War in Heaven II - Spirit of Vengeance (Over!)

[populartajo]

Actually, Im thinking that 2-2 Seraphim is more possible than I thought.
Lets look at some numbers.
Scum could have, assuming max number 5:
2 Seraphs (scum with so-so PR)
2 Arels (scum with weak PR)
1 Cherub (goon)

You missed the Ophen.

Anyways, this is why Walt's apparent trust of Nuwen/roflcopter didn't fit with his Seraph claim. Having four claimed Seraphs makes it much more likely that two of them are scum.

Im pondering how likely would there be an scum Ophan?
I dont think he trusting Nuwen/rolf is a negative point of his claim considering 3-1 Seraph is also likely.

[Xylthixlm]

Im pondering how likely would there be an scum Ophan?

Pretty likely, even if it's not too useful.

I dont think he trusting Nuwen/rolf is a negative point of his claim considering 3-1 Seraph is also likely.

Here's my guess for what WaltWishbone was thinking would happen...

WaltWishbone: "We should trust roflcopter and Nuwen, they're confirmed because they claimed Seraph!"
Everyone: "Yes! roflcopter and Nuwen are confirmed town!"
WaltWishbone: "I am a Seraph too!"
Everyone: "Yes! WaltWishbone is confirmed town!"
WaltWishbone: "Yes! I am confirmed town! Everyone hurt Xyl for attacking a confirmed town!"
Everyone: "Hurt: Xyl!"

[roflcopter]

itt kinetic implodes

[populartajo]

Im pondering how likely would there be an scum Ophan?

Pretty likely, even if it's not too useful.

I dont think he trusting Nuwen/rolf is a negative point of his claim considering 3-1 Seraph is also likely.

Here's my guess for what WaltWishbone was thinking would happen...

WaltWishbone: "We should trust roflcopter and Nuwen, they're confirmed because they claimed Seraph!"
Everyone: "Yes! roflcopter and Nuwen are confirmed town!"
WaltWishbone: "I am a Seraph too!"
Everyone: "Yes! WaltWishbone is confirmed town!"
WaltWishbone: "Yes! I am confirmed town! Everyone hurt Xyl for attacking a confirmed town!"
Everyone: "Hurt: Xyl!"

There wasnt a scum Ophan in the other game.
About Walt, I think its extremely possible he could OMGUS you and all his attackers as town since eveyrbody was attacking him for the weakest reasons ever.
You still think Walt is scum?

[roflcopter]

walt is pretty obviously town

most likely seraphim scenario is 3-1, if it were 2-2 i can't see nuwen claiming when shinnen-scum was the one who was clearly about to get lynched, as two seraphim in the scumgroup would almost certainly lead scum to conclude that there are at least two seraphim outside the scumgroup.

[roflcopter]

for posterity, lets list some appeals that kinetic has been making recently

appeal to emotion
appeal to fear
appeal to authority

there's probably more fallacies going on, but those are the ones that really pop out

[Xylthixlm]

You still think Walt is scum?

I don't think he's scum. Thinking like scum, possibly.

[Xylthixlm]

most likely seraphim scenario is 3-1, if it were 2-2 i can't see nuwen claiming when shinnen-scum was the one who was clearly about to get lynched, as two seraphim in the scumgroup would almost certainly lead scum to conclude that there are at least two seraphim outside the scumgroup.

I don't follow.

[roflcopter]

most likely seraphim scenario is 3-1, if it were 2-2 i can't see nuwen claiming when shinnen-scum was the one who was clearly about to get lynched, as two seraphim in the scumgroup would almost certainly lead scum to conclude that there are at least two seraphim outside the scumgroup.

I don't follow.

i was the first seraph claim

shortly thereafter, shinnen claims seraph

we now know shinnen is scum. suppose there are two scum seraphs, one of whom is still unclaimed at the point when shinnen and i had claimed, for the sake of argument. the scum know they have two seraphs. the logical conclusion for the scum to make based on this is that there must be at least two town seraphs. so it would not be a good place for a second scum seraph to claim, because it won't make them seem confirmed, as there will be another seraph out there somewhere to claim as well.

this is why i think the timing of nuwen's claim argues strongly for nuwen town.

[populartajo]

most likely seraphim scenario is 3-1, if it were 2-2 i can't see nuwen claiming when shinnen-scum was the one who was clearly about to get lynched, as two seraphim in the scumgroup would almost certainly lead scum to conclude that there are at least two seraphim outside the scumgroup.

I don't follow.

i was the first seraph claim

shortly thereafter, shinnen claims seraph

we now know shinnen is scum. suppose there are two scum seraphs, one of whom is still unclaimed at the point when shinnen and i had claimed, for the sake of argument. the scum know they have two seraphs. the logical conclusion for the scum to make based on this is that there must be at least two town seraphs. so it would not be a good place for a second scum seraph to claim, because it won't make them seem confirmed, as there will be another seraph out there somewhere to claim as well.

this is why i think the timing of nuwen's claim argues strongly for nuwen town.

Well, nobody thinks that Nuwen is scum. I think that if a Seraphim has to be scum, it would be you.
3:1 against 2:2. The mini had 1-1 Seraphim distribution, just like in the Marathon game. But, 2 Seraphims maybe its too much, considering Flay thought he had to make scum less powered.
Blerg, I really dont know.

[Nuwen]

for posterity, lets list some appeals that kinetic has been making recently

appeal to emotion
appeal to fear
appeal to authority

there's probably more fallacies going on, but those are the ones that really pop out

Speaking of fallacies, I really dislike your earlier misplaced burden of proof:

Intent to Heal: Kinetic

Do it please.

I will unless roflcopter actually lays out a convincing case in the next 3 hours.

i'd prefer you lay out a convincing case for why kinetic is town, because you're suddenly switching your modus operandi in this game and its really weird.

With this statement, you're attempting to hit two independent birds: Xyl's tactical shift from mathematically lynching to informed lynching, and Kinetic.

Hurt: Walt

-

Flavor containing the word BLADE, for God made Latin and saw it was not good.

I realize the most support for Walt's death has crumbled, but I still think his flip as a Seraph will help determine Rofl's alignment. If he turns up scum, I'll feel slightly more at ease with Rofl's erratic play. If he's town, as most people seem to now suspect, my next hurts are hitting Juls, then Rofl.

[Nuwen]

EDWOP: *that most support for Walt's death has crumbled.

[roflcopter]

see, suddenly all my faith in nuwen has evaporated, because she's now setting up lynches based on killing someone and them flipping town

[roflcopter]

and also walt was really freakin' obvious town, so i don't know what you think you're doing here

[populartajo]

for posterity, lets list some appeals that kinetic has been making recently

appeal to emotion
appeal to fear
appeal to authority

there's probably more fallacies going on, but those are the ones that really pop out

Speaking of fallacies, I really dislike your earlier misplaced burden of proof:

Intent to Heal: Kinetic

Do it please.

I will unless roflcopter actually lays out a convincing case in the next 3 hours.

i'd prefer you lay out a convincing case for why kinetic is town, because you're suddenly switching your modus operandi in this game and its really weird.

With this statement, you're attempting to hit two independent birds: Xyl's tactical shift from mathematically lynching to informed lynching, and Kinetic.

Hurt: Walt

-

Flavor containing the word BLADE, for God made Latin and saw it was not good.

I realize the most support for Walt's death has crumbled, but I still think his flip as a Seraph will help determine Rofl's alignment. If he turns up scum, I'll feel slightly more at ease with Rofl's erratic play. If he's town, as most people seem to now suspect, my next hurts are hitting Juls, then Rofl.

Did you just kill Wishbone?
/facepalm.

[Nuwen]

see, suddenly all my faith in nuwen has evaporated, because she's now setting up lynches based on killing someone and them flipping town

I said the same thing earlier.

I'm just throwing this out there: I don't have anything concrete yet but I wonder if there's anyone willing to back me up on an ABR hurt.

Juls first, then either ABR or Rolf (depending on how Walt flips,

if

he flips). A town Walt makes Rofl more likely to be scum; I think a 2:2 Seraphim setup is safer to assume than a 3:1.

[roflcopter]

serious qft on the /facepalm

[populartajo]

see, suddenly all my faith in nuwen has evaporated, because she's now setting up lynches based on killing someone and them flipping town

I said the same thing earlier.

I'm just throwing this out there: I don't have anything concrete yet but I wonder if there's anyone willing to back me up on an ABR hurt.

Juls first, then either ABR or Rolf (depending on how Walt flips,

if

he flips). A town Walt makes Rofl more likely to be scum; I think a 2:2 Seraphim setup is safer to assume than a 3:1.

Yes, yes but Walt WAS SO FUCKING OBVIOUS TOWN.

[roflcopter]

i missed that detail while i was deciding how likely a 3:1 vs 2:2 was, if i had seen you setting up my lynch ahead of time earlier i would have been a lot more uneasy

[Nuwen]

Did you just kill Wishbone?
/facepalm.

Absolutely. Given the choice between a probability game and using psychological reads, the former is much more appealing.

No, Walt was not obvtown. His claim came conveniently after a long series of "OMG SERAPH = TOWN" posts, he has completely tunneled Xyl and every piece of his contribution to his game has been in response to pressure in his direction -

zero

active scumhunting.

[Nuwen]

i missed that detail while i was deciding how likely a 3:1 vs 2:2 was, if i had seen you setting up my lynch ahead of time earlier i would have been a lot more uneasy

Pro-tip: Good town play involves reading.

[Nuwen]

EDBWOP: * piece of contribution to this town.

Fuckin' laptop keyboard.

[populartajo]

Did you just kill Wishbone?
/facepalm.

Absolutely. Given the choice between a probability game and using psychological reads, the former is much more appealing.

No, Walt was not obvtown. His claim came conveniently after a long series of "OMG SERAPH = TOWN" posts, he has completely tunneled Xyl and every piece of his contribution to his game has been in response to pressure in his direction -

zero

active scumhunting.

Dont you know to analyse people's reactions when they think they are dead?

[DrippingGoofball]

for posterity, lets list some appeals that kinetic has been making recently

appeal to emotion
appeal to fear
appeal to authority

there's probably more fallacies going on, but those are the ones that really pop out

Wikitells.

ABR is more guilty of all the above anyway.

[Xylthixlm]

If walt flips scum, zwetschenwasser needs to die. There would be no way he could "accidentally" hurt early and then have walt put on such a convincing "post-hammer" townie show unless it was planned by daytalk.

I think walt is going to flip town, but if he doesn't, I know my target.