Mafia 88- Return to New Catania- Game Over!

[Adel]

Still, I think the lynch today is either Iamusername or Tubby; I have trouble coming up with a probable scum group that dosn't inclue one of them.

I'm having trouble imagining a scum group that doesn't include Der Hammer.

[The Fonz]

Der Hammer is definitely being replaced, and is not welcome back in this thread.

[tubby216]

ok then


adel the longer this plays out the more i am thinking you scum,

right now from your meta on 703 you are playing exactly like you did there, wich there is nothing wrong with that i suspose unless you are doing in order to get me to believe you town and never think of you as scum. Most people would change up their game just a little bit. and for you to to write me off without so much as a vote or a mention of possibility of me being scumm has me worried. normally you would have pressured the crap out of me or something to either confim me or out me.

does anyone else see this or am i being paranoid??

[Yosarian2]

Tubby: Could you explain a little more what you mean about the Adel metagame thing? I'm a bit confused by what you mean there.

[tubby216]

Tubby: Could you explain a little more what you mean about the Adel metagame thing? I'm a bit confused by what you mean there.

well i guess its all WIFOM but here it is,

Adel is using what i know to be a town meta play. IE adel is playing the exact way that she did in mini 703 thereby making me think at first look Adel=town. adel scum would do this to get me on her side knowing i would follow her into end game.


If i were adel scum i would use this to either

1) aide her in convincing tubby that her and her partner are town and there y lynching remaining town.

2) help her bus her remaining partner then taking me to 3 player endgame where i would follow her agian and she still wins


does that make sense?

[Yosarian2]

Interesting thoughts, tubby.

The idea that Adel would warp her entire playstyle to match her playstyle in one game she was town with you, just to get you on her side, sounds a little extreme to me, even for Adel.

That being said, in a more general sense, I could see a scum-Adel hoping you would follow her today, if you are town.

From my point of view, scum-Adel and town-Tubby would almost certanly mean her scumbuddy is Iamusername; I still don't think Adel could be scum with der hammer. Iamusername is also the most likely scumbuddy to you if you're scum, in my mind, and he's basically the only one who could work as a scumbuddy to Der Hammer either.

Basically, if you are town, tubby, I think Iamusername would have to be scum; and it strikes me as odd you haven't really commented on him yet, even after I said I'd probably want to lynch either you or him today since I think at least one of the two of you pretty much has to be scum. What do you think about Iamusername?

[tubby216]

honestly i have no idea i'll have to read on him awhile...

let me do that and i will get back to you

[Adel]

tubby -- if you are town and I were scum I would lynch you at lylo. I would engineer a "choose one: tubby or Adel" choice for the other players, and I would beat you by being more active and more experienced at lylo.


~~~~~~~

@Der Hammer's Replacement:

First, thanks for replacing in.

We are currently stalled out and waiting for a massclaim.

We will claim in popcorn order, with each person to claim naming the next person to claim.

We need you to claim as soon as possible

.

Thanks, and welcome again to the game.

[tubby216]

ok so who is claiming first?? the der hammer replacement? if and when we get one??

[The Fonz]

Seraphim II replaces Der Hammer.

[tubby216]

holy crap good luck seraphimII

[Seraphim]

Hi.

I'm aware of the general situation as I follow the games I die in. I'm going to check back and see other claims.

I'm still a miller, unfortunately. That's my(Der Hammer's) claim on D1 and it still is now. I'm going to reread back a few days and stuff and collect myself so I can offer a good case and get a good read for the remaining players. Gut says iamusername, but gut has been wrong often.

Nice to be back.

[Adel]

do you want to name who claims next now, or later?

[Seraphim]

Who has claimed thus far?

[Adel]

Who has claimed thus far?

since this post:

iamausername made zero other posts elsewhere on this site.
tubby made two posts elsewhere on the site.
yos2 made five posts elsewhere on the site.

~~~

there are no other claims that I am aware of.

@tubby and yos2: why did you choose to not answer Seraphim's question?

[iamausername]

Iamusername's der hammer vote yesterday seemed was pretty key, but it could have been bussing.

Which one of me, tubby and Adel was actually voting Der Hammer at the end of D5 (and also D1, for that matter)?

Whose vote do you write off as "could be bussing"?

How does that make sense?

Still, I think the lynch today is either Iamusername or Tubby; I have trouble coming up with a probable scum group that dosn't inclue one of them.

I'm having trouble imagining a scum group that doesn't include Der Hammer.

Well, if we're all doing this, I'm having trouble seeing one that doesn't include Yosarian.

tubby -- if you are town and I were scum I would lynch you at lylo. I would engineer a "choose one: tubby or Adel" choice for the other players, and I would beat you by being more active and more experienced at lylo.

How would you go about engineering that choice, exactly?

[Yosarian2]

Iamusername's der hammer vote yesterday seemed was pretty key, but it could have been bussing.

Which one of me, tubby and Adel was actually voting Der Hammer at the end of D5 (and also D1, for that matter)?

Whose vote do you write off as "could be bussing"?

How does that make sense?

You attacked and voted Der Hammer once, in a situation where it looked like he was probably going to be lynched no matter what you did.

Adel attacked Der Hammer almost constnatly, and at one point almost turned a Carn Carn lynch into a Der Hammer lynch pretty much on her own. That's why I think your vote could be a bussing vote, and I think it's less likely her behavior was.

Still, I think the lynch today is either Iamusername or Tubby; I have trouble coming up with a probable scum group that dosn't inclue one of them.

I'm having trouble imagining a scum group that doesn't include Der Hammer.

Well, if we're all doing this, I'm having trouble seeing one that doesn't include Yosarian.

:eyebrow: Oh? Preytell?

[iamausername]

a situation where it looked like he was probably going to be lynched no matter what you did.

I think the fact that he, you know,

didn't get lynched

proves that there was no such situation.

Adel attacked Der Hammer almost constnatly, and at one point almost turned a Carn Carn lynch into a Der Hammer lynch pretty much on her own. That's why I think your vote could be a bussing vote, and I think it's less likely her behavior was.

What about tubby?

Well, if we're all doing this, I'm having trouble seeing one that doesn't include Yosarian.

:eyebrow: Oh? Preytell?

I agree that Adel is probably not scum with DH/Seraphim. I think tubby is town. That leaves two possible pairs, and both include you.

[Adel]

How would you go about engineering that choice, exactly?

PBPA, active posting, continuous attacks. All part of building a plausible sounding case, sticking with it, and picking apart each of his responses with cold and crystalline logick.

~~~

Speaking of plausible cases, what were OGML's vig choices each night?

Would he have targeted Der Hammer N1? Could he have targeted Der Hammer on any of the following nights?

[Yosarian2]

a situation where it looked like he was probably going to be lynched no matter what you did.

I think the fact that he, you know,

didn't get lynched

proves that there was no such situation.

(shrug) That's the point where a person is most likely to bus his partner, though, is when it looks like that partner is *likely* to be lynched; and that is when you voted Der Hammer.

Adel attacked Der Hammer almost constnatly, and at one point almost turned a Carn Carn lynch into a Der Hammer lynch pretty much on her own. That's why I think your vote could be a bussing vote, and I think it's less likely her behavior was.

What about tubby?

Eh...tubby's harder to read, but the tone in his posts when he was trying to get me to switch from the carn carn wagon to th der hammer wagon don't really strike me that way.

Well, if we're all doing this, I'm having trouble seeing one that doesn't include Yosarian.

:eyebrow: Oh? Preytell?

I agree that Adel is probably not scum with DH/Seraphim. I think tubby is town. That leaves two possible pairs, and both include you.

(shrug) From where I'm sitting, if tubby is town, you pretty much have to be scum. The only plausable scum-pair that dosn't include you is Tubby-Adel; I guess tubby-der hammer isn't imposible, but I don't really think that's it. And even there, even if Tubby is scum, I think Tubby-Iamusername is a more likely pairing then Tubby-Adel.

I'm actually pretty close to voting Iamusername right now, because the odds of him being town are small; I'm mostly just waiting for the massclaim at this point.

[Adel]

Vote: Militant

Claus kill isn't unexpected, though I was hoping for some doc saving action.

Shanba kill is a surprise though.

Two scumgroups it is. I stand corrected.

I've got out next scum though.

Vote: iamausername

I've been vascillating on xyl being scum for the last two days, but I'm pretty sure now that he and username make way too much sense as a scumpair. Just look at sobeahero (who iaun replaced) defending the everliving fuck out of george carlin (who xyl replaced), and littering his posts with false dilemmas so bad that even username had to call them out when he replaced.

*sings* I'm paranoid I'm paranoid and everybody's coming to get me

Anyway, agree that DH is still town despite skitzer being a miller (two cops after all)

Like I said, vascillating on xyl. He's a slippery mofo and I'm still having trouble pinning him down. But I think username is scummy in addition to the xyl connection.

So it turns out I mixed up which of xyl and iaun was doing the defending and between all those replacements, and its not the lock I thought it was. However, I still find username scummy on his own.

On a seperate note, I think that its likely we're dealing with three more scum - two florida and one cartel. This means there is the potential for florida mafia to win after today if there is both a non-florida lynch and three non-florida deaths in the night. Which means its probably time for a massclaim.

I have another theory as to how xyl's role could have worked. If the setup is two mafia groups of three, then the mafia traitor could have been a role which was recruitable by either mafia group (which would mean xyl had no knowledge about who was in any scum group).

This seems like a pretty elegant role mechanic, and also means that if I'm right we know xyl was not killed by either the florida or cartel group, because that would have resulted in recruitment rather than death.

purple scum - carncarn

red scum - ecto/howardroark and either iamausername (more likely) or yosarian2 (less likely)

town - everybody else

Unvote, Vote: CarnCarn

~~~

I propose that OGML killed:
N1: Sir T
N2: Militant
N3: Hoopla
N4: Xylthixlm
N5: HowardRoark

and never targeted Der Hammer.

~~~

@Seraphim: which possibility do you think is more likely?
1. OGML was killed to setup iamausername
2. OGML was killed by a scumgrup that includes iamausername

How obvious do you think it was that OGML was an obvious vig?

On which day do you think the scum should've figured out that he was scum?

[Adel]

EBOWP:
On which day do you think the scum should've figured out that he was

scum

a vig?

[tubby216]

i thought ogml was scum


and what am i susposed to answer to agian??

[Adel]

please read this page and try again: there are several questions you could answer.

[The Fonz]

Shouldn't be necessary, but a note that the deadline is 20 days from now, April 24th, 2009.