Mini #764: Notre Dame Mafia, Game Over

[charter]

If you mean am I voting Budja because he's voting me? He's voting me from his first post, so no.

Interesting that you're so interested in my Budja vote.

[AceMarksman]

Interesting that you would say it's interesting. Interestingly enough, the word interesting is coming up a lot.

Anywho, I was just wondering about it, because I didn't see what you found negative about his 5 and 16.

As for the first part: d'oh.

[Budja]

re. my Post 5, I was wanted Kinetic to tell me what he thought of a point in Kast's post. I was lazy, yes Scummy, no.

re. Post 16, yes it was a bit weak but I had promised to post later and felt obliged to do so. But my comment on ABR is not "useless", surely you can see that his campain against zwet is a "little" over the top.

I also have notes of more than one occasion where Budja defended AceMarkman for no apparent reason after a lazy early attack. I sense possible scum-buddies.

Now lets make this clear. I never intended to defend Ace as such. I was asked why I thought that one of Ace's posts could have been scummy but then wasn't several times and was attempting to explain myself. No-one is attacking Ace over that post anyway.

@Ort, I have neither rat nor nk cards.

[CrashTextDummie]

-"Oh Shit": I don't think there's any way to prove to you that I thought I had royally screwed up the town by not keeping my 1/4 nightkill.

And I don't think there's any way for me to believe that you thought as such. Allegedly, you passed the 1/4 nightkill for the specific puprose of denying the person after you a plague card, because, in your own words, it "would be the worst card to pass to scum". I agree with this assessement, and therefore cannot comprehend how you could have thought you had screwed up the town.

-Kinetic votes: If I were trying to throw my vote around to somewhere it would stick, wouldn't my vote be on zwet or something?

I'll get back to this.

Which leads to:

-zwet: In the early parts of the game, my vote on him was mostly policy (and fear of him having plague, and rat, AND double), but now I don't feel he is the best vote for today.

Define "mostly policy". When you places a vote on him, you stated in no uncertain words that you "sensed scum motivation". That's pretty much the oposite of a policy reason to vote.

Also, define "early parts of the game". You stated you were happy with a Zwet lynch as late as Page 10. Only very recently have you changed this opinion. How exactly did you arrive at this change of heart, by the way? Cause it's not entirely clear to me.

-slicey: I have read him through in isolation, but that doesn't give me much info. I'm actually looking at a connection between him and ABR, whom we haven't heard much from recently. I've also been really bogged down with homework, but it's spring break now, so I'll have much more time.

You didn't take a stance. You implied that my vote against Slicey could have merrit ("I see what you're saying"), but you didn't commit to it ("I must think on this"). The reason I have a problem with this is that there was nothing to really think about. You read his posts (which takes VERY little time), and either you think they're scummy, to whatever degree, or you don't.

I can see no reason why a pro-town player would make a post like that. I can see plenty of reasons why scum would make a post like that, both if Slicey is your buddy or if he isn't.

If necessary or more promissing, I'm willing to switch to Budja or Slicey depending on what his replacement has to say.

...and I get the feeling that he's throwing his vote around in order to find something that sticks.

Hm, I find this a little contradictory. Here you say that you are willing to place your vote on someone else if it will stick, or am I reading this wrong?

I am announcing who I am willing to pursue today as things stand, which is valuable information for the town considering we're one week away from deadline and the game isn't progressing at a rapid-fire pace. There has been very little drive so far to get anyone lynched, and I have stated clearly which wagons I would support, for what reasons and under what conditions (in Slicey's case).

That is not in any way comparable to what I'm accusing you of. To be blunt, I think your reasons for voting so far have been crap, and I can't see them as genuine suspicions a pro-town player would have.

Incidentally, who are you suspicious of right now? Last we heard, you were "not sure about Kinetic" and thought "Zwet is [...] either Idiot town or scum". That's the only two people you've attacked in any capacity so far. I am forced to assume that you are not particularly suspicious of anyone right now. Considering you've scolded others for not voicing suspicions before, that's awfully hypocritical of you.

PS: Kast and AceMarkman need to stop posting in mod colors. It bugs me.

Wait, what?

Post 126. Kast has done it more often than you. Just a minor annoyance I had as I was reading the game.

I also have notes of more than one occasion where Budja defended AceMarkman for no apparent reason after a lazy early attack. I sense possible scum-buddies.

Now lets make this clear. I never intended to defend Ace as such. I was asked why I thought that one of Ace's posts could have been scummy but then wasn't several times and was attempting to explain myself. No-one is attacking Ace over that post anyway.

I am attacking him over that post. And I have no problem believing that it wasn't your intention to defend Ace. The way I see it right now, I find it distinctly possible that you attacked him in an early-game distancing effort and then had to find reasons to drop it. In that sense, your intention wasn't to defend Ace, it was to cover your own ass.

But what about this post:

Ace comes off impatient and isn't putting up a good defence but my gut says he is clumsy town now.

What was your intention here? Surely not to defend Ace, am I right?

[Budja]

@mod: note sig

[ortolan]

I would appreciate it if you'd post a suspicions list with your opinions on every player AM. Who do you think the scum are?

[Kast]

@CTD-
I use OOC tags for anything directed at the mod. It's very different formatting from how he has posted messages. If the mod would like me to change, I will do so.

@Mod-

You posted that you were prodding KidIcarus, and then again that you are replacing Slicey. Rishi and Charter both posted. KidIcarus has not. Can we safely infer that KidIcarus received/replied to your prod?

@KidIcarus-
If you're still following this game, please address the points you promised.

If you got your prod but are intentionally not posting, I will be very comfortable voting for you.

@Rishi-
Hope you get better soon. If your condition keeps you from being able to play, you may want to seek replacement instead of pushing yourself through pages of text (health>game).

[CrashTextDummie]

Kast, got any opinion about AceMarkman or Budja?

[petroleumjelly]

Day One Vote Count #7

2 AceMarksman (ortolan, CrashTextDummie)
2 charter (Budja, Rishi)
2 Kast (KidIcarus, Kinetic)

1 Budja (charter)
1 CrashTextDummie (ZEEnon)
1 Kinetic (AceMarksman)
1 zwetschenwasser (Albert B. Rampage)

With

12

alive, it takes

7

to lynch and

4

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is April 15, 9:59 pm CDT.

Not Voting – 2 – Kast, zwetschenwasser

ZEEnon replaces Slicey. No, you may not assume that KidIcarus has picked up his prod, and I will neither confirm nor deny whether that has occurred.

Budja will be on V/LA from April 11-14.

[zwetschenwasser]

IMO, rapid 180's are nulltells.

[AceMarksman]

Wait, didn't you scoff at my "179"?

[zwetschenwasser]

Does 179 look like 180 to you?

[charter]

I'm doubting zwet is scum, but considering policy lynching him because now he's gone to even more ridiculous levels with these last few posts.

However, I feel we can safely lynch scum with either Ace or Budja.

[Budja]

Ah, give it a rest Charter.

Removing random vote -

unvote

.

[charter]

All aboard the Budja wagon!

[Budja]

I'll get a post out before I leave.

[ZEEnon]

○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○
Hey guys. I'll be the replacement for Slicey.
I briefly skimmed through the game before I replaced into
this, and I was really sure I was replacing scum.
Shows how good my scumhunting is ...
More than 200 posts have gone by since Slicey posted.
Anyways, i'm still re-reading, (on page 10)
but I already feel moved to do this:

Vote: charter

Here's hoping for a good game!
○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○

[Kast]

MAIN THOUGHTS:
-Reread Ace and Budja.
-I can understand other players seeing Ace as suspicious, but I think his play is consistent with meta as a townie.
-Budja does not appear to be buddying. He may be trying to stir trouble without stepping on toes.
-Charter has a reasonable point about Budja, but also did not adequately address the point that Rishi raised.
-I don't think we are in much danger of no lynch; we have one week and only need 4 votes.
-I am okay with lynching any of KidIcarus, Budja, and Charter. KidIcarus has preference until he posts or if we hear he is being replaced. I don't like how he promised to answer and said he would be able to do so, but then disappeared when I started relaxing pressure but prior to delivering on his promise. I think there are legitimate points against Budja and Charter.
-I think I need to do a re-read on ABR in context, some small things jumped out at me while reading Ace and Budja (mostly things that I hadn't realized he was the one who posted).

VOTE: KidIcarus

@Mod-

You posted that ties at deadline result in first come, first served. Does this mean that if one player reaches 4 votes, then another player reaches 5 votes, but then drops back to 4 votes, the first player will still be lynched?

@CTD-
I posted thoughts on most players already, but I'll look again at AM and Budja in isolation, then context for anything that jumps out. If this takes too long, I'll post this now and finish later or tomorrow.

I will add that I have played one game in which Ace played a vanilla townie (and also replaced a roleblocker). He was pretty careless and flip-flopped with his vote in both cases.

I am currently in another unfinished game with Budja, but have not played any complete games with that give me any meta-read.

AM:

6- I don't understand what "^this" means. It seems like declaration of intent to plague Zwet or possibly ABR. Is this correct?
8- Questioning and badgering Kinetic seems a bit like trying to buddy with me (I admit I may have bias in my analysis). Also, you just expressed a reason why you would use a plague card. It is a bit weird that you can't apply your own reason/thought process to Kinetic-townie doing the same thing.

AM's beliefs about vigs makes him sound like a newbie. It is a terrible idea for vigs to announce themselves prior to killing and almost always just as bad to announce their intended target. I think I missed when ABR agreed with this bad strategy/belief.

15,20,30 (others)-I think Ace is reading all of my posts, but I don't think he is understanding everything that I have posted. It also sounds like he is looking for me to "solve" the game. He did this in our other game as well.
26-I think this is an anti-town request to make. I think it is consistent with AM's previously stated (and also anti-town) belief regarding vigilantes.
29-He said almost the exact same thing on Day 1 of our previous game. The town followed it up by lynching my top suspect who turned out to be scum. Ace then began Day 2 by calling for my lynch with primary reason that Kast is clearly the most pro-town player.

I think Ace is looking for me to provide a solid/decent case to wagon. I could see both town and scum Ace doing this.

43-I don't think you completely understand what a policy lynch is. Lynching Zwet based on his past meta and/or for behavior that does not indicate that he is scum would be policy lynching. Policy lynches should never take priority over lynching suspected scum. Policy lynches are more acceptable on Day 1 because there is less concrete evidence to indicate that any player is more likely to be scum.

Zwet is right to call you out for this.

30 Revisited- This thought is aimed at CTD.

I don't get the impression that you claimed at all. He is clearly not advocating Zwet's lynch; he is asking ABR to look elsewhere. The easiest suspicious read I can get from this would be that Ace may be trying to convince his scumbuddy and provide a way for ABR to release pressure on what looks like a stalled Zwet wagon.

Overall, I don't think he has done or said anything extremely suspicious. I could see him as either scum or a newbie townie. Based on meta, I know he (at least sometimes) plays like a newbie when town.

The biggest and most concrete point against him that I can see is his statement that he might use his plague card against obvious scum, but also his belief that any townies intending to use plague should claim beforehand and name their target.

I think townies who think another player is obvious scum should use their plague as soon as they can. If they do not see any obvious scum, it would be better to wait until Night 2 to use their plague cards. In either case, they should not announce their target or even their desire to use a plague card, until after it has been done and then only if they see something that drastically changes their mind.

Budja:

5- Once again, I admit bias, but I agree that it is a good point that I raised (although it is being used out of context).
Charter-To be clear, you object to this because he is using my words instead of directly stating that same point in his own words? In the event that Kinetic had a strong rebuttal to that thought (he didn't), using my words relieves Budja of any responsibility for that post. It also lets him appear to be contributing, when he is actually just parroting other players. Is this an accurate representation of your objection?

This is possible. I don't see a reason to suspect this is any more likely than Budja legitimately believing that my quote was a valid point.

6-I don't understand the "This." Please explain.
11-Already addressed the OMGUS issue. Ace is clearly calling Kinetic's vote for Kast a pure OMGUS vote and voting because he thinks OMGUS voting is a behavior inherently worthy of being voted for.
You use the term scumslip here. If you felt that Ace's reaction sounded faked, that would not be a scumslip. It would also not be compatible with claiming agreement with Zwet's post.

It is possible that Budja was looking for an easy mislynch target. This doesn't really look like effective distancing.

13-I don't think telling Zwet to use Plague, then Double is the most responsible way to use the cards. If he is scum, we can't count on him to be honest with us. If he is a townie, we can count on him to be honest, and it would probably be better to give him a day to improve his guess about who is scum and who is town.

Pushing him to use the plague on Night 1 seems more likely to result in an extra townie death than necessary. Budja is not the only player who is pushing for this option. Other players who did this should also be watched.

17-You (and you alone) should rely on your gut feeling. Humans are pretty amazing sometimes, and often our gut feelings aren't as baseless as we think, but rather are a result of things we may have realized subconsciously. Day 1 in particular is a good day to rely on gut feeling, since we have little to no objective information.

This whole post sounds like an attempt to avoid stepping on any toes.

Overall- I have a much weaker read on Budja after my re-read. Initially, I had an impression that he was asking questions and trying to arrive at conclusions without making poor assumptions. I don't agree with one main point (I don't think there is evidence of buddying with Ace or that ), but it does seem that he may have been trying to avoid stepping on any toes while also instigating others.

@Charter, 306-

His explaination made sense and any hope of massclaim being good was ruined by that point so I dropped it.

This explanation doesn't fly. Your hope of a massclaim being good was that we could find players claiming cards that Ace, Kinetic, and Zwet have claimed. Your stated reason why that hope is gone is that my post made it so that scum would lie and not claim those cards anymore. Those cards have been claimed. The thought that my post would stop those cards from being claimed has demonstrated to be false.

If you recognize that any of Ace, Kinetic, or Zwet's reasons for picking those "scummy" cards is legitimate, then you should also admit that the concept of identifying scum by seeing who claimed those cards was already flawed. If you believe that absent this possibility, a mass claim is not a good idea AND if you failed to consider this response to a mass claim prior to pushing one, then it shows that my discussion was extremely pro-town and prevented us from engaging in a flawed plan that would actually benefit scum.

Note, that I don't actually think a mass card claim would overall hurt the town (it would probably be mostly neutral and marginally positive).

@ZEEnon-
That sounds like a serious vote for Charter. Please explain.

[Budja]

I don't think telling Zwet to use Plague, then Double is the most responsible way to use the cards.

Its either that or Rat then Double. It is the best option unless Zwet wants to double either rat or plague (bad) or use both (also bad). Playing the double second allows him to double a card in his second draft. It logically the best choice.

I don't understand the "This." Please explain.

Just showing that I agreed with the quote and wanted too hear peoples responses to it.

It is possible that Budja was looking for an easy mislynch target.

Ace is an easy target. If I was looking for a mislynch, I would be on his wagon now.

My top suspect at the moment are ABR for extreme tunnelling on zwet (easy to get away with due to zwet's meta) and his posts have been very, very slim on content.

vote:ABR

[Kast]

@Budja-
If Zwet is scum, we can't control or verify his card usage.
If Zwet is a townie, and we expect that he will listen to player suggestions, then it is just as viable to suggest that he play Double then Plague as it is to ask him to play Plague then Double. Double then plague is not an inherently bad choice. Both plagues could be targetted to the same player if he is uncertain of two suspicious players. If he is fairly certain that two players are scum, then it would be his duty as a townie to target each of them.

Your arguments against Zwet using Rat are irrelevant and distract from my point. I have made my thoughts on Rat clear, and I have already stated that Zwet could Double+Plague and double target a single player.

[Budja]

1. I don't want Zwet to double plague. Two many plague kills are unwise and I don't really trust zwet to vig that much.

2. If he Plagues then doubles then he could use the double for a likely better purpose if he gets better cards next draw.

This is largely irrelevant discussion anyway. I offered my advice to zwet, whether he follows it or not is up to him.

[CrashTextDummie]

I am severely displeased that both Ace and Budja have ignored my last post. Severely displeased. I am also displeased by the fact that Kast did a lot of the work for them, but I realize that I have provoked this by asking for his opinion. Clearly I should consider the consequences of asking for Kast's opinion in the future.

Still, both Ace and Budja have posted before Kast's wall of text, and they both avoided my accusations. Scummy.

Also, I find it funny that Kast says he sees no evidence of Budja buddying with Ace, and in the very next post Budja calls Ace an "easy lynch" and a mislynch waiting to happen. Makes me feel worse about Buja than Ace, by the way.

I briefly skimmed through the game before I replaced into
this, and I was really sure I was replacing scum.
Shows how good my scumhunting is ...

Alarm bells. Enjoy your read.

[Budja]

But it would be easy to place my vote on Ace. He does look like an "easy lynch" to me or at least an easy lynch to push.
How is this scummy? Its just my observation of the situation.

You wanted me to tell you why I posted my view on Ace, correct? Ace had already been considered scummy by a few people. I thought it sensible to give my view of him. I have a "gut-feeling" that Ace is clumsy town, is stating this going to make you all drop your cases? I think not.

[zwetschenwasser]

Crash's excellent point is noted.

[charter]

Budja-Ace-who knows
We can end this day now, with a lynch of one of these two.

Hey guys. I'll be the replacement for Slicey.
I briefly skimmed through the game before I replaced into
this, and I was really sure I was replacing scum.

We have our third candidate.