Mini #764: Notre Dame Mafia, Game Over

[charter]

Actually, I want Budja to respond to 350 before I lump Ace with him.

[AceMarksman]

Charter: Ok, say you lynch either of us, what then? What information would you gather from my flip? Also, is there anyone else you find scummy? Anyone that seems obvtown to you?

[charter]

...SO SCUMMY of Ace.

Charter: Ok, say you lynch either of us, what then? What information would you gather from my flip? Also, is there anyone else you find scummy? Anyone that seems obvtown to you?

First off, I note how you completely ignore my shooting down your case. You didn't unvote or respond, so I assume you think it's still good.

What do you mean "what then?" We go to night. Then Day two. Then the rest of the game.
What information would I get from your flip? What?!?!? We see who was eager to get onto your wagon, who ignored it, who gave legit reasons. The same kind of stuff that you get from EVERY wagon.
Is there anyone else I find scummy?!?@? WHAT??? I've repeated that I find you and Budja scummy as hell. How many suspects do I need day one? How many do you have? Why aren't you concerned with others that have more/less/the same number (whichever I'm doing that you don't like) of suspects as me?
Anyone that seems obvtown to me? Several people. Not going to tell your scumbuddies who to kill though.

The fact that Ace comes back with this after I argue against his "case" makes him skyrocket into outer space in scumminess.

[AceMarksman]

First off, I note how you completely ignore my shooting down your case.

You hardly "shot it down" but this is beside the point.

You didn't unvote or respond, so I assume you think it's still good

You assume correctly.

What information would I get from your flip? What?!?!? We see who was eager to get onto your wagon, who ignored it, who gave legit reasons. The same kind of stuff that you get from EVERY wagon.

I realize this, what I want to know is what you personally would get from my flip. Who would you see as scum if I flip town or scum? would it clear anyone? What are the specifics?

Is there anyone else I find scummy?!?@? WHAT??? I've repeated that I find you and Budja scummy as hell. How many suspects do I need day one? How many do you have? Why aren't you concerned with others that have more/less/the same number (whichever I'm doing that you don't like) of suspects as me?

By "other" I meant other than budja and I. This wasn't meant to be an attack or a case, just a question. Is it so wrong for me to ask a simple question?

[charter]

If I didn't shoot it down, then you explain how all those points you mentioned point to me being scum.

I'm also not going to speculate on who I think is what alignment based off yours, because I don't know yours. Scum do, so my speculation only gives them more knowledge and gives town NOTHING.

[AceMarksman]

Actually, the most pro-town course of action for you at the moment is to discuss what the effects of my lynch would be as it appears you are hard-fast set on either mine or budja's lynch today.

[charter]

Well, all I see is that by your inability to explain how the points you raised show that I'm scum means that they, in fact, do not mean I'm scum.

And I'm still waiting on Budja's response to 350. I might explain after he comes back.

[AceMarksman]

here quoted for my convenience (with dashes added for ease of reading)

I have gone back and looked at charter’s posts in isolation, and I have found some scum in them.

-First, looking at his fifth post, he attempts to look town (and almost gets modkilled) by claiming that he is town because of “extra lines at the end of his role PM”. To refresh your memory, this was back when PJ showed us a sample town role PM to explain the mechanics of the Plague card. Notice it was a TOWN PM, so he gained nothing by claiming this (PJ even confirmed what the extra line was at the end and that everyone received it.)

-More importantly in this post, however, he places a “serious vote” on ABR with a promise that he will “explain later”. He has yet to explain this vote.

-Next, in his sixth post, he posts a shady plan that involves massclaiming cards, but won’t clarify it (he even tells us to “not ask him” about it.) This is rather sketchy, as the town knows not of the intended outcome of said “plan.” He keeps refrencing his “plan” in his next few contentless posts. Charter, what is your plan? Are you still wishing to use/implement it? Can you clarify?

-Now, up to his post twelve, charter fully supports a card massclaim, but in thirteen…
[quote="charter"
Yeah, I'm not so gung ho about a massclaim anymore.

And then in fourteen is wholly against it. Why the sudden switch? Thirteen was in response to a kinetic quote which read “you sir, are an idiot.” Why did this change your mind? In fourteen he claims that he is ready to “lynch kast in the next seven posts” but gives no reason besides “I read kast’s post.” [/quote]

-A rather poor way to make yourself look pro town. I feel a town aligned player would not need this, for lack of a better phrase, ploy to gain town points.

-Any time someone votes without giving a reason in the same post gets an IGMEOY from me. The reason for this vote was not fully answered until a few posts ago. This is also not something I would see a town aligned player doing.

-Your plan was concealed from the town. Having a potentially game breaking strategy yet witholding it is never a pro-town course of action.

-You go from supporting a massclaim to being completely against it in the course of 1-2 posts. You also go from what apears to be a neutral read on kast to being "willing to lynch him in 7 posts" for a recent post. This reminds me, what in his post did you disagree with? What points did you wish to bring up against it? I didn't see anything particularly wrong with it (sans how freakishly long it was).

Does that satisfy you?

[ortolan]

charter: do you find Rishi (who is also voting for you) scummy?

What about ABR?

AM: what benefits do you envision from a charter lynch.

From your lynch I see many: it will either disprove or make stronger the link I saw between you and Kast. It will also allow us to better judge the motivation in my observation of you cross-defending both Kast and Budja. It will also provide some clues as to both my and CTD (we are both the only people voting you at present making us busing you unlikely, if a lynch ultimately goes through and you are scum). Finally it will also shed some light on charter's alignment.

[AceMarksman]

From a charter lynch:

If town: It will disprove an ort-charter relationship (which I am seeing). It will make me consider Rishi as a scum candidate

If scum: It will make me feel good about my scumdar. It will strengthen an ort-charter relationship. It will bring up the issue of bussing between him and budja.

[AceMarksman]

do you see anything else from a charter lynch? Maybe shed some light on kast's alignment.

[ortolan]

If town: It will disprove an ort-charter relationship (which I am seeing). It will make me consider Rishi as a scum candidate

If scum: It will make me feel good about my scumdar. It will strengthen an ort-charter relationship. It will bring up the issue of bussing between him and budja.

So if you get charter lynched you'll be able to disprove a relationship which so far no-one but you has posited, and which you have not actually argued for (beyond taking advantage of the obvious fact that I am effectively defending charter at present). And you will push for Rishi's lynch, effectively lining up another lynch for you.

If scum: you line up two chain-lynches, myself and Budja- apparently Budja attacking him, peculiarly, means they are scumbuddies busing; in contrast to the nature of all the other connections you've made. Also apparently

you

can't be a scumbuddy busing him, nor can I. Why is that?

[petroleumjelly]

1.) Be civil.

Some of the more recents posts have definitely been crossing the line of civility. Please keep the game enjoyable. Thanks.

[ortolan]

KIDICARUS and ZEENON, PLEASE CLAIM 1/4 NK CARDS AND RAT CARDS (IF YOU ARE IN POSSESSION OF EITHER) IN YOUR NEXT POST, THANKYOU

I believe this list is accurate, please correct me if I'm wrong:

I don't have either
Kast has a rat and an NK
zwet has a rat
Budja has neither rat or NK
Rishi has rat
ABR has neither.
CTD neither
AM has neither
Charter has an NK
Kinetic has an NK

This list means, in the chance that someone is night-killed and someone else used a doctor protect on them- this person should claim and we know that one player with a rat card is scum- then presumably they all claim night actions, one is lying etc. Good shortcut to catching scum. I considered whether all night actions should be claimed at the beginning of each day (scum can't necessarily work out that much about what cards you will get later because they don't know whether a card you used was drawn from your own deck or someone else's, and they don't know what cards you will get passed to you later anyhow.) However this leaves the problem of announcing plague targets, which makes them

clearly

anti-town, if they weren't already, and also does give scum a fair bit of information (if you used sanctuary that round, you probably won't use it next, if you used doctor that round, you probably won't use it next). So I would think mass-claiming night actions after the fact is bad,

unless

specifically you doctor protected someone who died anyway.

ATTENTION AGAIN: PLEASE READ AND COMMENT ON THE FOLLOWING IN YOUR NEXT POST, TO NOT DO SO IS FLAGRANTLY SCUMMY:

Here is my full argument for why plaguing should either not be done, or should be done on night 1:

1) Assuming optimal scum play, scum have a 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 + ? (chance of having been passed an apothecary card to make up for any shortfall) chance of each having apothecaries already. If you use plague night one, then that's before anyone has access to cards from the second draft, at which point scum will have a 2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3 + ? (chance of having been passed an apothecary card after two separate drafts).

Assuming optimal play, townies have a 1/3 + ? (chance of having been passed an apothecary), plus a 2/3 + ? on the next draw.

I'm not sure if the maths on this is convincing but the point is that if all mafia are apothecaried, the plague can no longer serve any pro-town purpose. The mafia have the opportunity to make up any shortfall between them in not getting apothecaried if e.g. one player 0 but another mafia player has 2. Townies do not have this ability to make up any shortfalls between one another. By draft 2, especially after we've discussed this extensively, mafia are very very likely to all be protected. If they are not all protected, then they are very very likely to have used apothecary on their most scummy-seeming players, which means if you just vig the scummiest, even if you're right, it won't do anything. The only way you could hit the unapothecaried scum is by vigging randomly, which is far more likely to kill townies, especially at that point.

Mafia may not have prioritised apothecaries on their first draft, thinking e.g. they could get claims of plagues and then either could apothecary one another or could have a townie volunteer. But after this discussion they certainly will on draft 2.

Finally, sanctuary is a card mafia can safely use and claim, and claim to have used on themselves even when e.g. they might have actually used it on another of their scummates who they expect to get vigged (because they themselves know they look pro-town and are highly unlikely to be), and no-one would be any the wiser.

So, if you are pro-town, use your plague night one, or not at all. I would ask that you show restraint however. Additionally if you have an apothecary I believe you are best off using it by night 2 (the earliest time you can die from it is the start of day 3).

Mod: can I confirm that plague deaths take place at the beginning of the day i.e. they are essentially night-kills delayed one night but they resolve after all other night-actions?

[ortolan]

^^^ and specifically the reason I need everyone's input is that if we can agree that it's blatantly anti-town to use plague after night 1 (including via mimic) then we can policy-lynch anyone who does so, which is desirable.

[ortolan]

(if it's proven they did)

[AceMarksman]

If town: It will disprove an ort-charter relationship (which I am seeing). It will make me consider Rishi as a scum candidate

If scum: It will make me feel good about my scumdar. It will strengthen an ort-charter relationship. It will bring up the issue of bussing between him and budja.

-So if you get charter lynched you'll be able to disprove a relationship which so far no-one but you has posited, and which you have not actually argued for (beyond taking advantage of the obvious fact that I am effectively defending charter at present). And you will push for Rishi's lynch, effectively lining up another lynch for you.

-If scum: you line up two chain-lynches, myself and Budja- apparently Budja attacking him, peculiarly, means they are scumbuddies busing; in contrast to the nature of all the other connections you've made. Also apparently

you

can't be a scumbuddy busing him, nor can I. Why is that?

-I have noticed it, but you haven't looked especially scummy, it's just a connection that I've noticed.

-No. Chain lynches are NEVER (well, almost never) a good idea. This is borderline a misrepresentation of what I said. I said that it will bring up the issue of bussing between budja and charter, but will be far from making it mean they are scumbuddies. I never said that you can't be scumbuddies with him, but I know that I can't because, well, I'm not scum.

The quoted was a blatant spin of my recent post, and I request that you refrain from doing so again.

[ortolan]

Ok, let's be clearer. If charter is scum, why is it that, for example, the attack by charter on Budja is a "bus", but, for example, the attack by charter on you guarantees your innocence?

[AceMarksman]

Niether is certain, and I never said it makes me innocent (I know that I am, but this is up for you to decide), and I never said that he

IS

bussing budja, I just said that the possibility rises (as it does in ALL games of mafia).

[ortolan]

Rishi and zEEnon are both currently voting for charter. Why did you not raise the possibility of one or the other of these being busing scum, if charter flips scum?

[zwetschenwasser]

Um... OMGUS?

[Rishi]

What on earth was I supposed to respond to? You gave a heavily narrowminded and slanted summary of part of my early play. That's not a case at all. There's no questions for me to respond to or anything. All you said was 'charter thought massclaim would be a good idea, but dropped it after being shown differing opinions'.

No, that wasn’t all I said. What I said is that, earlier in the game, you made a statement that anyone who keeps a 1/4 NK card or Plague would be 100% guaranteed scum (or something like that). Then, when people started to claim that they had those cards, you didn’t even say anything about it. You completely ignored the issue. What is your opinion on this now? Should people keep or pass those cards? And if your opinion changed, what changed it? What was your reaction when Kinetic revealed he kept those cards (I think he was the first one to reveal)? What do you think of Kinetic in general?

Rishi's been added to my suspects list. She's really posted little of substance all game- I think I counted 3 posts expressing anything meaningful. Her case in 224, her longest post of the game features one quote by charter and a 4-line case after it.

Please get my gender correct. There’s a reason that I put a gender tag in my information, which you can find on every post.

Also, have you read any of my other games? This lack of content is nothing new, I’m sorry to say. I am extremely busy in real life, which is why I only tend to play 2-3 games at a time (plus modding). It’s a null-tell, to be honest. I don’t believe in lurking as a strategy – I just honestly don’t have time to post a lot.

And, by the way, I don't think you're doing it consciously, ortolan, you realize that your long posts and constant monitoring of the thread are part of the reason that people can't keep up. You can't make the thread hard to follow and then turn around and accuse people of lurking. I'll tell you the same thing I told Kast, though. There is no correlation between amount of content and alignment, so I don't think you're scum - in fact, I find you one of the most pro-town players in this game. But, that lack of a correlation works both ways.

[zwetschenwasser]

Way to be anal...

[charter]

-Any time someone votes without giving a reason in the same post gets an IGMEOY from me. The reason for this vote was not fully answered until a few posts ago. This is also not something I would see a town aligned player doing.

Why does not giving a reason for a vote I don't keep long (and pretty sure I was the only one voting him at the time) make me more likely to be scum than town? Just because you don't see town doing something, doesn't mean town won't. This isn't a valid argument because it hinges on what YOU personally think.

-Your plan was concealed from the town. Having a potentially game breaking strategy yet witholding it is never a pro-town course of action.

This is so wrong it pains me. The very fact that you make the argument like this, assumes I am town, which means you are scum (because you assume I'm town, but are still voting me). How is me having (what I Thought was) a gamebreaking plan, but not disclosing it make me scummy? If I was scum, wouldn't I have just kept my mouth shut and not said anything? You are assuming that since I had one, but didn't disclose it upfront, that I have to be scum. This is ridiculous and not how massclaims on day one work at all. You don't explain how you catch scum through massclaim, then claim.

-You go from supporting a massclaim to being completely against it in the course of 1-2 posts. You also go from what apears to be a neutral read on kast to being "willing to lynch him in 7 posts" for a recent post. This reminds me, what in his post did you disagree with? What points did you wish to bring up against it? I didn't see anything particularly wrong with it (sans how freakishly long it was).

Go back and read kast's post. It ruined ALL hope of massclaim being effective.

Does that satisfy you?

No, that actually makes your vote even weaker and me more sure you are scum.

charter: do you find Rishi (who is also voting for you) scummy?

What about ABR?

Rishi has just been a lurker. From what I recall, his vote on me was pretty early, and while bad, I think it came before Ace and Budja were caught, so the scummiest thing I see from it is that that is all he can add to the game, when there is a lot he is just ignoring.

ABR has just been useless. Haven't seen anything scummy from him.

If town: It will disprove an ort-charter relationship (which I am seeing). It will make me consider Rishi as a scum candidate

Completely illogical conclusion. Also if this is the only benefit of lynching me when I flip town, you need to move on to someone else, because that's really zero reason to lynch me.

If scum: It will make me feel good about my scumdar. It will strengthen an ort-charter relationship. It will bring up the issue of bussing between him and budja.

You feeling good about your scumdar isn't a reason to lynch anyone. UMMMM, HOLD ON. How can it bring up bussing between me and budja? Budja isn't even going after me. This is also a ridiculously weak reason to lynch someone, even if you "think" they are scum.

Oh, I see ort set this mess straight in 411.

Ort, as far as the apothecary stuff goes, don't scum have to use it on the night they would be killed?

No, that wasn’t all I said. What I said is that, earlier in the game, you made a statement that anyone who keeps a 1/4 NK card or Plague would be 100% guaranteed scum (or something like that). Then, when people started to claim that they had those cards, you didn’t even say anything about it. You completely ignored the issue. What is your opinion on this now?

That I was narrowminded and wrong.

Should people keep or pass those cards? And if your opinion changed, what changed it? What was your reaction when Kinetic revealed he kept those cards (I think he was the first one to reveal)? What do you think of Kinetic in general?

I still don't think they should keep them, but I don't see it scummy of them if they do. My reaction to Kinetic was that he had a good idea, one that I didn't think of. I think Kinetic is way less scummy than most of the people in this game.


I might even be leaning Ace over Budja at this point.

[AceMarksman]

Rishi and zEEnon are both currently voting for charter. Why did you not raise the possibility of one or the other of these being busing scum, if charter flips scum?

Oh, I completely forgot about them (mainly because we haven't heard much from them) but zEEnon's vote is from the RVS, no?

This is so wrong it pains me. The very fact that you make the argument like this, assumes I am town, which means you are scum (because you assume I'm town, but are still voting me). How is me having (what I Thought was) a gamebreaking plan, but not disclosing it make me scummy? If I was scum, wouldn't I have just kept my mouth shut and not said anything? You are assuming that since I had one, but didn't disclose it upfront, that I have to be scum. This is ridiculous and not how massclaims on day one work at all. You don't explain how you catch scum through massclaim, then claim.

How do you glean this bs from my argument, huh? You claimed to have a good plan, but we wouldn't know which alignment your plan was good for. A pro town player would give as much information as they could, therefore I infer that your plan was not a pro town one.

Go back and read kast's post. It ruined ALL hope of massclaim being effective.

You were against a massclaim before kast's post, no?

Rishi has just been a lurker. From what I recall, his vote on me was pretty early, and while bad, I think it came before Ace and Budja were caught, so the scummiest thing I see from it is that that is all he can add to the game, when there is a lot he is just ignoring.

You keep making these generalizations like "there is a lot he is just ignoring" or "he has been so scummy." Rishi also asked a few of the same general questions that I did, why did you answer mine with a more callous tone than his?

because that's really zero reason to lynch me.

Because being scummy isn't reason enough..?

You feeling good about your scumdar isn't a reason to lynch anyone.

This part was a joke, I see you didn't pick up on that.

UMMMM, HOLD ON. How can it bring up bussing between me and budja? Budja isn't even going after me.

Bussing can work two ways, and you seem to be going after him. Again, I said this BRINGS UP THE IDEA of bussing, it does NOT MEAN THAT YOU ARE.

Zwet, stop being the peanut gallery and do something. ABR seems to have dissapeared, and I would like to hear his thoughts on this. Another goomba post would be nice (with the precondition that it be abridged)