Mini #764: Notre Dame Mafia, Game Over

[charter]

Actually, did the math, the max the scum can know in play right now is 50% of the cards, assuming perfect distribution, which is possible. Either way they know 40-50% of the cards currently in play.

My plan doesn't require them knowing which cards are in play, if that has any bearing on whether you're willing to give it a shot or not.

[charter]

require is a poor word to use, my plan is unaffected by them knowing cards that are in play.

[Kinetic]

Further elaboration. As long as the mafia didn't plan for a massclaim (unlikely as it's rarely done for who knows what reason) and they aren't all next to each other on the player list, I think my plan will work. They can't lie about their choices or we will know (unless they're all next to each other). I've probably said too much, sorry I can't elaborate any further right now.

Please don't ask me to clarify either, if you are skeptical just say so and we can procede with normal scumhunting.

I wasn't asking you to clarify, I already deduced this possibility on my own. Also, I've deduced a few other things which I'm also keeping quiet for now. Put me on the tentative

for

at this time if you're making a list.

[charter]

Yeah, the clarify part was an umbrella statement to everyone. I happened to simul post with you.

[Kinetic]

Actually, did the math, the max the scum can know in play right now is 50% of the cards, assuming perfect distribution, which is possible. Either way they know 40-50% of the cards currently in play.

My plan doesn't require them knowing which cards are in play, if that has any bearing on whether you're willing to give it a shot or not.

I didn't think it did, I was merely pointing out that a mass claim will help town a lot more than scum since town will learn about approximately 80% more information while scum will only learn 50-60% more information.

[charter]

Oh wow, I hadn't even thought of that. The cake sweetens...

[ortolan]

can you explain your maths on the percentage of cards the mafia might know Kinetic

At this point I think a mass-claim's a decent idea.

[charter]

can you explain your maths on the percentage of cards the mafia might know Kinetic

At this point I think a mass-claim's a decent idea.

There's 36 cards total (12 players, 3 cards each)
If scum were ideally spaced on the playerlist (ie 1, 4, 8) then they would know the original three cards they were given, plus the two passed to them, plus the one passed to them, for a total of six cards known per scum, times three scum, is 18 cards. At most 50% of the cards.

[Kinetic]

can you explain your maths on the percentage of cards the mafia might know Kinetic

At this point I think a mass-claim's a decent idea.

There's 36 cards total (12 players, 3 cards each)
If scum were ideally spaced on the playerlist (ie 1, 4, 8) then they would know the original three cards they were given, plus the two passed to them, plus the one passed to them, for a total of six cards known per scum, times three scum, is 18 cards. At most 50% of the cards.

Exactly. While each player can know at most 6 of the cards in player, which is approximately 22% of the cards in play.

[Kinetic]

can you explain your maths on the percentage of cards the mafia might know Kinetic

At this point I think a mass-claim's a decent idea.

There's 36 cards total (12 players, 3 cards each)
If scum were ideally spaced on the playerlist (ie 1, 4, 8) then they would know the original three cards they were given, plus the two passed to them, plus the one passed to them, for a total of six cards known per scum, times three scum, is 18 cards. At most 50% of the cards.

Exactly. While each player can know at most 6 of the cards in player, which is approximately 22% of the cards in play.

Err, sorry, its closer to 17%, which added up is approximately 82% of the cards are unknown to each townie. Did the math earlier and was just trying to remember off the top of my head.

[Slicey]

Eh, I'll trust your math and I agree to the mass card claim.

[ortolan]

I'm pretty sure that each player knows the cards they have, plus one card the person after them has, plus two cards one of which the person after them has and the other which the person after the person after them has, but they don't know which.

So really, they have less than a 50% knowledge of who has what card.

Your point is noted though, collectively they do have more knowledge than any one townie so a mass-claim would be good to counter-act that and catch lying scum.

[Kinetic]

I'm pretty sure that each player knows the cards they have, plus one card the person after them has, plus two cards one of which the person after them has and the other which the person after the person after them has, but they don't know which.

So really, they have less than a 50% knowledge of who has what card.

Your point is noted though, collectively they do have more knowledge than any one townie so a mass-claim would be good to counter-act that and catch lying scum.

They don't need to know exacts. Its a puzzle, things will fall into place . If things don't then someone is lying. And Liars are scum.

What format should the claim be in?

I suggest, you tell what 3 cards you drew first, which one you kept and the two you passed. The two cards you got from the next person, which one you picked and which one you passed, and your last card.

[Kinetic]

I'm pretty sure that each player knows the cards they have, plus one card the person after them has, plus two cards one of which the person after them has and the other which the person after the person after them has, but they don't know which.

So really, they have less than a 50% knowledge of who has what card.

Your point is noted though, collectively they do have more knowledge than any one townie so a mass-claim would be good to counter-act that and catch lying scum.

They don't need to know exacts. Its a puzzle, things will fall into place . If things don't then someone is lying. And Liars are scum.

What format should the claim be in?

I suggest, you tell what 3 cards you drew first, which one you kept and the two you passed. The two cards you got from the next person, which one you picked and which one you passed, and your last card.

Plus, I said they know 50% of the cards in play, not who has them.

[charter]

I'd vote everyone claims the card they kept first, once all those are done, then the card they got second, then once all those are done, the one they got last, but that might take weeks. I think the method you suggested is nearly as good.

[Slicey]

The thing is, I'm not sure how this is going to help us catch scum. They have no reason to lie about what cards they have. I'm still for it, that way town has more info, but it's not gonna bring us any closer to catching scum.

That format of claiming sounds fine.

[Slicey]

Also, I think we should go in order of the people on the list. Like AceMarksman goes first, then ABR and so on.

[Rishi]

I think mass cardclaim is a bad idea. I don’t think we need to tell the scum who has the sanctuaries, apothecaries, etc. Knowing which players have which powers makes it a lot easier for the scum to plan.

[Kinetic]

The thing is, I'm not sure how this is going to help us catch scum. They have no reason to lie about what cards they have. I'm still for it, that way town has more info, but it's not gonna bring us any closer to catching scum.

That format of claiming sounds fine.

It will, I'm not sure what charter's plan is, but my own sees it a way to catch scum with it. Multiple, in fact.

[Kast]

I've been thinking about mass claim as well. I think on the whole it is probably neutral and depends strongly on what cards scum got in their first round pick. I am not against, but I don't see it as a game breaking strategy or at all a sure catch scum.

@Charter-
Does the mechanism by which your plan successfully catches scum depend on the scum NOT knowing the mechanism?

@Kinetic-
Same question to you?

If no to either, I'd like each of you to share your method. More minds can help find benefits or flaws. If it really is a sure fire method to catch scum, then I think it is definitely worth sharing and making sure that we do engage in it.

POSITIVES (I don't believe these benefit scum from knowing)
-If we catch players drafting 1/4 NK's early, I'd think that's a pretty damning signal of scum.
-If scum lie about anything passed, we could catch them directly.
-If scum lie about the first card kept, we could catch them on Draft #2 or Draft #3 when they are potentially forced to pick the card that they initially false claimed. Either they claim to pick the card they originally picked (which may be a scummy first choice), or Draft#2 they might false claim again (potentially claiming a suboptimal choice).
-Passing BOTH apothecary AND sanctuary seems potentially scummy.
-We force scum to pick less than ideal cards on Draft 2 since they must worry about being found out.

NEUTRAL
-One thing that I keep coming to when I think about this is that scum can safely lie about the first card they picked, I don't see any guaranteed way to catch them TODAY.
-Potentially Draft 2 or Draft 3 could catch them (as above), but even assuming perfect initial distribution, they could manipulate the picking order with kills by Draft 2 (and certianly by Draft 3).
-Another thing, I asked the mod prior to game start, and cards are not revealed upon death. Not really a positive or negative regarding a mass claim, but I think it is important to keep in mind.
-Committing to mass claiming will need to be a commitment for at least the first two drafting nights. If we commit now but don't follow through later, we give scum HUGE freedom to lie.

NEGATIVE
-Mass claiming seems perfectly suited for removing any *cops* or *vigilante* town players.
-While I think the 1/4 NK is probably the absolutely worst card townies could use (3 wasted nights, then probable NK protection AND commitment prior to knowing if you'll ever get any more of those cards); I think the 1/2 cop is extremely valuable for the town and mass claiming will probably screw us regarding that.
-Rishi's point of protection is also valid (although I'd argue more the apothecary is important rather than the sanctuary and both over doc).
-This COMPLETELY SCREWS the town if scum have lots of plagues (arguably we are already screwed if they have lots of plagues).

I need to think about it more, but if you have sure fire reasons for doing this, then please share them. The positives are only really useful depending what cards scum got, same for the negatives.

Personally, I prefer having more information, so I would definitely go along with this plan. Atm, I don't think it is such a clear slam dunk pro-town strategy that it warrants trying to convince others to follow it.

[Kast]

@Scum distribution-
One thing I missed. I realize you were positing on potential distribution that gives scum the maximum information about cards, HOWEVER, I want to make it clear that I don't think this is a safe assumption (you aren't pushing it, but I don't want anyone to later jump on this and lead the town astray with it). If we catch one scum, I think it is very unsafe to jump down four players and lynch.

I do think that having a pick order gives us an additional tool to help evaluate whether a player is potentially scum and who their scumbuddies are.

[Kinetic]

You sir are an idiot.

[Kast]

@Kinetic-
Sorry, one more thing, I can't imagine that you could determine any player with 90% certainty as early in the game as you did. There is a clear but unspoken inference that the player above you (who passed you cards) is your certain townie, but I can't imagine any combination of cards passed that could give you a 90% confidence.

There are 648 combinations of cards he could have passed you, I would imagine that the majority of those combinations are not very indicative of alignment. I assume you will explain if we go ahead with the mass claim?

[Kast]

@Kinetic-
Explain?

[Kinetic]

I'm in class posting by iPhone. Suffice to say I cannot explain in depth. However, you are still an idiot.