Mini 737 - Hack Poetry Mafia (Game Over)

[don_johnson]

masslcaim forces scum's hand. if it is too early that's fine, but if it came up for a vote i would support. two doc's is an odd set up.

what if there are 2 docs, 1 watcher, a serial killer and a 2 man mafia team. AND the sk just happened to pick Spoilum....

That's a totally strange thing to say.

QFT ^^

[springlullaby]

Rhyme scheme for my PM is AABB. The first couplet matches with what you said, the second couple ends on words rhyming with "tie" or "fly". Specifically, the second line of the second couple is another word for 'the end of a persons life'.

I couldn't tell you the meter, though, my English poetry was never very strong :/

Does this match up?


Also, I support lynching DO or Don Jonson. Why massclaim so early?

So you believe me to be doc now? And why do you want to lynch Don?

On the role PM, yes it checks out. It lends you a little credit since you responded quick enough, but the mod was active today and still could have given it to you.

BUT, I'm checking your game history, and you actually played in Bus Stop mafia which had two docs. And you modded a fairly complicated game yourself, so I'm having a hard time buying your candour about the possibility of two doc thing.

---

Now the possibilities I see in no particular order:

1. Jebus and I are both functionning doc, and there are other setup screws ahead.

2. Jebus and I are both doc with differing sanities.
- here be speculations on possible doc sanities (blank, random, quack...) and what they imply.

3. Jebus is scum, gambitting on my being rival scum. Because she thought she picked up on a cop breadcrumb and because she disbelieved my game could be town (the later would be way cool and make my day).

Right now I'm unpronounced, and I'd like to see more input from others.

[Jebus]

I wasn't really involved in Bus Stop, and as a mod I'd never put in more than one doctor. I actually hate the role myself, almost more than the vanilla townie. Though that's all subjective.

I'm going to guess that it's number two. And either way, I believe you for now, so

unvote, Vote: DO

[springlullaby]

Why do you believe me?

[Jebus]

The first rhyme you gave matched out perfectly with my PM, and you say mine checks out with yours.

I'm not really sure why I'd go against it. I've found you generally pro-town till now :/

[sekinj]

what if there are 2 docs, 1 watcher, a serial killer and a 2 man mafia team. AND the sk just happened to pick Spoilum....

why is this strange?

I think budja accidentally slipped when he said singular scumbuddy. that means that either 1) he really had one scumbuddy OR 2) two scumbuddies, one active and one completely inactive during day one. I believe option 1.

AND

If we really have two docs (plus a watcher), then the mafia has to be balanced out in some other way, hence the sk.

HOWEVER

we had no kill(s) last night. The remaining mafia would obv go after Spring for the night kill, but jebus said he protected her. Spring however, says she protected Spoilum, so, if ther is a second scum group they would have had to have targeted spoilum as well for all those pieces to fit together.

[RedCoyote]

Now we're getting into confusion territory.

unvote

RC

, is your suspicion of Goat mostly linked to vibes? His inactivity in general make his lurking a null tell to me. Do you see him as having one of the strongest ties to Budja?

His inactivity as an effect of the NK may be contrasted sharply with his D1 activity. However, due to the fact that he hasn't been posting anywhere else for the past 3 days means that I'm starting to get more of an impression that Goat's lurking in genuine.

What made this idea go off in my head is the fact that spring protected Spolium. If someone had asked me who would be the first person to target Spolium last night I would've said Goat immediately. That and the fact that I could read his D1 in isolation and point out many attempts Goat made at moving the conversation from Budja to me and spring.

---

Jebus' protection claim doesn't add up though. I heavily doubt Spring would be scum target number 1. In fact, if his claim is correct, why would he protect someone who counterclaimed a role he KNOWS is false. This makes no sense.

The only sense I can make of it is that Jebus thought the scum would for sure try to take out spring, so he decided to not claim and protect whatever Doctor survived. This significantly up his chances of a save. This also means that Jebus never really thought that spring was scum at any point, which I can tell you just hits all sorts of red flags with me.

---

is there a way to use my ability to confirm one or both of our alleged two doctors?

Yes, it would involve having both doctors and you visit the same person.

Of course, this would leave either Doctor claim vulnerable to a NK.

---

I predict three different possibilities,

A) Jebus is Doctor; spring is Doctor.

• 1) Jebus' protection of spring makes sense (and, thus, his unwillingness to claim Doctor during D1).
  2) The no kill last night makes more sense (why spring is still alive).
  3) Both spring and Jebus consider this option possible.

B) Jebus is Doctor; spring is scum,

• 1) Budja admitted to being scum saying this,

  Good luck to my scumbuddy. At least I got you the Doc .

  perhaps Budja wouldn't have given up so quickly
  except for the fact
  that his scumbuddy cc'd him? Perhaps he would've tried harder to explain why he was the Doctor and spring wasn't?
  2) spring not having a gaugable opinion throughout most of D2 while she attempts to choose who she would give her "protection" to.
  3) Jebus' consistent pressure of spring's identity and for her to state who she protected.

C) Jebus is scum; spring is Doctor,

• 1) Jebus sees a brilliant opportunity in claiming that he protected spring (as it makes more sense that the scum would try to kill spring than anyone else).
  2) In order to cast a completely artifical line of attack on DO for a stance that may or may not have been innocuous.
  3) Jebus' queer willingness to completely accept spring as another Doctor or as a townie gambit.

Quotes to take note of

:

Hmm. Either I succeeded in my protect. Either there wthe as no kill/ delayed kill/ some other kind of screw.

Option 3: you are scum, there is no doctor and you orchestrated the doc claim/counter claim and the subsequent no kill to throw people off the scent.

Budja's "good luck scumbuddy" post stands out for it's "at least I got you the Doc" comment. In fact,

the brief exchange between him and Spring has the faintest hint of a last-minute distancing

attempt.

There's still a chance that the scum just didn't send in a nightkill, but with the extended night phase due to Tony's absence, i think it's unlikely that the scum couldn't get the choice in time.

It's not that difficult for me to entertain the possibility that they said to each other "Hey, let's try this Doc gambit. If the real Doc shows up, we're screwed, but let's just go for it." If I was scum, I would probably agree to do it (although I doubt I'd think of it myself.) GoatRevolt says that it's a highly complicated gambit, but to me it seems really really simple. Very risky, yes, but complicated, not at all.

I say we just bump off Spring and get some confirmation one way or the other.

We (the town) are ahead in the count right now. We have some room to maneuver.

I am still curious who Spring will claim to have protected.

Budja: Hey, I've got this great idea. I'm going to act really scummy, and you're going to lurk hard.
Spring: I like where your head is at. But what would we stand to gain from doing this.
Budja: Ah yes, that is where my diabolical plot comes to fruition. The town, seeing me act scummy, will attack me for acting scummy.
Spring: Your skills at logical deduction are truly staggering. When this comes to pass, what then?
Budja: That is the great part. Then I will claim to be the doctor.
Spring: But if you claim to be the doctor, it might cause them to unvote you. That seems unproductive.
Budja: Not if you counterclaim me!
Spring: Wow! Good thinking.
Budja: Yes, don't you see. You'll throw me, a mafia roleblocker, away for small personal gain, and there is even a chance a real townie doc counterclaims us both, effectively screwing us over for the entire game.
Spring: High risk, low reward. The town will never expect it. Let's do this.
Scum3: Excellent suggestions all around.

May I also propose I attempt to bus Spring day 2? If Spring looks town for counterclaiming scum in a doctor claim, then I will look extra town for busing such a town-looking player.

I will skate unscathed to victory!

As for the Spring as scum, making a No Kill - I can see how this would work, but

I'm content leaving Spring around for now, I think what we've got on Spring is very inconclusive

.

My view on the Spring as the doc: it could be many things.

1> Spring is the doc, and scum did a no-kill to make it look suspicious. I think this is probably not the way this would have gone. Scum forfeit one kill to make one person who is a town role that is slightly scummier than normal have the chance of possibly being mislynched.

2> Spring is scum, and scum did a no-kill to help strengthen Spring's claim. Again, I don't see why this would be a good idea, they forfeit a kill to possibly save the scumbuddy from a lynch. Again, possible is not good odds for them, and wasting the kill only to have a scumbuddy (possibly) lynched, or at least have heavy suspicion, doesn't make too much sense.

3> Spring is the doc, and successfully protected the kill. This makes sense because Spring is still ripe for a mislynch, possibly, and scum would have still gotten a kill, in addition to the possible mislynch.

4>

Spring is neither the doc or scum, and was protected by the real doc. I find this one unlikely, but it could also explain it. Why wouldn't scum get rid of a doctor if they had the chance?

5> Spring is neither the doc or scum, and scum no-killed. Same as option 1, pretty much.

6> Spring is neither the doc or scum, and the real doc made a successful kill. Odd enough :\

I'm thinking it's number three, though

I can see how one and four would work out

.

unvote, Vote: Spring

Major ping here, you were so damn intent on argueing with sekinj that you didn't even make a single comment on why I thought your claim was bull. After all, you'd been so eagerly asking it.

(all emphasis is added).

Everyone please reread all of these posts in the context of Jebus' claim.

[sekinj]

Please disregard Post 606. it was meant for another game.

mod: you can delete both this post and that post if you see fit. thank you!

[Spolium]

Hi, still here, still reading things over. Sorry about the wait, I should get a post out this evening or thereabouts.

[Goatrevolt]

I believe your claim, Don. Your post sounds pretty sincere about your confusion regarding the results. Does anybody know if scum get a watcher sometimes? I don't think they'd have another power role considering that they had a role blocker.

Scum can have watchers. However, I agree that I think Don's claim sounded sincere. Scum generally are not interested in claiming unless they need to, and his claim reads to me of townie annoyance and desire to put an end to the wagon on him.

I wouldn't put too much stock in the scum can only have 1 power role thing, however. That all depends on the overall setup, which we don't really know much about yet.

------

And, I have to leave now. Rest of my catching up to proceed later.

[Lynx The Antithesis]

I'm still skeptical of the town docs idea. But I'm torn because I don't see any reason for either of them to fake claim as scum. Goat's satire of a possible Spring scum counter keeps popping in my head about the absurdity of that situation. And Jebus's push against Spring's claim matches up with his own doctor claim. If we have two docs , then the town is pretty powerful. Along with the watcher I the town's got some pretty big firepower. Keeping the possibility of two docs in mind, couldn't they cross protect each other? Thus making them both impervious to nightkill. Plus, if we had a watcher he could keep tabs over the docs and see if anyone targets them. Though, of course, this is all under the conditions that all these claims are legitimate.

The fact that Jebus protected Spring also adds up well. It makes sense because I definitely think scum would've targeted Spring.

[RedCoyote]

What really sticks out to me is how easily Jebus accepts spring's claim as Doctor while thinking she is still townie... and vice versa really. All because their poem PMs are similar? I would imagine everyone got a poetic role PM.

Jebus, when spring cc'd Budja's claim, what was the first thing you thought? Did you really think that she was a townie trying to protect the "real" doctor? If you thought she was scum, you didn't think so for very long on account of the protection, so sometime between when she claimed and when the day ended you considered her to be town. Just, walk me through your way of thinking, explain to me as best you can why you decided to save spring.

---

Keeping the possibility of two docs in mind, couldn't they cross protect each other? Thus making them both impervious to nightkill. Plus, if we had a watcher he could keep tabs over the docs and see if anyone targets them.

Theoretically we could do some sort of protection daisy chain of all of them, spring protects Jebus, Jebus protects don, and don watches spring.

We would be sacrificing don's investigative use for more of a protective one, but that should keep all of them alive if they're all being truthful.

[Goatrevolt]

Unvote

I think Jebus is town here. I'm dubious of the double doc, but for Jebus to be scum, that means he threw away a NK and threw away himself in a 1-1 trade for Spring in order to set up his doc claim today. There's no way he does this when the simpler and more effective alternative would be to simply kill Spring. I'd be surprised if he's scum.

SL could possible be scum. Looking back through her interaction with Budja in regards to the claim, I could see that as plausible. She hesitated to vote for Budja prior to me pressuring her to lay down a vote, and then Budja immediately gave up without any fight after the counterclaim. I still think the abrupt counterclaim is a point in her favor, though. It makes more sense for scum running a gambit to hesitate and wait for a legit counter before faking one.

Spring: Why did you target Spolium last night?

RC: My lurking is not alignment relevant. I simply have not had time for mafia as of late. You can see my post rate has decreased everywhere on the site, and on other sites where I play mafia as well. As for the pushing Spring/you over Budja argument, I can kind of see how you would arrive at that, but it's really not true. I argued with you because you were attacking my pressure on Spring. I was not the one instigating that, I was merely responding to you. I pressured Spring on one (two, if you want to count the reread v. compile notes as you go) single point that ended up spreading to many posts. I spent most of my time trying to defend my single point of pressure on Spring than I did actually pressuring her. I attacked Budja on far more points than that throughout the thread.

As for the "if someone killed Spolium, it was me" argument, that's pretty weak, considering we don't know if Spolium was the target of a night kill definitively, and I was not his top target at all yesterday. If you're looking for the most likely to kill Spolium based on the criteria "Who Spolium was on to", why would you pick me over Ice or yourself?

-------------------

One possibility that hasn't been brought up is a mafia doctor. I've seen the role before, and it's possible one of the two docs is a mafia doc. That could explain Spring's quick counterclaim, if she is a mafia doc and thought she was the only doc. I'm still not sure why she would even bother to counter there, though.

Looking strictly at the lack of a kill, there are 3 options, really:

1. SL was the target. This would mean she is most likely town, and would also suggest Jebus is town, as he would have little motivation to not just kill her there.

2. Spolium was the target. This would mean SL is town. Doesn't affect Jebus' alignment.

3. The scum no killed to validate a doc claim.

----------

If both docs are sane and town, they can protect chain each other for the rest of the game for the win, barring external circumstances. Budja being a dead RB means one such external is out of the picture. Somehow I doubt we're looking at two sane town docs, though. Either one is scum or one is not sane. If one is scum, my money is on SL. If one is not sane, I have no idea.

I don't think mass claim is a terrible idea, but I'd rather hold off another day, yet.

I'm hoping to have time to get a reread on at least day 2, possibly the entire game, today or tomorrow. With all the info in the thread, I think we should be able to fairly accurately narrow down suspects and decide on a good lynch.

[fhqwhgads]

@fhq - why wouldn't spring be scum target #1 as the (then) only claimed doc?

Hmm, good point. Yes conceded, but still, doc protecting doc? OMG, we have a paradox. (AFTER POST EDIT: It seems that multi doc's is possible, so I'll entertain this...)

I gave it a 20% chance, and thought it a decent move because of the possibility of a scum no-kill.

And for now, I just feel like we need to go somewhere now, and I'd already messed up, so I claimed. I do think DO knew ahead of time that Spring was not a doc, he was the one who suggested that scum did that gambit.

WHAT? Please elaborate on this, because to me this makes no sense at all.

why in regards to the bolded statement, please?

As mentioned above, I retract that statment; wasn't thinking straight when I posted that.

Keeping the possibility of two docs in mind, couldn't they cross protect each other?

Sure, but that would also make them useless to town to get further info. But it could screw with an endgame scenario...

[Jebus]

What really sticks out to me is how easily Jebus accepts spring's claim as Doctor while thinking she is still townie... and vice versa really. All because their poem PMs are similar? I would imagine everyone got a poetic role PM.

Yeah, but having the same rhyme scheme, and have the rhyming words match up, just seems a little too similar to be different.

Jebus, when spring cc'd Budja's claim, what was the first thing you thought? Did you really think that she was a townie trying to protect the "real" doctor? If you thought she was scum, you didn't think so for very long on account of the protection, so sometime between when she claimed and when the day ended you considered her to be town. Just, walk me through your way of thinking, explain to me as best you can why you decided to save spring.

First, when I saw Spring's counterclaim of Budja, I thought that was a townie trying to get the lynch in quickly. Then I thought about it, and it made sense that Spring was either the scum's prime target, or Spring was scum. So I targeted Spring on the off chance that she was town, and looks like it worked. However, I do not think that this clears Spring by any means, and still have that little voice in the back of my head saying she's scum. Again, though, I'm willing to wait till later to see if that comes to anything.

[Jebus]

Mod, could you fix the quote tag there D:

Thanks.

[springlullaby]

Spring: Why did you target Spolium last night?

Because I thought he was pretty town. I can see a follow up question from here so I'll just answer it now, my #360 in which I say I think Spolium looks scummy was a set up. It looked pretty evident from D1 that I was either going to protect Spolium or you. So, on the off chance scum were to choose not to target me, I made sure to scramble the read on me.

This is also why I though at the beginning of the day that, in the circumstance of my being alive, my having successfully made the save was a good guess.

I realize that this answer looks complicated and possibly cast me in a manipulative light, but that's just it.

I have further thoughts about this whole 2 doc 1 watcher thing, but I'd like to post them after DO's replacement, hohum, and Spolium check in.

So Prod them three.

Plus it's that time again.

VOTE FOR DEADLINE EXTENSION

No reason not too. I'll be on low activity this w.e.; and we need time to untangle that mess + setting on a lynch.

[Spolium]

There's plenty to discuss, so I support the deadline extension.

VOTE FOR DEADLINE EXTENSION

[TonyMontana]

Deadline extension granted.

Let's say... next sunday. Playin it by ear, depending on when I'll get DO and hohum replaced.

[TonyMontana]

since deltaflyer never showed up:

Rhinox

replaces

Deuxieme Octopus

Warm welcomes, like a roast on a stake.

Now seeking hohum replacement

[Rhinox]

Hey all, Rhinox here, replacing in/
Let me do a quick reread before i begin/
I'm replacing DO - kinda feel its a shame/
But I'll do my best to help town win the game/

PS: Not sure I get all the poetry and talking in rhyme/
But I'll give it my best (so long as I have the time).

[hohum]

I know this is like the fourth time I've promised to post

But I'm rereading now!

[Spolium]

Alright then.

The main concern that arises is the potential scum counterbalance for the town having two docs - a scum vig perhaps? It would make sense for scum to no-kill N1, let the confusion surrounding the claims run rife for D2 and drop a daykill (or unstoppable nightkill) on one of the docs over N2/D3 before polishing off the other. That's the only viable scenario I can think of, in the event that the doc claims are authentic.

However, I am a little bothered by Jebus' claim. While I can see how it might be true (see above), it could be a gambit to talk his way out of his earlier wishy-washy play - Spring's claim is at least verifiable to an extent, in that her protection of me explains the no kill; Jebus could very easily have tagged his claim on because it could just as easily be argued that Spring was the NK target but Jebus protected

her

. I can't say this is more than a gut feeling, but before I got as far as Jebus' claim he was my strongest candidate for a vote.

Somehow I doubt we're looking at two sane town docs, though. Either one is scum or one is not sane. If one is scum, my money is on SL. If one is not sane, I have no idea.

I entertained the possibility of an insane doc, but I don't think that's what's happening here. If Spring is a quack and Jebus is a doc, the only way Spring wouldn't have killed me was if the scum roleblocked her (possibly due to suspecting an investigative ability from her D1 play, but willing to let her live for purposes of distraction) - in which case, where did the scum kill land? If Spring is a doc and Jebus is a quack, Jebus would've killed Spring unless he was roleblocked - so what reason did scum have to roleblock Jebus? Again, where did the scum kill land?

---SUSPICIONS---

I am most suspicious of DO, who declared that we should lynch a freshly-claimed doc "just to see", followed by a bit of floundering then total abandonment, followed by a no-show from his replacement. I'm totally willing to put my vote down on his slot on that basis, though I'm willing to see what Rhinox has to say first.

FHQ - I'm leaning towards scummy. Lynx's #513 is persuasive, and Budja's alignment is the most significant confirmed fact on which we could build a case at the moment. He would probably be my second choice for a lynch.

Sekinj seems slightly scummy, having not done anything resembling scumhunting yet. Some odd statements. Null tell on her predecessors.

Goat - I was becoming more suspicious of him because of the change in activity from D1 to D2, but Goat's general site inactivity suggests he was genuinely busy (not to mention that the majority of his D1 activity was a reaction to me, which would widen the apparent mismatch of activity between the two days). Currently leaning slightly towards town.

Spring is pinging town, RC is pinging town, Lynx is pinging town with a hint of caution ("too town to be town" paranoia on my part perhaps; in my experience this ends up being a town read).

Not sure what to make of don_johnson at all. His claim seems reasonable but I get the feeling he's dropped off the radar somewhat since his claim. One to watch (heh).

HoHum, null tell. Ice9 rang town, millar13's provocative comment about being scum is still ringing in my ears, HoHum is yet to post.

I support some variety of doc/doc/watcher chain for N2 in an attempt to verify the claims - this is probably the best way to go in terms of utilising the roles - better to get more raw information on three players than speculate about who scum may target outside of that group. I would also recommend being wary of don, as he is in a good position to cause trouble if he is scum.

[Jebus]

My thoughts in a very small nutshell

DO - Scummy, via saying to lynch the claimed doc in the form of Spring
don_johnson - I don't really buy the claim, though we'll see. I've got an idea, anyway.
fhqwhgads - Leaning town, haven't seen anything noticeably scummy.
Goatrevolt - Very townie, though somewhat inactive.
hohum - Ice was very townie, I thought, but I've not seen any of hohum to know.
Lynx The Antithesis - I'm wary of this one, though I see no harm in keeping him around.
RedCoyote - Seemed scummy at first, but is growing increasingly townie since.
sekinj - My gut says town, but I'm wary. Minimal read.
Spolium - Scummy at first, and is currently nuetral.
springlullaby - I'm very wary of this one. Though the role PM's seem to match up, I'm not quite sure I'm completely willing to trust Spring. Aside from that, Spring seems pro-town.


I'm waiting to see what Rhinox says, but I think DO/Rhinox is the right way to go.

[don_johnson]

still here and trying to keep up. i am utterly confused by two docs. i see the upside though, if we assume three scum(with one already dead) , and can confirm them both then they could possibly protect each other for a win, no? any ideas on confirming two town docs? i don't see any reason to disbelieve either claim at this point other than gut feelings, so i would rather work out a scenario to confirm them. then we can just lynch down the line.

Jebus: what about Ice did you find "townie"? also, what makes Goat "Very" townie?

Spolium: i am willing to follow directions to use my ability, you can lynch me at any time to confirm my results. i would prefer to be of some use as i feel had i understood my role i may have been much more helpful today.