Open 130 - Vengeful Mafia (Over!) before 762

[Killah Nine]

confirm mah niggaz

[Killah Nine]

Original Roll String: 1d5

1 5-Sided Dice: (4) = 4

[Killah Nine]

vote: zwet

mah dice alwayz be landin on scum

[Killah Nine]

Can we fast-forward over the Empking-policy-lynch-debate?

wut iz dis about yo?

[Killah Nine]

So... I'm at L-1 with no good reason? [/b]Vote: TDC[/b] HOO~

y u votin tdc if u makin a fuss 'bout da L-1 yo? tdc wuznt even 1 of da vota'z

L-1 is only 2 votes. I don't think either Emp or K9 can be blamed. Emp was your first, K9 was evidently random.
Perhaps it would be a good idea for someone to unvote, just in case.

da only way zwet cud be lynch'd rite now iz if sum1 unvoted & voted him & if sum1 did dat rite now at dis stage of da game, dey'd be obvscum yo. y do u think itz a good idea to unvote?

[Killah Nine]

i say no to mos plan yo becuz of dis post:

Hi guys.

Here are mafia's win odds given random play (as given already on the wiki page). The 33s and 67s are rounded, as you might expect.

(20% chance of godfather lynch D1 * 0% chance of mafia win ) +
(20% chance of goon lynch D1 * 75% chance to survive final four * 67% chance to survive final three) +
(60% chance of townie lynch D1 *
(50% chance of vig kill targeting a townie +
(50% chance of vig kill targeting mafia * 67% chance to survive final three)) )

= 60%.

Now instead we will arbitrarily select one player, MoS, as an arbitrary pair-maker. MoS of course is either GF, goon, or town, so we must take into consideration what happens in each of these situations:

20% MoS is GF * [
(25% chance of goon lynch D1 * 75% chance to survive final four * 67% chance to survive final three) +
(75% chance of townie lynch D1 *
(67% chance of vig kill targeting a townie +
(33% chance of vig kill targeting mafia * 67% chance to survive final three)) )
] +
20% MoS is goon * [
(25% chance of godfather lynch D1 * 0% chance of mafia win in this case ) +
(0% chance of goon lynch D1 ) +
(75% chance of townie lynch D1 *
(67% chance of vig kill targeting a townie +
(33% chance of vig kill targeting mafia * 67% chance to survive final three)) )
] +
60% MoS is town * [
(25% chance of godfather lynch D1 * 0% chance of mafia win in this case) +
(25% chance of goon lynch D1 * 75% chance to survive final four * 67% chance to survive final three) +
(50% chance of townie lynch D1 *
(33% chance of vig kill targeting a townie +
(67% chance of vig kill targeting mafia * 67% chance to survive final three)) )
]

= 60%.

So, mathematically it doesn't help to use pairs strategy.

I can't argue with armlx beyond that, because he never showed his work. Presumably one would try to argue that the pairs need to be worked into the math, and that it isn't sufficient to note the probabilities of the first lynch's partner's alignment. But I've never heard a good reason why it should make any difference, whether you determine the random moves in advance of them happening, or at the time when the moves are made.

Breaking it down a little:
If MoS is the godfather, mafia will win 79.1667% of the time.
If MoS is the goon, they'll win 66.667% of the time.
If MoS is town, mafia will win 51.333% of the time (and town and MoS, 48.667%).
When there is no pairmaker, a random player will win 48% of the time.
When there is, MoS will win 58.3667% of the time.

Because any given player has the ability to be MoS, if this decision is made randomly and not simply seized by someone unilaterally deciding to be the pairmaker, there's mathematically no reason to support or oppose the use of the pairs strategy.

If a random player (but not you) were to unilaterally choose to be the pairmaker, and you are a townie, I would oppose this move, because it increases scum's win odds slightly from 60% to 62.153%.

Of course, there could be other less tangible benefits to pairs strategy (or "vengekill in a cycle" strategy, etc etc) which aid the town but can't be reflected in the math.

fos: empking

[Killah Nine]

da only way zwet cud be lynch'd rite now iz if sum1 unvoted & voted him & if sum1 did dat rite now at dis stage of da game, dey'd be obvscum yo. y do u think itz a good idea to unvote?

I'm saying we should be on the safe side. Of course if the scum hammered now it'd be obvious - but it'd give them a chance to win and still leave the other scum hidden, since I don't think it's been long enough to reveal any connections.

tru

unvote

[Killah Nine]

I LOVE killa's posting style.

thx yo

wut bout dis:

So... I'm at L-1 with no good reason? [/b]Vote: TDC[/b] HOO~

y u votin tdc if u makin a fuss 'bout da L-1 yo? tdc wuznt even 1 of da vota'z

[Killah Nine]

TDC was a random vote, Killa.

i cud buy that

da world iz filled wit pimps and hoes
lets just talk about those i kno

im in a singin mood yo lol

[Killah Nine]

Three players hat me and want me lynched everygame I'm in.

i've nevah play'd in a game wit u b4 dawg... wich 3 playaz alwayz want u lynch'd?

i am becuming suspicious of tdc yo
he still haznt rly givin an opinion on ne1 & haz only done theery talk. dat seems scummy to me yo

[Killah Nine]

i am becuming suspicious of tdc yo
he still haznt rly givin an opinion on ne1 & haz only done theery talk. dat seems scummy to me yo

Who has given an opinion on anyone?

dat prolly came out wrong

i mean peeps seem to be questinin each otha to try to figure each otha out n u keep askin q's about da mos plan

havin sed that i reread the thred and zwet is guilty of dis too so itz not jus u

[Killah Nine]

i think i undahstand wut zwet is talking bout yo

i do find it weird that molestargazer was defendin zwet 4 a bit here:

Mole; Do you honestly think that waiting forever to get a read on what town wants and then agreeing with the town isn't a scum tell?

I certainly see where you're coming from. However, I can't shake the feeling that

in this case

of MoS, it's fairly irrelevant, since even if he had disagreed, it wouldn't have been a scumtell in my eyes.

but then wehn empking ask'd him anotha question he flipp'd his opinion about da whole issue n said that zwet's response wud be interestin here:

It might.
I suppose he'd better post and explain. It might be interesting.

y's mole changin his opinion bout da whole thing rite away yo?

[Killah Nine]

mod

n evry1 else: im not gon have any internet ovah da weekend yo

ah will be back late monday night n will post @ dat time

[Killah Nine]

im back yo

readin now

[Killah Nine]

lol i dont kno how i fell asleep durin mah read but i did

aight so i see zwet has the most votez at dis time

empking wuts a town zwet like? ive read sum of his games n he seems to be playin da exact same way he alwayz playz

i dont trust dis bandwagon on zwet... im gettin a bad vibe from molestargazer yo... his vote on zwet look'd force'd to me

[Killah Nine]

Zwet - Is it really that difficult to answer the question that you have to delay it for SO long?
Answer it, and I'll unvote if it's reasonable, it's the only reason I'm voting right now.

lol this be like tellin a murderah that even tho he kill'd sum1 if he givs good reason why he did it he dont have to go to jail or sumthin yo

feels lik coachin to me n i think da only way u could coach sum1 in a game of mafia is if u kno a persons role yo (by bein scum)

i realy have been gettin bad vibes from mole so im gonna go 'head n

vote: molestargazer

(L-1 yo)

[Killah Nine]

lol this be like tellin a murderah that even tho he kill'd sum1 if he givs good reason why he did it he dont have to go to jail or sumthin yo

The vote was for pressure, not because I necessarily think he's scum.
I just want him to answer the question.

Lynch me if you like, but I assure you you'll end up with a dead townie, and just my shot to decide if we'll reach D2. And to be quite frank, I couldn't say decisively who I think is scum right now.

but if u keep votin the same person 4 pressure (u been votin him to answer this question for a wile now) and ur vote still isnt makin the person do what u want him to do wudn't that make u think that maybe that person isnt answerin for a reason? when do u move past the point that a vote is still bein used just for pressure?

[Killah Nine]

wudn't that make u think that maybe that person isnt answerin for a reason?

Like.. what?

since this game only has vigz n scum then maybe becuz that person iz scum

[Killah Nine]

wudn't that make u think that maybe that person isnt answerin for a reason?

Like.. what?

since this game only has vigz n scum then maybe becuz that person iz scum

In which case mole voting him would be a good thing?

yea obv

my point was mole keeps sayin "just answa da question n i'll unvote u!!!" almost lik he'z beggin him to do it so he cud unvote him alredy

i cant see why a townee wud keep at that for so long

i think a townee wud just think da person not answerin da question iz scum n wud be pushin his lynch

to keep pushin for an answer seems like coachin and i think the only way a playa could coach some1 is if the playa kno the persons role (town or scum)

so mole looks lik scum to me

[Killah Nine]

Or maybe, you know, we're only on page 5.

unvote

feel free to self-hammer.

so u kno hez town?

[Killah Nine]

woah wait wut?!?!?! lemme read dis... i think we got our 1st scum yo

[Killah Nine]

I'm hammering soon, as everyone else is to scared of vengeful kills to do it.

vengeful killz only happen if da person hammah'd iz town

do u kno mole to be town yo?

[Killah Nine]

Could you first explain how "I know" is town?
I don't get it.

zwet said he'z gonna hammah mole becuz evry1 is too afraid of vengeful kills to do it

u sed "feel free to self-hammer"

dat made me think u knew zwet wuz town who has a vengeful kill

[Killah Nine]

yea but he could vig sum1 else

[Killah Nine]

aight here'z da deal yo

i keep readin ovah that zwet line n thinkin that zwet sumhow knos that mole iz town yo

i mean check it... if zwet want'd to hammah mole then y wud he say that he'z gonna do it becuz evry1 is afraid of da vengeful kill rite? wudn't he just say itz becuz he thinks mole iz scum? and scum dont hav vengeful killz base'd on da role pm'z n shit

i think zwet iz mafia yo n if zwet iz mafia i think mole iz prob town

im gonna hammah

unvote vote: zwet

[Killah Nine]

w00t!

aight yo i need to reread to see hoo i think iz zwet's buddy yo

rite now im thinkin mole is prob town so it looks lyk it'z between emp & tdc yo

[Killah Nine]

Do you often lynch people this quickly on small things like that?

Or did you, well, know he was scum?

this is mah 1st game as town in a game with lynchin so i cant rly answa dat question

da only otha time i wuz town wuz a worse idea mafia game wher we wud jus vig each otha 4 lil to no reason... so i guess yea i wud lynch 4 small things but imo, that wuznt a small thing

lik i sed be4 it look'd lik a major slip to me

[Killah Nine]

We have two days now, right?

Unvote

Vote; TDC

I don't think Mole was bussing, I'm town, K9 probably wouldn't have been "scared" denough to drop a hammer on his scum buddy.

how do we hav 2 days yo?

[Killah Nine]

oh... i thought he ment like a deadline lol

eitha way i dont lik how quikly he votes for tdc and then says "k9 wouldnt be scared to drop the hammer on his buddy"

it looks lik he'z settin evrythin up 4 tomorow or sumthin

[Killah Nine]

This might be WIFOM, but what would Emp-scum gain by declaring mole and k9 town?
Even if he got me lynched, how would he survive another day?

wut?

1) emp didnt even call me town tho yo

he sed ur scum, vote'd u, then sed 'k9 wudnt be afraid to hammah his buddy if scum'

2) even if he did call me town he'd be playin da rite strategy yo

callin 2 ppl town wen it'z known dat 1 scum iz left iz da perfect way to play as scum yo

da next day he just look'z surprized n shit n votez me or sumthin


i stil need to reread u n emp yo.. i shud be able to do dat 2morow

[Killah Nine]

also tdc if u dont think emp iz scum who do u think iz? if u think itz me lyk ur 1st post seem'd to make it seem then y rn't u votin me?

[Killah Nine]

k i read thru da thred

i dont think empking is scum yo
i didnt like da way he set up da day as 'we hav 2 days, let's lynch tdc, n then letz lynch k9' but i think his play durin day 1 lookz less scummy than tdc's

i think tdc iz the last scum

lookin back at tdc's posts i noticed dat he start'd the game wit a random vote on molestargazer & pretty much left it ther 4 a lot of da game even wen things got serious

he mite hav jus found mole to be da most suspicious all day n shit but now dat we kno that zwet wuz scum it lookz differently to me yo

it lookz lik he wuz tryin to protect his weak scum buddy

i also rly didnt lyk dis post lookin back on it now:

He tries to be less blatant in his unhelpfulness.

That was my first game on the site, dumbfuck. Playstyles change.

I can't believe I have to warn someone over this.

Please don't insult other people.

Look at your join date.

It's less than half a year.
What's your point? That playstyles can only change over real time and not over amount of games played?

I see the difference in the game you've pointed to, but towards the end of it, it reads just like this one. I assume this is because by then he already was on his many-games-schedule.

By the way, I've found this recently finished game of him as scum (the first one, I guess): http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... t=#1588513

Is it what you're seeing here?

wudn't that make u think that maybe that person isnt answerin for a reason?

Like.. what?

he defends zwet a bit, then links to a complet'd game wher zwet wuz scum & doesnt even take a position on zwet

he insted ask'd for empking's opinion insted

dat seems weird to me yo... y would u point out a complete'd game where a person wuz scum & then not take a position on da person?

im gonna

vote: tdc

diescumdie

[Killah Nine]

o and mole if u look at emp's post history u can see dat he wuznt postin anywere on site durin dat time dat he wuz away from here

also i didnt notice be4 but in his sig he had sumthin dat sed "gone until monday"

letz lynch tdc-scum & call it a game yo

i want a perfect town win and shit

[Killah Nine]

wow i didnt expect dat quik of a hammah yo

id lik to think mole iz still town 4 da thing i thought wuz a slip from zwet but dat hammah worries me a bit yo

i

did

want mole to switch ovah since i thought tdc wuz scum just i didnt expect it to be dat quik esp if he wuz dead set on an emp-scum

imma reread emp & then see how much weight i shud put in2 dat "slip" still

[Killah Nine]

wow i didnt expect dat quik of a hammah yo

id lik to think mole iz still town 4 da thing i thought wuz a slip from zwet but dat hammah worries me a bit yo

i

did

want mole to switch ovah since i thought tdc wuz scum just i didnt expect it to be dat quik esp if he wuz dead set on an emp-scum

Trust me, I wasn't dead-set on Emp-scum. I was divided between the two, I was happy to lynch either. I didn't particularly mind which.

Of course, no voting yet.

tru... i just reread ur post & u did say that u rely dont kno which of the 2 it cud be

[Killah Nine]

readin thru da thred i got a question bout dis:

Molest: You do know that I knew your continued attacks were wrong due to him answering the question and you still going about it meaning that if I posted I would've derailed the known-scum wagon making not posting the pro-town action meaning it can't be taken as evidence to scumminess.

emp if u knew molestargazer;s attacks were wrong y did u let him keep makin dem? y didnt u botha to question mole about y he mite hav kept pushin da same point wen zwet alredy responded to that?

[Killah Nine]

readin thru da thred i got a question bout dis:

Molest: You do know that I knew your continued attacks were wrong due to him answering the question and you still going about it meaning that if I posted I would've derailed the known-scum wagon making not posting the pro-town action meaning it can't be taken as evidence to scumminess.

emp if u knew molestargazer;s attacks were wrong y did u let him keep makin dem? y didnt u botha to question mole about y he mite hav kept pushin da same point wen zwet alredy responded to that?

I thought Zwet was scum.

yea but even if u think sum1 is scum i'd think that if u saw sum1 makin a bad attack against them u mite question them about it to see y they are doin it 'specially wen bussin' in vengeful games is used in a lot of them yo

and we didnt kno zwet wuz scum until he wuz lynch'd & da mod sed he wuz scum so wut ur sayin here iz mostly wifom

[Killah Nine]

u just made dis ez yo

molestargazer made a post 2day in anotha game n didnt hammah me so u must be da last scum yo

vote: empking

molestargazah, empking wuz settin dis up since yestahday yo wen he sed "1st we lynch tdc then we lynch k9"

he new he need'd 2 mislynch's to win

[Killah Nine]

i wuzn't lyin yo!!!!!!!!!

We have two days now, right?

Unvote

Vote; TDC

I don't think Mole was bussing, I'm town, K9 probably wouldn't have been "scared" denough to drop a hammer on his scum buddy.

am i rite or am i rite? u didnt say it in those exact wordz dat i wrote but u basicly did say it yo

[Killah Nine]

wait how iz that a reason for me being town? he sed "k9 would not have been scared enough to drop a hammer on his buddy"

if he sed "k9

would

have been too scared to drop a hammer on his buddy" wudnt

that

mean he wuz tryin to find reason for me to be town? or am i readin that wrong?

[Killah Nine]

K9 - I believe he was saying

K9 can't be scum because he wouldn't have hammered his own scum buddy if he was

.

o i read it difrently

thats a dumb reason to call sum1 town if u ask me lol

this is vengeful mafia... the godfatha can easily bus his buddy durin day 1 and still win da game

im not sayin i did that becuz i kno im town but im shock'd that empking wuz usin dat as a reason to call me town yestahday

[Killah Nine]

K9 - I believe he was saying

K9 can't be scum because he wouldn't have hammered his own scum buddy if he was

.

o i read it difrently

thats a dumb reason to call sum1 town if u ask me lol

this is vengeful mafia... the godfatha can easily bus his buddy durin day 1 and still win da game

im not sayin i did that becuz i kno im town but im shock'd that empking wuz usin dat as a reason to call me town yestahday

Yeah, I proubably shouldn't have.

well u prolly had a case of stoofah's syndrome since ur scum lol

[Killah Nine]

empking wuz scum

we won yo!

[Killah Nine]

Mole: Were you the scum or is K9 just being mean?

wait u were town?

[Killah Nine]

wow

gg mole

[Killah Nine]

Lynch

Endgame Scene

"game ovah yo."

After K9 and molest had broke Empking's neck, a gun was pulled out and the trigger almost acted by itself. Good thing he had kept his only bullet.

Empking; Vegneful Townie, lynched Day 3
molestargazer; Vegneful Townie, endgamed

killah Nine; Mafia Godfather, survived

Well done zwet. Well done K9. Victory is yours!

or dat lol

mah bad yall

i dont lyk lyin n stuff but dis wuz fun

gg town gg zwet

[Killah Nine]

http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/eJL4p73m2a4f

dis wuz da quiktopic yo

i dont get y zwet didnt use it

he got me p'ed off so i had to hammah him fo not talkin to me n shit

we cud hav daytalk'd

[Killah Nine]

hp, mole; thx yo

hp nice moddin

dis wuz ur 1st time? i lik'd how u let da scum daytalk

[Killah Nine]

And on this note, I should probably retire this account. I'm getting tired of talking like an idiot all the time haha.

[Killah Nine]

And on this note, I should probably retire this account. I'm getting tired of talking like an idiot all the time haha.

Before it goes - who are you?

I can't say.

I never knew you outside of this game, so I'm probably not someone you know.