Mini 167 - Les Miserables Mafia. Game over!

[MeMe]

Perhaps MeMe and LML could put their claws away and concentrate on finding scum instead of scratching each other's eyes out.

My goodness -- I haven't even gotten heated up in this game. I'm pretty surprised my posts are being characterized in such a way.

[EmpTyger]

gootentag:
We seem to keep posting simultaneously.

Point, I suppose- we shouldn’t presume any character is (or isn’t) mafia. <shameless>Though I’m sure a good, friendly, fun-loving mod would never, ever, be so devious.</shameless>

<

emphasis

added>
If there are two killing groups, starting with 9 players,

worst case scenario

:
Night 1: 2 players die, 7 left
Day 1: 1 player lynched, 6 left
Night 2: 2 players die, 4 left

By this point, the mafia must surely be in majority, town loses.

You are misanalyzing. Obviously, lynching a mafia and having a double crossfire is not the worst case. Metagaming/strategizing the setup/looking at logistics, but: I don’t think a setup requiring either the day 1 lynch to be correct or the town having to get doubly lucky should be an obvious assumption. Is it "possible"? Well, yes. Is it likely? Who knows. Can we tell? No- so I don’t see any basis for accusing bob of making a mistake.


LML:

<snip>I mean, we have FACTS to go on here, and instead, we're looking at Mafia logistics. As much as their interesting...<snip>

Okay, then. Let’s step away from logistics. I’d like you to further explain your accusation of me.

Point 1 (referring to the numbering in [24])was based upon speculating about my part in a discussion of logistics, which you now seem to think is merely a distraction. Point 2 was based upon the hypothetical nature of Javert, and your assumptions regarding him. Neither seem consistent with this desire to turn the discussion to these non-logistical “FACTS” of yours. Which MeMe beat me to asking you about. And as for the accusation itself, I’m still not sure what this “cop fear” I seem to have is.

While you’re at it, I’d also like to hear your response is to this query, which you’ve ignored:

<snip>Any chance on elaborating on (a) what you know about who the scum are or (b) how you know who the scum are? The obvious answer to (b) is that you are scum, but I don't think anyone would be that stupid. Unless you're cuning enough to know that we're going to think that no-one's that stupid.<snip>

Posts 37-39 all seemed to be tail-chasing right about now<snip>

Tangential question: Why are you highlighting [37-39] as tail-chasing? Specifically, what made the content of vikingfan’s [36] so different that you didn’t include it, as you easily could have?

And we’re not lynching based upon it, so I don’t see why the alarmist attitude over mere discussion. (I’d argue that it enables it to give us a better idea of how many “wrong moves” we might have, but that doesn’t really matter.) And I happen to think that there is some factual data being generated by the discussion of logistics...

I'd like EmpTyper to explain his quip here (which I felt never got a good answer) <snip> Why was the answer to this necessary, even after the importance had been "downplayed"?

Reposting my response:

<snip>As I warned, the reason was very minor. I figured there could be a slight chance that mafia could claim ignorance of the book to justify not making what would otherwise be an obvious conclusion. Given the links offered by the mod, it became almost completely moot, but I so no reason not to have such information declared, especially since most already had. I didn’t reveal the reason when asked because it would completely defeat the already diminished purpose of asking. In retrospect, it might not be particularly useful, but I still don’t see how it might have been harmful.<snip>

It seemed to me that you were looking to check everyone's familiarity with the plot in order to figure out the complexity of a future claim.<snip>

Temporarily assuming this is true, why would post [22] have “especially” cemented this?


Pending your replies,

vote: LoudmouthLee

For someone claiming to be dissatisfied with the direction of discussion, I don’t see you helping the town do better- as MeMe pointed out, some of your reasoning is on the very logic you claimed was useless. You made an various statements including an “odd” accusation and have avoided clarifying your rationale. (And you’re voting for someone *I* know is innocent.)

[EmpTyger]

blech Have to run- don't have time to reply to the 3 people who posted meanwhile.

[LordKrishna]

Whew! It seems like there's been a lot of speculation flying every which way about the setup:, the numbers, the roles, and such, but nobody has mentioned the possibility of the Mafia being the underworld figures -- Montparnasse, Claquesous, Gueuelemer, and Babet.

Just thought I'd throw that out for those who feel like over-analyzing the setup. I don't even remember them from my reading of the book -- clearly, it has been too long!

-K

[vikingfan]

I dunno-I still lean towards the thinking of not overguessing. But maybe that's just me.

As far as roles, with the possible exception of people like the Thenardiers, the mafia could be anyone-good characters being the mafia is not uncommon.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote: the next person to speculate as to the role which the mod has assigned to any character from the book

.

[Changling bob]

I don't care which character has which role. The point of my earlier post was to point out the most likely number of killing groups so that we are prepared. Even if we did know which character had which role, we don't know any roles, so it won't help us.

I haven't got any time to analyse anything that people have said so far, I'm still just running on exactly what people say. So, just posting to show I'm not lurking really.

[Mr Stoofer]

I have just read the thread again and I have to say that Emptyger's posts are distinctly smelly.

First, he was rather rather keen to find out everyone's familiarity with the book. He pressed everyone to reveal the level of their knowledge in post 7 and then repeated his request in post 17:

Could everyone just indicate whether they have or have not read the book/seen the play? And how familiar they are? For example, is there anyone who doesn’t know who Grantaire is? If we're analyzing the nature of the character of Javert, it would help to know everyone's background.
Myself: read and seen, multiple times.

This looks to me like he was trying to see how far he could get away with with false roleclaims etc.

Secondly, and connected to the first point, he said this in post 7:

I was wondering whether having everyone claim their characters made any sense, because working from the main characters there seemed to be a small number of main roles (eg: Valjean, Cosette, Marius). However, since Seol had a relatively minor character, that doesn’t seem the best plan. Mafia could easily claim relatively minor roles like Grantaire, and we’d be unable to tell who they were. And there’s a great risk that any cops and doctors would be easy for the mafia to identify from their characters.

This read to me as though he was delibeately laying the ground for a false claim to a minor character.

Thirdly, he has twice suggested that the cop should claim:

Is there any reason not to have a cop come forwards if they think they’ve found someone who is mafia?

Is there a good way to check whether a cop found mafia last night? In newbie 85 everyone posted one of {“If I am the cop, I did not find mafia last night” / “I found a mafia”}. Of course, given what happened in that game, that might not be the best precedent...

Fourthly, he has twice suggested that there might not be any mafia at all.

I’ve never played in a themed setup, but I’m having trouble getting the numbers to work for multiple killing groups. Maybe 2 serial killers and no mafia? The mod’s first post, “Players dead, ill, maimed, on the run or otherwise incarcerated:” does seem to imply multiple ways of death, which would point away from simply 1 mafia.

And he raised the same possibility in post 38.

My first and third points have already been made by LML, so I do not think that I am being paranoid. Now, it may be that Emptyger is a newbie, but I do not think that that is a satisfactory explanantion. In fact, I think it is noticeable how many times he makes reference to being a newbie - so much so that I think I'll call this my fifth reason.

I think that in the absence of anything better to go on, Empytger must be the current prime suspect.

[Aelyn]

Monsieur Hugo rises to the soapbox once more, checking his memory of events is correct for the novelization he’s planning. He informs the town that the voting is as follows:

EmpTyger

- 2 (Mr Stoofer, LoudmouthLee)
Gootentag - 1 (MeMe)
MeMe - 1 (vikingfan)
LoudmouthLee – 1 (Emptyger)

8 alive, 5 to lynch

He also politely informs Mr Stoofer that pre-emptive votes like that don't count, especially if he's already voting for someone.

[EmpTyger]

I’m going to risk disobeying the mod by posing the question of how Victor Hugo managed to speak in bold type. With essentially the same vote total (only my vote changed), the bolding was present in [30] but not present in [58]. Aelyn mentioned something in the queue thread about an unusual rule...


Mr Stoofer:
Let me start by saying that I myself would hate a newbie claim as a defense. That’s why I don’t mention it to excuse play mistakes, but to explain why I’m asking questions or not possessing knowledge of styles concepts others seem to hold as well-established.

First, he was rather rather keen to find out everyone's familiarity with the book. He pressed everyone to reveal the level of their knowledge in post 7 and then repeated his request in post 17:
<snip>
This looks to me like he was trying to see how far he could get away with with false roleclaims etc.

I’m not sure what else to say about this. I conducted the survey because I thought it limited the options of the mafia, who could otherwise feign unfamiliarity with the books. And I saw it being of no cost to the town. The only possible cost that’s been insinuated is that I could use potential knowledge the town’s ignorance to fake a claim. Well, fine. Temporarily assume that I’m mafia. You think I hoped to find the other 7 people (less any mafia partners) in a Les Mis. themed game unfamiliar with the book? This so ridiculous I have trouble believing it, but that’s been the only suggestion for the supposedly nefarious plot I might have concocted.

Secondly, and connected to the first point, he said this in post 7:

I was wondering whether having everyone claim their characters made any sense, because working from the main characters there seemed to be a small number of main roles (eg: Valjean, Cosette, Marius). However, since Seol had a relatively minor character, that doesn’t seem the best plan. Mafia could easily claim relatively minor roles like Grantaire, and we’d be unable to tell who they were. And there’s a great risk that any cops and doctors would be easy for the mafia to identify from their characters.

This read to me as though he was delibeately laying the ground for a false claim to a minor character.

I’m not sure how you’re reading a giveaway into my role. To explain what *I* thought I was doing:
The first thing I did when I joined the game was brainstormed which characters might be in a Les Mis. setup, and got a number around 9 using main characters. So I wondered about the possibility of a characterclaim, which seemed a potentially winning move. In the first post I made, I thought it worth mentioning that reasoning, in case someone had any further thoughts on how to adapt such a plan to deal with the disadvantages I realized it had. As I didn’t know then but have since been repeatedly informed, this was frowned upon as “breaking the setup”.

Thirdly, he has twice suggested that the cop should claim:

Is there any reason not to have a cop come forwards if they think they’ve found someone who is mafia?

Is there a good way to check whether a cop found mafia last night? In newbie 85 everyone posted one of {“If I am the cop, I did not find mafia last night” / “I found a mafia”}. Of course, given what happened in that game, that might not be the best precedent...

In [7] I posed a question. (Incidentally, context? By your logic in my very next line I was suggesting that the cop should not claim.) In the next 10 posts there was an ambiguous response from MeMe. So while probing her reply I asked a somewhat different question in [17]. Afterwards I received a few variations on “no” and nothing positive, so I dropped the matter.

And forgive a question that seems ridiculous even to me: How is thinking it might be good for a cop to come forward if they found a mafia a sign of suspicion? I would think it’s more suspicious that arguing that a cop who discovered mafia should stay hidden. Not to argue a conceded point, but we still have a doctor [most likely- and even if we don’t, the mafia can’t know that, so they risk wasting a round attempting to kill a protected cop]. It eliminates the risk of losing information by a cop dying overnight. Moreover, there is a difference between asking a cop to claim and discussing whether it is beneficial for them to do so. The first is irreversible, the second is just discussion.

This next accusation, forgive my saying so, is just ridiculous.

Fourthly, he has twice suggested that there might not be any mafia at all.

I’ve never played in a themed setup, but I’m having trouble getting the numbers to work for multiple killing groups. Maybe 2 serial killers and no mafia? The mod’s first post, “Players dead, ill, maimed, on the run or otherwise incarcerated:” does seem to imply multiple ways of death, which would point away from simply 1 mafia.

And he raised the same possibility in post 38.<snip>

Did you read the entire sentence containing the words “no mafia”? 2 SKs would effectively be 2 1 person mafias. It’s a possibility, just as much as 1 2 person mafia. Do I think 2 SKs is more likely? No, but it is a possibility. As for discussing such possibilities, let me refresh your memory:

Also, what do people think about killing groups? There was only one death last night, but that could have been due to a doc or roleblocker or double targetting. Is it possible that we have an SK in a group this small?

Did you think that [38] just might be part of the discussion that began after the question that *you* asked in [32]? You wanted to know if it were possible. I was showing how it might be. Therefore I am mafia???

Incidentally, can’t that accusation be turned around? Wouldn’t someone who’s dismissing possibilities of multiple killing groups be trying to hide that they are a SK?


Finally,

Vote: the next person to speculate as to the role which the mod has assigned to any character from the book.

Even if such speculation is useless, what is the harm? It’s not like other topics aren’t being discussed. Having people talk about the game creates data that can later be analyzed. If someone does post only useless speculation, well, there’s nothing to stop you from later on pointing out such suspicious behavior.
But now allow me to speculate. Maybe you don’t want attention called to specific behavior. Maybe you’re using that accusation to communicate a warning to a partner...

[Aelyn]

I should mention now that, as no-one specifically asked for the unusual rule, I chose not to use it. All the rules of the game, save any based on roles, have been explicitly or implicitly mentioned in the first post. The reason for non-typeface is simply to do with the method I used for votecounting, and has no game status.

I have edited the votecount to reflect this.

[Changling bob]

First off, everyone seems to be jumping at shadows. So we can't assume to know which characters are which roles. This shouldn't matter. Due to Aelyn's tricksiness with anything and everything (like I said earlier, I know him irl), I doubt that there is much straightforward in this game. So in my opinion, this early in the game we should just think in terms of roles, and ignore characters for now. Maybe once we've hit a scum, we can start to figure out which characters are going to be scum, but by this point there's going to be no takers for the relevent characters. (this written before EmpTygers last post)

EmpTyger: A good reason to not discus role/character relationships is outlined above. Basically, Aelyn could be screwing us and making characters unobvious (is that a word?) roles, hence discussion of them is a little pointless.

Now, I know I'm blatently contradicting myself here, but Loudmouth Lee:

<snip>
While you’re at it, I’d also like to hear your response is to this query, which you’ve ignored:

<snip>Any chance on elaborating on (a) what you know about who the scum are or (b) how you know who the scum are? The obvious answer to (b) is that you are scum, but I don't think anyone would be that stupid. Unless you're cuning enough to know that we're going to think that no-one's that stupid.<snip>

*a member of the audience coughs*
*tumbleweed rolls past*

In my last game, halo freak managed to not answer some questions posed by myself and EmpTyger over several pages, leading me, along with other things, to think that he was scum. I was wrong, but by his own admission he played badly in that game. In addition, observation (b) above needs answering, as this backs up the point I have just made.

Now as yet, I'm undecided about who I would vote for, but the people I'm considering I'll keep to myself for the moment.

Public service announcement

: From around 3:30pm GMT this Friday until either Sunday evening around 9ish GMT or Monday morning around 9:30 GMT, I am unlikely to be online at all, due to a combination of dance rehersal, dance show (twice) and physics coursework due in on Monday. I'm giving you all some warning so that I don't get accused of lurking, especially since I'm not the most prolific of posters at the best of times.

[MeMe]

LordKrishna seems to be keeping quite the low profile so far...especially in comparison to the level of chat from almost everyone else (except gootentag, who has my vote and will continue to enjoy that privilege for the time being).

[LordKrishna]

I don't think a whole lot of people have been posting prolifically, MeMe. I put it to you that in addition to me and gootentag, Mr Stoofer and vikingfan are also less 'post-happy' than, say, LoudmouthLee (the rather obvious explanation being that he's a Loudmouth), or you (who wish to call attention to yourself, shouting 'Me! Me!', I suppose?), or EmpTyger (who is a Tyger, and would therefore be noticed just about anywhere!). <ducks>

Apologies for lame humor above.

At any rate... a couple of good reasons for my relatively short posts.

1) I am afraid of getting targeted by the Mafia too early. I haven't lasted longer than Day 2 in any game so far (1st game -- everyone lost in Day 2, 2nd game, I got night-killed on Night 1!), so I'd really rather not give them any reasons to slit my throat in the night (or perhaps

garotte

me, given this setting?) <smile>

2) I'm not quite sure I'm following the level of discussion that's being bandied about on this board, to put it simply. There's been an amazing amount of posts by only a few people, as I see it, each nitpicking on tiny points made by each other.

Now, I realize that that's essentially how a Mafia game works, where you try to sniff out the scum by the slightly 'off' scent of their posts, but I keep wondering why people cite things as 'evidence' of being scum or as 'facts' -- so far, no one really looks a huge amount like scum to me (in sharp contrast to another game I'm in, in which *everyone* looks like scum to me!).

Here is my understanding of the situation:
Basically, EmpTyger looked pretty scummy to me, up until Post 59, in which he made what looks to me to be a pretty solid defense of his actions. Particularly the part about the 'dual-SK vs. Mafia' issue, in which he defends himself against Mr Stoofer. It is true -- I had sort of understood EmpTyger to mean what Mr Stoofer was saying, that there was 'No Mafia' (which seemed a ludicrous, and possibly dangerous claim to make). Now I realize he was really talking about the possibility of 2 separate SKs (which I now realize must mean 'Serial Killer'! ). This basically amounts to the same thing.

This is what the votes are (as related by Victor Hugo/Aelyn in post 58

EmpTyger - 2 (Mr Stoofer, LoudmouthLee)
Gootentag - 1 (MeMe)
MeMe - 1 (vikingfan)
LoudmouthLee – 1 (Emptyger)

I will attempt to analyse why each person is voting for whom they are.
EmpTyger and LoudmouthLee have a vendetta going at present, so their votes are on each other. EmpTyger has made a number of long posts, some of which people have taken issue with, because he made some bizarre and unclear statements, and I think it's because of this that Mr Stoofer, too, is voting for him.

MeMe, you have a vote on you from vikingfan, which is still the initial random vote he placed on you at the beginning of the game (he has not indicated anything about other reasons to do so, so I'll assume his reason is that he doesn't wish to change his early random vote until he's sure that he knows).

Now, MeMe, you still seem convinced that it's gootentag (from your vote), but the last post you made in which you mentioned him was post 40, and what you said was

gootentag's last post makes me happy to keep my vote on him.

What is puzzling to me is -- I have no idea what he said in that post to make you suspicious. (Unless you are referring to his point about even Jean Valjean possibly being Mafia...??) I still haven't seen an answer from you about whether or not your vote on gootentag was random or not (EmpTyger and Mr Stoofer both have asked you about this same point, but your response has not mentioned at all what your reasons were, if any).

As for me, I have no idea of whom to be suspicious, as there aren't a whole lot of *clear* reasons why people are voting for whom they are. Now, if anyone wants to attempt to convince me to vote for a particular person, it will take a great deal of work on their part. I do NOT want to lynch an innocent. It does not fit with my ethos.

-K

[LordKrishna]

Apologies for last post's verbosity.

/off until tomorrow night.

-K

[Mr Stoofer]

Without responding to every point made by Emptyger:

(a)

Just to clarify my 2nd point, I thought that it was suspicious that you were saying that the mod has obviously chosen to include minor characters. Normally it is dangerous to make a false claim a minor character because (although unlikely to be anyone else's character in the game) the town might not believe the claim. So your post 7 seemed to me to be preparing the ground for such a claim.

(b)

I happily accept that none of my points are conclusive (individually or collectively). But taken together they do raise a suspicion in my mind. In the absence of anything better to go on, you are more suspicious than anyone else at present.

[gootentag]

Whew! It seems like there's been a lot of speculation flying every which way about the setup:, the numbers, the roles, and such, but nobody has mentioned the possibility of the Mafia being the underworld figures -- Montparnasse, Claquesous, Gueuelemer, and Babet.

Not having read the book in it's entirety, who are these people?

Meme, I am interested in your insistance on voting for me, but it's hard to defend myself when I don't know why I need to. The comments on Valjean etc. were possibilities, not even neccecarily speculation. While Javert inherently seems more likely to be scum, I am agreeing with you that we need to keep an open mind about potential claims.

[MeMe]

gootentag - you're my original vote and, so far, no one has stood out as being suspicious enough for me to switch to them, nor have you looked so ultra-innocent as to make me want to budge. I have got my eyes and ears open -- so it's not an "insistence" on voting for you, it's that I'd rather be voting than not voting and I think you're at least as suspicious as anyone else in the game right now.

The post to which I referred had two particular points I found interesting.

This is mistaken. Half is not a majority, and I've seen it work out before in a situation with a mafia of 2, a Serial Killer, and a townie of some sort being left. If a Day two mafia lynch occurs (which is unlikely but possible,) the remaining mafia and the SK could kill each other and the town would win. Like I said, unlikely, but possible.

This raised my eyebrows...it's feels like a reassurance -- like "well, the situation you describe isn't

that

dire and let me show you how it could be OK." Although you call a win unlikely, you do attempt to put forth the theory that losing pro-town roles could still result in town survival. Just interesting and, in my experience, wrong -- I'm pretty interested in where you've seen this "work out before," so please provide a link.

As for the Javert implications, I guess we can put them aside for now. Without either him or another cop showing up dead or alive, it's all speculation anyway. And assumptions can lead to bad things - like in Harry Potter Mafia where it was later discovered that Harry, Hermione, and Ron were the mafia. (NOTE: I haven't read the game, just heard it referenced several times before as a classic case of "Don't outguess the Mod.") I mean, it's

possible

that Jean Valjean - prisoner 24601 - is scum, right? I mean, he is a convicted theif and robber, amirite?

Here you say the Javert talk should be put aside because, hey, it's just speculation. Then you go on, in almost the same breath, to come up with a speculation of your own about Jean Valjean.

If I didn't already have my vote on you, I don't know that these comments would have been enough to make me switch, but they're certainly enough to make me stay.

[gootentag]

Reguarding the situation you mentioned in the first quote, I've looked through some of the older games and can't seem to find it. It was alot easier to find stuff like that when you could just look at the list of games and see who won in the thread titles. I'm pretty sure I have seen it, though. Most likely in the Theme Park games (not that that narrows it down a whole lot, but those are the ones I've read through a handful of.)

In the second quote, I was attempting to reinforce the prior statement about speculation with an example that naything is possible. I could have said Eponine is a modified SK out to kill Cosette as well. The point was, you can make endless arguments like that. I wasn't endorsing the Jean Valjean one in particular.

[EmpTyger]

Sorry for the absense; having a busy week. Will post something with content tomorrow.

[EmpTyger]

[Warning: this is going to be on the harsh side.]
Okay, bob and I said we were going to be busy. At absolute most 3 of you are mafia/SKs. So, the rest of you: What are your excuses for lurking? Are you trying to get a deadline imposed?

In 48 hours only 1 person has posted- and that was me apologizing for my absense [sic]!

In that time:
gootentag, you’ve posted once in another thread.
Krishna, you posted twice today in another thread.
LML, you’ve posted numerous times in other threads.
MeMe, you’ve posted multiple times per day in other threads.
Stoofer, you posted three times in another thread (plus the queue).
vikingfan, you’ve posted multiple times per day in other threads.

And that’s only considering the past 2 days. Some of you have been barely participating prior.

I know I overstuff my posts with content, but couldn’t you do *anything* without me? Is there some pressing matter requiring me or bob that I’ve missed?

I’d post something else, but this to me is more suspicious than any post analysis I might do. And yet clearly some of the lurking must be being committed by innocents! Don’t you realize you’re enabling mafia to get away with lurking?! Participate!

[Aelyn]

I'm busy this weekend, but Saturday evening I will be sending modprods to EVERYONE who has not posted since Thursday. I don't want this game to die. I will start looking for replacements, if necessary, Monday evening.

[MeMe]

~doesn't need a prod~

[gootentag]

Prior to your posting ET, I was the last post in the thread - I had said what I thought/felt I needed to in the prior post. While I agree that this game is kind of stalling out due to lack of participation, I for one find it slightly unnerving that you're digging through everyone elses posts in

other games

to further your suspicions. Let it suffice that people are lurky because they aren't posting here, not because they're posting elswhere.

[LoudmouthLee]

I'm not in need of a prod, being that I'm thrilled with my current vote.