Sorry, been busy at work and forgot about the game after the holiday weekend. Hope everyone had a good Easter.
I'll try to keep this short. I'm not addressing everything, just things that stand out to me on a quick catch up skim/read.
Actually, I have more if anyone would like more in-depth, but for now just posting the summary.
Nvm, I'm just going to make the longer/explanation parts in small font. Magnify it if you're interested. Sorry no summary right now. Maybe tomorrow.
Also, I mostly address Ort in this post, but I think that's because I find him the most town-seeming player and the most rational player who is looking at everything instead of tunneling on specifics.
@Ortolan-
-My main "point" against KidIcarus is NOT lurking. The point against him is that his few posts are contentless "I agree with X". He does not explain why he agrees even when one agreement directly contradicts his previous post/position. I raised this and he denied it; I linked to the originals and he conceded his inconsistency. We continued dialogue and he promised more. This was good (I liked his willingness to engage in dialogue) so I felt a vote was unnecessary. When the mod said he had been prodded but did not say he was looking for a replacement, I asked a clarification and hedged with a vote on KidIcarus. Despite other players making token mentions of also looking at KidIcarus, nobody has actually done so, and my single vote was ineffective. Mod clarified, and has since followed up with a second prod and replaced.
-Disagree with your conclusions about plague usage and I think your proposal, if enforced, sets us up for the dangers I raised about plague claims (dangers which you also raised).
Adopting a "worst case" where scum first-pick apothecary, then chances of 0/1/2/3 apothecaries at end of Draft 2 are 3.7%/22.2%/44.4%/29.6%.
If scum did not pick Apoth in Draft 1, the chances directly reverse to 29.6%/44.4%/22.2%/3.7%.
If we assume that one scum passed on Apoth in Draft 1 (if able), then draft 2 chances become 14.8%/44.4%/37.0%/3.7%
I find third situation most probable.
I agree that scum probably would not prioritize apoth in Draft 1. Apoth was probablybelow plague, NK, and rat. If you maintain consistency in the belief that scum did not pick prioritize apothecaries in draft 1, then it is unlikely that all three scum will be apothecaried by Draft 2.
Ort's proposed plague limitations mean scum can stop (or not waste time starting to) prioritizing apoth and grabbing plague/rat/NK as desired in Draft 2.
*Adding mimics raises the chances of scum fully protecting themselves and teammates, but is much harder to calculate since mimics are much more subjective in picking order and probably depend on what other players passing mimics.
*I assume that the chances of a townie passing scum an apothecary are lower than the chances of scum passing townies an apothecary and these dynamics at most wash out and probably make it more likely that scum have less than the expected number of Apoths.
-What was your point about AM&Kast analysis? The overall tone and conclusion sounds like you think AM is scum, and if he is scum, then you think I was defending my scum buddy. Your individual evidence was hastily gathered and half of your points about Kast&AM are actually about Kast¬-AM or not-Kast&AM.
Ort wrote:appears ambivalent about Budja, whom charter is attacking, but also appeals to Rishi's attack on charter. He is happy to lynch either one of Budja and charter who are arguing against one another, but not AM.
Atm, I am voting Budja and quite willing to lynch Budja. Your claim that I am ambivalent about Budja contradicts yourself in the next line where you admit that I am happy to lynch Budja.
-You are a bit hypocritical. At the time of your post, you explicitly named 4/12 players as "suspicious", and your longest argument/case is admittedly a weak one against a 5th player who is not among your top 4. In contrast I had 3 clearly named people who I was suspicious of and happy to lynch with reasons stated for all three (as well as reasons why I don't feel the same about other players).
-I briefly mentioned Ace's meta previously, but tried not to directly invoke it until the game I was in with him finished. After it finished, I started using that more heavily (for both AM and Zwet).
-I want to caution against drawing false positive conclusions about rat usage. Anyone who passed a rat AND was not passed a rat is cleared of being a rat user, but we do not know if scum first picked rat (entirely possible), and we don't want to let scum drive mislynches on false positive rat identification.
-KidIcarus passed an NK to Kinetic and was not passed any NKs from me. DGB should not have any NK cards. I think I'll repost your list in passing order instead of claiming order so we can see things more clearly.
-*Stealing a page from Ort's book* EVERYONE PLEASE COMMENT ON MY NK DISTRIBUTION PLAN. IF YOU AGREE WITH IT, PLEASE SHARE YOUR PREFERRED METHOD OF PICKING A "CHOSEN" PLAYER (RANDOM/VOTE/OTHER?).
@AM, 393-
AM's case against Charter is weak. Charter clearly *thought* (or claimed to think) that my post messed up his foolproof plan. That itself is not really scummy. Apparently he realized that the benefits of his plan were not actually there to begin with after Kinetic+others gave reasons for claiming "obvious" scum cards.
I think it would have been far more pro-town for him to explain and admit this when he realized it; but his claimed position itself is consistent with his behavior.
@Charter, 397-
My post is clearly your reason for initially changing your mind. Your addressing AM with this is fine. I do want to clarify that my post did not actually legitimately reduce the value of a mass card claim. You have since admitted that you were mistaken about your plans ability to catch scum.
Charter wrote:This is so wrong it pains me. The very fact that you make the argument like this, assumes I am town, which means you are scum (because you assume I'm town, but are still voting me). How is me having (what I Thought was) a gamebreaking plan, but not disclosing it make me scummy? If I was scum, wouldn't I have just kept my mouth shut and not said anything? You are assuming that since I had one, but didn't disclose it upfront, that I have to be scum. This is ridiculous and not how massclaims on day one work at all. You don't explain how you catch scum through massclaim, then claim.
You are correct that some "game breaking" plans require the town to take risks (greater risk balances out the game-breakingness). However, your specific argument against AM is flawed. When considering that you are scum, it means that your game-breaking proposal that you are keeping secret is not actually game breaking (or rather it is probably game breaking for scum).
However, often a "game-breaking" plan that truly gives the town an unquestionable advantage without significant risk also is able to be explained. Being able to explain the plan and get the entire town to follow them is usually part of what makes them game-breaking. Your plan was not one of these; there was significant risk, and explaining it did not affect the outcome.
@DGB-
Interesting assessments. Do you care to elaborate on any of them, or are they each assumed to be obvious? Your system itself seems to give breaks to lurkers/low-content posters.
Also, prior to your announcement as a replacement, I already asked ABR to consider replacing instead of screwing the town by his out-of-game grudge against Zwet. I assumed his comment was directed at that.
Your assessment of my posts clearly marks a difference in opinion between yourself and KidIcarus. Still, could you clarify whether you feel my posts had any significant effect on the value of a mass card claim for the town.
@Charter-
I am happy with my vote on Budja, and atm I prefer a Budja lynch over a Charter lynch. I am content with either.
Since you are well beyond the deadline requirement, I see absolutely no reason for me to move my vote. There is no reason to end discussion prematurely, particularly when new players just came in.
@Mod-
Thanks for the extension and replacements.
). List the points that you think are undeserved, please.
I may be wrong, but since I've rarely played with charter, I can't imagine what else it could be.
