Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

Jahudo · Post Post #750 (ISO) » Thu Apr 02, 2009 8:55 am

Huntress is my top suspect right now and I'll go through all the days and compile a greatest hits of scumtells. Second might be Moriarty so I'll look into that too. The pro-town people in my eye are Spy, CF and BC.

CF Riot wrote:@Jah: How much do you think an extra JK affects the balance of a game if a doc and 1 JK are already present? Do you think the game could be balanced with 1 doc and 1 JK? Do you think it could be balanced with 1 doc and 2 JKs?

Quite a bit actually. Since there aren't any investigation roles the only worry is blocking another blocker/protector. But the more blocker/protectors out there the better chance of hitting the mafia that sends in the kill or the one being killed.

I don't know about balance since I'm not sure if a 3-man mafia is what we have. A 2-man mafia seems too low for a mini but maybe they have a RB. I don't see what a mafia doctor or watcher would do to help if there's no SK, but a RB could block the blocker blocking them?

SpyreX · Post Post #751 (ISO) » Thu Apr 02, 2009 9:28 am

Considering that everyone else claimed vanilla, I do believe BC - it would have been the ballsiest scum move to CC and just HOPE that there were no roles to screw that up.

Assume it is lylo from this point on.

I'm going to do a deeper review, but if I was throwing my vote down right now it would be Huntress. The play has been suspicious but culminated in the wanting a massclaim yesterday AND wanting to lynch versus the no lynch. The waiting around for what Rishi claimed business today also strikes an odd chord.

I'll try to get my tinfoil hat on and look at some other options, but as it sits Huntress is my call right now.

Vi · Post Post #752 (ISO) » Thu Apr 02, 2009 3:36 pm

Vote Count:

(unchanged)

*cricket* *cricket*

Minimum (L-4)

Not Voting:

First Deadline Review: Tuesday, April 13 2009
Current Deadline: Saturday, April 17 2009

Rishi · Post Post #753 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2009 5:07 am

CF Riot wrote: Rishi who's scum? Why?

Huntress. I think a lot of people already stated reasons - active lurking, agreeing with other people, being evasive during the claiming.

The other one is gut right now is Jahudo. I know this is probably the first time I've expressed suspicion of him, so it's pretty weak to not have a reason, but let me do a read over the next few days, and I'll give reasons.

Jahudo · Post Post #754 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2009 12:57 pm

My feelings on Huntress haven't changed since my post 584. I see Huntress responding to people but only to an extent that is required by the interactions of those other people. She's staying under the radar by not sparking the discussion on her own. It feels to me as though she's lurked through this entire game. The majority of her original words are one-two sentence remarks on quotes from other players. Sure she has questions, explanations, agreements, or disagreements but she is not dictating the discussion to the scumhunting that she is doing on her own.

I thought it might be a universal playstyle for her but she didn't always play this indirectly in Newbie 606 (as town), Mafia 87 (as town) or Mini 696 (recruited into scum but still looked pro-active before that).

Jahudo wrote:
Huntress wrote:Briefly I'm not seeing the case on Pops and am a bit suspicious of the bandwagon on him. I would be happy to switch my vote to Rishi or Trumpet of Doom but probably not anyone else at the moment.
Why exactly? You thought pops was scummy day 1 but you never told us why because he wasn’t in your top two. Now you don’t find him scummy and we never knew how confident you were day 1. You never committed and now you’re safely backing off.

You really ignored OGML day 1. Why would you vote for ToD now when he hasn’t said anything content-wise? You had Rishi as listed lower on your scumlist than pops day 1. Why has he jumped up so high now?

Huntress you missed this from a few days ago.

It's the biggest feeling I've been picking up lately so,

Vote: Huntress

bionicchop2 · Post Post #755 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2009 1:21 pm

RE: why I jailed OGML on N1, I felt he was most likely to be scum, so I jailed him. I didn't want to jail somebody I thought was town in case they had a PR.

Vi · Post Post #756 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2009 1:58 pm

Vote Count:

Huntress (L-3) ~ Jahudo

Minimum (L-4)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2, Huntress,

Jahudo,

First Deadline Review: Tuesday, April 13 2009
Current Deadline: Saturday, April 17 2009

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V/LA for the weekend, hence the early vote count.
I will --try-- to do vote counts and stuff if I can, but no guarantees.

CF Riot · Post Post #757 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2009 8:31 pm

Ok, here's the things that are bothering me.

BC: Why didn't you jail Rhinox N1? He was considered scummy by roughly half the town, and at one point during the day you voted him yourself. On top of this, he claimed vanilla, which made him prime meat for a jailer.

Secondly, why did you have 95 posts D1 and

15

on D2?
----
Moriarty: Post 661, followed by yours truly, then 668. Look at the order of events in context. All same page, what exactly caused the vote switch?

I want

MOAR POSTING

from this player.
----
Right now I'm feeling really sketchy about Rishi. I think the points IAUN made at the end of D2 are good. (He's dead now btw.) Moriarty's waffling between Rishi and Pops says scum team to me. (Originally I thought Pops + Mor, now I'm thinking Rishi + Mor.) Rishi's D2 was basically only saying he was suspicious of Huntress and OGML, but without ever telling why or asking any questions. Today there are reasons, but it looks more like, "there's enough here to justify my vote," rather than "these things make me think Huntress is scum." The Jah thing throws me a bit, but I don't know if that's a positive or a negative. I'll wait for the reasons.
----
I'm not hot on a Huntress lynch right now. Partially because Rishi is supporting it, and partially because I don't think what's been held up against her is that scummy. I actually feel like Huntress was adding a decent amount to the discussion D1. D2 was not so good. There was a lot of "I have suspicions but I can't talk about them right now," and when the day ended we still hadn't heard about them. I really don't get the SpyreX hate, but at the same time what does Huntress-scum gain from pushing that vote?

I would like to see some real cases from Huntress today though.

SpyreX · Post Post #758 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2009 8:52 pm

I'll give a more substantial post in the next day or two but in direct response to CFR:

The big issue with her "SpyreX hate" is that it hasn't materialized into anything... its just there. And, really, its all she's done. Not a case, not anything refutable.. just "welp, SpyreX is scum" over and over - and its being a smokescreen for everything else going on.

So that bothers me from her play. Logistically, the play yesterday in regards to the lynch REALLY bother me as well.

I am..hesitant because there hasn't been any real anti-wagon except from you (and yours isn't even strong). I'd have expected far more push and pull with this being lylo.

bionicchop2 · Post Post #759 (ISO) » Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:07 am

CF Riot wrote: BC: Why didn't you jail Rhinox N1? He was considered scummy by roughly half the town, and at one point during the day you voted him yourself. On top of this, he claimed vanilla, which made him prime meat for a jailer.

He wasn't even in my top 3 by the end of the day. That was fairly clear to anybody reading.

CF Riot wrote: Secondly, why did you have 95 posts D1 and
15
on D2?

I guess you didn't read day 2. I could simply re-answer the question, but I am stubborn.

Huntress · Post Post #760 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 1:59 am

I'm sorry I haven't been able to spend much time on this over the last few days but I will catch up this afternoon (if my family stop distracting me!).

Vi · Post Post #761 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 8:45 am

Vote Count:

Huntress (L-3) ~ Jahudo

Minimum (L-4)

Not Voting:

First Deadline Review: Tuesday, April 13 2009
Current Deadline: Saturday, April 17 2009

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'Glad to see I didn't miss much. In a sense.
Prods go out tonight.

Jahudo · Post Post #762 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 8:57 am

SpyreX wrote:I am..hesitant because there hasn't been any real anti-wagon except from you (and yours isn't even strong). I'd have expected far more push and pull with this being lylo.

Maybe Moriarty, ze hasn't said anything either way today. This was the last opinion from Mort to Hunt:

Mortiarty wrote:The thing that's still bothering me about Huntress is poor cases *plus* not being around anywhere, but then she comes out of nowhere and presents a crap case on SpyreX of all people. This is kind of strange for someone who I've assumed to be scum, for reasons of it makes no sense for scum at all.

Looks like indecisiveness coming after a period of possibly being more certain about Huntress when the signs didn't seem to change things about her.

CF Riot · Post Post #763 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 2:55 pm

bionicchop2 wrote:He wasn't even in my top 3 by the end of the day. That was fairly clear to anybody reading.

Yeah but the thing is, according to your claim

you're not a roleblocker

. You're a jailer. Jailers can benefit from targeting scum

or

town, and they hurt the town by targeting PRs. Rhinox claimed vanilla, so it seems like he'd be an obvious choice for a N1 block, even if you thought there were scummier people at the time.

I also don't see how getting bored or lazy or w/e accounts for your posting dropping

that

significantly. If you posted about half as much D2 I could see that, but you had 80 less posts and none of them had the same amount of content as your average post D1.

Who do you think is scum right now?
----
Jah I don't really understand your last post.

Jahudo · Post Post #764 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 3:15 pm

It is strange for me to see Moriarty first "assume Huntress to be scum" then after Huntress made a "crap case on Spyrex", Moriarty seems less certain that Huntress is scum. I don't know how he/she came to that opinion.

Vi · Post Post #765 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 4:33 pm

Vote Count:

(unchanged)

Huntress (L-3) ~ Jahudo

Minimum (L-4)

Not Voting:

First Deadline Review: Tuesday, April 13 2009
Current Deadline: Saturday, April 17 2009

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Moriarty147 has been prodded for the first time today.

SpyreX · Post Post #766 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 8:40 am

I'm starting to see a Mor / Huntress connection with that business.

CFR:

I've been having the same issues with bio, but ultimately: do you think he CC'd Day 1 with the myriad of potential roles available to bust him to nail a JK?

If it was scum, it was balls-to-the-wall. I'm not seeing it.

CF Riot · Post Post #767 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 11:43 am

Eh, I don't think it'd be that hard really. BC still isn't even close to my top suspect, but I'm thinking if it's lylo we might as well discuss everything there is left to discuss. The only role I can see breaking a JK claim is watcher, and even that'd have a rough time. If BC is a scum-RB then he has a way to fool a watcher who sees him targeting some given person, and also ensures that if the person was a PR, they can't break his claim because they will really have been blocked. And if it's a 3 man scum team like I think it is, they could have guessed that there wouldn't be a SK in the game so there wouldn't be a risk of the person he targeted dying (which would bust a JK claim). The only other way he gets caught is if a massclaim reveals way more power than the town should have, but in that case we'd still have to sort through which PRs seem town and which seem scum, and BC's early CC would give him townpoints, just like it is now.

I don't think BC's claim is like OMG SCUMCLAIM and there's still a good chance he's town. There's also lots of better lynches today, like Rishi. But I think this is all worth talking about, and I'm concerned with BC's lack of posting even if he is town because he had a great D1 and now I'm not seeing that same sort of effort. I would feel a lot better if we had about 4 people today who shot beams of pro-townness out of all there posts, but I'm not seeing it.

Jahudo · Post Post #768 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 12:45 pm

CF, did I clarify my last post?

What are people's main points against Rishi? (for those who have main points against him but especially Huntress who is long overdue for an answer)

I don't really see Rishi becoming any more suspicious because we know pops is town and he had that case against Rishi, but that case is probably worth going over again.

bionicchop2 · Post Post #769 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 12:46 pm

CF Riot wrote:If BC is a scum-RB then he has a way to fool a watcher who sees him targeting some given person, and also ensures that if the person was a PR, they can't break his claim because they will really have been blocked.

If I target somebody, and that same person is watched, the watcher gets no result. If I was RB, I would be seen visiting the person.

CF Riot wrote: I also don't see how getting bored or lazy or w/e accounts for your posting dropping that significantly.

Really? You don't think the lack of desire to play mafia anymore would result in a significant drop-off in posts?

Re: jailing - OGML, that was my choice and I explained why. Debating if somebody may have been a better choice in your opinion is a rather fruitless exercise. I jailed you the next night and nobody last night if you want to chew on those also.

Re: suspects - Mostly the quieter ones right now (pot/kettle, right?). Something still nagging me about Jahudo. I would probably go with Huntress for many promises and no follow up or Moriarty if held at gunpoint.

Jahudo · Post Post #770 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 12:51 pm

Moriarty could use a prod actually.

Mod: Can you prod Moriarty please?

I did that yesterday. ~Vi

Moriarty147 · Post Post #771 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 1:19 pm

Around, just barely.

Jahudo wrote: It is strange for me to see Moriarty first "assume Huntress to be scum" then after Huntress made a "crap case on Spyrex", Moriarty seems less certain that Huntress is scum. I don't know how he/she came to that opinion.

Hypothetically, if she were scum, why make a very weak and pretty bad case on someone who nobody else thinks is scum, rather than joining the main wagon or creating a case on someone else likely to be lynched?

The issue is it made her stick out while not at all furthering her goals, if she were scum and SpyreX were a townie, which is why I treated that as a very minor tell towards her being townie at the time.

Huntress wagon is slightly strange due to the general lack of opposition, as has been noted by SpyreX.

BC wrote: If I target somebody, and that same person is watched, the watcher gets no result. If I was RB, I would be seen visiting the person.

Hrm. Well, this is strange. Technically speaking most watchers will also see doc protects as well as RB attempts, so I'm not sure why they wouldn't see a jailer jailing someone.

It would have been really nice to know who IAUN protected...

Getting an uneasy feeling from Jahudo lately. Can't quantify it just yet, though. If I had to pick someone at gunpoint though, it would be him.

@mod: I will be V/LA for the next 2 weeks (approx.) due to exams. If this is going to be a major issue please replace me.

bionicchop2 · Post Post #772 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 2:01 pm

Moriarty147 wrote:
BC wrote: If I target somebody, and that same person is watched, the watcher gets no result. If I was RB, I would be seen visiting the person.
Hrm. Well, this is strange. Technically speaking most watchers will also see doc protects as well as RB attempts, so I'm not sure why they wouldn't see a jailer jailing someone.

Mostly because jailer =/= doctor.

Vi wrote:
You are Officer ________, one of the night watchmen at Lunais River Prison. You don't know anything really specific about the other officers, but you have the master key to the spare prison cells and a good idea. At Night, you may PM the mod with the name of a player you would like to imprison for the night.
This effectively "removes" them from the game for that Night - they will not be able to be targeted by anyone else (even by Night Kills), but they will also be roleblocked.
You may not imprison yourself, and you may not imprison the same person on consecutive nights.

--You are a
Townie Jailer
. Confirm in-thread.--

The player basically does not exist, so the watcher gets no result. On Epic, you basically get no report same as if you were role blocked.

CF Riot · Post Post #773 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 3:55 pm

@Jah, yes much better thanks. I meant to reply to that in my last post but I had work at 6 so I was posting as I was leaving. I can see your point, but I'm basically in the same boat. Moriarty's latest post pretty much explains exactly how I feel about Huntress and the wagon. I don't consider a crap case on a townish player a towntell really, but as Mor said, it doesn't really make sense as a scum move either.
----
@Mor, can you clear up the confusion over your gender since Jah and I keep tripping over which pronouns to use? =P More importantly, can you explain your vote switch from Rishi to Pops yesterday? Can you explain why you would rather lynch Jahudo than Rishi today?
----
@BC, yes thank you, I will. Does that mean you thought I was the most likely scum N2? What about Jahudo? What about Moriarty or Rishi, both of whom we knew didn't make an action N1 and therefore were also good JK targets?

The Jailer info from the role PM does lend you some credit though. I hadn't paid that much attention to the role, but I see now a fake Jailer claim is significantly more difficult than I had originally thought.
----
Rishi case is this. I think point 2 isn't very strong, and I don't agree with point 4 at all, because I've done that a lot as town and never thought twice about it. BUT I totally agree with the rest of the case, and I think the bolded plus this line

Secondly, the end of this one is horrible. Here's the first time he's listed any suspects besides RedCoyote, and he does so without any real case, and says he's "waiting for them to post".

are pretty strong tells. To that list, you can add this post, which looks like a big fat wagon hop, Moriarty's waffling at the end of D2, and this post, which isn't really saying "I think Huntress is scummy," but is saying, "I think enough people think Huntress is scummy for me to lynch her." I've also noted that Rishi and Moriarty are both calling Jah scum now out of absolutely nowhere. This is all from memory. I'm going to try to do a reread of Rishi if I get time this week and see if anything else sticks out.

Vi · Post Post #774 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 4:18 pm

Vote Count:

(unchanged)

Huntress (L-3) ~ Jahudo

Minimum (L-4)

Not Voting:

First Deadline Review: Tuesday, April 13 2009
Current Deadline: Saturday, April 17 2009

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Rishi is being prodded for the first time today.