Mini 771 - Mafia in Ludd: Game Over


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Post Post #150 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 12:00 am

Post by Patrick »

At this point I'm fairly sure Xdaamno is just making up reasons to still have his vote on me, even if he's town. I have to admit his last few posts make me waver a little on him, but he's still my best lead atm. Regardless of what he does with his vote, I'd like to hear his thoughts on the alignments of some other people.

OGML - I can see what you're saying about charter, but it doesn't seem good enough for a vote to me. Why do you think Xdaamno is town?
Ether wrote:That is what I was doing. Heh--looking back at your 85 I think I misread your interpretation. I'm not sure what you were getting at with "strange," looking closer. I agreed with OGML and didn't vote you for it.
Yes, your agreement raised an eyebrow. It just seemed pretty early to be saying that.



=======================
Page 7 Votecount

camn (1/7): Korts,
charter (1/7): OhGodMyLife
DizzyIzzyB13 (3/7): Ether, Incognito, charter
Ether (0/7):
Green Crayons (0/7):
Incognito (0/7):
Korts (0/7):
OhGodMyLife (0/7):
Patrick (1/7): Xdaamno
skitzer (0/7):
Xdaamno (3/7): Yosarian2, Green Crayons, Patrick
Yosarian2 (0/7):

Not voting (3/12):

skitzer, DizzyIzzyB13, camn

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.

Countdown To Deadline
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Post Post #151 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 2:10 am

Post by Xdaamno »

I really don't know what I can see to these attacks (except the following one.) Phrases like "...making up reasons..." from Patrick just make it seem like he dosen't understand what I'm saying.
Yosarian2 wrote:
Xdaamno wrote:You're blatantly ignoring what I have said. I showed why the vote could have some kind of purpose, and said I wanted you to either show me the benifet of removing it, or show why it cannot possibly have any value. You have failed to do either. Yes, the vote is probably useless. However, that small chance of being useful (by some strange mechanic) in and of itself makes the vote useful. Read this paragraph until you understand what I am saying.
The point is, we have enough information at this point so you should be able to have some kind of better-then-random vote on someone. Do you think your vote on Patrick is more likely to be on scum then a random vote would be? Because it really didn't sound like it based on your earlier posts.
I haven't looked, but probably. I got caught up in this silly argument, but I will try and get back to scumhunting now.

(The point I was making was not that my vote was optimal, but that it wasn't harmful for me to be voting Patrick instead of voting no-one.)
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Post Post #152 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 2:27 am

Post by Patrick »

Xdaamno wrote:Perhaps the vote is obsolete. I haven't done the mental legwork to decide if I think it is or not. Therefore, the 'expected value' of pressure from this vote is still above 0 (and would be even if we all believed otherwise, because we could all potentially be wrong.) If there is no negative to keeping my vote here, I'm drawing a net positive and so it's not worth removing.
Xdaamno wrote:You're blatantly ignoring what I have said. I showed why the vote could have some kind of purpose, and said I wanted you to either show me the benifet of removing it, or show why it cannot possibly have any value. You have failed to do either. Yes, the vote is probably useless. However, that small chance of being useful (by some strange mechanic) in and of itself makes the vote useful.
Both the above gave me that impression - it should be clear that a vote on someone where you've said that you don't really suspect them and that you're leaving it there for pressure doesn't cause any pressure at all, hence my comment of you making up reasons. In this case I could see it as just a pride thing where you're town.

What don't you think I understand? You said this before about my town looking defence as well, then didn't come back when I asked.
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Post Post #153 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 3:26 am

Post by Green Crayons »

Incog wrote:wut
Dizzy
:
Dizzy started off well, taking Ether's initial line of suspicion and applying it elsewhere - to where she thought it might be more applicable instead of towards Incog. There's no harm in piggybacking off of someone's logic if you agree with it, and the fact that she applied it beyond Ether's scope means that she wasn't just being a drone. The fact that she didn't necessarily agree with my camn suspicions (I only saw her agreeing with the fact that camn was actually responsible for backing up her claims in 32) shows that she was able to distinguish between initial D1 logic - once more, not being a drone/copy cat/etc.

Incog's criticism of "taking things seriously" fell flat with a good explanation from Dizzy. Her continued explanation of her Skitz opinion/vote looked solid to me. Incog's "Dizzy isn't scumhunting" was pretty random, since there were several players who, by page four, didn't look like they were scum hunting - some with less activity than Dizzy. The most apt criticism at this point in time would be playing a bit conservative, but as long as the player is focusing on legitimate discussion points then there isn't really much to fault for that kind of play on page four.

Dizzy has been asked very similar questions by different players at different points in the game (e.g., re: my initial heated discussion with camn, re: her initial Skitz observation, re: her initial Skitz vote). I find her responses to be consistent (thus, leans to the notion that she isn't lying), rationale and believable. And apt, as per her 105 comment towards charter. Over all, while I think she has been conservative in the sense that she hasn't gone all out in terms of the breadth of her (voiced) suspicions, it's clear that there are some reasonable wheels turning about in that head of hers. All the points made against her have been interesting but dismissed, poor and easily dismissed or off the mark and easily dismissed. The fact that they keep coming up leads me to believe that it's entirely possible one of these other players are scum looking to see if there is an easy lynch due to some Dizzy hate. And, while it's possible that her hesitation to make a case against another player is that she's scum not wanting to throw her chips in to a potentially ruinous argument, I think her posts show that she's willing to make a stand. Which leads me to believe that she just doesn't want to make a mistake. While this eventually might cripple her ability to play well at all - for fear of an almost entirely inevitable mislynch/case against a town in high doses is toxic to the town - I can't fault her (nor see how anyone else can) for conservative play while we're still in the single digits of pages for the game.

Ether
:
I'll preface this with I go into games with certain players I already know/know of through observation with a predetermined mindset of "town until proven scum." While this group isn't very large, there are a couple in this game. Ether is one of them. Therefore, she started out this game as "slightly protown" for me. This has nothing to do with anything with their meta, or about how I perceive them as a player/person, except for the fact that the way they analyze players in a game is (what I find to be) analytical and easy for me to read, because that is - by and large - how my mind operates with approaching mafia. So, I usually slide them a bit towards the town side until I see some major BS in a faulty/scum attack on town, because that's where I would be able to find a scum slip from them - and I feel confident enough that I would catch such a slip.

Anyways. Ether started out pretty great with going straight to business. This is almost always a good thing, regardless of how weak the support may be - it's mostly through reactions and the occasional slip-up that the fruit of the labor of initial D1 suspicions can be gleaned. Her "weakens but doesn't counter" line when shown with evidence to the contrary of her thinking was pretty meh and didn't fly with me. And then the fact that she made a mere obligatory nod towards Skitz (42) was off-putting, since one of the reasons Incog's evidence was weak and not countering was because she couldn't imagine who else could have had such limited access. It made her look like she was just looking for an excuse to harass Incog or that she didn't think her point of attack had any lasting weight (regardless of to whom it was directed) but didn't want to own up to it or that she didn't want any attention to fall on Skitz.

I originally thought it to be option number two, but when she questioned my FOS on Skitz (76), which I thought to be entirely reasonable, it had a bit of a strange conjunction with her previously ignoring Skitz. I also didn't like her "I'm going to blatantly fencesit" and not comment upon some going ons that ended 76, as if it was a taunt towards my FOS. It missed its mark. (My FOS was for Skitz trying to look like he agreed with everyone, not that he couldn't make up his mind; any mislabeling of "fence sitting" is easily cleared up through the definition given with the FOS.) But, the next time she posts she's back up to form - asking probing questions and suggesting her own suspicions. What I find interesting, however, is that it isn't until here at 113 why we see she didn't pursue Skitz after her early basis of attack.

Regardless, Ether has provided active and useful posts, when they're being made. The content is usually helpful to continue the thread's flow of conversation, and it doesn't look like she's trying to post without saying anything. What I find to be most suspicious is that she seems distracted and isn't paying that much attention to the game. While this isn't necessarily an alignment issue, it does give her a cover for her increasingly infrequent posts. But, it's entirely possible this is just a hiccup in her activity level. Therefore, I find her to be leaning town.

OGML wrote:They both seem town, and this kind of town-town debate threatens to totally muffle anything else for the rest of the day, leaving us with a lot of nothing to work with, and providing a big fat shield for the real scum to hide behind.
Do you think the mod's deadline is so close that the rest of the day will be dominated by the GC/X argument?

I do, however, agree that we (that is, X and myself) have gotten too interested in the details. I'm more than happy to argue a point by point basis as seen on the previous page, but I'm of the opinion that it does more to muddy the waters than to clear them for outside observers - thus, much more harmful than good. Be that as it may, I still hold firm in my suspicions of X, but am hoping/expecting the thread to move along before we call it quits for the day.
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Post Post #154 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 4:00 am

Post by Xdaamno »

Patrick wrote:
Xdaamno wrote:Perhaps the vote is obsolete. I haven't done the mental legwork to decide if I think it is or not. Therefore, the 'expected value' of pressure from this vote is still above 0 (and would be even if we all believed otherwise, because we could all potentially be wrong.) If there is no negative to keeping my vote here, I'm drawing a net positive and so it's not worth removing.
Xdaamno wrote:You're blatantly ignoring what I have said. I showed why the vote could have some kind of purpose, and said I wanted you to either show me the benifet of removing it, or show why it cannot possibly have any value. You have failed to do either. Yes, the vote is probably useless. However, that small chance of being useful (by some strange mechanic) in and of itself makes the vote useful.
Both the above gave me that impression - it should be clear that a vote on someone where you've said that you don't really suspect them and that you're leaving it there for pressure doesn't cause any pressure at all, hence my comment of you making up reasons. In this case I could see it as just a pride thing where you're town.

What don't you think I understand? You said this before about my town looking defence as well, then didn't come back when I asked.
Well, you clearly don't understand my logic for leaving the vote where it is. Simply put:

There is no advantage to me removing my vote, but there is only
probably
no advantage to me leaving it where it is.

I don't particularly care, but I object to people saying leaving my vote where it is is illogical and therefore scummy.
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Post Post #155 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 8:43 am

Post by DizzyIzzyB13 »

Surely any theoretical benefit to leaving your vote on Patrick has been nullified by tghe nature of the discussion about it?
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Post Post #156 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 8:58 am

Post by camn »

Vote Patrick
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Post Post #157 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 12:00 pm

Post by Incognito »

Reading through recent stuff as best as I could, I don't find Xdaamno's "lack of an unvote despite finding Patrick's reaction to his vote town-ish" to be that bad. I know that there have been times where I've had a vote on someone that I didn't necessarily think was doing much anymore, and I didn't bother to remove it simply because I couldn't find anyone else or anything else interesting enough to move it to, so I'd leave it where it is for the time being because I think having a vote in a certain location is usually better than having it remaining in the "Not Voting" column. I'd like to see Xdaamno's thoughts about other people.

Did we ever get a response to this:
Post 128, Patrick wrote:
Xdaamno wrote:As I said above, I'll now try and explain why I thought this post was town. The "this is just the way I post" defense is something I think I see quite a lot. It completely misses the point, but I can just put myself in the shoes of a town player being confused at why they are being attacked. I feel a scum player would not react in this way, because defensiveness would typically be a more dominant emotion than confusion is such a situation, IMO.
Can you explain how I missed the point? You say my phrases might indicate a scum alignment, I tell you it indicates nothing, what did I miss? I know that aren't trying to get me to change the way I post.
Also, what's your take on GC?
I saw it quoted along the bottom of 131, but I didn't see any kind of reply to it. I'm interested in the bolded blue portion in particular.

It's weird actually -- I just get the feeling that Xdaamno wasn't really reading the thread that closely (if at all) up until he entered the massive argument with Green Crayons. The fact that he
a)
missed my question about my Dizzy-vote,
b)
missed Patrick's question about his issue with his questioning of OGML, and
c)
the two posts he called people out for (Patrick's 85 in Xdaamno's 88 and charter's 92 in Xdaamno's 93) were two of the most recent posts made when Xdaamno finally decided to begin posting again following his initial post all strongly suggest this.

@Xdaamno:
Have you read any portion of the thread prior to when you entered this argument with GC? Any thoughts on that stuff?



I'll make a separate post about other things if I feel the need to right now. I don't want to get too lengthy at this time.
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Post Post #158 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 12:43 pm

Post by Incognito »

Other stuff:

-~- DizzyIzzy's Korts-read scares the shit out of me.
-~- camn, Ether, and to a lesser extent charter seem townish. (camn and Ether are meta-reads; charter's more of a "having certain intangibles" read).
-~- I really, really, really wanna add Patrick here but it worries me that he didn't give me those instant town vibes that I'm used to receiving from him in past games we've played. I'm wondering if that's because he's been out of action for awhile or if he's just scum for once.
-~- It sucks that most everyone else seems to be in the "to be determined" bin.

Mod:
Could you prod skitzer if you haven't already?
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Post Post #159 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 4:12 pm

Post by OhGodMyLife »

Unvote, Vote: Patrick
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Post Post #160 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 5:19 pm

Post by charter »

*Goes off on a rant about hypocritical bandwagon votes* :roll:
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Post Post #161 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 8:19 pm

Post by Ether »

Patrick, what was weird about my agreement?

I don't agree with Canary's take on Izzy at all; at the same time, I acknowledge that much of my distrust for her is for reasons that are true for other players--particularly Xdaamno. I want both of their top threes. (But the reactive vibe isn't all of it--Izzy's 32 still sets me on edge. Even if she insists that she was being neutral on Camn, "Green makes a persuasive argument" right after he voted her just feels wrong there. I also dislike her recent 155.)

(As for Canary's criticism of my own play--yes, I did assume that Incognito was the only player on vacation at the time, and when I learned otherwise, I thought my reasons for not moving to Skitzer were self-explanatory until Camn brought it up. My comment about fencesitting on Korts was self-deprecating humor, not a knock on you. My activity rate is a fair point, though.)
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Post Post #162 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 10:48 pm

Post by Xdaamno »

Incognito wrote:
@Xdaamno:
Have you read any portion of the thread prior to when you entered this argument with GC? Any thoughts on that stuff?
Yes, of course. If I notice anything interesting, you'll be the first to know.
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Post Post #163 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 11:01 pm

Post by vollkan »

Skitzer has been prodded
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Post Post #164 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 12:42 am

Post by DizzyIzzyB13 »

Incognito wrote:Other stuff:

-~- DizzyIzzy's Korts-read scares the shit out of me.
How so?
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Post Post #165 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 2:46 am

Post by Incognito »

Xdaamno wrote:
Incognito wrote:
@Xdaamno:
Have you read any portion of the thread prior to when you entered this argument with GC? Any thoughts on that stuff?
Yes, of course. If I notice anything interesting, you'll be the first to know.
Errr. Okay. And the answer to the GC question is?
DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:
Incognito wrote:Other stuff:

-~- DizzyIzzy's Korts-read scares the shit out of me.
How so?
Your read of him just differs from mine. The fact that you found something "pro-town" about him disturbs me. I have him down as neutral leaning scummy.
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Post Post #166 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 2:52 am

Post by Xdaamno »

Incognito wrote:
Xdaamno wrote:
Incognito wrote:
@Xdaamno:
Have you read any portion of the thread prior to when you entered this argument with GC? Any thoughts on that stuff?
Yes, of course. If I notice anything interesting, you'll be the first to know.
Errr. Okay. And the answer to the GC question is?
What GC question? Yes, I've read the game before my 'talk' with GC. No, I haven't noticed anything interesting.
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Post Post #167 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 2:55 am

Post by Incognito »

Post 157, Incognito wrote:Did we ever get a response to this:
Post 128, Patrick wrote:
Also, what's your take on GC?
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Post Post #168 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 3:18 am

Post by Xdaamno »

Incognito wrote:
Post 157, Incognito wrote:Did we ever get a response to this:
Post 128, Patrick wrote:
Also, what's your take on GC?
Oh, I didn't see that.

He's town.
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Post Post #169 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 7:01 am

Post by OhGodMyLife »

charter wrote:*Goes off on a rant about hypocritical bandwagon votes* :roll:
You seem to be implying once again that I was only ever voting you for bandwagoning, which is still a strawman.
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Post Post #170 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 7:02 am

Post by Incognito »

If you think he's town and if you're town, why would you want people to choose sides on your back-and-forths?:
Post 132, Xdaamno wrote:Actually, you know, I would be fine if you just read a few of our back-and-forth points before you took sides, because I honestly believe I have defeated each and every argument he has presented.
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Post Post #171 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 7:04 am

Post by Incognito »

^^^ @Xdaamno, obv.
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Post Post #172 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 11:19 am

Post by skitzer »

Green Crayons in Post 60: But, merely the fact that you voted for camn states that you must have felt in some ways toward her lynch. I'm beginning to understand your playstyle, but it still tends to feel like the beginning of a tunnel-vision. And that isn't fence sitting. Sure, some of your reasoining was great, but there were parts were I felt you had taken it too far.

camn in Post 64: This is just asking for trouble. I'm leaning towards bad play on this one.

charter in Post 67: You didn't get the assumption that this game would be active? Did you look at the player list beforehand? It just seems to me like this would be excellent game. That's part of the reason why I joined it :oops:

camn in Post 68: Same questions/thoughts as above.

OGML in Post 75: I'm truly scared. I feel like I can manage though.

Incognito in Post 86: I almost feel that DizzyIzzy time is currently being taken up because he's still be hounded on for his vote on me. It almost seems like you are picking on him.

As of Post 92: The attacks on Izzy are not logically correct to me. He should be allowed to answer all questions before he starts.

camn in Post 109: You seem to refuse to believe that charter can be anything but scum. I feel like you are bringing too much of your past with him to this game and not enough of the current.

camn in Post 112: This may sound weird, but I want to ask for a reason for your unvote. "You rule" just doesn't cut it for me.

Patrick in Post 122: Could you give us a little reasoning? I don't have an opinion on the Xdaamno case, so even quoting something of his that pertains to your vote would help me understand.

camn in Post 156: Please explain. I need to see why someone is making a vote to have a valuable inference on it.

OGML in Post 159: Explain, explain, explain!

Xdaamno in Post 168: Why? For all I know now, you could just be saying that to kiss up.

So...

On the DizzyIzzy case: It doesn't make sense to me. People are attacking her for not scumhunting when she's been busy answering questions.

On the Xdaamno case: I haven't quite nailed down the logic for this one yet, but I feel like there could be substance behind it.

On the Patrick case: I don't know, because NO ONE EXPLAINS THEIR VOTES! (except someone did. I think it was GC.)
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Green Crayons
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Post Post #173 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 11:30 am

Post by Green Crayons »

I haven't voted Patrick. So, I haven't explained any vote towards him.
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
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Post Post #174 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 1:40 pm

Post by Patrick »

So I now have a small bandwagon made up of two unexplained votes and some crap from Xdaamno about not liking my metagaming of OGML? Explain these votes please.
Ether wrote:Patrick, what was weird about my agreement?
I said this already, it was very early in the game. Like, 35 hours in, and I'm pretty sure I've played games with you where I've started more slowly than that. What was unusual to you about this time?
skitzer wrote:Patrick in Post 122: Could you give us a little reasoning? I don't have an opinion on the Xdaamno case, so even quoting something of his that pertains to your vote would help me understand.
I have talked about this, even though I didn't provide any reasoning in that post. I think the reasons he gave for voting me where shoddy, which isn't necessarily scummy, but he's avoided any response to that despite being asked multiple times - why do that if he thinks the reasoning's good? He didn't try to get reactions from me after that, in fact he basically acted as though I was invisible. Now, the fact that he's kept his vote on me didn't and doesn't make alot of sense to me; I see my vote as an indicator of my thoughts and it seems counter-intuitive to leave it on someone in the way he did, but after looking at all his responses, I think he believes what he's saying. So
unvote
. I still want him to talk about some other players, or back up his vote on me with something that makes sense.

You said you're not sure about any of the three bandwagons, is there anyone you are suspicious of?

Did have some other stuff I wanted to comment on, but that'll have to wait till tomorrow.
Primpod 11:13 pm
chamber can you please come to ukmeet
i would love to finally touch your face

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