Ok... let's start..
First, some facts:
1. Based on role information I have, every player has 2 "states" and people in opposite states have full protection from the other's abilities. This may explain why we had so many kills N1 and so few in N2. Which brings me to..
2. 7:2:2:1 setup is insane. That would mean that we're currently in a 2:2:1 with the 1 being a townie which is an unbelievable D3 scenario.
3. Ortolan killed FL.. that's obvious. The fact that she was Suzumiya Haruhi seems like a freaky coincidence at this point. However, since his kill is rapid, why was there no death D2? Probably because he targeted someone in a different state than he is (see #1).
Anyway, so let's recap what happened so far.
PJ calls Malt/Percy a scum team out of the blue, claims he has reason to believe why and never states what it is. On top of that, he claims he tried killing Percy last night which doesn't really tell me how that helped him decide that Percy is scum.
Then Budja claims cop also claiming a guilty on percy. There are several problems I have with this and what followed it:
- a simple cop claim is too simple for a game with 'complicated' roles where even a doctor role has a twist on it, unless he's a mafia cop
- this seems over-orchestrated by a scum team.. first PJ, then Budja, then PJ agreeing and FOS'ing Percy to start the day
- Budja, probably realizing that they may have overplayed their hand, unvotes
- all of these suspicions and hindsight conclusions are confirmed by....
Percy counterclaims Budja's target with a townie copier role. This claim makes more sense, especially after Budja's claim. In addition, the "Alpha Mafia" role, if true, supports PJ's sudden suggestion that there are two scum teams. Then, to further support the idea that Budja is lying and Percy isn't, Budja's response to Percy's claim is very fishy:
Budja wrote:Wow, that is one nice fake-claim.
You are a "watcher/cop" type role then. Oh and look, you just happen have a guilty on me
. How very... convenient.
You probably have a mafia safeclaim/falseclaim power similar to Ort. Tar made a nice one for you, but it is still a lie.
If Budja really DID investigate Percy and come up with a guilty result, why would he assume that Percy's claim means that, if anything, he's a "watcher"? Not to outguess the mod or anything, but a watcher mafia makes absolutely no sense to me. Which further makes me think that Budja got caught in a lie and is floundering for solutions to explain it. At which point...
PJ tries to come to the rescue, continuing with the idea that he tried killing Percy (which didn't suceed because of #1) but adding that he's a bulletproof jack of all trades. He also mentions that, all of a sudden, he thinks that Percy has an ability similar to Ortolan's (an odd thing to assume since he admitted to not doing any investigations/tracking/watching last night). This to me looks like scum whose plan backfired and they're now floundering helplessly.
In conclusion, Percy's analysis in 298 is dead on.
FOS: Budja
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
-Fight Club