Mini #764: Notre Dame Mafia, Game Over

[petroleumjelly]

Day One Vote Count #6

2 charter (Budja, Rishi)
2 Kast (KidIcarus, Kinetic)
2 zwetschenwasser (Albert B. Rampage, charter)

1 AceMarksman (ortolan)
1 CrashTextDummie (Slicey)
1 Kinetic (AceMarksman)
1 Slicey (CrashTextDummie)

With

12

alive, it takes

7

to lynch and

4

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is April 15, 9:59 pm CDT.

Not Voting – 2 – Kast, zwetschenwasser

Searching for a replacement for Slicey.

[Rishi]

Got my prod. Have the flu. Will try to catch up once I feel better.

[Kast]

@Ortolan-
I am unclear of the value of claiming Rat cards in isolation.

@All-
I am assuming that active players have already claimed about NK cards. I'd be happy to hear some feedback on my proposal for NKs since we gain a very tangible benefit. I expect that scum are thrilled to let it slide under the table and be forgotten, but since only one player has even commented on it, I guess maybe even townies are having problems understanding it?

[Kast]

@KI-
You promised a response to explain your assumptions that I questioned you about. Please deliver on that promise.

@Charter-
You also promised a post (content unspecified). Please deliver.

[ortolan]

@Ortolan-
I am unclear of the value of claiming Rat cards in isolation.

There is no town motivation for playing them unless one is forced to by the cards one has. IF we mass-claim them we may catch scum using them in some instances, otherwise it will discourage scum from using them and thus make town protection abilities more likely to succeed. As I said, I don't see any harm at all in claiming them- they are simply an anti-town card.

[Kinetic]

My main issue with it is you're forcing townies to gather more than they're fair share of 1/4th NK cards instead of other cards which may be more beneficial to the town.

In my plan (every townie is responsible for their own 1/4 NK card) we may not catch a scum on virtue of an extra NK being used, however we guarantee that an extra NK will NOT happen.

In your plan you're forcing what may be 4 townies to collect a card which may not be useful to them or the town, and pass cards which might (doctors, apoths, sancs, etc), because if they pass a 1/4 NK that was passed to them it would go against your plan.

Not to mention that a lot of your posts just rankle my nerves. When I have more time to read the books you post I'll be able to put my finger on the why, but otherwise it is just a feeling.

[charter]

ANYONE who claimed to take the 1/4 vig first round is 100% guarenteed scum. This is entirely worthless to town, and any other power is far outweighs 'not letting scum have 1/4 vig'. I would find anyone who took the plague card first round to be extremely suspect as well. Anyone who took it over the 1/2 cop card I'd call guarenteed scum for sure.

After Kinetic claimed taking the 1/4 vig, charter definitely didn't say anything about it. He didn't even blink. Then he disappeared for a bit, and started being a cheerleader for lynching zwet. Didn't even mention Kinetic once for making this statement. Now I don't think Kinetic is scum for taking the card, but it seems that charter has completely changed his position on this point, without even mentioning it. Plus throw in the fact that his method of scumhunting is "massclaim and hope that the scum are dumber than the rest of us" and then essentially posting "lynch zwet" ad nauseum and you have his play in a nutshell.

Vote: charter

I was narrowminded and only saw things from one side. His explaination made sense and any hope of massclaim being good was ruined by that point so I dropped it.

My LOS is Ace, Zwet, Budja in no particular order.

Budja is scum. Look at his posts in isolation. Look at 5 and 16 and he is going out of his way to not vote people.

unvote, vote Budja

There really wasn't much to talk about. I'm trying to steer clear of Kast because I can't argue that much.

I can't really justify a Slicey vote now that he's flaked based off just that one bad post of his.

[AceMarksman]

Got my prod. Have the flu. Will try to catch up once I feel better.

Feel better!

There is no town motivation for playing them unless one is forced to by the cards one has. IF we mass-claim them we may catch scum using them in some instances, otherwise it will discourage scum from using them and thus make town protection abilities more likely to succeed. As I said, I don't see any harm at all in claiming them- they are simply an anti-town card.

yes, but the most pro town course of action is to take a rat if given the chance to prevent scum from getting it. I don't see where a rat claim helps at this point in time.

[zwetschenwasser]

@Ortolan-
I am unclear of the value of claiming Rat cards in isolation.

There is no town motivation for playing them unless one is forced to by the cards one has. IF we mass-claim them we may catch scum using them in some instances, otherwise it will discourage scum from using them and thus make town protection abilities more likely to succeed. As I said, I don't see any harm at all in claiming them- they are simply an anti-town card.

I've got Rat.

[ortolan]

yes, but the most pro town course of action is to take a rat if given the chance to prevent scum from getting it. I don't see where a rat claim helps at this point in time.

It's not for finding people scummy by virtue of having a rat card. It's to trace when they were used later. Please claim rat cards people, there is no reason not to.

[Kast]

@Ortolan-
Actually fair point. I agree that I don't really see much harm in claiming Rat cards. I don't think the benefit is large, but it does seem like potential (low chance) benefit with practically no risk.

My second pick card was a Rat (picked over a Mimic). The pick mostly reveals my first pick card (or at least strongly narrows it down based on my publicly shared beliefs so far). If anyone thinks I should share it, I am willing to do so.

My main issue with it is you're forcing townies to gather more than they're fair share of 1/4th NK cards instead of other cards which may be more beneficial to the town.

In my plan (every townie is responsible for their own 1/4 NK card) we may not catch a scum on virtue of an extra NK being used, however we guarantee that an extra NK will NOT happen.

There are 4 possible states:
-{Charter, Kast, Kinetic} contains zero scum (38.18%)
-{Charter, Kast, Kinetic} contains one scum (49.09%)
-{Charter, Kast, Kinetic} contains two scum (12.27%)
-{Charter, Kast, Kinetic} contains three scum (0.45%)
If we follow your plan, then three of those states guarantee that scum will have an extra NK. (61.82%)
In the one state where scum do not gain an extra NK, your plan forces 3 townies to gather more than their fair share of NK cards.

Compare to my plan, scum can optionally gain an extra NK in most cases, but we guarantee capture of that scum. I am willing to take this 1-for-1 trade (and potentially 0-for-1), over a 60% chance that scum gain a 1-for-0 with the town.

In my plan, AT MOST 1 townie gathers more than his fair share of NK cards, and that 1 townie can be selected randomly or voted on by the town.

Your plan could work from a theoretical standpoint if every player had already grabbed their own 1/4 NK. We know this is not the case.

Your plan also means that any scum who have already taken an NK card but lied and claimed to have not done so, will be able to get away freely with that lie.

I prefer the plan that gives the town useful information and has the greater chance of preventing an NK.

In your plan you're forcing what may be 4 townies to collect a card which may not be useful to them or the town, and pass cards which might (doctors, apoths, sancs, etc), because if they pass a 1/4 NK that was passed to them it would go against your plan.

Correction, I favor double passing over single passing; this is what Ortolan commented on.

Also, to be clear, your plan forces up to 9 townies to take cards that are not useful to them with up to 3 of them being forced to take 2 useless cards. My plan also forces up to 9 townies to take cards that are not useful to them, but only 1 of them will have 2 useless cards.

Your plan requires townies to pass useful cards (doctors, apoths, sancs, etc), whereas mine does not. Yours forces them to pass up on these cards on their FIRST pick.

Mine removes the option of picking the NK from the second pick, and guarantees that the third pick card is unplayable.

From a townie perspective, I believe it is better to keep your own picking options open and limit those of players whose affiliation is unknown to you.

But maybe you just didn't understand my plan as proposed...(actually, based on your post, it sounds like you did not understand it).

[CrashTextDummie]

Alright, I've reread in more detail now. First of all, I feel that most of the talk about mass-claim and proper use of drawing/using cards has been an unproductive waste of time. Very few people have been hunting scum, and it's put a strain on this game.

Thoughts on individual people:

The person I feel most strongly about right now is AceMarkman. His "Oh shit" reaction in Post 99 rings patently false to me. He claims not to have realized the implication of passing a 1/4 NK card, which shouldn't be of concern to him since the alternative was passing a PLAGUE card.

I liked neither of his two Kinetic votes, and I get the feeling that he's throwing his vote around in order to find something that sticks. Although to his credit he's one of the few people advocating actual scum-hunting, he's not doing much in the way of productive scum-hunting himself. Post 148 is a perfect example of this: He asks for less use of WIFOM, only to place a vote on Zwetschenwasser that is based purely on WIFOM.

His stance on Zwet in general is something I don't like. He switches freely from blatantly advocating his lynch to arguing against it. And Zwet was absolutely right to call him out on this blatant fishing attempt.

Lastly, what little interaction I've personally had with him so far has given me rather massive scum-vibes:

CTD: I see what you're saying. I must think on this.

How's that thinking coming along? As a matter of fact, what is there really to think about? Slicey's collective body of work in this game takes about a minute to read. The fact that AceMarkman doesn't take a stance on this indicates to me that he's hedging his bets. I haven't decided yet what that makes me think about Slicey, but it definitely makes me feel that AceMarkman is scum.

-----

Speaking of Slicey, the fact that he's getting replaced pretty much means that my vote on him has outlived its purpose. It was mostly designed to get a reaction from him. I do think that what little he posted was somewhat scummy, but it's not enough to lynch him over. I'm witholding judgment until we hear from his replacement.

-----

Charter's vote against Budja has merrit, for the reason he mentioned. I also have notes of more than one occasion where Budja defended AceMarkman for no apparent reason after a lazy early attack. I sense possible scum-buddies.

-----

Ortolan I feel is town as he has given me strong town-vibes on several occasions, and this is also true of Rishi and charter to a lesser extent. I feel neutral about Zwetschenwasser, but I agree with Kast that he has not displayed any anti-town behavior so far. Kinetic and Kast have been the main instigators of theory discussion, and I feel they have done little but. They should change that. ABR has been mostly useless so far, and suffice it to say that I've seen more inspiring play from him in the past. I may have to reread KidIcarus, as I have almost no notes on him (I did note down his Post 66 as bad, but that's pretty much it).

----

Unvote, Vote: AceMarkman

If necessary or more promissing, I'm willing to switch to Budja or Slicey depending on what his replacement has to say.

Less theory talk and more analysis, please. I'm not willing to lynch anyone over the cards they have or chose to draft today. Discussion about this should stop.

PS: Kast and AceMarkman need to stop posting in mod colors. It bugs me.

[Kast]

The limitations to card picking for both plans averages out, although in Kinetic's plan, the death of the player who has drawn an NK is less bad, and in my plan, the death of players who have not drawn NKs becomes less bad. Given that we only have 3 claimed NKs out of an expected 4, this also creates a marginal benefit for my plan.

[zwetschenwasser]

I'm sort of at a loss as to the benefits of Ort's rat claiming idea.

[AceMarksman]

*sigh* CTD, it feels like I've answered your points a million times.

- - -


-"Oh Shit": I don't think there's any way to prove to you that I thought I had royally screwed up the town by not keeping my 1/4 nightkill.

-Kinetic votes: If I were trying to throw my vote around to somewhere it would stick, wouldn't my vote be on zwet or something? Which leads to:

-zwet: In the early parts of the game, my vote on him was mostly policy (and fear of him having plague, and rat, AND double), but now I don't feel he is the best vote for today.

-slicey: I have read him through in isolation, but that doesn't give me much info. I'm actually looking at a connection between him and ABR, whom we haven't heard much from recently. I've also been really bogged down with homework, but it's spring break now, so I'll have much more time.

If necessary or more promissing, I'm willing to switch to Budja or Slicey depending on what his replacement has to say.

...and I get the feeling that he's throwing his vote around in order to find something that sticks.

Hm, I find this a little contradictory. Here you say that you are willing to place your vote on someone else if it will stick, or am I reading this wrong?

- - -

ABR, where did you go? We haven't heard much from you. What do you think of the goomba's recent posts and Slicey's disapearance.

Kast, I've been looking at your plan and I like it. It makes sense to me. Who would you have be the "Chosen One" as you put it?

As for rat cards, I am not in possetion of one of these.

Charter, I don't fully understand your vote. What reasons did you have, again? How did those cooincide with what you quoted? You bring up posts 5 and 16, are you talking about posts in game or posts made by budja?

[zwetschenwasser]

As I've said TWICE, you were scared because I had good cards?

[AceMarksman]

PS: Kast and AceMarkman need to stop posting in mod colors. It bugs me.

Wait, what?

As I've said TWICE, you were scared because I had good cards?

As I've answered TWICE, yes I was. ABR supplied sufficient meta against your vigilante skills.

[zwetschenwasser]

WTF? I've NEVER been a fucking vigilante. He couldn't have meta on my vig skills.

[AceMarksman]

should be "vigilante or other pro-town power role".

[zwetschenwasser]

Nope. That's not what you said.

[charter]

Charter, I don't fully understand your vote. What reasons did you have, again? How did those cooincide with what you quoted? You bring up posts 5 and 16, are you talking about posts in game or posts made by budja?

The 5 and 16 are if you filter his posts, his post 5 and 16 I feel are scummy. Add in the fact that he's not voting, and I think he's just waiting for a wagon to form to hop on. If I recall, Zwet isn't voting either, another reason I'm suspicious of him.

[AceMarksman]

Nope. That's not what you said.

I realize this, I should have proofread.

[AceMarksman]

Meant to add this to 321:

Charter: I don't see anything particularly wrong with Budja's 5 and 16, could you explain what is scummy about them?

[charter]

Considering I am after you, I can confirm you are not lying about the cards you passed.

@Kinetic, what do you think of this -

It will allow scum to kill dangerous investigative roles and plan around protections.

Kast seems to be making a valid point here.

He's arguing against Kinetic using Kast's words.

Ace comes off impatient and isn't putting up a good defence but my gut says he is clumsy town now.

Zwet is neutral to me. I would like ABR to stop his campaign against zwet and comment on other things too
( ironically, your posts seem to have equal or less content than zwets)

Where is Slicey?

Posts to give a neutral read on two people, a useless comment about ABR, and a lurkerhunt on Slicey. This post was very weak and served no town purpose.

[AceMarksman]

I actually think budja's 16 is helpful as it was posted during ABR's crusades against Zwet IIRC. Not as much content as, say, Kast, but not lurking.

Are you sure that your vote is not based around OMGUS, charter?