Mini 745 - Moving Day Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[Sotty7]

I'd like to take this opportunity to remind EA ...

Note to self: if I'm ever in a game where I'm scum and Plonky isn't, I must remember to lurk the hell out of that game.

... of the fact that Plonky has been replaced.

vote: EA

I have no idea what you are trying to say with this vote. Can you explain please?

EA is lurking, and I consider this particular bit of lurking suspicious. As Porkens pointed out in 497, he's conspicuously said nothing about acfan's claim or whether he will counterclaim. Also, I've reviewed the votes on the last few pages of day 1. EA had no votes during the last two pages before the lynch, which really stands out if you diagram the votes/claims/cardflips. I've made such a diagram, and I'd be happy to post it, but I have no idea how.

Am I particularly suspicious that EA is scum? Not really, but he needs to post a lot more or I will be. Lurking and/or noncontributing seems like a strategy that scum are more likely to take after a townie was mislynched for it. They can rely on remorse to make town-sided people hesitate to carry out a second lurker lynch.

Okay I see your point and agree with EA being a lurker. He really does need to comment on the SK situation we have here as well. He really didn't post much at all during day one. Not sure if I agree that scum would lurk after a mislynch though. I believe that really depends on the kind of player we are dealing with.

I agree. In fact Ac hasn't been helpful at all. I mean, he needs us to not lynch him today to even get close to a win. The fact that he doesn't seem willing to not kill tonight is almost enough for me to vote him. I still think there is a strong chance he could be a mafia member as well.

Umm, I said I would be willing to not kill tonight. Right here That doesn't mean that's necessarily what will happen, but I would be willing to. Like I said early, it depends on the conditions when we go into the night. But I do have my own win condition to keep in mind, just getting rid of the mafia isn't my goal.

Yeah I know what you said.

I'll do whatever helps me win.

The fact is you have claimed SK, there is a very small chance you are going to win now. You will be lynched at some point or killed by the scum. If you want to survive today you should be telling us that you will do what ever we ask. You are not. You are trying to stay true to your win condition which while admirable, is a near impossibility for you. The fact you aren't just willing to let the town guide you is another black mark against you.

I agree. In fact Ac hasn't been helpful at all. I mean, he needs us to not lynch him today to even get close to a win. The fact that he doesn't seem willing to not kill tonight is almost enough for me to vote him. I still think there is a strong chance he could be a mafia member as well.

Actually, I think he said that he

might

be willing not to kill tonight, depending on whether or not he thinks it would help him achieve his personal win condition. But that doesn't really give me any comfort since (a) if he is a SK, his personal win condition requires him to survive all of us and the scum; (b) we have no reason to trust him; (c) if we mislynch today and he kills a townie tonight, we are pretty much guaranteed to lose; (d) as previously mentioned, I don't really care for the idea of putting our fate into the hands of an admitted anti-role role; and (e) it is entirely possible that he's scum fake-claiming SK.

Regards,
Jazz

Yeah he said

might

. The whole tone of that post was basically I'm going to look out for me, at least that's how I read it and I don't like it.

I'm also very worried about points b, c,d and e.

Scotty and Jazz, you've both indicated a willingness to hang AC today. Can we make this a reality (or at least Reality -1)?

I want to hear what Tov's replacement and Hero have to say before I commit my vote to Ac.

Top of page 23 vote count:

ac1983fan 2 (Porkens, don_johnson)
Porkens 2 (Erratus Apathos, ac1983fan)
Erratus Apathos 1 (Herodotus)

Not voting: Jazzmyn, Erratus Apathos, Sotty7, Tovarish, Zer0ph34r, don_johnson

With 9 still packing it takes 5 to lynch.

Note: this vote count should be accurate as of this post.

Prods: Will check tonight, about to hit the road for a long drive home

Still looking for a replacement for Tovarish and now adding EA to that list.

[don_johnson]

First of all, if I'm alive and we choose to try and lynch mafia, the chances of us hitting mafia are changed from 3/9 to 3/8 for today.

if you are sk and we lynch you(assuming three scum), tomorrows chances are 3/6 of hitting scum give or take actions of any unclaimed power roles.

Secondly, if things are starting to look mafia sided, (ie we mislynch)

I can attempt to kill a mafia member and hope that the pro-town roleblocker knows the numbers and that the mafia doesn't have a roleblocker

.

did anyone claim "pro town roleblocker"? how do you know that there is one?

we should lynch ac1983fan. even if he is sk we will most likely still have numbers in our favor tomorrow. knowing his actual alignment will be very useful either way.

[Herodotus]

Let's assume for this post that acfan is the SK (the only people who might believably CC right now are Tovarish or EA.) Then the people who really need him dead are the mafia. In fact, they have such a strong motive to get him killed that they should be willing to out one of their own to get him killed. That was my point in saying that someone would need to counterclaim. As long as acfan is alive, the game has an element that is detrimental to the mafia and beyond their control (unless acfan can in fact be NK'ed -- a fact which he would obviously not want to reveal.) But he can't be lynched without the help of the town, so the mafia need our help to eliminate him. His lynch is thus a potential subject for compromise. As long as the mafia has such a big advantage (they're 2 townies and a cop ahead,) the town deciding to lynch him with nothing in return would pretty much hand the game over to them; but if they made a sacrifice of information to get him lynched, it would still be very advantageous to them, but the game would still have some balance for the remaining factions.
To throw out some rough numbers generated purely by intuition, say the probabilities of win are as follows:
(town, mafia, SK)

1. We lynch someone other than ac on the basis of suspecting that person: if we hit a town-sided person, ac will definitely try to hit mafia; if we lynch mafia, he's unpredictable. Either way, there's a good chance that exactly one mafia member will die and tomorrow will somewhat resemble today. There's a risk of killing two town-sided people, but assuming three mafia and slightly better than random guessing, the probability of that is less than one in four. And that's still not a guaranteed loss. And one or two dead mafia would be quite beneficial.
(25%, 40%, 35%)

2. We lynch ac without finding out who the mafia are: then there remains a group of either two or three mafia who have strictly improved from the beginning of the game. Our odds at best slightly improve, but the mafia has gained enormous dividends. Compare this situation to a typical, one scum-team game, where the mafia has around 60% odds; here we'd be starting with four dead town-sided people, and acfan's lynch would not have resulted in much information.
(28%, 72%, 0%)

3. A mafia member counterclaims or confesses to being mafia, and we lynch ac: then there is one uncovered mafia who has an extra day and night to live, and there are one or two mafia remaining after that person is lynched tomorrow.
(42%, 58%, 0%)

4. A mafia member counterclaims or confesses to being mafia, and we lynch them: not much different from the first scenario, except the town and acfan are guaranteed not to accidentally kill two town-sided people. This may be worse for the mafia, but there is no chance the town will choose it, because it's worse than option #3.
(30%, 33%, 37%)

My point is that killing acfan might help the town slightly, but it helps the mafia greatly. In fact, it is so helpful to them that it's worth it for one of them to confess in order to get the SK lynched. And it's safe to do so, because it will give us a better reason to lynch acfan. But if the mafia isn't willing to meet us halfway, then I support taking a chance, since it doesn't hurt our odds by more than a couple percentage points.


@Don, I understand what you're saying, but in the unlikely event that you think you've gained some information, I can assure you that your information will be misleading.

[Herodotus]

EBWOP:
Scenario 3 should be more like
(35%, 65%, 0%)
since if there are three mafia, we'd still be in LYLO on day 4 with two of them left.

[don_johnson]

hero: i don't know if i want to gamble. that's basically what you want us to do. also, we are all completely ignoring the fact that their may be a two player scum team and not three. i believe that would screw up the math for most of this.

porkens: in mini 730 i believe you only had one partner, correct?


the fact that acfan speaks "knowingly" of a pro town roleblocker seems to me as though possibly either he or his scumbuddy were "roleblocked". this to me would be indicative of a two person scum team with some ability(s). also, acfan could be setting the stage for a scum roleblocker to claim "pro town". i just don't see acfan as sk, especially since he doesn't seem to know whether or not he is immune to nightkill.

hero: my suspicion of you has faded. i have mulled it over and though your posts seem a little contrived it occurred to me that if you were scumbuddies with acfan there is no way you could have known of the existence of sk before the start of day 2. do scum ever get to day talk outside game threads? i highly doubt that scenario. also, ea's behavior has been off since the start of this discussion, especially his chiming in for a poorly reasoned vote on porkens. anyway, barring a scum confession, counterclaim, or juicy exchange, i will only be moving my vote to avoid a no lynch. acfan claimed anti town. i think we are foolish to bargain with scum.

[Herodotus]

hero: i don't know if i want to gamble. that's basically what you want us to do. also, we are all completely ignoring the fact that their may be a two player scum team and not three. i believe that would screw up the math for most of this.

porkens: in mini 730 i believe you only had one partner, correct?

Well, we have to "gamble" either way; the game of mafia has plenty of chance involved. If we lynch acfan and he's the SK, we might be in lylo tomorrow, which is a gamble, and if we keep him alive, it's a gamble. And my exact words were "I support," so yeah, that's what I want us to do -- I don't understand what you mean by pointing that out.
As far as having two mafia is concerned, that was my first thought when acfan started talking about tomorrow being lylo, but yesterday I saw Invitational 10 with 3 mafia, 1 SK, and 8 town-sided people. So I don't know how many there are, but it's definitely easier to figure the odds under the condition of 3 mafia members, and that's definitely a possible scenario. I'd also think that if there were 2 mafia, that would just boost the town's chances in all scenarios, maybe also adding a little to the SK's odds if we don't lynch him. It's also significant that we won't know fur sure until the game is over.

i just don't see acfan as sk, especially since he doesn't seem to know whether or not he is immune to nightkill.

It's possible he intentionally chose not to state it one way or the other for the WIFOM. But whether he says it or not doesn't really matter, I think. If he lives until night, the mafia would want to NK him, because killing him is pretty important to them, but they're also not sure whether they can. Honestly, I think I'd prefer he didn't tell us; that information (which I note that you subtly asked for) would help only the mafia. In fact, if he does answer, he should probably lie. Or tell the truth but make it look like a lie. Or lie but make it look like he's telling the truth but pretending to lie, etc...

hero: my suspicion of you has faded. i have mulled it over and though your posts seem a little contrived it occurred to me that if you were scumbuddies with acfan there is no way you could have known of the existence of sk before the start of day 2. do scum ever get to day talk outside game threads? i highly doubt that scenario. also, ea's behavior has been off since the start of this discussion, especially his chiming in for a poorly reasoned vote on porkens. anyway, barring a scum confession, counterclaim, or juicy exchange, i will only be moving my vote to avoid a no lynch. acfan claimed anti town. i think we are foolish to bargain with scum.

I also doubt that the mafia can daytalk, though if acfan and I were mafia, we could have arranged for some signal that would have indicated that I wanted him to go along with the claim request. But I think it would have been a bad idea for two mafia members to put such a ploy together.

i just don't see acfan as sk, especially since he doesn't seem to know whether or not he is immune to nightkill.

Is there any pro-town reason for you to want acfan to reveal whether he is immune to nightkill?

[ac1983fan]

Umm, I said I would be willing to not kill tonight. Right here That doesn't mean that's necessarily what will happen, but I would be willing to. Like I said early, it depends on the conditions when we go into the night. But I do have my own win condition to keep in mind, just getting rid of the mafia isn't my goal.

Yeah I know what you said.

I'll do whatever helps me win.

The fact is you have claimed SK, there is a very small chance you are going to win now. You will be lynched at some point or killed by the scum. If you want to survive today you should be telling us that you will do what ever we ask. You are not. You are trying to stay true to your win condition which while admirable, is a near impossibility for you. The fact you aren't just willing to let the town guide you is another black mark against you.[/quote]
First of all, I'm NK immune, so the scum can't night kill me. Secondly, I have to try and fulfill my win condition, otherwise, what is the point of playing the game? I only claimed because the town and I share a common goal of getting rid of the mafia.

Secondly, if things are starting to look mafia sided, (ie we mislynch)

I can attempt to kill a mafia member and hope that the pro-town roleblocker knows the numbers and that the mafia doesn't have a roleblocker

.

did anyone claim "pro town roleblocker"? how do you know that there is one?

I don't

know

that there is one, but one would think there might be.

[Porkens]

Herod; If we kill AC today, town has 0 chance of loosing tonight. If we don't, that number increases significantly.

porkens: in mini 730 i believe you only had one partner, correct?

correct (this was a 12 person that had 2 mafia, and 1 SK, <one of the mafia was immune to SK kills>)

[Porkens]

But you know what? The more I think about how many Cop, Tracker, and Watcher reports we've gotten today, the more likely 2 scum sound. That's a scenario in which this plan is quite a bit more efficacious.

[ac1983fan]

But you know what? The more I think about how many Cop, Tracker, and Watcher reports we've gotten today,

What do you mean? nobody's claimed tracker or watcher... And the cop is dead...

[Porkens]

What do you mean? nobody's claimed tracker or watcher... And the cop is dead...

Uh huh, so...Power heavy town...not so much.

[ac1983fan]

What do you mean? nobody's claimed tracker or watcher... And the cop is dead...

Uh huh, so...Power heavy town...not so much.

Maybe there's not any trackers/watchers, maybe they chose not to claim because they didn't have any info? There might be a backup cop, a roleblocker (more likely than tracker/watcher IMO), almost certainly a doc...
Oh, btw

I will be V/LA from friday night to sunday mid-morning, and I will also be V/LA from the 26th to the 29th.

Noted, thank you

[Porkens]

Maybe there's not any trackers/watchers, maybe they chose not to claim because they didn't have any info? There might be a backup cop, a roleblocker (more likely than tracker/watcher IMO), almost certainly a doc...

Yeah, you're probably right. Ok you've convinced me.

[Jazzmyn]

Yeah he said

might

. The whole tone of that post was basically I'm going to look out for me, at least that's how I read it and I don't like it.
I'm also very worried about points b, c,d and e.

Agreed. And his subsequent posts have not alleviated my concerns any.

Scotty and Jazz, you've both indicated a willingness to hang AC today. Can we make this a reality (or at least Reality -1)?

I am leaning in that direction but I would prefer to hear from Tovarish's replacement first if possible. If that is not possible (as the mod has indicated that he isn't going to hold up the entire game over it), then I will probably vote acfan rather than taking the risks set out in my prior post.

Regards,
Jazz

[Zer0ph34r]

For right now, I am going to assume that I am paranoid because assuming that I am sane will have worse consequences than if we were to assume I am sane. At this point in the game, what do you guys think would be best, a lynch today or no lynch? Because we're getting down to it with 3 pro-towns gone. And to my memory, q21 never claimed to be a cop and did not get the chance to investigate, or at least tell us, so that kind of makes things difficult at the moment.

[Jazzmyn]

First of all, if I'm alive and we choose to try and lynch mafia, the chances of us hitting mafia are changed from 3/9 to 3/8 for today. Secondly, if things are starting to look mafia sided, (ie we mislynch) I can attempt to kill a mafia member and hope that the pro-town roleblocker knows the numbers and that the mafia doesn't have a roleblocker.

That did not actually address my post or the specific concerns raised in it at all. Please, try again, and please address the specific points raised in the post to which you were directed. You seem to have (a) firstly, ignored it, and (b) secondly, tapdanced around it.

As an aside, what is with the "ie we mislynch" phrasing of yours? Since when was a serial killer part of any "we" and since when did a serial killer "mislynch" anyone, since its role is to kill everyone except itself?

And why you are now positing the existence of a town role blocker as though it is a given when there is no evidence that this is the case, and dismissing the possibility of a scum roleblocker with the wave of a hand when the latter is just as possible as the former?

I am not getting anything from your posts that makes me want to put my faith or the fate of the town into your hands, as the claimed serial killer that you are, sorry. I don't see any reason to trust you, and I don't see anything in your posts that leads me to believe that you will act in a manner that benefits us. I don't blame you for playing to your win condition, of course, but your win condition does not coincide with the town win condition, and I just don't see any reason to trust you. If we mislynch today and you kill a townie tonight, you will pretty much assure a town loss. I am not feeling inclined to take that risk.

Unless someone can explain otherwise, I am just not seeing the benefit of leaving a claimed anti-town role alive today in the circumstances in which we find ourselves presently.

Regards,
Jazz

[don_johnson]

i just don't see acfan as sk, especially since he doesn't seem to know whether or not he is immune to nightkill.

Is there any pro-town reason for you to want acfan to reveal whether he is immune to nightkill?

i never asked him to reveal. i would rather he didn't, however, when he approached the subject in an earlier post it sounded as if he did not know. i.e. it didn't seem like he was bluffing or avoiding. i will look back for the quote when i have time, but it was something in particular that stood out to me.

acfan: why would one think there might be a "pro town" roleblocker? possibilities are endless, but your statement seemed to exhibit actual knowledge and not just a possibility. your statement says you "hope that the pro town roleblocker knows the numbers", not "if there is a protown roleblocker, i hope he knows the numbers." get it. seems lilke a slip to me.

zero: what the hell are you talking about? what does your "sanity" have to do with any of this? i don't think a no lynch would do us any good. why do you suggest it?

[Jazzmyn]

As far as having two mafia is concerned, that was my first thought when acfan started talking about tomorrow being lylo, but yesterday I saw Invitational 10 with 3 mafia, 1 SK, and 8 town-sided people. So I don't know how many there are, but it's definitely easier to figure the odds under the condition of 3 mafia members, and that's definitely a possible scenario. I'd also think that if there were 2 mafia, that would just boost the town's chances in all scenarios, maybe also adding a little to the SK's odds if we don't lynch him. It's also significant that we won't know fur sure until the game is over.

Wait, what? Only 2 mafia? I thought from what others said previously and from the games that I have played and the games that I have read, that the most likely scenario was 3 mafia (and possibly even 4) but I never considered that there might be only 2. Is that common in a 12 player game?

If he lives until night, the mafia would want to NK him, because killing him is pretty important to them, but they're also not sure whether they can. Honestly, I think I'd prefer he didn't tell us; that information (which I note that you subtly asked for) would help only the mafia. In fact, if he does answer, he should probably lie. Or tell the truth but make it look like a lie. Or lie but make it look like he's telling the truth but pretending to lie, etc...

I agree with the part about not wanting acfan to say one way or the other whether he's NK immune or not, but I don't know why you're so sure that scum would want to NK him, or why they would even bother trying since acfan is really not of much use to the town. I.e., if he lives to the night, (a) if we have a town roleblocker, he may very well block acfan to prevent acfan from NKing a townie; (b) if there is a scum roleblocker, he may very well block acfan to prevent him from killing scum; (c) if either a or b (or both) occurs, there doesn't seem to be any reason for the scum to try to NK acfan as he is effectively neutered and they would probably be more likely to target a townie, wouldn't they?

I will be happy to be corrected but I'm just not seeing the advantages to keeping a claimed SK alive at present (although that may change depending on what Tovarish's replacement has to say if and when the replacement appears).

Regards,
Jazz

[ac1983fan]

First of all, if I'm alive and we choose to try and lynch mafia, the chances of us hitting mafia are changed from 3/9 to 3/8 for today. Secondly, if things are starting to look mafia sided, (ie we mislynch) I can attempt to kill a mafia member and hope that the pro-town roleblocker knows the numbers and that the mafia doesn't have a roleblocker.

That did not actually address my post or the specific concerns raised in it at all. Please, try again, and please address the specific points raised in the post to which you were directed. You seem to have (a) firstly, ignored it, and (b) secondly, tapdanced around it.

No, I was trying to respond to your points as best as I could. Your point was that my only value is to try and kill scum at night. While that is one of the ways keeping me alive helps, if we lynch a mafia today, a pro-town roleblocker (if there is one, still assuming here), would be smart to block me, since on that night, I would have motivations to hit town. But if we do not lynch mafia today and lynch a townie, then the pro-town roleblocker should not block me, because I would be going for mafia. I believe that your specific points addressed those issues, yes?

As an aside, what is with the "ie we mislynch" phrasing of yours?

I need to lynch mafia just as much as you do. Not lynching mafia today hurts me more than helps me.

And why you are now positing the existence of a town role blocker as though it is a given when there is no evidence that this is the case, and dismissing the possibility of a scum roleblocker with the wave of a hand when the latter is just as possible as the former?

I'm not dismissing it, but hoping there isn't a mafia roleblocker. Notice the word "hope". Not the words "I'm dismissing the possibility of a mafia roleblocker".

i just don't see acfan as sk, especially since he doesn't seem to know whether or not he is immune to nightkill.

Is there any pro-town reason for you to want acfan to reveal whether he is immune to nightkill?

i never asked him to reveal. i would rather he didn't, however, when he approached the subject in an earlier post it sounded as if he did not know. i.e. it didn't seem like he was bluffing or avoiding. i will look back for the quote when i have time, but it was something in particular that stood out to me.

The attitude of your posts seemed like you wanted me to. I didn't really think it was important, but I did state in one of my posts... I am night kill immune. And anyway, scum trying to kill me in the night would not help them as much as killing a townie, so there would be no real point in doing it anyway.

acfan: why would one think there might be a "pro town" roleblocker? possibilities are endless, but your statement seemed to exhibit actual knowledge and not just a possibility. your statement says you "hope that the pro town roleblocker knows the numbers", not "if there is a protown roleblocker, i hope he knows the numbers." get it. seems lilke a slip to me.

It just seems like it would be logical to me. That's what I would expect.

For right now, I am going to assume that I am paranoid because assuming that I am sane will have worse consequences than if we were to assume I am sane. At this point in the game, what do you guys think would be best, a lynch today or no lynch? Because we're getting down to it with 3 pro-towns gone. And to my memory, q21 never claimed to be a cop and did not get the chance to investigate, or at least tell us, so that kind of makes things difficult at the moment.

Soo you just made an out of left field cop claim. Why? And also. You should almost never no lynch.

[Porkens]

Zer0ph34r wrote:
For right now, I am going to assume that I am paranoid because assuming that I am sane will have worse consequences than if we were to assume I am sane. At this point in the game, what do you guys think would be best, a lynch today or no lynch? Because we're getting down to it with 3 pro-towns gone. And to my memory, q21 never claimed to be a cop and did not get the chance to investigate, or at least tell us, so that kind of makes things difficult at the moment.

Soo you just made an out of left field cop claim. Why? And also. You should almost never no lynch.

Oh god, IS that a cop claim?

[Sotty7]

hero: i don't know if i want to gamble. that's basically what you want us to do. also, we are all completely ignoring the fact that their may be a two player scum team and not three. i believe that would screw up the math for most of this.

When dealing with stuff like this you should

always

talk about the wost case scenario. I'm not willing to believe that there is a two man scum team at this point.

First of all, I'm NK immune, so the scum can't night kill me. Secondly, I have to try and fulfill my win condition, otherwise, what is the point of playing the game? I only claimed because the town and I share a common goal of getting rid of the mafia.

Okay, why are you telling us this? If you kept quiet and we didn't lynch you the scum would have wasted a night kill on you. I also don't like the timing considering the exchange what happened between Hero and Don in posts right before this one.

I don't

know

that there is one, but one would think there might be.

Why?

For right now, I am going to assume that I am paranoid because assuming that I am sane will have worse consequences than if we were to assume I am sane. At this point in the game, what do you guys think would be best, a lynch today or no lynch? Because we're getting down to it with 3 pro-towns gone. And to my memory, q21 never claimed to be a cop and did not get the chance to investigate, or at least tell us, so that kind of makes things difficult at the moment.

Okay stop and slow down.

What exactly are you trying to say here? q21 never claimed cop because he had no reason to, and yes he was killed before he could investigate. What is your point? I feel like I am missing half the conversation here.

I am not getting anything from your posts that makes me want to put my faith or the fate of the town into your hands, as the claimed serial killer that you are, sorry. I don't see any reason to trust you, and I don't see anything in your posts that leads me to believe that you will act in a manner that benefits us. I don't blame you for playing to your win condition, of course, but your win condition does not coincide with the town win condition, and I just don't see any reason to trust you. If we mislynch today and you kill a townie tonight, you will pretty much assure a town loss. I am not feeling inclined to take that risk.

Very much this.

Wait, what? Only 2 mafia? I thought from what others said previously and from the games that I have played and the games that I have read, that the most likely scenario was 3 mafia (and possibly even 4) but I never considered that there might be only 2. Is that common in a 12 player game?

I have never played in a 12 player game that had a scum team of 2 and a SK. That said it's not impossible (see Porkens example), still I'd rather not base our chances off something that might be completely off math wise. A three man team is more common.

[Herodotus]

And anyway, scum trying to kill me in the night would not help them as much as killing a townie, so there would be no real point in doing it anyway.

Your point about the mafia is not true at all. They want you dead much more than the town does, especially when they're ahead. You are a swingy, anti-mafia, killing role. In fact, they'd really like to get you lynched today, because you'd logically be trying to target them until two mafia have died.

It looks like EA is out of the game, which means his lurking was probably unintentional.

unvote

i never asked him to reveal. i would rather he didn't, however, when he approached the subject in an earlier post it sounded as if he did not know. i.e. it didn't seem like he was bluffing or avoiding. i will look back for the quote when i have time, but it was something in particular that stood out to me.

I'm not going to give you the benefit of the doubt, but maybe you can find whatever it is you are referring to. I've reviewed him and not found it. You said that you doubt his claim because he hasn't told us whether he's NK-immune. That implies he needs to state it one way or another to convince you to believe him.

porkens: in mini 730 i believe you only had one partner, correct?

It would have taken about 30 seconds to look this up, even if you hadn't been in the game. Very strange that you chose instead to ask Porkens, who may have had to look it up himself if he didn't remember the number of that game.

acfan: why would one think there might be a "pro town" roleblocker? possibilities are endless, but your statement seemed to exhibit actual knowledge and not just a possibility. your statement says you "hope that the pro town roleblocker knows the numbers", not "if there is a protown roleblocker, i hope he knows the numbers." get it. seems lilke a slip to me.

I don't see how it's a slip. This is a normal game, so no scum would start with information about town power roles. There are very, very few ways he could have learned of the existence of such a role. But he's been guessing that there's a RB/Jailer since post 507.

And besides, acfan doesn't have much left to slip. I'd imagine that claiming a scum role must be pretty liberating.

@Zero: So what you're saying is that you're a cop, but you're not sure of your sanity? If that's your claim, you should probably tell us your N1 results. And I would not worry about the rest of us assuming that you're sane.

[ac1983fan]

First of all, I'm NK immune, so the scum can't night kill me. Secondly, I have to try and fulfill my win condition, otherwise, what is the point of playing the game? I only claimed because the town and I share a common goal of getting rid of the mafia.

Okay, why are you telling us this? If you kept quiet and we didn't lynch you the scum would have wasted a night kill on you. I also don't like the timing considering the exchange what happened between Hero and Don in posts right before this one.

Because it was being questioned whether or not I was. And because I don't think scum would waste a night kill on me anyway.

I don't

know

that there is one, but one would think there might be.

Why?

Because there's an sk and a scumteam. Because roleblockers are fairly common in normal games anyway.

And anyway, scum trying to kill me in the night would not help them as much as killing a townie, so there would be no real point in doing it anyway.

Your point about the mafia is not true at all. They want you dead much more than the town does, especially when they're ahead. You are a swingy, anti-mafia, killing role. In fact, they'd really like to get you lynched today, because you'd logically be trying to target them until two mafia have died.

But the townsfolk are a larger threat to the mafia then me, since I'm a one-person scum role who will likely get lynched at some point during this game. If they are smart, they would nightkill townies, and, like you said, lynch me.

acfan: why would one think there might be a "pro town" roleblocker? possibilities are endless, but your statement seemed to exhibit actual knowledge and not just a possibility. your statement says you "hope that the pro town roleblocker knows the numbers", not "if there is a protown roleblocker, i hope he knows the numbers." get it. seems lilke a slip to me.

I don't see how it's a slip. This is a normal game, so no scum would start with information about town power roles. There are very, very few ways he could have learned of the existence of such a role. But he's been guessing that there's a RB/Jailer since post 507.

And besides, acfan doesn't have much left to slip. I'd imagine that claiming a scum role must be pretty liberating.

Meh, I guess... I haven't lied at all since I claimed SK, if that's what you mean...

[Herodotus]

The question town-sided people need to ask themselves about the acfan lynch is, do you feel ready for what is probably three days worth of LYLO? Personally, I see that as much more risky than trusting him to act in his own best interests (I hope it's obvious why acfan as SK doesn't want three townies to die by tomorrow morning.) But if you're certain you know who at least some of the mafia are, then maybe LYLO is safer.
As I think I've made clear, my threshold is for one of the mafia to claim scum. That would lead to a mafia-favored, but still balanced, endgame. And it's in their best interests to make that claim, as it will lead to an acfan lynch today, which is important to them.
Otherwise, I am comfortable assuming that acfan is competent enough not to hand the game to the mafia.

[Porkens]

You've put it very clearly Herod, I applaud you.

I certainly am not looking forward to 3 days of Lylo.

I guess our difference of opinion lies in the fact that I don't trust AC not to hand it to the maf.