Newbie 764 - Game Over

[Korts]

What’s an alibi-vote?

What I meant by it is that Infinis, by voting me who is admittedly behind with the game, is ducking out of having to take a real stand and fingering suspicions.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

6 Days to Deadline

Vote Count

Sando - 2 (Chaos40, Korts)

Infinis - 1 (Kairyuu)
Korts - 1 (Infinis)
Japles - 2 (Ojanen, Sando)

Not Voting - 3 (Japles, Josh Lyman, Millar13)

5 to Lynch (

Deadline Lynch

)

[Chaos40]

Ok, I'm back. I'll give the thread a re-read and post content in an hour or two

[Chaos40]

Ok, my re-read's over and I've got a few new points to make. The first and most relevant to the game being

Unvote, Vote: Japles

Even though he's apparently had a few days free, he has neglected to even post, much less acknowledge my outstanding questions from several days ago. Maybe once he does, my opinion of him may alter, but for now he's been too happy to withdraw from notice once again once suspicion started to be cast onto others and this does not help his case.

With regards to the discussion involving probability and random numbers, I don't really see the point in bringing up factors which cannot be manipulated or viewed in any other matter than which they are. As Infinis points out in a later post, he lists several other factors which we can take to be absolute fact. We cannot change them or exploit them, so why bring them up? People seem to be disputin them, but all this achieves is clarification and I don't see it as particulerly useful to scumhunting, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong though. The fact that it occured does not strike me as particularly scummy but I do question the motives behind it.

[millar13]

vote: japles

[Korts]

Saying "I agree with Kairyuu/Korts in their debate" =/= taking my case against Chaos and spitting it back out almost verbatim as your own.

Different scenarios even. I didn't manipulate you into doing anything. I predicted what a scum would likely do in a given situation, and you fit the

description, so I voted you.

The problem with this is this was after Sando's reaction. Naturally you aren't expected, nor

should

you describe the theoretical scumreactions to

your gambit, but I'm sure you realize that the credibility of saying that "

that

is what I expected you to do, scum!" is, to say the least,

questionable.

No, you pretty much proved that is was by doing something very similar to what I did myself D1 in the first game I was scum

Didn't you say you were only scum once before?

@all: As a general rule, it is said that discussion is good for the town, and quickly ending the Day is good for the scum. That is based

on some playstyles. Others prefer methodical, swift Days, with a reasonably quick consensus lynch after some scumhunting. I am of that second group. As

long as there is enough information for a lynch, I tend to want that lynch to happen. That is just my style, and other styles are perfectly valid as well.

Addendum: in general, quicklynches are not beneficial, because quicklynches are, by definition, lynches that are

too

fastly executed. However this

does

not

mean that days should drag on indefinitely--considering the three week deadlines in this particular game we don't have to worry about that,

but once we have a concensus there is no reason not to lynch, it'll only stall the game. There's a fine line between too little and too much.

@Kairyuu: Confirm vote: wasn't mentioned in the rules, what is it, a game mechanic or a rhetorical device for weight?

It essentially just means that I have been further convinced that my vote is in the right place. More of a rhetorical device than anything.

Meaning it's useless theatrics, like using bolded

FoS: scummyperson

; there is no practical use, and it doesn't strenghten any argument. Use it if

you will, but there are some like me who just get annoyed by it.


---------------------

Doc Game Kai says: "Don't treat newbies with kid gloves"
This Game Kai says: "Treat scumbuddies with kid gloves"

It's not a complete contradiction, but it is at least a partial contradiction. Changing your play style between games would be a tell in my books. Also,

claiming that you're still developing your play style simply doesn't wash.

This is not relevant. I'm not sure Kai was directly telling you to treat scumbuddies with "kid gloves", it'd make more sense for him to

expect

people to do so. Can you give me a quote, since I can't find this (I'm on a train with no internet access while writing this)?

Also, even if Kai is scum, and we assume he follows his own outspoken advice to treat scumbuddies with kid gloves--he never treated Chaos with kid gloves

like you're saying. He made a perfectly reasonable conversation starter vote, with an argument leading into pseudo-serious discussion. The fact that he was

satisfied with Chaos' reactions to a minor situational accusation means nothing more than Chaos holding up to scrutiny--unless you can give quotes to prove

that Chaos' reactions were not close to being as favorable as Kai presented them to be.

[Kairyuu]

@Korts: Japles is now at L-1. I would like to hammer, so I would like to know when you finish getting caught up.

@millar: Provide reasoning. This behavior is quite unlike you. Normally you would be all over the place by now.

[Korts]

If you think he's scummy enough for a hammer, hammer away. I can catch up during the night.

[millar13]

Hammer away Kairyuu....take one for the team

[Kairyuu]

Very well then. Since there is virtually no chance that Josh will get back in time to catch up (or get replaced and have his replacement catch up), I will drop the hammer

@millar: Use the Night to do as much rereading as you can, and post a big analysis post at the beginning of D2. I'm not used to you being so quiet (or so close to grammatically correct for that matter )

@Japles: You have had plenty of time to respond to accusations against you, and you even claimed to be free, so there is no good reason for your lurking right now. It is highly unlikely that any good will come of allowing you last words. Therefore,

vote: Japles

@all: I will be doing a full reread during the Night phase, and if I am alive at the beginning of D2 I should have a nice solid analysis post that includes everyone (except for Josh of course).

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Final Day 1 Vote Count

Sando - 1 (Korts)
Korts - 1 (Infinis)

Japles - 5 (Ojanen, Sando, Chaos40, Millar13, Kairyuu)

Not Voting - 2 (Japles, Josh Lyman)

5 to Lynch

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Japles is aggregiously quiet, even as the mob leads him to the gallows. No final words, not a sound as he is hanged. Fearing the worst, you search his person and discover a small pistol! Apparently Japles was working for the Mob!!!

Japles,

Mafia Goon

, lynched Day 1

Night has begun. Those of you with night actions must submit your choices before Saturday, April 18th.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Chaos' long years of service to your town has left him with nothing more than an ignominious death, shot dead by the Mafia as he slept.

Chaos40,

Townie

, killed Night 1

Day 2 has begun. With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is the end of Saturday, May 9th.

[Kairyuu]

Hmm. Well, that is quite odd, and implies a few things methinks. Just gotta go through and figure out what they are (as a side note, I told ya so on my read of Chaos's defense).

The entirety of Chaos' interactions after the initial spat with Korts and me was attacking Sando and then Japles. Ordinarily, that would make me immediately question Sando's towniness. However, several other factors from D1 must be taken into account as well.

Note: It is highly likely that Josh is confirmed town now, since he hasn't been around at all, and a kill still went through with only one scum remaining. This is a very rare way to confirm people, so don't expect to see it often, but it still works.

Sando and Ojanen are the closest things to confirmed town we have right now other than Josh, since they were the originators of the Japles case, and they were right. However, neither died N1, which is troubling, because it points to the last scum as hunting for power roles rather than going after strong town players. Also, the fact that neither IC died (I didn't really expect to die myself, given that I was suspect #1 going into Night, but I wouldn't have been at all surprised if Korts died) implies that the remaining scum is not afraid of the ICs in the least, as most new scum lean towards IC killing N1 for safety. This tells us that it is likely that the remaining scum has some experience at Mafia. That narrows it down to 3 people, myself, Korts, and millar13.

vote: millar13

Considering that I know my own alignment, and considering that between the two of them millar is acting the most out of character compared to what I know of them, I see him as the most likely candidate for the last remaining scum.

@all: Obviously, if there is a cop with a guilty on someone they should claim ASAP in lieu of all of this hunting. Also, if there is a cop that is not included in Sando and Ojanen with an innocent on someone who is not Josh, Sando, Ojanen, or Chaos, they should claim as well with result, because that will break the game wide open for an insta-win.

If you didn't notice, D2 is where my theory brain kicks in, especially if we manage a scumlynch D1, which we did.

[Chaos40]

Curses! Go Town! *dies*

[millar13]

Kairyuu I would love to know how I am...'acting out of character'

[Kairyuu]

Simple millar, I am not at all used to you lurking. You made all of 3 posts D1, as compared to 750, where you were one of the most active.

[Korts]

Bah! I completely forgot about catching up... This is what happens, boys and girls, when you rely on your watched topics list on whether you have any reading to do.

For now, I am split between Kairyuu and (based on Kairyuu's meta read) millar. Kairyuu based on his D2 opening post, because he mentions that scum must have been power role hunting, but doesn't mention at all that Chaos acted like a power role--in a very general sense, cops act aggressively and hop wagons, while doctors try to stay as much in the background as possible while still helping town. While I haven't finished reading up, I don't recall Chaos' contributions particularly resembling either. Also, Kairyuu, in stating that he's suspicious of millar partly because both ICs are alive, made the baseless assumption that I am town; this is a possible scumslip.

But I won't take any definite stance until I have caught up.

[Kairyuu]

@Korts:

he mentions that scum must have been power role hunting, but doesn't mention at all that Chaos acted like a power role--in a very general sense, cops act aggressively and hop wagons, while doctors try to stay as much in the background as possible while still helping town.

Meh. I think the Chaos kill was probably either randomly determined, or chosen because once Chaos was out of the limelight he sorta faded off a bit, which seems a bit like doctor play. Forgot to mention that apparently. Oh well.

Also, Kairyuu, in stating that he's suspicious of millar partly because both ICs are alive, made the baseless assumption that I am town; this is a possible scumslip.

Not baseless. I mentioned several times throughout D1 that I think you are likely town, and thus am functioning on the assumption that you are. You

could

be scum, but I don't think you are.

Please hurry with the getting caught up thing. You've been mostly inactive for a good deal too much time for it not to be bothering me. to no end.

@all: I knew going into the Day phase that today would likely end in my lynch, and that whether or not I can keep that from happening will depend entirely on how many people I can get on my side. However, if I cannot get enough people to side with me to be confident in my survival through D3 and D4 I will willingly submit to my lynch. I do not want to be the mislynch that puts us in lylo. Essentially what I'm trying to say is that if you're gonna lynch me, do it today so that the controversy over me will not prove fatal to the town.

Therefore, anyone who does not think that I am pro-town enough to be kept alive until I get NKed (or all game if I don't) should vote me.

That said, I think that millar is scum, so he would obviously be my preferred lynch.

[Korts]

For what it's worth I can't readily imagine Kai killing off a player he

himself

called likely town while others didn't particularly have the same read on Chaos.

[Sando]

I'm finishing up a longer post on each player, it'll be done later today. Chaos40 dying is a surprise to me, and I'm going to have to reread again as I wasn't expecting it. Like Kai, I really expected either me or Ojanen to die, which one depending on whether Kai was scum. The 'out of the blue' that I expected would have been Korts, simply because he's IC and Kai is an obvious D2 lynch target.

I'll have to have a think on my assumptions based on what has happened, I'll post in a few hours. I agree with Kai's choices of who it could be, Kai, Korts or Millar13, although I'm not going to discount Josh L just yet.

And yes, despite the fact that my mind has not been changed overnight regarding Kai, I wont be part of killing him, or anyone else, until both Josh L and Millar have posted some meaningful things, staying quiet at this stage only hurts town. And yes Millar, you are very quiet compared to other games I've read of yours.

And Chaos wasn't the most random person to be chosen, he was looking very townie after Japles came up scum, and leaving Ojanen and me alive to kill Kai would be very attractive to scum. I personally think that NKing me would have gotten a more guaranteed lynch on Kai.

[Kairyuu]

@Sando:

although I'm not going to discount Josh L just yet.

Josh was absent during the Night Phase. There was only one scum left alive during said Night Phase. With Josh inactive, he could not have submitted the kill, and therefore assuming him to be scum there is no explanation for the fact that a kill went through. Therefore, discarding the absurd (I love Zeno's Method), we can safely say that Josh cannot be scum. He is confirmed town; moreso that even you or Ojanen, because the bussing issue does not come into play (though I would consider it extremely foolish to risk bussing heavily D1 in any setup).

[Sando]

Chaos dying:

My thoughts during N1 was that either Ojanen or myself would die. I expected Kai to kill Ojanen if he were scum, and anyone else to kill me, not because I’ve been effective, but because it is an easy kill on a relatively confirmed townie that would throw a huge spotlight on Kai. Kai killing Ojanen was because it would eliminate 1 of the 2 people gunning for him, without the huge spotlight thrown on him.

So who would want to kill Chaos? Well he’s probably the 3rd most town person after Ojanen and myself, once Japles comes up scum, so there’s that. He’s un-involved in the linkage of Kai and Japles, and I believe the only person he’s pointed the finger at other than Japles is…me. Now that I’ve been forced to go back and look at Chaos, he’s the obvious person that I’d kill if I were scum. He’s almost confirmed townie, he’s attacked me, and has shown that he wont give up on something just because someone else does. It’s not that he’s a really strong target for Sandoscum to kill, it’s that there really is noone else that I would kill if scum. So I’m going to have to rely on other factors to confirm my towniness.

Having said that, pretty much anyone could kill Chaos as a safe bet that doesn’t rock the boat. It leaves the status-quo of Ojanen/Sando going for Kai, so anyone other than Kai would be happy with that as scum. It also kills one of the more pro-town people, someone you can kill without throwing the game into upheaval. Kai could also be WIFOMing it (assuming I’ve got WIFOM right here), saying ‘why would I kill Chaos when Sando/Ojanen are going to lynch me, why wouldn’t I kill one of them?’

Infinis:

Makes a random vote that looks like he’s trying to hard to make it random
Gets overly defensive of questions from Ojanen
Posts regarding Kai’s gambit, 5th post, no substance
Posts the ‘Sando acquitted himself well, but I have to reread’ post
Keeps promising a reread on Kai vs Sando and Sando vs Japles, at the end posts that the only conclusion he has come to is that Sando and Kai aren’t in cahoots.
The vote on Korts is out of nowhere, and isn’t explained at all

Korts:

Has been behind all game
Has ‘actively’ lurked all game, providing little in the way of input since the Sando vs Kai thing blew up
Voted for me without any actual reasoning provided, now that I reread it. The most he comes up with is ‘This is a very good point’, he then goes on the question some of the things Kai brought up in attacking me.
Said that Japles was experiencing technical difficulties, when in fact Japles had stated that his difficulties were fixed and had been posting regularly.
Put me at L-2, and like Kai, never posted anything regarding a quick-lynch being bad.
Posted immediately following my quicklynch post with no mention of it
Has taken a few opportunities to make people look bad without any content posted:

L-2 is not a serious threat at this game size. This is a very big overreaction, especially considering that you aren't overreacting to the L-2 directly, rather overreacting to a reaction to the L-2.

This is in response to my quote of:

By the way, as an IC, how come that you know that a quick lynch is almost never good for town, you know i'm at L-2 (you just posted) and yet make no mention of it. Thanks for confirming my views on you.

Which was in response to:

Oh, and thanks for the OMGUS by the way. It definitely tells me I hit this one out of the park. confirm vote: Sando

I think anyone can see that my response thanking Kai for confirming my views was a tongue in cheek copy of his mannerisms in his post. Yet Korts has attacked me for over-reacting to a reaction, when I did nothing of the sort, once the quote is put into context.

His catchup post (155) throws mud on both Kai and Me, without anything really added to the scumhunt (although some useful game tips are included).

1 of 2 ‘active’ people not voting for the confirmed scum, the other being Infinis.
Still hasn’t caught up after N1.

Josh Lyman:

The only read I can give is no read, he’s lurked hardcore so far, really needs to get in the game.

Millar:

Is very quiet, actively lurking
Has been asked, repeatedly, to come out and say something, has consistently refused to do so
Voted on the Japles bandwagon at 4th, with no reasoning given. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Millar bussing like that given what I’ve read of his, but that’s pretty gut.

Ojanen:

Townie through and through
I think every post has been substantive, better than anyone else in this game, myself included
First person to vote Japles (of the bandwagon that eventually killed him)
Drew a very strong and well articulated link between Japles and Kai
If Ojanen is town, wow, this would be the most amazing play ever, as opposed to just awesome scumhunting.
Has the same reasons as me to kill Chaos N1 if scum, it’s just not as strong an argument against her as it is against me.

I wont address myself, and I’m not going to post one of these small snippets regarding Kai. Start of D2 seems like a good time to condense my argument on Kai, so it’ll be a new post in a minute.

[Sando]

Kairyuu:

My case against Kai comes down to 3 things: 1, the Gambit, and what I believe were some holes/scumtells in there. 2, his accusation and arguments with me. 3, his link to Japles. Outlined below are what I find scummy about 1 and 2, read Ojanen’s post (post 140) for 3. I’m trying to make this as condensed as possible. These are listed in reverse order of importance, most important and telling is the linkage to Japles, then the arguments with me, then the gambit is the least important and least telling.

Gambit

The biggest problem I see with the gambit is that it apparently, and is supposed to, have only townies involved in it. The 3 people are Chaos, Korts and Kai himself. Kai deliberately acted scummy, yet expected a scum to go after his target, despite the fact that in Kai a scum would have an easy attack on a townie acting scummy. It makes no sense for a scum to do anything other than go after Kai.

I still think that the trap was designed to be very ambiguous, pretty much anyone saying anything could have been accused using it. I think that Kai saw the opportunity with ‘The Slip’ and decided to throw some fuel on the fire using the trap.

Kai vs Sando

I over-reacted to Kai’s accusation, but more so to going to bed without a vote on me and waking up at L-2.
Kai quickly set up my counter-argument as OMGUS, when it wasn’t
Has consistently attacked my attack itself, not the arguments. He’s called it OMGUS, a misrepresentation (without any evidence of this), and an attack on his credibility:

These are all quotes from Kai

- “You're complete and total obsession with discrediting me is noted, and will be commented on fully in an hour or three once I finish my post.”
- “I wouldn't. See above. Stop trying to discredit me.”
- “OK. So after reading that entire post, all I got was that it was irrelevant waffle and a shot at my credibility. If this is part of your full case then you need to rethink it.”
- “From this post all I got was more waffle and another attempt at an attack on my credibility, this time by calling my case weak and then just reiterating your own actions.”
- “More attacks on my credibility. This is getting pathetic. Pull the other one. It had bells on it.”
- “Instead of actively trying to disprove my case, you came at my credibility as an IC, which irritated me to no end.”
- “however, your implication that this has been an ongoing thing instead of simply one post made while pressed for time is still not appreciated”

Has made some very definitive statements with nothing to back them up:

- “Oh, and thanks for the OMGUS by the way. It definitely tells me I hit this one out of the park. confirm vote: Sando”
- “As soon as you were accused, you immediately went back to dig up anything you could find on your accuser. This is a very bad idea, because it opens you up to all sorts of OMGUS accusations” -

Which he took full advantage of.

- “The things I accused you of are not up for discussion. You did them, and that is that.”
- “He gave a reason, but the reason was crap. I think he is suspicious, but not enough to warrant my vote or attention right now.”

The emotive appeals regarding attacks on credibility especially seem pretty scummish.

Kai and Japles:

Kai is very linked to Japles, read post 140 from Ojanen, it illustrates it perfectly, any further comment from me would merely be restating what she said. This is easily the strongest thing for Kai being scum, he admits it himself. Just because I’m not writing much on it doesn’t mean I think this is minor.

[Infinis]

@Korts: Hmm. So giving a reason such as "because West Wing is awesome" amounts to more than a random vote, and explicitly stating that it is random is somehow different than using a reason such as that?

Personally, the random phase bothers me, especially if it last for an overly long time (and I'm very impatient). I participate because it's the 'in' thing to do, and somewhat amusing, but I will generally try to cut it off as quickly as possible.

@Chaos:

Once the game progresses and discussion develops I will have more solid arguments and evidence to use as a basis.

Any reason you can't try to get the discussion going yourself? Why is it that you need to wait for other people to start the discussion.

The beginning of the now defunct gambit. IN hindsight both ends are garbage. In fact if I was forced to decide which is scummier I'd say the attack on Korts, for the random number problem, which I believe is a null tell.

@Korts:

It's not the fact that Kairyuu's vote was arbitrary that bugs me. It's the fact that he explicitly stated that it's random, pre-emptively defending against any fake cases that might be built on it and giving him another reason to hop off the wagon in case it builds up.

I wonder, does the fact that it has become a serious vote since I made it change your opinion of it? As it stands, I didn't like Chaos' response. He backtracked a good deal when I questioned him, and I find that suspicious. So yeah, the vote is serious.

If Kairyuu is scum, Chaos is more likely as well--random voting a scumpartner is not unheard of by far, and with the attempt at denying any real responsibility for the vote I smell distancing.

It's a valid strategy, but quite a foolish one to use in a Newbie game. When an IC votes a Newbie partner, said partner is going to feel rather more pressured than if anyone else voted them; therefore making them much more likely to slip up and get lynched.

I would consider it poor form.

(Note that this percieved connection is only valid if one of the two turn scum, with it being more valid if Kairyuu is the one that turns scum.)

This is true of all distancing tells.

@all: If you haven't already, please comment on this minor flare-up between myself and Korts.

My underline. Where did this reasoning come from? It didn't hold water so I dismissed your @all request

@Sando:

@kairyuu, I actually read your last IC game, and the game you referenced it from, the gambit was pretty interesting. I did love how you caught out the D1 Goon. When i saw you were IC in this game, I was tossing around in my head trying to work out how to respond to it if you did it here.

It was quite a fun play to make. I was disappointed that people didn't like it much.

The interesting thing, is that this quote paints you as rather scummy in my eyes. You claim to have read the game in question, where there were several townies played it correctly, and you saw my and Albert's comments on that matter. Why then, would you need to work out how to respond if you were town? Ironically, that is almost exactly the description that Adel, from the time MoS came up with it, gave when linking to the game in MD.

I'd be seriously considering that he was using the last game as an example of how good it is for a townie to do while secretly being scum and trying it from the other side.

Heh. I don't even need to make the gambit to catch scum with it. Why would I do it as scum when I made the specific claim that I would not take a risk like that in a Newbie game? When I am scum I try to keep the scumteam intact (as Korts can attest to) as long as physically possible, and throwing myself into a majorly risky situation on page 1 when my partner is probably a new player is very much against my playstyle.

I think you've slipped up friend.

He was also sort of testing it in that game as far as i recall, so i figure he might want to test doing it as scum at some point.

He also said it was something to be used in moderation, so if he did it 2 in 2 newbie games, I'd have to think he was trying something different the second time, which would mean he was doing it as either a scum or as the doctor.

My above point remains valid.

@all: Time to reveal my plan, as it has served its purpose as well as it can right now.

My case on Chaos is utter crap in my eyes.

unvote

I had a twofold goal in mind when making my posts at/about Korts and Chaos:

1. Korts was a decoy. I specifically mentioned that I had a plan involving getting people to comment on our debate so that the scum would "see through" that issue, and react in the way I would expect of a townie; that is, they would agree with me. Based on that, I determined that Sando was quite possibly scum buddying up to me. However, this was the weak part of my gambit, because I can easily see townies buddying up to an IC.

What actually forms the divide between myself and Korts in this case is the fact that I was deliberately acting mildly scummy to get Korts to criticize me (of course, the 'random vote' issue was unintentional, but it served as a good starting point). Someone paying attention to that, and to what Korts was saying, would, as a townie (not 100%, but my estimate is that it's better than 60%) side with Korts and find me scummy, possibly even enough for a vote. A scum, on the other hand, would probably be more focused on the fact that I had a decent case on an easy townie target, and would side with me in order to have that route available to them in the event that the wagon gained steam.

2. My second, and main, part of the gambit was my case on Chaos. His unvote was a null tell in my mind (it could be scummy for the reasons I mentioned, but when he defended himself I got the impression of him being town, so I ran with it). He has defended himself rather well, and looks decently pro-town in my eyes. Sando however, fell right into my trap, establishing himself as backing me against Korts as well as Chaos, the exact behavior I was looking for.

vote: Sando

Given further developments, Japles looks like a townie to me, so does Chaos, Ojanen, and Korts. Sando is likely scum based on the above.

Here is the explanation for springing the "trap" early and some metagame arguments from a previous game. Funny the first person you exonerate is Japles, with the obvious escape clause at the beginning of the sentence

.

@Korts:

Korts' addendum to Kai's Lesson 1: There are multiple schools of thought; full transparency of motives is a valid stance as well, since if you state all your thoughts and the processes leading up to your decisions it will be easier for town to read you, any flaws in logic will be remedied faster, and your thoughts may evoke others to find important clues as well.

QFT. I'll add that to the list for games from now on (and I may even make a wiki page eventually).

Kairyuu, you seem to not understand the term WIFOM. It is correctly applied only in a situation where there are two scenarios of scum and town and neither is more likely than the other.

That is the ideal WIFOM situation, and I understand it perfectly well. However, the number of situations where I have seen people call WIFOM on something that isn't too difficult to reason out far outnumber the cases of true WIFOM, so I feel the point is relevant, even if it isn't worded 100% properly.

Sparking discussion by becoming suspicious yourself is not something to be proud of. In fact, if this is done consciously, you are misleading and hurting town, and not actually spawning constructive discussion since you'e drawing suspicion to the only player you know the alignment of.

QFT. On the other hand, I endorse gambiting in all of its forms unless they are obviously flawed.

This is a very good point. And I can attest to Kai having played it safe in the past as scum in at least one game; but this is not a significant sample size, Kai, and I don't particularly like the implication that it is.

As far as I know it is the

only

sample available of any size. Large enough or not, it's all I have to work with, and I intend to use it.

To be honest, I don't particularly trust the result of your gambit, Kai, since it comes down to whether a particular player felt your arguments were stronger than mine, which opinion may be entirely independent of alignment. At best it is a minor implication toward Sando being scum.

Two-fold gambit. The point with you was minor. I thought I already mentioned that, but meh.

@Sando:

He got all sorts of responses, most of them negative, however he caught the scum because they expressed their lack of understanding of the gambit way too hard. They appealed to emotion rather than logic, scummy. (When i say 'they' I mean the first day scum, I don't remember the catch on the second day one, but it was a 'perfect' game).

Second day scum was a lurker who proved she was reading the thread but not posting. But that is neither here nor there. If you have a point in regurgitating all of this information then I expect to see it soon (note: I'm posting this as I go. I have merely skimmed the rest before now).

Now, my 'tell'. Kairyuu said quite a lot of things that game, i would REALLY recommend that if you wish to vote me over this that you read the thread, if nothing else it's interesting. I've linked it above, just read D1 and the end.

Explain this. Why do people need to meta me before voting you?

(Meta: To read previous games played by a player in order to get a feel for the way they play as scum and town in order to get a read on them in a current game)

Kairyuu, after being hounded for the gambit all game (more for using it in a newbie game than for it being a bad gambit), agreed not to use it again in a newbie game. Now we're deviating into hypotheticals, because i'm now talking about if he'd claimed doc this game.

First off, I agreed not to do it for awhile. I will probably try it again over the summer sometime.

Secondly, All this is is waffle. I see no actual explanation thus far.

If he'd claimed doc this game, he'd have been lying when he said that he wouldn't use it again in a newbie game, not a good start i would say.

But I didn't, so this is totally null.

Thinking meta, i'd have to wonder if he wasn't in fact trying the same gambit and was trying something new, ie not lying due to a technicality. If he did this, he was 1 of 2 things, the doc or a scum.

Really? Why? First off, why would I pull it as scum after having specifically mentioned when I first used it that using it as scum would be a stupid move and I wouldn't want to run the risk of ruining the game for my scumbuddy? Secondly (and this is a theory question that I would just like an answer to), why would I pull a gambit that attempts to draw the N1 kill as its main purpose if I were the actual doc? What pro-town purpose would it serve for me to say "kill me" to the scum when I have a potentially useful power role?

Why would you do it as Scum Kairyuu? For interests sake? To try it out, see how it goes? Since it worked so brilliantly the first time, why not try it out as scum? You're playing a game after all, the way to get better at it is to try new things.

I wouldn't. See above. Stop trying to discredit me.

Why would I have to work out how to respond to it? If you had done it in this game I would not have believed that you were a vanilla townie, simple as that. I would have worked off my belief that you were either the doc or scum. As a townie, I don't really want to be in the position of thinking some is either the doc or scum.

The gambit is

designed

to make you think I am the doc, and allows for people thinking I am scum. How this is any different than the way you would have played it if you were in that game, I am not seeing (especially considering that, while the gambit allows for me to be a vanilla, it relies on the scum believing that I am not).

OK. So after reading that entire post, all I got was that it was irrelevant waffle and a shot at my credibility. If this is part of your full case then you need to rethink it.

KvK was based around Korts complaint regarding Kairyuu 'random' voting. I personally think it is a very silly argument, but hey, it gets discussion going. It's all based on semantics in my opinion.

I like arguing semantics. It's fun to catch scum in a slip in their choice of wording. I'd post a link to a specific game, but it's ongoing.

And unless i misunderstood the question, i stand by this. In my view, Korts got 'angry' at Kairyuu for random voting when he was in fact arbitrarily voting. He also didn't like that Kairyuu seemingly made a big deal out of it. I think it was very semantic of Korts, although i felt that it promoted discussion, which is good.

I believe I've stated twice already now that the minor point of myself vs. Korts was merely an indicator light, and if I hadn't been looking elsewhere as well I would have probably ignored it for the most part.

I should point out that my 'taking your side' was purely on an argument regarding the semantics of random voting, it had nothing to do with you accusing Chaos, which i addressed in my next paragraph:

See above.

Note that i made sure to seperate these 2 things, you're now trying to tie them back together to make a fairly weak case.

My case is weak? They are two completely different points, and one I even

claimed

was not strong. This is Straw Man Argumentation. The fact that one point is weak does not mean that the argument is weak. This is a logical fallacy.

I agreed that there was some scumminess to Chaos's actions, although now that you've retracted them, I guess i now disagree with you. I still believe that his unvote was scummy, whether or not you say it is a scumtell or not.

Your case on Chaos was 100% taken from what I said. It isn't a matter of whether or not you agreed with me. It is more that you didn't even try to put your own spin on the case.

However, I did not feel that you had built a sufficient case on Chaos to make me change my vote from Japles to Chaos. I think my quoted text speaks for itself really, I saw your point regarding Chaos but I didn't think it merited a vote, still didn't even when I went through and pointed out why i thought it was scummy with a timeline of sorts.

One vote a successful bandwagon does not make. I am reasonably certain that, had others jumped on Chaos with votes, you would have been right there with them.

I just want to be clear, I seperated my answers between the KvK debate and KvC debate, i think you're taking my KvK answer and applying it to the KvC debate.

Nope. I addressed them separately, and your single accusation in this post (that my case is weak because one of my points was weak) is a straw man.

From this post all I got was more waffle and another attempt at an attack on my credibility, this time by calling my case weak and then just reiterating your own actions.

Why is this odd? Kairyuu got accused of being linked to Chaos because he voted for him. What does he do? He makes his vote 'serious'. He then says that it would be a silly thing to do in a newbie game, however, this is a quote from the 'doc' game that this blew up over:

I am protective of scumbuddies when I am scum. I would rather a perfect game than one where we squeak by with a single live member. I would consider random voting a scumbuddy in any game to be a stupid move, because it creates a connection that can be looked at later if one of you dies.

Now for the remainder of this point.

Posts 50 and 68 respectively in the game i linked. So Kairyuu has changed his mind and is advocating playing differently in this game when he said clearly in the other game that ICs should play hard. Also, while it is apparently a silly move, you also send a signal to your scumbuddy to not worry about the vote by saying that when an IC scumbuddy votes a newbie it puts pressure on them. This is pretty subtle in saying that he shouldn't feel pressured, but when combined with your previous comments, it seems like a nice way to look like you're pressuring him when you're not.

How does that even make logical sense? I mention it being bad play, and even site an example game, and that means that I am scum doing it? This is a

huge

reach for something that doesn't even make sense. Read the IC guide that Vel posted a link to in post 0. My role as an IC would trump my role as scum. If I were scum and doing that, telling people that it is bad play is terribly unethical, and I would deserve to get kicked from the game immediately and banned from ICing for teaching people wrong information just to get a win as scum.

Now i figure if i can start getting you to talk about a previous game, you'll screw up, and you did, i just didn't notice till now. You've changed your mind from 'don't treat newbies with kids gloves' to 'IC scum need to be careful not to put pressure on their partners in newbie games'. I think the reason you've changed your mind is because you're now scum.

First of all, repeating it does not make it true. Second of all, if you read all of my games in the order I played them you will notice major discrepancies among games of the same alignment. I am still developing a consistent playstyle. Either way, you didn't get me to do what you claim you did, and saying that you planned it all along is scummy as heck.

Wow, people start actually looking at Chaos in depth, and now the case is 'utter crap'. This is pure distancing, you lead the charge on your protege scum, then once you FORCE people to associate their vote on chaos with agreeing with you, you pull the rug out from under them, thereby destroying any scumhunting on chaos.

Firstly, distancing would be my actually trying to get him lynched, which I didn't do. Hell, I unvoted when I was still the only vote on him.

Secondly, distancing tells apply if, and only if, one of the two in question is dead. This has already been stated by Korts.

Then when i reply regarding the Kairyuu vs Korts debate, you attack me for my views on the Kairyuu vs Chaos.

That was kinda the point, which I mentioned when I voted you. This is IIoA (Information Instead of Analysis), which is what approximately 80% of these first 3 posts have been. It's one of Tarhalindur's Standard Tells that I mentioned earlier, and it seems to be an attempt to make it look like you are building a huge case against me when you are creating one or two points out of thin air and OMGUSing me.

You also say that i'm buddying up to an IC, yet the argument was between 2 ICs and you asked us to take sides... You deliberately manipulated someone (me) into getting the tag of buddying up to an IC, there was no way to avoid it.

Saying "I agree with Kairyuu/Korts in their debate" =/= taking my case against Chaos and spitting it back out almost verbatim as your own. Different scenarios even. I didn't

manipulate

you into doing anything. I predicted what a scum would likely do in a given situation, and you fit the description, so I voted you.

Not before your buddy can find something 'scummy' in my post though.

I respond to this, and Kairyuu takes over the 'scumhunting' for Chaos, that's nice of him, don't you think?

So because Chaos asks a question that relates in some way to what I later bring up, not only does he have to be my scumbuddy, but it has to have been a deliberate play on my part? Honestly, your points are coming out of nowhere, and they are illogical to the extreme.

Now, fine that he changes his mind, but it seems pretty oportunistic in light of everything else to jump on someone you previously thought was 'interesting, but not scummy'.

Think about it for a second and stop using straw men. What did I say about Chaos in the

very same

analysis post? That's right, that he was my top suspect for scum. The opinions mentioned in that post were made when I was still functioning under the gambit, and it was before you had walked into it to the point where I was confident enough to attack you.

This all feels like amazing distancing from Kairyuu, he didn't just vote on Chaos, he pulls his vote in such a way that noone else can really vote for Chaos. I still don't feel that Chaos has defended himself adequately, and Kairyuu's defence is

Vote Chaos all you like. Korts still finds him suspicious and I haven't said anything to him, have I? If you are going to make generalizations then make sure they are valid. Plus, my point about distancing still stands.

His unvote was a null tell, but could have been scummy... And when he defended himself, he got the impression that he was town, that's some pretty good scumhunting Kairyuu, thanks for sticking to your convictions like the rulebook says we should.

An unvote after pressure could be scummy, certainly, a weak scumtell, but still scummy. However, his subsequent explanations did not seem scummy to me. Simple as that. I pressure people for reactions when I think that may be scum. Interesting to note is that you are trying to discredit me again with your mention of the rulebook.

On the matter of the rulebook though, it is by no means a complete guide to playing mafia. There are literally hundreds of ways to play, and trying to claim that because I do not play in the style of a rulebook that I haven't glanced at in about 8 months is nothing but a weak attempt to make me look bad.

Kairyuu has distanced, changed his mind from his previous newbie game, and manipulated me into the tag of IC buddying. He's also effectively killed discussion regarding his previous 'suspect' based off his gut. All well and good to vote with your gut, don't destroy the possibility of us discussing it without looking scummy. Kairyuu, you're scum.

So I'm scum based on a case which has literally zero actual valid points? Sure thing. This is OMGUS dressed up with straw men, IIoA, and attacks on my credibility instead of actual scumtells. I am happy with my vote right where it is, and would not be adverse to lynching you right now.

Why the vote for Kairyuu, other than that he's scum? Well I'm convinced of Kairyuu, but I'm still not convinced that Japles isn't scum. The other reason that Kairyuu could be coming after me is that i refuse(d) to remove my vote from Japles. I think the most likely explanation is Kairyuu/Chaos as scum, but i don't discount the possibility of Kairyuu/Japles.

-facepalm-

More of the same.

So, in your 3 posts in rather rapid succession, you have posted almost nothing of value, and instead waffled on and on, and followed it up with logical fallacies, points that directly contradict things that I and other people have said, and attacks on my credibility. Forgive me if I don't see any point in your calling this a 'case.'

Moving on.

I've explained why it isn't OMGUS.

No, you pretty much proved that is was by doing something very similar to what I did myself D1 in the first game I was scum (Mini Theme 658: Facedown and Thirsty Mafia, the one I played with Korts) after getting a few votes on me. I waffled for awhile and then OMGUSed on of the people voting me. I got away with it by subverting the OMGUS call, but I'll not be fooled by my own trick.

When you started taking me out of context and i started feeling manipulated, I went back and reread the thread and some of the 'doc' thread, then i posted my thoughts. You forced me to respond to your accusations, in writing them i realised how manipulative you were being.

So in other words, when other people agreed with me you went back and read to try to make up a case against me that might shift the wagon to me. Not gonna work.

You were a lot more obvious with your manipulations in your last newbie game, and you seem to have changed a lot since then, both in actions and views. Considering you were vanilla then, that doesn't bode well for you being vanilla here.

I changed very little. I'm still pulling gambits whenever I see an opportunity and revealing them to the town. I'm still aggressively pushing my cases. And I'm still playing to catch the scum. The only reason that I didn't come right out with this one before I used it was because doing that would have invalidated it as a strategy by

telling the scum what I was looking for

.

Feel free to correct my view of OMGUS, you making a case against me where i felt manipulated and taken out of context, combined with me knowing that i'm townie, set me to looking at the person accusing me. I didn't think this is OMGUS, but i realise that you want people to think that's why I'm doing this, and i respect that, scum.

Already done. A note though. I am quite impressed by the way you are addressing me as 'scum' instead of by name now. It's quite a good intimidation tactic, and one I've used myself several times.

By the way, as an IC, how come that you know that a quick lynch is almost never good for town, you know i'm at L-2 (you just posted) and yet make no mention of it. Thanks for confirming my views on you.

I like quicklynches. As soon as I am confident that someone is scum I want them lynched so that I can move on to the next scum. It's the way I play, and it is reasonably effective (which, of course, you know, seeing as we lynched the scum roleblocker on page 8 and had a 24 hour D2 that ended the game in Newbie 750, which you seem to only want to cite when it serves your purposes). You can stop taking jabs at my credibility already. None of them have been valid, and I highly doubt that any will.

Kairyuu also didn't let it play out, he saw an oportunity with the doc game comment and went for it. I hadn't even voted for Chaos40 and i've 'fallen into his trap'. That's a pretty pathetic trap, if to fall into it you don't even need to vote for the bait (or even FOS for that matter)

More attacks on my credibility. This is getting pathetic. Pull the other one. It had bells on it.

Since I'm going to bed soon, and last time i did that 3 votes came up on me, and 3 more would be 1 more than needed to hammer, i think we should have the quick-lynch talk. I personally think that one reason Kairyuu didn't post a longer reply earlier was that he was hoping you'd quick-lynch and he wouldn't have to worry about the annoyance of being questioned by me.

See above.

The rest of that post is more IIoA and more attacks on my credibility. In regards to your point on quicklynches though:

@all: As a general rule, it is said that discussion is good for the town, and quickly ending the Day is good for the scum. That is based on some playstyles. Others prefer methodical, swift Days, with a reasonably quick consensus lynch after some scumhunting. I am of that second group. As long as there is enough information for a lynch, I tend to want that lynch to happen. That is just my style, and other styles are perfectly valid as well.

@Ojanen:

@Kairyuu: Confirm vote: wasn't mentioned in the rules, what is it, a game mechanic or a rhetorical device for weight?

It essentially just means that I have been further convinced that my vote is in the right place. More of a rhetorical device than anything.

@all again: Whoooo. That took quite awhile. Have fun sorting through it all.

After this wall of text throwing every logic/debating term kai could find at Sando, I frankly was wondering where the real case was against Sando other than thinking he had only OMGUS and fallacies in his defense of Kai's attacks.

OK breathe, and Ill get back to business