Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over
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popsofctown SheSurvivorShe
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ffffff"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"-
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bionicchop2 Mafia Scum
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1.SpyreX wrote:Ohh hay look at that.
2.
I think it was a mistake for me to reveal who was jailed the previous night as scum took advantage of the fact I cannot jail the same person twice and killed who I had jailed the previous night. At this time I don't think the information of who I targeted for jailing helps us find scum.Jahudo wrote: BC who did you target last night?
3. I am assuming a mislynch and lose situation. Best case scenario is 3 mafia (I guess 2 is truly best case) and no SK. If we are looking at 3+1 right now, then the town is no longer a true majority and winning will be quite difficult. IF we have a SK, they actually need to kill mafia now or they lose, so that benefits us slightly. If we are in a 5 vs 3 situation (and even a 4 vs 3 vs 1) I am mulling the idea of a no lynch.The above written statement is pro-town.-
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Rishi A Meer townie
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On Point 2, I disagree. We know there was a kill last night and that'd give us information on who didn't send the kill.bionicchop2 wrote:2.
I think it was a mistake for me to reveal who was jailed the previous night as scum took advantage of the fact I cannot jail the same person twice and killed who I had jailed the previous night. At this time I don't think the information of who I targeted for jailing helps us find scum.Jahudo wrote: BC who did you target last night?
3. I am assuming a mislynch and lose situation. Best case scenario is 3 mafia (I guess 2 is truly best case) and no SK. If we are looking at 3+1 right now, then the town is no longer a true majority and winning will be quite difficult. IF we have a SK, they actually need to kill mafia now or they lose, so that benefits us slightly. If we are in a 5 vs 3 situation (and even a 4 vs 3 vs 1) I am mulling the idea of a no lynch.
I don't understand why an SK would have to kill Mafia to not lose. In most setups I've seen, the Mafia can't win unless the SK is dead. In any case, I think this is all academic. As Jahudo said, we can't still assume that there is only one killing group, but I'm finding it increasingly likely. Can't be 4 scum, or we've already lost. So I'm guessing it's 3 scum and lynch-or-lose.
If that's the case, No Lynch is the right play.-
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bionicchop2 Mafia Scum
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And if I jailed mafia, then they know to have that player send in the kill tonight.Rishi wrote: On Point 2, I disagree. We know there was a kill last night and that'd give us information on who didn't send the kill.
It's just a function of math and itRishi wrote:I don't understand why an SK would have to kill Mafia to not lose.technicallyis not 100% true. More specifically a SK cannot kill town tonight or mafia would potentially have 50% of the game.
Yup.Rishi wrote:In any case, I think this is all academic.
By lynch or lose here, I assume you mean mislynch and lose. Lynch or lose means we must lynch and it must be scum. ItRishi wrote:As Jahudo said, we can't still assume that there is only one killing group, but I'm finding it increasingly likely. Can't be 4 scum, or we've already lost. So I'm guessing it's 3 scum and lynch-or-lose.canbe 4 scum without town losing, but it becomes almost a prisoner's dilemma where we can't win without unintentional assistance from scum (cross kill).
I think 5 town 3 scum (even 2 mafia , 1 SK variant) works for a NL to reduce suspects. If it is worst case of 4 town and 4 scum I still feel the same since lynching SK in that case loses the game for town (unless a kill is prevented).Rishi wrote: If that's the case, No Lynch is the right play.The above written statement is pro-town.-
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iamausername Mafia Scum
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Rishi A Meer townie
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I always used lynch-or-lose to mean if we lynch a pro-town player, then the scum have won. Doesn't matter, though. I'm not in the mood to argue semantics. My point still stands.bionicchop2 wrote:By lynch or lose here, I assume you mean mislynch and lose. Lynch or lose means we must lynch and it must be scum. Itcanbe 4 scum without town losing, but it becomes almost a prisoner's dilemma where we can't win without unintentional assistance from scum (cross kill).
And you are correct. There can be four scum. I was talking about a single scumteam of 4 (was being semi-facetious).
Want to hear from the others, but No Lynch is looking better and better.-
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Jahudo Mafia Scum
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Huntress Mafia Scum
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Rishi A Meer townie
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Wishy-washiness, thy name is Huntress.Huntress wrote:I'm going to have to think some more about the lynch/no lynch choice although at the moment I'm favouring no lynch based on the numbers. I can see advantages to both but I haven't really thought it through yet.
Not if you're scum, but for the rest of us, yes.Huntress wrote: Is it too soon to talk about a mass claim?-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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No lynch removes the mylo issue to a good ol' fashioned lylo.
Not saying we shouldn't chat it up today, but I'm thinking NL as well.
Ohh, nice touche' Bio.
More words later.-
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Vi Professor Paragon
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Vote Count:[unchanged]
*cricket* *cricket*
Minimum (L-5)
Not Voting:bionicchop2, Huntress, iamausername, Jahudo, CF Riot, Moriarty147, Rishi, SpyreX
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Huntress - 0 | iamausername - 0 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 1 | Moriarty147 - 1 | Rishi - 0 | SpyreX - -1[/size]
First Deadline Review: Sunday, April 5 2009
Current Deadline: Thursday, April 9 2009
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I totally went to sleep last night. Sorry.Everything you say and do matters. People will respond in ways you may never see. May those responses be what you intend.-
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Jahudo Mafia Scum
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Huntress, weren't you going to make a post yesterday? Or were you reading just to catch up?
The only way for a no lynch to find scum is if they try to night kill.
Advantages: successful watcher or if there's a dead mafia/sk we know there has always been two killing factions
Disadvantages: we might lose 1-2 townies. We don't know if we have a watcher. If we have a 3 mafia 1 sk scenario even the SK shouldn't want to kill because they might lose too.
So the best case scenario is a hypothetical SK dies or a hypothetical watcher finds the killer.
If there aren't any NK's that doesn't automatically mean someone stopped a kill. But there isn't any disadvantage here if we don't lose someone.
What do other people think?-
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CF Riot Mafia Scum
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I doubt we have 3-1 in a twelve man game with no cop. Plus 3 flipped vanillas. I'm thinking it's probably 3 maf, 2 maf + SK, or 2 maf + 2 maf in that order.
In 3 mafia, no lynch helps by eliminating a suspect plus possible night results. I don't really see any disadvantage.
In 2+1 worst case (no protects, no cross kills) it could potentially take us to D4 with a 3 town 2 mafia and 1 SK mylo where hitting the SK would lose the game, and even then we'd need at least 1 cross kill the following night to have a shot at winning. But if there were a protect or a cross kill the first night it would be significantly better. Best case is double cross kill leading to a 5 town 1 mafia D4 with a tracker result on the last mafioso. That'd be the luckiest night in mafia history though.
In 2+2 worst case would be 2,2,2 D4. I don't really know what town strategy is in that situation. But going into N3 (tonight) each scum team would have a 1/3 probability of hitting the other team, plus possible protects plus possible watcher results. Best case is 4,1,1 plus tracker results. I think 2 scum teams of 2 is the least likely set-up though.
So basically if there's one scum group, no lynch is optimal play. If there's two then regardless of which set-up it is, if we no lynch and things go bad, they go very bad. If we no lynch and get lucky, it could be a pretty big gain. I think the chances of things goingperfectly wrongare pretty low, and a 3 man team seems like the most probable set-up anyways. I think I'm pro-no lynch.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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With the 1-kills each night the only caveat would be that IF there are two kills tonight we're boned on a couple fronts.
I see that as highly unlikely, however.
So, I'll go ahead and be that guy
Vote: No Lynch
I want to reread with my full tinfoil hat on. Hopefully that'll be tonight/tomorrow because I'm lookin like V/LA from Thurs/Sun-
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Rishi A Meer townie
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Vi Professor Paragon
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Vote Count:
No Lynch (L-2) ~ SpyreX, Rishi
Minimum (L-5)
Not Voting:bionicchop2, Huntress, iamausername, Jahudo, CF Riot, Moriarty147,Rishi, SpyreX
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 1 | Huntress - 1 | iamausername - 1 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 0 | Moriarty147 - 2 | Rishi - 0 | SpyreX - 0[/size]
First Deadline Review: Sunday, April 5 2009
Current Deadline: Thursday, April 9 2009
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Don't forget Rule 4. With 8 alive, it takes 4 to prevent any other majority.
I know the rules are really long and detailed, but that's because I wanted to be prepared for as many possible nitpicky situations as I could get.Everything you say and do matters. People will respond in ways you may never see. May those responses be what you intend.-
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Jahudo Mafia Scum
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Huntress Mafia Scum
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Happy Birthday Vi
I'm not going to make a decision without thinking it through first, and I was too tired to do that then.Rishi wrote:Wishy-washiness, thy name is Huntress.
I wondered who was going to be first to try and make something of that.Rishi wrote:
Not if you're scum, but for the rest of us, yes.Huntress wrote:Is it too soon to talk about a mass claim?
Actually I don't think it's too early to talk about it if we really are in lylo, which we more or less are if we have a group of three scum, but perhaps you know otherwise? Why don't you think it's a good idea? When do you think would be a better time?
Having thought about a No lynch I've come to the conclusion that the ones who have most to gain from it are the scum, especially if one or more of them have been attracting attention. Or maybe it's just seeing that my two top suspects are the first to vote for it that is putting me off for the moment.
Yes, I was going to post something about SpyreX, Rishi and a couple of others, but I didn't get it finished in time. I'll do it when I've checked back to see if the last two reveals affect my views at all.Jahudo wrote:Huntress, weren't you going to make a post yesterday? Or were you reading just to catch up?.-
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CF Riot Mafia Scum
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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If there is three allied scum then today is NOT lylo - it is mylo. There's no "more or less" about it. That is why no lynching makes sense.Actually I don't think it's too early to talk about it if we really are in lylo, which we more or less are if we have a group of three scum, but perhaps you know otherwise? Why don't you think it's a good idea? When do you think would be a better time?
We'll leave aside the fact you still haven't given this "case" on me, but - how does no lynching today alter any suspicion anyone has?Having thought about a No lynch I've come to the conclusion that the ones who have most to gain from it are the scum, especially if one or more of them have been attracting attention. Or maybe it's just seeing that my two top suspects are the first to vote for it that is putting me off for the moment.
The only negative(s) there are is 1.) the fact there is a 0% chance of hanging scum today and 2.) the possibility the NK is a power role.
I'm fairly sure that is outweighed by the fact that if we lynch wrong we lose the game.
So, please elaborate - business like this does make me want to lynch. You.-
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Rishi A Meer townie
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If we're talking about No Lynch (which I still think is the best option), a mass claim is a horrible idea. The scum shouldn't know where the power roles are.Huntress wrote: Actually I don't think it's too early to talk about it if we really are in lylo, which we more or less are if we have a group of three scum, but perhaps you know otherwise? Why don't you think it's a good idea? When do you think would be a better time?-
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Vi Professor Paragon
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Vote Count:
No Lynch (L-2) ~ SpyreX, Rishi
Minimum (L-5)
Not Voting:bionicchop2, Huntress, iamausername, Jahudo, CF Riot, Moriarty147
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 2 | Huntress - 0 | iamausername - 2 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 0 | Moriarty147 - 3 PROD1 0 | Rishi - 0 | SpyreX - 0[/size]
First Deadline Review: Sunday, April 5 2009
Current Deadline: Thursday, April 9 2009
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Moriarty147 has received his first prod of the day.
Many thanks and much love for the birthday wishes. Thank you all... for the well-wishes, and also for making this game such a success.
...I probably shouldn't say that before it's over, should I? Well, it's been a success so far at least.Everything you say and do matters. People will respond in ways you may never see. May those responses be what you intend.-
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Moriarty147 Goon
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FWIW, I'm not sure if this is the norm for this forum, but on the forum where I usually play mafia on, it is customary for the mod to announce at the beginning of the day if a certain action undertaken on that day will make the game unwinnable for town from this point on.
I have not seen this done outside Semi-/Open setups on this site. ~Vi
In any order, I'm perfectly fine with the No Lynch scenario and think it's the best thing that we can do today. I'm not voting it until I can get a re-read in, which means I should vote tomorrow.
As for massclaiming today, that is a terrible idea. ESPECIALLY if we are voting no lynch. We really do not need scum targeting all the power roles this early on if it can be avoided.
FWIW (again), I'm kind of vaguely surprised that OGML/ToD was the NK and not bio...considering OGML/ToD was vaguely suspicious whereas bio had an aura of being townie (therefore an unlikely mis-lynch) *and* on top of that was also a power role.
Not sure if following down this path is a good idea, as NK speculation is pretty much Universally Bad(TM) and guaranteed to lead you into traps and mazes of WIFOM, but still, it *is* something worthy of note imho.
Oh and btw, happy (belated) birthday Vi!-
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bionicchop2 Mafia Scum
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@Moriarty - I am convinced the kills are simply people not likely to be watched, protected or jailed. This is why I am suspicious of the call to massclaim from Huntress. One of the few advantages we have left is that scum don't know if we have watchers, doctors or roleblockers floating around. I can see the advantages of massclaim in some games, but I can't see how it would help in a game where all roles are listed on the front page and the number of each role is unknown.The above written statement is pro-town.-
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Vi Professor Paragon
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Vote Count:(unchanged)
No Lynch (L-2) ~ SpyreX, Rishi
Minimum (L-5)
Not Voting:bionicchop2, Huntress, iamausername, Jahudo, CF Riot, Moriarty147
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Huntress - 1 | iamausername - 3 PROD0 0 | Jahudo - 1 | CF Riot - 1 | Moriarty147 - 0 PROD1 1 | Rishi - 1 | SpyreX - 1[/size]
First Deadline Review: Sunday, April 5 2009
Current Deadline: Thursday, April 9 2009
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iamausername has received his first prod of the day.
Ah, the sound of a game screeching to a halt.Everything you say and do matters. People will respond in ways you may never see. May those responses be what you intend.
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