Open 120 - Rebels in the Palace - Game Over! before 756

[zwetschenwasser]

Now you're trying to get on the town side by going with the general opinion.

[TonyMontana]

After reading zwet in isolation, I'm pretty sure he's scum.

[zwetschenwasser]

Can't argue with that logic.

[Empking]

It's called satire, people. As in me making fun of the rolling process.

Satire is supposed to be funny.

[hohum]

sorry for the lack of activity. I'll get a post up tonight. Been an unusually busy week for me (as you can see I haven't posted ANYWHERE)

[Corvuus]

if your answer is that it is satire, then why post #315 and not say anywhere that it is satire/silly/not serious?

and, then, wouldn't it be ironic since you say Zwet is scum, but you just rolled and said that Zwet isn't scum/king?
-------------------

either way, what did you read in isolation?

C

[TonyMontana]

either way, what did you read in isolation?
C

Will get to it during the weekend. Pass time by reading up on someone else.

[zwetschenwasser]

This is amazing. "You're scum. Now hold on while I go get a McMuffin and I'll tell you why."

[Corvuus]

vote TonyMontana

I've already read and given my 2 cents on players/game, so I'll just wait until the weekend when you post more of your thoughts.

Thanks,

C

[Qanqan]

Yeah I generally run by the rule that someone that makes contradictions and inconsistencies is scum... so...

vote: TonyMontana

[sekinj]

Vote Count 10

(# of votes against) Voted Player - by Voter(s)

(2) TonyMontana - by Corvuus, Qanqan

(0) Corvuus
(1) Empking - by hohum
(1) Numberfourteen - by Empking
(0) ortolan
(0) Qanqan
(0) Trumpet of Doom
(0) zwetschenwasser

Five (5) votes to Lynch.

[zwetschenwasser]

He also doesn't seem to WANT to give his thoughts on why I'm scum.

[Empking]

Zwet: Who is the scummiest player? Why aren't you voting them?

[zwetschenwasser]

I'm trying to decide between tony and qangan.

[Qanqan]

lucky for us, qangan isn't a player.

[ortolan]

It would be nice.
The point is that rolling dices isn't good strategy.

You chose to remove 4 people on a dice roll. It helped our chances barely.
4/12 Scum D1 = 33%
3/8 Scum D5 = 37,5%

1/12 King D1 = 8,3%
1/8 King D5 = 12,5%

Now we are 5 days in with no way to read anyone. I deem this strategy a failure.

Decent point, but you could also argue we were unlucky not to get more guards/ the king etc. Plus we haven't actually worked out our odds of winning if we continue using the strategy yet.

He was so-so on random lynching (had to be truly random and not controlled by players?) and when the voting started, was here and around to vote and lynch players on the list but wasn't here/around for Shin's lynch who did turn up guard. It most likely is a null tell since 14 was inactive/dropped off face of the earth and then replaced by hohum so we don't know if 14 would have tried to derail Shin's guard lynch, etc.

This is quite irrelevant anyhow as only a guard himself knows who he is- neither guards or the king know the identity of other guards.

For the one person who I would pick as 'most town', I'd pick Trumpet of Doom.

Why?

result: zwetschenwasser

zwet is not king.
Because what are the odds of not catching the king in 7 dice rolls? -.-

This was a joke I'm assuming. (This vindicated by later claim to have been joking).

Yeah I generally run by the rule that someone that makes contradictions and inconsistencies is scum... so...

vote: TonyMontana

I'm sorry this vote is

very

scummy.

Do you and/or Corvuus genuinely think TonyMontana's behaviour is interpretable as making him more likely to be a guard or king? Firstly if he were guard/king his only motivation in doing that would be to clear Empking, who is his king. I've played with him before though and I know he's not that stupid. Oh, that and his claim it was satire is perfectly credible and consistent with his earlier criticism of our dice-roll method of lynching.

Anyhow

Vote: Qanqan

for poorly reasoned and opportunistic wagon hop using cliched "he's contradicting himself (not proven) therefore he's scum!" excuse.

[Qanqan]

Yeah I generally run by the rule that someone that makes contradictions and inconsistencies is scum... so...

vote: TonyMontana

I'm sorry this vote is

very

scummy.

Do you and/or Corvuus genuinely think TonyMontana's behaviour is interpretable as making him more likely to be a guard or king? Firstly if he were guard/king his only motivation in doing that would be to clear Empking, who is his king. I've played with him before though and I know he's not that stupid. Oh, that and his claim it was satire is perfectly credible and consistent with his earlier criticism of our dice-roll method of lynching.

Anyhow

Vote: Qanqan

for poorly reasoned and opportunistic wagon hop using cliched "he's contradicting himself (not proven) therefore he's scum!" excuse.

Firstly, what does Corvuus have to do with me?

Secondly, yes, I do think it makes him more likely to be a guard/the king, hence the vote. His posts, though few, have already been contradictory:

295/297/299: He is telling us how we all need to use analysis, rather than random voting to play this game, and goes so far as to 'deem the strategy a failure'.
308/309: Suddenly, in the space of less than a day, he is trying to pull for another set of random lynches like Empking did,

which is a contradiction

of his prior opinions that the random voting strategy is a complete failure. Not even a reason as to why he had changed his mind, he just did.
324: Then, he does some rather scrappy backtracking with the good old 'it was just a joke' card. If it was a joke, why defend the random rolling thing in 315. The whole satire backtracking yadda is again,

another contradiction

to 308/309/315.

Saying the satire was perfectly credible and consistent, I don't believe that. It honestly didn't sound like satire, and if it was, well, would have been nice to say that rather than waiting another whole day to kindly point out that it was. (Even a [/satire] would have been helpful)

And as far as reasoning goes, I don't see how Empking has anything to do with this. The reason I vote for contradictors is that in general, most contradictors are mafia contradicting themselves because they are trying to get a quicklynch/mislynch/easy lynch in whichever way they can, and in attempts to manipulate town with so called logic, they contradict themselves.

[Corvuus]

when i first read his original random roll post, it stuck out since i miscounted, and I considered why he would do that.

the only reason would be that zwet is king, he is guard and that it is incredibly stupid move. that is why I decided to actually write down the actual player names to check my original thought and did my edit post since I got it wrong and it didn't make sense that way. thus my unvote and ask for 'why'.

However, his response and after writing it out and 'replicating' the action, the move is still nonsensical and it is just 'fluff'.

At any rate, you are telling me that my interpretation of his actions should be:

1. TM says town is dumb due to random rolling, etc. etc.

2. TM, to prove town is dumb/random rolling sucks, decides to roll something completely irrelevant to anything (it isn't possible for the game playing out, etc.) and then after the arbitrary roll makes the arbitrary statement that Zwet can't be the king due to sheer arbitrary odds. (if it was 7d8 versus 7 diminishing dice rolls, then that would actually make 'more' sense since the other way always produces one person at the end).

3. TM says 'my plan was not rocket science, it is easy', list steps, 'profit'. This makes less and less sense if you argue it is a joke, especially since TM says Zwet is scum (in isolation) and arguably I can see his point but that is still EMPking and Zwet saying what they do is a joke... which is what TM is doing as well.

To argue 'would a guard/scum' do this is not valid.

He probably figured no one would care or say anything (or that I would miscount, ugh) so not expecting to be 'called/pressured' on it, he gives a contradictory stance. To argue that he is town precisely because it would be stupid to do this... is mindgame.

If he was so 'pro-town', then why not skip all the fluff, post his point/read on Zwet in isolation, give discussion that is USEFUL instead of a 'satire/ironic' random roll post and say town is stupid for doing so?

Either way, I'm not quicklynching him for this. I want his read on Zwet in isolation and better posts. If he is town, then he should do some work and prevent his mislynch. If he is scum, again do some work in order to try to prevent his lynch. You may have a read on his meta from other games, I don't.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To ortolan's other points:

It isn't irrelevant. Guards do not start off knowing other guards obviously, but if they can crumb or notify each other then they gain advantage.

The point is to pressure and question 14/hohum on what his view/read etc. is and everything else. We simply do not know if the guards confirmed each other or not; they may have. I want a response out of hohum, not you, since he may say something revealing, read wise or other. So don't answer or help him in his response please and keep that in mind in the future. Same thing for TM.

At this point, I consider it unlikely that you (ortolan) are guard trying to help them (odds, meta, etc.) but how do you think it will look for you if they DO flip guard?

If you have further comments/problems with my position/case, then let me know *after* TM posts his view/points on Zwet in isolation.

If it is decent/i get a better read on him, then good. I have no problem with being wrong. TM just has to convince me.

------------------------------------------------

Since you asked why I picked Trumpet as likely to be town; I'll ask you the same. Why pick me? My answer (short version) is that his stance/meta is similar/close to mine.

Corvuus

[Empking]

I can see his point but that is still EMPking and Zwet saying what they do is a joke... which

What?

[Corvuus]

post #61 of Zwet.

You do not explicitly say you are joking EMPking, but my interpretation/read on you... well, I consider it the same/equivalent and that your style is... 'haphazardous' and at some point it is likely that you will say that you were joking.

i.e. you are the type of person to put yourself in a situation similar to TM. Claim something or say too much/too extreme, and then say "joking, ha..ha..".

At this point, you (and Zwet) are consistent with yourselves; other responses/actions, but as I pointed out in my previous post; You two are on my list to get to after hohum/TM. If TM shows me a different read on zwet from my own, then we can discuss, look at both, etc.

C

[Empking]

Have you ever seen me claim to be joking?

[Corvuus]

I've only seen you in two other games, but no I didn't see you claim to be joking.

If you would like, I will recant that statement but I would find it amusing if later on you do say you are joking at some point.

C

[TonyMontana]

How is this useful?

Said the king of useless oneliners.

What irked me was the way zwet seems to wanna emphasize how he certainly has no idea who the king is:

It would be amazing if Wall-e were the king...

Orangepenguin, WERE YOU THE KING??

Also, not much posting during the random lynches, except yesterday, with endless, useless "pro-town" comments

Vote: Zachrulez

He has to be a guard, right?

There's a very good chance you're a guard. Don't let scum manipulate us, people! Stay with the program...

Foolish grasshopper. It's clear that you don't want us rebels to end your reign of terror.

Random crapspouting! OMG!

emotional plea! OMG!

We have more than a 50/50 chance that Zach is a guard/king.

Well, we have a 4/9 chance. That's close to 50.

Uhhh.. I just checked your profile, and you've made 2000 posts since december? Explains the short, empty posts, i guess..

[ortolan]

Firstly, what does Corvuus have to do with me?

You are both voting for TonyMontana, as I said. That's a bit of an obvious link there.

Secondly, yes, I do think it makes him more likely to be a guard/the king, hence the vote. His posts, though few, have already been contradictory:

Taking account of the setup, why is the way TonyMontana has acted (apparently in a contradictory manner) more likely to make him scum? Do you think zwet is the king and he is a guard? If not how would he benefit from proposing the plan in the first place, even if he later backed off it as "satire"?

Saying the satire was perfectly credible and consistent, I don't believe that. It honestly didn't sound like satire, and if it was, well, would have been nice to say that rather than waiting another whole day to kindly point out that it was. (Even a [/satire] would have been helpful)

Irrelevant to the game but that does kind of defeat the point of satire.

The reason I vote for contradictors is that in general, most contradictors are mafia contradicting themselves because they are trying to get a quicklynch/mislynch/easy lynch in whichever way they can

So which of these (quicklynch/mislynch/easy lynch) were you proposing Tony was aiming for?

It isn't irrelevant. Guards do not start off knowing other guards obviously, but if they can crumb or notify each other then they gain advantage.

And how are you proposing they would do this without very, very high risk of getting caught seeing as they have had no way of talking to each other prior to the game? What sort of methods are you suggesting they would use to breadcrumb their guardiness? Voting for the king in RVS? Saying something else about the king? What?

The point is to pressure and question 14/hohum on what his view/read etc. is and everything else. We simply do not know if the guards confirmed each other or not; they may have.

Until you convince me there is a good chance guards have somehow confirmed one another (I doubt you're going to) my point was perfectly valid.

At this point, I consider it unlikely that you (ortolan) are guard trying to help them (odds, meta, etc.) but how do you think it will look for you if they DO flip guard?

Entirely irrelevant until you demonstrate the mechanism by which I've supposedly recognised my fellow guards.

Since you asked why I picked Trumpet as likely to be town; I'll ask you the same. Why pick me? My answer (short version) is that his stance/meta is similar/close to mine.

I was very clear about why in my original post (292). And saying "his stance/meta is similar/close to mine" is a nice way of saying precisely nothing. Would you please elaborate?

[Qanqan]

You are both voting for TonyMontana, as I said. That's a bit of an obvious link there.

In hindsight, probably a bad move to vote directly after Corvuus, as it did look sus, but what did you want me to do? wait for 20 fluff posts after Corvuus's post, and then vote? I was already going to vote for TM and just because I found him suspicious, independantly to Corvuus (though it might not look it) doesn't mean I'm therefore his scumbuddy, or anything like that.

Taking account of the setup, why is the way TonyMontana has acted (apparently in a contradictory manner) more likely to make him scum?

Because it's a scumtell (sorry, should have explained my point better before), scum will contradict themselves more often than town, because scum often try to mould different opinions on different situations to try and get town lynched. And, in their attempt to get town lynched, throwing around different stances to help their cause, they contradict themselves. Town, on the other hand, don't do this (or at least not as often), since as they aren't aiming for a quick/mis/easy-lynch, they don't lie about particular stances they have, so they wont accidentally contradict it later.

Do you think zwet is the king and he is a guard? If not how would he benefit from proposing the plan in the first place, even if he later backed off it as "satire"?

Don't see how this is relevant, a bit of a red herring, since I never said anything about Zwet.

Irrelevant to the game but that does kind of defeat the point of satire.

Not being humorous also defeats the point of satire, as Empking pointed out. Hence, how was anyone supposed to know that it was satire.

So which of these (quicklynch/mislynch/easy lynch) were you proposing Tony was aiming for?

Well, in the long run, enough mislynched to win, and condsidering how the last random lynching worked out, both quicklynches and easylynches as well (an easy quickmislynch, I guess).