Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[MacavityLock]

Has Corv played such a pro-town game and me such an anti-town one that you guys are willing to

ignore an SK claim?

Your 1086 seems to be predicated upon Corv being scum, which I don't think is very likely.

So then, your answer to my question is yes?

[Illumina]

It's more of a qualified no, actually. I'm not sure what to make of Corv's claim yet. Corv has looked pro-town to me, and you've looked neutral.

[Elmo]

Claiming SK is not remotely good play for any alignment, I think. The scenario that seems most likely is that he's a townie who believes there's a SK and two mafia and has a Masterful Plan involving a fakeclaim and crosskills. Which

never turns out well

. Not least because there is

no good reason

to believe a SK exists, which means we have some ridiculous overcomplicated situation instead of, you know, hunting the scum, as well as the fact that right now

no-one

has any idea what you're doing or what you want to happen. And apparently you've totally set your sights on me being scum and would lynch me tomorrow, for reasons totally passing understanding. Grate.

Answering my questions would be a good start;

why do you believe there is a SK

? Why do you think LF is not scum? What do you intend to happen next? Do you not get that from my point of view, you look pretty nuts?

For those keeping track at home, if we've got two mafia left and no SK, we can eliminate the pairings:
Corvuus - Elmo (Elmo hammers ML)
Corvuus - Illumina (Illumina hammers ML)
Elmo - Illumina (Either hammers ML)
Elmo - LLamaFluff (Elmo hammers ML)
Illumina - LLamaFluff (Illumina hammers ML)

The mafia pairs that work are:
Corvuus - LLamaFluff
Corvuus - MacavityLock
Elmo - MacavityLock
Illumina - MacavityLock
LLamaFluff - MacavityLock

I have absolutely no reason to believe a SK exists, and I'm treating it as a red herring until someone gives me a decent reason to believe so. (I am

just waiting

for someone to accuse me of being the SK for stating the obvious.) Could everyone please clearly state whether they think a SK exists or not, and why?

[Huntress]

Vote Count

MacavityLock 2 - (Corvuus, LLamaFluff)
Corvuus 1 - (MacavityLock)

Not voting 2 - (Elmo, Illumina)

With five players alive, it takes three votes to lynch.

[Corvuus]

LF is playing his optimal play. I believe him.

I am playing my optimal play.

Either I am lying or I am telling the truth. Either way, it is my best play because it results in the best possible overall outcome.

If I am telling the truth, then there is 2 scum left (Elmo-ML) and lynching me is autoloss for town. We lynch ML, and scum decide whether they want to NK me or not, it is up to them. Either way, it satisfies my goals and it is sufficient wifom/mindgame for other reasons.

If I am lying, then there maybe 1 or 2 scum left. I say 2 (Elmo-ML) and lynching me may or may not be auto-loss for town depending on whether there is a SK or not. Either way, we lynch ML (scum) and if the SK is someone else, they have a reason to vote with me since I will draw the NK, if I am the SK, then I'll have some semblance of protection due to hat game and possible nk resistance.


Either way, my best option is to get scum lynched since not lynching scum (with 2 scum) left equals autoloss regardless of whether I am SK or townie and why I was annoyed with LF and attempt to make a deal with him.

If you think I am scum (with whoever buddy?) then by all means, do what you like.

If you think I am town or SK, then the best move is still to lynch scum, which we think is ML at least, and most probable Elmo as well. I claim to get votes to get them lynched.

And that is basically it. I'm playing to win.

C

[Elmo]

Answering my questions would be a good start; why do you believe there is a SK? Why do you think LF is not scum?

This, again. Are you even reading my posts at this point?

[MacavityLock]

Could everyone please clearly state whether they think a SK exists or not, and why?

Probably not, but given a claimed SK, I want all the bases covered. I do

not

think we can treat Corv as pro-town, and I'm pretty satisfied in my 1086 analysis that Corv's lynch is my best play, and probably the rest of the town's best play too. I do think the most likely scenario at this point is 5: Corv and LF as remaining scum.

[Illumina]

Corv's lynch is my best play, and probably the rest of the town's best play too.

Wait, is there a difference between your best play and the town's best play? Interesting.

Also, if you think they're both scum, how would you feel about lynching LF first?

[MacavityLock]

Corv's lynch is my best play, and probably the rest of the town's best play too.

Wait, is there a difference between your best play and the town's best play? Interesting.

Also, if you think they're both scum, how would you feel about lynching LF first?

My point is that since I know I'm not scum, the analysis from my perspective ignored scenarios 1-3. Since the rest of the town shouldn't ignore those possibilities, others' conclusions may be different, though I still think it points in Corv's direction.

As for LF lynch:

Upshot: I still think lynching Corv is the optimal play, but the most likely scenarios are 5, 6, and 7, so an LF lynch would probably be alright too.

[Corvuus]

Elmo: are you asking me? I assumed you were talking to Illumina and I've already stated what I want to say.

evidence of NKs show that there "shouldn't" be a SK, but then again, I am claiming to be one so either that trumps all, or you think there is no SK (or perhaps, you are the SK since in your previous post Elmo, you ask/wait for someone to say you are a SK and you are mad at me for claiming first?) so what else is there to talk about?

I do find it interesting that both ML and Elmo are parroting the same ideas/words and such. I.e. you say I am lying about being a SK... but that I should be lynched and that LF and I are scumbuddies.

So apparently it is a mindgame, but if LF and I were scumbuddies, don't you think we would talk about this during our 'nightly chat'? Or you are saying that everything we just said and did was 'staged' and we are both scum who are both fakeclaiming? why? reasons? discussion? lynched/hammered a doc, why? reasons? discussion?

I have my reasons, LF has his. Ironically, they are anti-mafiascum reasons and it is all based on my 'gut intuition' bet that Illumina is town.

C

[Illumina]

I think Elmo's earlier assertion is correct: Corv seems to be attempting a fakeclaim/crosskill plan that he thinks will maximize chances. I don't think its the best way forward, but I still tend to think he's town.

And actually, Elmo, you make a good point. qwints being the doctor threw me off, but LF could still be scum fakeclaiming -- qwints blocking two nightkills isn't the most likely scenario (but still possible). We might also consider that maybe the theoretical SK's kills got through some nights and scum kills got blocked.

I'll take a closer look at both LF and Maclock today, when I get back from class.

[Elmo]

Elmo: are you asking me?

Yes.

I've already stated what I want to say.

But you haven't answered my questions.

then again, I am claiming to be one so either that trumps all, or you think there is no SK

This. I'm pretty sure you're not mafia, and I don't think there is a SK, so you're town, like I said.

(or perhaps, you are the SK since in your previous post Elmo, you ask/wait for someone to say you are a SK and you are mad at me for claiming first?)

No. I'm not a SK; I was remarking on something I've seen happen before. Whenever anyone brings up a possibility like a lyncher, jester, cult, etc, the first person to point out the unlikeliness of them is the first to be accused of e.g. the cult recruiter.

I do find it interesting that both ML and Elmo are parroting the same ideas/words and such. I.e. you say I am lying about being a SK... but that I should be lynched and that LF and I are scumbuddies.

I've said the direct opposite! I've said you're a lying townie and the scum are ML+LF in like my last two posts! You are the last person I want to lynch and have been since like day 1; READ MY POSTS

Seriously, you seem certain Illumina is town with the strength you're convinced I'm scum. Maybe you want to ask them whether what you're doing is a good idea? That considering LF was recently nominated for the "best fake claim" scummie and single-handedly won a large game for it, you might want to think

just a little

about the possibility of him lying here? Do you not see that if LF is mafia, his claim is perfect play, because of what you're doing

right now

?

Corvuus, please fake claim the people who you've tried to kill, being a fake SK. (I can't believe I'm doing this...)

[Illumina]

I'm still torn between LF and Maclock, but the deciding factor is the unlikelihood of qwints blocking 2 kills with an SK and the consistent distancing SC did from LF after he got in trouble and claimed doc. I'm leaning towards an LF lynch unless I can be convinced otherwise.

[MacavityLock]

@mod

, you've missed my vote on Corv.

Oops! Fixed, thanks.

[Corvuus]

Elmo:

If this is all true, then why not vote and lynch ML right now?

I.e. If you are convinced that I am lying townie, LF and ML are the scumpair, then what else is there to talk about or do? If I die tonight, then what I say about you doesn't matter. If you die tonight, then what I say about you doesn't matter. Either way, I'm offering 2 votes to lynch ML with 3 needed and, assuming we go back to read the 'likely scumpairs', if ML isn't scum, then Illumina can't be scum since the game may already be over, etc. etc. and if you are convinced that I am town despite everything, then the only possible scumpair combinations (ignoring me and yourself for the moment) would show ML as quite likely scum and therefore lynchable regardless of whether you think ML-Illumina or ML-LF.

We lynch scum today, someone gets NKed (I hope it is me!!!) and then the remnants discuss it out.

If for some crazy weird reason of NK resistance or whatever and I don't die tonight, then yeah, I won't quicklynch you Elmo due to ML and we can talk about anything and everything. As it is, whether lying townie or SK insanity, my only chance of winning is lynching scum.

I think ML is scum and I'm willing to do anything to do that. It is as simple as that.

As for LF being scum, I don't know LF at all, but I don't consider it highly likely based on my understanding. If I am wrong at the end, I will bow to LF's fakeclaiming awesomeness but until that point (or you can bring something out on LF) I don't see myself agreeing to a LF lynch today.

Try me tomorrow?

Maybe scum will ignore a SK claim and NK LF instead and save us all the wifom/mindgame.

C

[LlamaFluff]

I'm still torn between LF and Maclock, but the deciding factor is the unlikelihood of qwints blocking 2 kills with an SK and the consistent distancing SC did from LF after he got in trouble and claimed doc. I'm leaning towards an LF lynch unless I can be convinced otherwise.

Can I at leat have some reasoning that I am scum? Saying "SC distanced" really isnt giving me anything to defend against. At the start of yesterday I brought up why I think ML is scum, Jazz made it more indepth later, thats my reasoning otherwise.

[Illumina]

Sorry it took me so long to respond. Most of my case against you was linking you to qwints, which is kinda obsolete now. However, I still find it unlikely that qwints successfully blocked a kill every night. In this situation, that's the strongest indicator I can find.

Would you mind linking/reiterating your case on ML?

[Corvuus]

Illumina:

for Qwints successfully blocked a kill every night, are you basing that on what Qwints himself said or on what LF said?

If you doubt that, and think there is no SK, then your case on LF isn't that he is SK but that he is mafia?

If so, then who is his buddy? If it was Elmo, the game may already be over if Elmo hammers ML. If it is you, then the game also may be over if you hammer ML.

If you think LF is scum, then his scumbuddy has to be ML, in which case, what is the point of this discussion in determining which?

I guess that is my confusion regarding both Elmo and Illumina. You say LF is scum, but the only possibility (if we take you both out of it, and you both say I am town despite everything, either way I have nothing with LF) is that ML is his scumbuddy, yet you won't vote.

What is the reason?

C

[MacavityLock]

If so, then who is his buddy? If it was Elmo, the game may already be over if Elmo hammers ML. If it is you, then the game also may be over if you hammer ML.

If you think LF is scum, then his scumbuddy has to be ML, in which case, what is the point of this discussion in determining which?

Or you know, it could be you.

My apologies, but I'll likely be LA for under a week for midterms. I'll be around, but won't have much time for a long re-read, which is what this game deserves right now.

[Illumina]

There could be just 2 scum total, not three. Since I suspect we're in lylo, it's a case of who's the best lynch right now, in case we don't get another. I still tend to think LF is our scum, because a SK needs nightkills, and we haven't been seeing 2 kills per night. qwints blocking kills so successfully is just not that likely. I'll analyze the game more in the next few days.

[LlamaFluff]

Ok see, you still arent giving me anything to defend against and its starting to get a little annoying having a few people pushing for my lynch and no posts at all with any case in them. I take a quick gamble that doesnt pay off like I hoped, then go back to scumhunting, yeah I realize the qwints lynch wasnt ideal, but I thought it was going to be a forced win for me taking it. If he was scum I was dead regardless, if town it was my best move.

For my previous posts against ML, my iso 39 followed by back and forths with elmo in 42/43 and ML in 51/52. Jazz explained stuff a little better then me though in her post about ML

[Elmo]

You, me, Illumina vote and kill Elmo-ML (let's do ML first) as the scum team. The fact that they are even asking each other things in post is enough for me to accept them as team scum now.

Because this. From my point of view, we lynch ML (mafia), Illumina dies tonight (town), then you vote me tomorrow and LF hammers. If you're not convinced I'm scum of some kind - first it was SK, now mafia - then I've got confused by this claim thing, which is a good part of the reason I dislike it; it's hard as heck to know what you really mean. (If that is in fact the case, my only real hope is for me, Illumina and ML to lynch LF today. I'd probably be up for that too, actually.)

Also because slowly does it. I don't want to drag it out to death, but I intend to get off my ass and go back through the game thoroughly before voting in LyLo. Like I said, I'm having real difficulty seeing anything other than LF + ML.. I don't think I am, but I want to make sure I'm not missing something.

[Jazzmyn]

Sorry, I confused this game with another one that did not permit a "bah" post after death, thus my delay in saying...

BAH! Go, town!

Regards,
Jazz

[Corvuus]

Elmo, you are confused.

I never said you were SK. I said you were scum by process of elimination, assuming LF is neutral, Illumina can't be scum (at least paired with you Elmo, since then game would be over). You said yourself that you thought people would say you were SK. ironic isn't it?

I have also said that I won't quicklynch you. So either you don't believe me or you think lynching LF is better than ML.

Either way, I'm sticking with lynching ML today. If you want to do LF, then you need to make your case.

I do find it interesting that you have ML-LF as scum, Illumina as town, me as 'liar' town, speculate on night actions (why Illumina for the NK?) and yet you are still waiting. What do you want to happen??

C

[Corvuus]

The mafia pairs that work are:
Corvuus - LLamaFluff
Corvuus - MacavityLock
Elmo - MacavityLock
Illumina - MacavityLock
LLamaFluff - MacavityLock

So why aren't we lynching ML yet?

Corv