I'm going on vacation tomorrow with limited access (until the Tuesday after next) so I feel obligated to say something relevant first.
Zach
Spends a large portion of Day 1 passively supporting millarwagon. Keeps his random vote (I assume) on millar as he gets run up. First truly relevant post:
Zach wrote:It's just that reading those two quotes gave me the impression that he might know Millar is town, and is distancing himself from the lynch. (IMO, a millar lynch is inevitable. He's claimed scum, and pointed out his top doc suspect.)
I get weary of people who don't vote when they throw out bad town excuses, but pave the way for a "reluctant" vote later.
Right on target, I didn't bother quoting the AT quotes he's referring to but this is precisely one of the biggest problems I have with Andy.
15: Points out another instance of Andy's apparent certainty that millar is town. This one's an even better example, he's trying to make an argument for potentially keeping millarscum alive but continually implying he knows millar will flip town.
16: Votes Andy for contradictions and the fishy millar hammer. This is entirely consistant with what Zach has said previously.
27:
Zach wrote:Did you actively avoid the bandwagon as scum so that you could name off everyone on Millar's bandwagon and say OMG scum is on the wagon?
This looks scummy to me. It's also the kind of argument you can use to blend yourself as town, cause you can go back and say, "The wagon was scum driven and Look, I wasn't on the wagon."
This is a response to Pablo's accusation of the entire millar wagon. Again, good logic, still not having a problem with Zach. He is a little light on content through this point but, y'know, I can't complain.
34: Votes Empking for an apparent slip. Suspicions of Andy appearing to drop off the face of the earth. But it comes back a couple posts later...
His interactions with Pablo imply to me that Pablo would not be a very good kill fromthe perspective of Zachscum. It just doesn't make any sense, Pablo would have made a great lategame target for Zach based on this.
48: Backpedaling a bit on supporting the Empwagon but it is backed up by previous posts somewhat. I get a town vibe from this post.
Zach wrote:Not dropping it. I will explain my suspicions, do analysis, and help the town as best as I can. Like I said, I hate this game, and am getting quickly fed up with the one liner back and forths that are 10-20 posts long that don't motivate me to read the few content posts within the fighting that doesn't help anything at all. Everytime I make an effort to try to understand what is going on, there's a whole new barrage of posts to go through. It's very frustrating. (I do have other games that don't even come CLOSE to this pace.)
Extremely frustrated-townie-esque IMO.
51: Doesn't want to lynch zwet because of the precedent of the preceding two lynches (players who all but lynch themselves and turn up town). Within a couple posts he gets a bit PO'd at zwet and notices that his Emp hammer contradicts his constant suspicions of dej D2 and votes for him. Fair enough.
Yeah, I don't see any problems here. I doubt any connections to Andy, in particular. However, he has almost completely ignored most of the living players which hypothetically could make him a good scumbuddy for any of them. At the very least I doubt I'll be voting for Zach today, certainly not until a scum has died and even then it would take some convincing for me.
Phail
Ugh, I've been dreading this analysis for weeks. Here goes.
phail 0" wrote:Contradiction: Millar13 states that self-voting is a scumtell, then says it is helpful.
Self-voting is never useful to your faction. Millar13 is encouraging self-voting to the common faction,which is town. In conclusion post 17 is encouraging anti-town acts, and is therefore anti-town.
First post and he's already acting super-logical. Obviously it's a playstyle thing but it's weird.
phail 3 wrote:It seems to be a consensus that empking should be lynched through meta. I say Nyet. The guy hasnt said two words on the post. We have no evidence to prove that he is scum in this game. A townie, no matter how anti-town is still a mislynch. We shouldn't use his meta in this game.
Against lynching Emp based on meta. Lynching Emp wasn't a serious possibility yet IMO despite the large number of votes he got early, but this is more of that playstyle thing. And I'm not going to bother quoting further instances, but they're constant.
phail 12 wrote:Alright, this post is getting way too long with the post, so im gunna cut it short here and summarize it as best I can. Rofl was pointing the gun at emp, then identified giiuseppe and zwet as scum buddies. Giuseppe gets nervous and starts counterattacking.
Rofl was on to something, I believe that this was the reason that the scum killed him. This, along with Dejkha's massive post, seems like a good enough reason to think that giuseppe is scum. Vote: Giuseppe
Extraordinarily WIFOMy, but based on the fact that he's a Goon and has 41 posts in this game this must be his first, so that's excusable. An argument could be made that this is intentional but I don't believe that. Even as scum he wouldn't know better so this isn't a tell.
phail 19 wrote:It is my belief that the mafia will do a couple of things during the day.
Their main objectives will be:
1). Stop the Town from lynching them during the day.
They can accomplish this through a couple of ways (I'm only listing a few because I do not know all of them.)
1). Bandwagoning to make a quick lynch (although with the 2 votes when it takes 7 to lynch D1 makes it kinda hard for them to quick lynch).
2). Framing someone to make a mislynch.
3). Reducing suspicion on them to the point where the town will lynch anybody except them, which will cause a mislynch.
Possibly a bit too much insight into the scum mindset especially for a raw newbie (which btw shocks me), but AndyTony is a much worse offender in that category so I'm inclined to categorize this as slight.
phail 23 wrote:So, because emp has yet to post anything of substance, it is hard to pin him as scum, except through association. I still believe that it would make alot of sense if zwet and him are scum buddies. But, emp himself is hard to pin.
If we had a cop, we wouldnt have this problem, but here we are with no cop, and a hard to read, and a less than helpful townie.
+1 town point.
Noteworthily, in 22 he thinks Emp/zwet is the most likely scumpair but two posts later has changed his mind and thinks Emp is town.
And, I can't even finish this. The one thing that really sticks out to me with what I've seen so far and the impression I've gotten from phail throughout the game is that he's very preoccupied with ensuring that all his statements can be backed up with almost perfect logic. Especially at the beginnning. Is this a specific, intentional defense mechanism for a new-ish scum who is afraid of getting caught in lies or craplogic? I don't know and I wish he had a meta I could use as a comparison. dej's suspicions of phail have some merit as well, I'm sure I didn't touch on all the points he's made. I'm flip-flopping on him at this point.
As for dejkha, since I haven't done him yet. He's almost beyond suspicion for me at this point, he just seems like glaringly obvious town. I'll look through his posts at some point to make certain I'm not just crazy, but throughout the game I've gotten the impression that he's been the most useful and active scumhunter. The only reason I have to question him is the simple question: why isn't he dead yet? Do the scum disagree with me, or am I completely wrong? I don't want to leave theoretical dejscum with a free pass here, but honestly at this point I think that if dej is scum, he pretty much wins and deserves it, so why bother thinking about it.
I've got to go back and see what dissuaded me from thinking Andy was likely scum yesterday, because I know I found some things that now I'm thinking are especially scummy by comparison to what I'm not finding on other players. At this point he's probably my top suspect. And honestly his Zach/phail theory doesn't make much sense to me either, and it completely disregards Pablo's death (and Pablo/Zach interactions are most of the case). It also has nothing to do with phail... is there an earlier suspicion there that I missed? Or are you just hopping on the general suspicion of phail that I think more than one player has expressed? Unfortunately there aren't a lot of connections between any living players that I can see and most of us haven't come under serious attack by other living players so I can't really come up with especially likely pairs. I think we'll likely end up looking more for what isn't there than what is.
Also, Grimmy. There's no way in hell to get scumtells on him, he never says anything no matter what his alignment is ever. But the fact that I'm not seeing obvious scum and don't even have more than one solid suspect makes me think he's a fairly likely scum.
I would consider making a vote but I don't want my vote hanging in one place for over a week in what's probably LyLo.
