Mini #764: Notre Dame Mafia, Game Over

[Kast]

@Kinetic-
If I hit on your *ways to catch scum* then sorry, but those aren't surefire. If you thought they were, you should reassess.

If I missed something, then I hardly think it is appropriate to resort to personal insults over it.

Excuse me if I'm not all gung-ho about executing a plan just because two players say "THIS WILL DEFINITELY CATCH SCUM, BUT I WON'T TELL YOU UNTIL YOU AGREE TO IT".

[Kast]

@Kinetic-
I expect an explanation from you later when you have more time.

[Kinetic]

Nothing is 100%. You spelling shit out doesn't help. Scum cannot communicate right now and thus cannot coordinate. Stop helping scum.

[charter]

You sir are an idiot.

Yeah, I'm not so gung ho about a massclaim anymore.

HOLY CRAP. KAST used gung ho too. This is an unprecidented amount of gung ho in a mafia game.

[charter]

Oh my god, I just read Kast's post instead of skimming it. I believe a massclaim now has about a zero percent chance of finding scum.

I am willing to lynch kast in the next seven posts, this is too atrocious to go unpunished.

[Kast]

@Charter/Kinetic-
So...you were assuming that scum are STUPID and could not think about LYING about their cards without being able to communicate with each other?

Also, please explain what part of my sharing my thoughts makes it so that we cannot catch scum who we would have caught if I had not posted.

You proposed a plan which you claim is guaranteed to catch scum, but fail to explain how it would do so, and when someone actually thinks about it and questions whether it is really guaranteed to catch scum, you want to lynch the person for derailing your plan?

To be fair, Kinetic has not called for my lynch, just insulted me.

@Kinetic-
Your math about scum knowing 50% is incomplete. Feel free to call me an idiot for sharing this. I tend to believe that townies should explain themselves and their statements instead of leaving things vague. I'm not in favor of allowing players to get away with making unjustified claims.

Each of three scum only have to be separated by 2 players (not 3 players) in order to maximize card exposure.

Each scum player has knowledge of the 3 cards they receive. They have knowledge of the 1 card that they pass in the third pick. They have knowledge of the 2 cards they pass, but not specific knowledge of which player following them receives which of those cards. You could get away with calling that knowledge of 6 cards each for a total of knowledge of 18 cards.

From the 2 cards they are passed and the 1 card they are given, they also have partial knowledge of cards that the players before them in drafting order do not have and/or will not receive in future drafts.

[Kast]

@Kinetic-
Please provide an explanation for how any of what I posted helps scum avoid being caught by a mass claim.

@Charter-
Same for you.

You claim that my post makes it so that a mass claim is no longer good. Please explain how it does so.

[charter]

My whole theory relied on scum not preparing for a massclaim on day one (even if they did, it would be possible if they were dumb with their preparations). This is a reasonable assumption because games rarely have massclaims day one (and I often get lynched for suggesting the idea). I was assuming scum had not planned for a day one massclaim, and thus would panic and just tell the truth, not thinking it through thoroughly.

Assuming this, I had said something about we massclaim, and town would know when scum lied. Scum can only lie about their first card and expect to get away with it anyway. However, I said town would know when they lied to try and keep them honest, I don't think it possible to know if they lied about their first card.

ANYONE who claimed to take the 1/4 vig first round is 100% guarenteed scum. This is entirely worthless to town, and any other power is far outweighs 'not letting scum have 1/4 vig'. I would find anyone who took the plague card first round to be extremely suspect as well. Anyone who took it over the 1/2 cop card I'd call guarenteed scum for sure.

You sharing you thoughts basically spelled all this out for scum, so NO ONE is going to claim to have taken either of these first now. Massclaiming now is just going to out all the protective and cop cards, not catch scum.

Ironically, you cleared ABR from the reason I was earlier thinking he was scum, so

unvote, vote kast

[Kinetic]

If you are town, for the love of god STOP FUCKING POSTING YOU IDIOT.

[charter]

It wont work anymore.

[charter]

Gah I thought of a way that would have confirmed townies too. Damnation.

[Kast]

@Charter-
Is this an accurate representation of your objections to my posts?
(1) You were counting on scum being stupid and not considering that there may be a mass card claim.
(1B) You were counting on scum also being unable to independently think of lying for the first pick.
(1C) You think scum are smart enough to independently realize they cannot lie on the second or final pick.

(2) You believe that my raising the possibility that scum may be lying will help them realize that they can lie.
(2Bi) You intentionally lied to the town when you stated that scum cannot lie except when they are in consecutive picking order, despite knowing full well that they could lie.
(2Bii) You also do not believe that you directly telling them one situation in which they can lie does not help them realize that they can lie.

Specifics:
(3) You were counting on every single townie to automatically know that the 1/4 NK card is a bad choice
(3B) You were counting on every single mafia to NOT know that the 1/4 NK card is bad for townies

(4) You avoid the possibility of defensive drafting for players who picked a plague card.
(4B) You avoid the possibility of a townie vigilante via plague card.

(5) You think that a 1/2 cop card such a good card that passing it in favor of a plague card is a guaranteed sign that the player is scum, BUT this only applies for the first pick and does not apply after scum have learned that they can lie.

(6) You recognize that mass card claiming has significant drawbacks for the town, BUT you feel that the possibility that scum would BOTH not have discussed potential card claiming AND not be able to independently think about lying, compounded with the chance that scum would draw and pick cards the right combination of cards to indicate they are scum, all together outweigh all of those drawbacks.

Incidentally, if my thoughts helped you realize that your analysis of ABR's card passing was flawed, then I am glad and I hope it helps you realize that you are not infallible and there are benefits to discussing instead of keeping everything secret.

@Kinetic-
I will decline your request. You have done nothing to explain or show how my posts have hurt your secret plan.

@Kinetic & Charter-
If the mafia could independently think of the possibility of lying, OR if they did not receive either the plague OR the 1/4 NK card, then what benefit do we gain AND how does this compare to the drawbacks.

If the plan for a mass claim was not so guaranteed that it would be acceptable to ignore it and proceed with normal scumhunting, then why is it so damningly bad that I discussed it and pointed out both benefits and drawbacks?

If the plan was so guaranteed, then all the more reason to discuss it more and try to get the town to follow it.

[petroleumjelly]

Day One Vote Count #2

2 charter (Budja, ortolan)

1 AceMarksman (Rishi)
1 Albert B. Rampage (Kinetic)
1 Kast (charter)
1 populartajo (Slicey)

With

12

alive, it takes

7

to lynch and

4

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is April 15, 9:59 pm CDT.

Not Voting – 6 – AceMarksman, Albert B. Rampage, Kast, KidIcarus, populartajo, zwetschenwasser

I am at school, but I am extraordinarily displeased by a particular post in this game. I will decide how to handle it when I have more time to think on it.

[zwetschenwasser]

I don't like how charter almost got himself modkilled with his overeagerness to clear himself as town.

[charter]

Kast, you seem to just be acknoledging it's flaws, and not even considering the pro's. I'm not going to argue about massclaiming anymore because it's not going to be of much use anymore.

[zwetschenwasser]

scum would be really stupid to lie about their card choices, anyway.

[KidIcarus]

Agree with Zwet above that scum probably wouldn't lie. I also didn't see the point of spelling out everything behind the mass-claim (I was getting ready to claim too D:).

FOS: Kast

for helping his scumbuddies avoid a mass-claim. Seeing how he prevented them from outing themselves, they are probably newer players.

FOS: Newbies

.

Actually

Vote: Kast

. Unbelievable.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Ironically, you cleared ABR from the reason I was earlier thinking he was scum, so

unvote, vote kast

Elaborate

Two NK cards are with players directly below me

[AceMarksman]

Nothing is 100%. You spelling shit out doesn't help. Scum cannot communicate right now and thus cannot coordinate. Stop helping scum.

How is kast spilling out shit? what is he doing to help scum?

[AceMarksman]

Also, I

heavily

disagree that anyone who took the plague card is scum. Wouldn't a townie want to keep the scum from getting it?

[Kast]

@Charter-
Please confirm if that means my understanding of your objections is accurate. If you think any of it is mistaken then let me know, I don't want to waste time discussing something that you will just dismiss by claiming I am misrepresenting something.

Also, does your post 64 mean you are voting for me and have no intention of further the subject of that vote?

And to the best of my knowledge, I have considered and shared my thoughts on the pros as well as cons of card claiming, certainly more pros than you shared. I also made my position on claiming clear, I think it has both positive and negative effects, and probably balances out fairly neutral. Overall I would participate, but don't think the benefits outweigh the risks to a degree that justifies promoting the plan.

I don't believe that the plan has become significantly worse after sharing my thoughts, nor do I believe you have shown or come anywhere near showing the opposite.

POSITIVES (I don't believe these benefit scum from knowing)
-If we catch players drafting 1/4 NK's early, I'd think that's a pretty damning signal of scum.
-If scum lie about anything passed, we could catch them directly.
-If scum lie about the first card kept, we could catch them on Draft #2 or Draft #3 when they are potentially forced to pick the card that they initially false claimed. Either they claim to pick the card they originally picked (which may be a scummy first choice), or Draft#2 they might false claim again (potentially claiming a suboptimal choice).
-Passing BOTH apothecary AND sanctuary seems potentially scummy.
-We force scum to pick less than ideal cards on Draft 2 since they must worry about being found out.

-I'll agree that if we assume that scum are both STUPID and drafted 1/4 NK cards on their first pick, then posting as I did would help them avoid revealing themselves in that way.
-While we are assuming they are STUPID, let's maintain some consistency and acknowledge that we would catch them if they were stupid enough to lie about any passed cards. You were the one who warned scum against telling any of these lies. Does that indicate that you were warning your buddies against lying?
-In the event the scum were not stupid OR in the event that they were but Charter or Kast tipped them off, we STILL catch them on either Draft #2 or Draft #3.
-Any scummy combination of passed cards is STILL scummy and impossible for scum to lie about without being caught.
-We still force scum to pick sub-optimal cards.

It is extremely arrogant to assume that all the scum players will automatically and necessarily be stupid, and the opposite about townies.

I also don't know, nor have you shown, that prior to me posting anything, your plan definitely benefits the town. I think it is probably pretty close to neutral. Calling me scummy for wanting to discuss the benefits of your plan begs the question of whether your plan is beneficial for the town. In your initial post on the subject, you yourself admitted that you don't know if it is that great.

@Kinetic-
Your argument about the town gaining 80% more information being superior to scum gaining 50-60% is incomplete and includes a fallacy (also misuses statistics, but that's pretty irrelevant).

When an event causes both town and mafia to learn information, the town learning a larger quantity than scum does not necessarily mean that the town benefits more than scum.

I can give examples if you can't see this for yourself.

In our particular case, the information learned has different impacts on long term and short term play. This is arguable, but I would say the short term impact is beneficial for scum and the long term is beneficial to the town.

It isn't as 100% clear-cut as you presented.

@Zwet-
I think it depends. I can easily see scum lying about their first card pick if it was a 1/4 NK. They would have to be stupid to lie about any second or third pick (and we still catch them on these picks). Lying about a first pick 1/4 NK buys them time; but they still eventually get caught (if they do not win the game prior to that).

To clarify, do you believe that a hypothetical scum player who picked a 1/4 NK card as his first pick would be really stupid to lie and claim that he did not pick a 1/4 NK card?

@KidIcarus-
To clarify, are you saying you believe:
-Scum probably would not have lied PRIOR to someone telling them they should lie, but will now lie AFTER someone has told them?
-Scum probably would not have lied PRIOR to someone telling them they should lie, and STILL will not lie even AFTER someone has told them?
-Something else?
I assume the former, but correct me if I am wrong on that. I don't know but I suspect that Zwet's point is not quite the same as yours.

I think you are getting ahead of yourself in asserting that me sharing my thoughts actually benefited scum. Please establish:
(1) That scum benefit from not having a mass card claim.
(2) That my post makes the benefit to town from a mass card claim significantly worse than the benefit prior to my post.
(3) That scum would not benefit from a mass card claim prior to my post.
(4) That scum would need to be warned against participating in a mass card claim.

@Ace-
Charter carefully left himself a disclaimer by specifically naming passing a 1/2 Cop in favor of a plague card and by not calling the act of drafting a plague card a guaranteed sign of scum.

I agree that defensive drafting of plague cards is not an anti-town move. I could even understand if a townie took a plague card with the intention to use it as a vigilante.

In addition, I think that passing a 1/2 Cop is a viable and necessary move for some townies (else we get stuck in a volunteer's dilemma). It would suck if every townie grabbed their own 1/2 Cop card and the town ends the game full of 1/2 Cops but no full ones. While we could quite probably still win even without any investigations, it would be sub-optimal for the town as a whole.

[Budja]

If scum didn't plan for a mass-claim or similar in such a game then they are fools/newbies IMO.

However, I do acknowledge that Kast way over-analysed the situation and have weakened the power of a mass-claim. I am unsure if he realises this or was just trying to be helpful.

Maybe a partial claim could work. Perhaps tracking only the plague cards.

[Budja]

When an event causes both town and mafia to learn information, the town learning a larger quantity than scum does not necessarily mean that the town benefits more than scum. I can give examples if you can't see this for yourself.

I want examples.

[petroleumjelly]

charter has been warned for his Post 20. He is disallowed from discussing the matter any further in-thread. Just to clear everything up, the "extra lines" he referenced were:

Good luck, and have fun!
PJ

This was included in every role PM I sent in the game, and has in fact been in every role PM I have sent in all 21 of the other games I have finished modding. Due to clear availability of this information with minimal research, and the fact that it is not indicative of alignment, I have decided that no game-changing actions need to be taken. Please continue with the game.

[charter]

Ironically, you cleared ABR from the reason I was earlier thinking he was scum, so

unvote, vote kast

Elaborate

Two NK cards are with players directly below me

Yeah, that's what made me realize you probably weren't scum. You passed another card to me that made me think you were scum, but the others you passed outweigh this one.