Rhinox except DO wanting to lynch spring

That move just strikes me as a replacement wanting to stir up trouble or being bored, or not wanting to read the whole game, ectetera. Does one scumtell a scum make? and to throw a little wifom on the fire - why would scum be that stupid?

@rhinox - I'm saying ppl only have 1 thing against you and that's one stupid thing DO did. I don't think one stupid thing by a repalcement who was obviously not interested in playing the game should make you scum.

RC

Look at RC for example. His jump on my wagon I found very supicous.

VOTE: as well as the justification ("I think this is a good place for D3's first wagon.") seems opportunistic.

[...]

I'm curious as to why RC has dropped off everyone's scum list when he was pretty high on some ppl's Days 1 and 2?

RC

- good play and reasoned responses throughout each day

Lynx

I think goatrevolt, spoilum and [Lynx] have said just as many questionable things.

I also completely disagree with your Lynx thing. he is town.

[Lynx] just seems very town to me. good scumhunting, not overly agressive.

I also beleive Lynx is town.

D2 - No Lynch

Maybe this is just bad scumhunting on my part, but I can't see anything sufficiently scummy enough to lynch someone over. I think gaining info tongiht is our best option.

I just dont' like this situation and think a no lynch is our best option. I think without more information we will make a mistake.

Misc

maybe we shoudl just mass claim

I think if we have two docs, we have to have two scum groups... expecially if you throw a town watcher in there as well...

So, to me, it really does seem like we actually have 2 docs. BUt what would the mafia have to have to counter such a powerful town? at least a godfather I'm thinking...

While doing this I noticed some awkward shifts on Rhinox/DO and Spolium, but in general she seems to be pretty straight. Her bringing up the GF and suggesting a No Lynch to get more information play in her favor, along with the emphasis on Lynx as town all day today, what doesn't play in her favor, however, is her bringing up a mass claim. She retracted that later, but it seems really awkward that a Cop would want to mass claim, especially with her Doctor(s) out already.

All in all, I have an inkling who it was that Plonky investigated... there is actually only one person I would accept as valid investigation for N1, but I will wait for sekinj to tell me who it was before giving out this information. The fact that she didn't bother to bring this up with the claim is suspicious in and of itself though. I will tentatively accept her claim pending anyone catching something contradictory, but, at the moment, the veracity of the claim is not on par with spring or even don.

Before sekinj's claim:
[Town]-spring--don--Lynx----Rhinox-----Ice9[∙]-Spolium--sekinj--Goat---------[Scum]

After sekinj's claim:
[Town]-spring--don--Lynx----Rhinox----sekinj-Ice9[∙]---Spolium---Goat--------[Scum]

[sekinj]

i'm your cop.
that's why I know Lynx is town, and why I think we have a godfather (unless Lynx is the godfather).

There were two nights. You should have two investigations. Why do you only have one? Also why did you choose to investigate me?

plonky failed to investigate anyone on the first night. I investigated you because spring threw that huge fit about you right before night 2.

[Rhinox]

DO wanting to lynch spring. That was the only thing from your character that stood out to me. I think it was just a bored alt, but it is worth remembering.

The reason I asked is because when I replaced in, you heavily defended me against accusations based on DO's actions, so I find it odd that you consider it noteworthy now.

anyways...

Doc-Doc-Watcher-Cop... Which doesn't fit with the rest? Does it seem logical that the town can actually have all 4 of those roles? I think it seems likely now that at least 1 of the 3 remaining are lying.

Sekinj, if you suspect there to be a godfather, why are you willing to ride lynx off as town? Couldn't he be the GF?

[sekinj]

Rhinox - I didn't think DO's action was worthy of a lynch, just worthy of note.

Yes, Lynx could be the godfather. Also, spring could lying, and don could be lying. Also, I could be insane... *shrug* there are just too many possibilities along that vein to go running after them right now. I'd rather explore the remaining players... or I'd be willing to go with a no lynch to try to get more info... but now I am a mafia target so I may not make it through the night.

I was entertaining the thought of a mass claim because I wanted to get some serious discussion on possible roles. however, after reflection, i realized it was probably best to just see how things went and try to get investigations at night, using the knowledge gained from roles already claimed.

Also, me being a cop is one reason I was so pissed at spring. What if all our town power roles just sat in the background and only commented when they felt like it? well, if we really have 4, then that is a huge chunk of the town not playing. that is unacceptable, and spring's choice to play that way in this game is just stupid.

[sekinj]

now that I can pole the other players -

Who should I investigate tonight?

I was debating between checking spring's (or don's) alignment, or checking some other player who is unclaimed (goat, spoilum, ice, RC, Rhinox)