Mini 733- Congratulations! You are... Mafia (Game Over)

[Mirth]

Votecount

Isacc - 29.4 - [Kmd, Imaginality]
Elvis - 55/68 - [Isacc, Plum]
Plum - -.6 - [Elvis]

Not Voting - 453 - [Glork, Hascow, Caf, Sly]

Cups of Lemonade Bought : 3

Deadline: Tuesday, March 24, 12:00 PM EST

[caf19]

So, the elvis wagon.

Isacc first suspects elvis in 513, for the concentration on SlySly's 'slip'. Fair enough, I didn't think much of the 'slip' argument either. Also finds EK scummy for not commenting favourably on his plan... shades of self-preservation there, but whatever, he doesn't use it as a major part of his case. What I have trouble buying is his final reason for voting EK on Day 2:

But here's a more interesting thing to note. Darox was scum, and prior to his lynch, I asked for his top three targets. He named, Destructor, myself, and Elvis_Knits.

This is interesting to me, as two of the three are confirmed town (at least to me...those two being Dest and myself of course).

The other, however, was already pretty suspicious in my eyes. So here's what I see: a scum going down would love to accuse a scumbuddy just before his fall, just so that people might loosen up on them after he flipped. So, if two of the three are town, but the other is suspicious...I say EK is probably another scum.

Is that really a better reason to vote for her than her dodgy behaviour or her perceived meta? This just seems like speculation that can't really be verified. Isacc: is there any reason why Darox would be likely to accuse a scumbuddy in his dying throes, or is this just a feeling?

Plum's suspicion of elvis originates in much the same source - in EK's focusing on the slip. Elvis comes up with this defence:

Anyway, I do sometimes get caught up in wording. Because I think it can show how a player is subconsciously considering themselves. If they are putting themselves in the town group, or out of the town group. That's pretty significant to me. Other things I have seen, a player voting someone they consider town, a player slip and name an exact number of scum in a game. That is pretty much defnitely a scum slip. I try to notice things like that. You may not agree with me. It's not an exact science, but it helps me a lot.

Looking for slips in general is fine, but this isn't really one, as you don't seem to accept that 'town' is generally interchangeable for 'everyone' around here. So not a huge fan of this defence. But at this point, it appears that the case against EK is built entirely around this one event, and she doesn't seem to have a general history of scummy behaviour throughout the game.

In Plum's 779, the post I find suspicious for an analysis of everyone under the implicit assumption that Darox is town, she assesses elvis's approaches to Darox and others, and comes up with this conclusion:

EK's Darox vote itself doesn't look conclusively scummy itself, I conclude. The stronger scumtells I've picked up along the path, however, are still relevant, at least in my mind. I'd wondered whether my vote on EK needed reconsidering - on reread, however, I think EK's a pretty good pick for scum right now.

The 'scumtells I've picked up along the path' I assume refer back to the 'false slip and change the subject' debate... In other words, yet again no new strong evidence is brought up against her, but she remains a top suspect. Am I missing something?

Incidentally, elvis's D1 behaviour towards Darox doesn't scream 'buddy' to me. Initially she suspects him quite a bit without voting (319, 571) but she does vote for him in 710 - which is earlier than Plum or Sly, or even Isacc.

So, I can see elvis did some questionable things in isolation, and this puts her about level with Kmd on my 'dar. Which is to say, below Sly and Plum. That clarifies things somewhat for me.

Vote Plum

I'd still like a response to 1017, though, Plum.

[Kmd4390]

I've got to catch up this afternoon. Spent all my time in Marathon Day games.

[Kmd4390]

I'm Sorry I didn't get to this game. I'll get to it tonight or tomorrow.

[Mirth]

Glork has been prodded

[Isacc]

@Caf's Question: I didn't find Darox's accusation a greater reason for scumminess, merely something that I felt added weight to my theory. EK has been in my top suspect list since Day 1, and it was EK that I planned to interrogate today regardless of Darox's accusation. That merely reaffirmed my suspicions.

The reason it would be likely for Darox to attack a scumbuddy is just simple distancing. He flips scum, and attacks often become looked at as reversed, sometimes just subconsciously.


Also, you're on Plum too now? Am I the only one who finds Plum still very pro-town? As much as EK tried to accuse Plum of talking too much to avoid answering questions, I understood Plum's post(s) perfectly, and I thought she answered a lot of the questions that EK had to re-ask. But, Idk, maybe I just think in a similar way to Plum.

Really though, I do not see scumtells coming from Plum. I won't defend her against accusations, but I feel it helpful to at least point out that I don't find her scummy.

[Kmd4390]

Plum's V/LA noted. Mod is back. And you're getting a deadline.

Deadline: Tuesday, March 24, 12:00 PM EST

If we don't lynch while I'm away, this game will be one of my top priorities when I return.

Ok, so I just read up. And as far as Plum vs. EK, I see Plum as more likely scum, but Isacc above her. So if needed for deadline, I'd switch to Plum over EK.

Also, I find it interesting that not many people have commented on my Isacc case.

[elvis_knits]

Really though, I do not see scumtells coming from Plum. I won't defend her against accusations, but I feel it helpful to at least point out that I don't find her scummy.

You've been pro-plum all game. I find it strange for you to be so adament. I understand having a town read on a person. That's normal. But you categorically deny any attack against Plum. How can you be so sure? You can say "I won't defend her against accusations" but you actually ARE defending her.

kmd: Can you recap your points on Isacc, or point me to the most important post? I've been so focused on interrogating Plum, that I glossed over the stuff between you and Isacc.

[Kmd4390]

EK, post 933 on page 38.

I don't see how you could have missed that though...

[Mirth]

Imaginality has been prodded. You people really need to get on with the talking before I subject you all to my current Bad Europop Video of the Week. I also have a craving for kittens.

[SlySly]

In my experience, those who repeatedly insist on using WoW usually flip scum.

FoS: Plum

--------------------

I have never heard of a town gambit.

vote: Isacc

[imaginality]

My internet iss back up, yes? I haf not see anyzink zis last vew day to sway me avay frrrom thinkingk Isaac is probability our best lynch choice forr today.

[Isacc]

SlySly: What? Never heard of a town gambit? WTF are you even talking about?

[SlySly]

Have you already forgotten your own action that you, yourself, called a gambit?

[Plum]

I can't believe I spent my lunch period making a post and it

didn't go through

. Ugh, sorry about that. Stuff I've been asked for coming up:

Those quotations sum up her approach. Fair enough, but why was this not articulated? Plum is a very verbose player and had no problem expressing in great detail her thoughts on the players she suspected (779, for example, is a megapost that addresses both EK and des). Even when players turn up 'middling' on her scumdar, she still tends to elaborate on it (e.g. her posts on dahill vs Kmd, neither of whom she found especially scummy). So why the silence on Darox? I can't seem to explain it. Plum, you said you'd thought you'd made it clear that you thought Darox was not terrible but not brilliant - can you point to any examples of where you might have said this? Without evidence, I can't help but view the case as a 'trust me or don't' affair, which is not entirely solid.

Darox was middling-bad but with little to analyze due to lack of activity, which I do believe I counted as a point against him. You asked for some quotes:

I have not seen enough of Glork or Darox to have anything but a slight scum-gut on the both of them

Though Kmd, I have time to say that there are probably others I'd rather lynch than Isacc if the Elvis wagon doesn't hit a stride soon, but I'd have to at least skim Glork's and Darox's (off the top of my head, players who might be decent lynches)

After a quick rescan of both, I've determined that Darox would be a lynch I'd prefer over a Glork lynch today (considerable sense I'm getting that he has, at times, actively lurked/provided little content).

Darox claim sounds like the right thing about now. He hasn't struck me as particularly townie, has lurked/contributed relatively little, overall, etc. I'd prefer a Des lynch over a Darox lynch, but deadline Darox lynch sounds decent

The 'scumtells I've picked up along the path' I assume refer back to the 'false slip and change the subject' debate... In other words, yet again no new strong evidence is brought up against her, but she remains a top suspect. Am I missing something?

Re: Hascow going along with Isacc's witch hunt of Des:

I dropped the issue at its inception, partly because at face value the accusation was so ridiculous and EK had said, if I recall, that she'd been in need of a reread. However, following up, she did not acknowledge that the accusation was inane but attempted to justify it with weak points. Cow's lack of comment on Isacc's plan was in no way ambiguous enough, much less as scummy as the original accusation's tone would imply, to justify considering a vote. Basically, saying that Cow 'went on Isacc's witch hunt against des' is a lie, implying that he did something scummy he did not do is itself scummy, and the weak justifications don't help.

I'd brought up the point before, but as in the quote I mostly dropped the matter at first because I believed the accusation stupid and thought it likely EK

was

desperately in need of some sort of reread. In that megapost I noted that
a) such was not the case - thus the original accusation was scummy of EK

and

b) EK tried to back up her crap accusation with weak points.

I don't in fact believe I brought up the 'scumslip or not' argument in my analysis of EK proper. In any case, you may see for yourself, Caf, that I did bring up new arguments in that post and did not merely cite the old 'scumslip or not' argument as new evidence reinforcing my belief that EK was fairly likely scum. Again, this is an important part of my case against EK - fairly integral. You said you read up and analyzed the EK wagon, but you didn't mention this point. What say you?

The reason it would be likely for Darox to attack a scumbuddy is just simple distancing. He flips scum, and attacks often become looked at as reversed, sometimes just subconsciously.

Trying to predict scum thought process in the case of an almost-lynched scum's words is prone to extreme WIFOM and it's very difficult to come up with anything nearly this conclusive.

The Isacc case sponsored on your local station by Kmd: In honor of Kmd having noted in the Marathon Day game I ran that I have a rather wordy style over all, I'll make this fairly brief.

What's interesting about the Isacc case:

1. Really the most interesting part is the connections to Darox. As noted, one thing detracting from my case on EK is the fact that there's nothing strongly pointing at the possibility that she's Darox's scumbuddy - and arguably there are certain things she's done that would indicate she's not Darox's buddy.

But Isacc - first thing after he takes off his random vote we see two FOSs on Darox but no vote on anyone at all - possibility of distancing here - after all, if you don't have a vote in the early stages, where better to put it but the guy you've semi-officially suspected twice? But he doesn't, suggesting that he might have been attempting distancing without actually drawing too much attention to Darox.

Isacc - you didn't join the original SlySly wagon, fine. However, riddle me this: Why did you join the second wagon on him after not having wanted to lynch him previously? Did you express suspicions between the two wagons that I've missed? Did the desire to test the theory override the fact that apparently you hadn't really found Sly too suspicious?

To continue: Issac is disturbed by Darox fairly early, and promises a PBPA on him. It never materializes (not unlike Darox's oft-promised analysis). Hey Isacc - do you

have

the PBPA you said you were working on? if so, could you please post it (maybe in a quote box if that's how you roll)?

Re: Isacc's eventual vote on Darox: Did it come after it became clear that Darox was most likely going to get lynched? Actually, that's a fair possibility. I believe Isacc stated that it came actually when - hey lemme break our a quote:

And NO I definitely did NOT vote Darox when he was our most likely lynch. In fact, I'm pretty damn certain I voted Darox about the time everyone was switching away from him in favor of Destructor.

I dunno - it seemed likely that Darox was going to be lynched - this was Tuesday, recall. I kinda dispute that Des was ever a huge contender against the Darox wagon at all, as at its peak it only had three vote-capable supporters of it over the Darox wagon - which wouldn't have even gotten a deadline lynch in and of itself. Having said that, does the Isacc vote look like likely bussing? At that point, again, Darox looked like the most likely lynch. Decent scum would likely have tried bussing at that point.

The 'gambit or what' point has been done to death, and I think I've expressed feelings that it's a mild scumtell, as the whole thing looked stupid, and there weren't strong signs pointing to it as scum stupidity as opposed to unable-to-tell-stupidity.

All in all - Isacc makes a stronger case than EK for actually being a Darox buddy. I still can't quite shake the feeling that EK is scum, though, and I'm still uncomfortable with the points in the case on her that I've discussed previously - I see them as scum making really false accusations against players and backing up her scummy behavior with very weak defenses. It's also possible that EK is scum not aligned with Darox (SK is a possibility) - I see her as scummier in her own right of her own deeds than Isacc, whom I see as not quite as scummy but with a distinctly stronger possibility of being Darox's buddy

HOS: Isacc

And now some questions for the peanut gallery:

@ Sly: What do you mean by the abbreviation 'WoW'? How did you not note Isacc's gambit and vote him before? The gambit was out in the open and argued about prominently, if I recall. Have you never heard of a town gambit, truthfully? I myself can remember both scum and townie gambits.

@ Imaginality: You're back, great. Thoughts?







Mod seemed hungry.

Nom Nom Nom. I am seriously considering just announcing that you won the game for the kitten pictures. Hmmmm

[SlySly]

WoW = wall of words

[Isacc]

@Plum: In response to your questions to me...

In the Sly wagon, I hadn't found him scummy originally, and then when he challenged us to test his claim, I found it worth going along with, so I guess the answer is: yes, testing his theory overrid not finding him suspicious.

Wait, next you are asking me for my PBPA? It

did

materialize, I have already posted it. Post... 790. Don't accuse me of not making my PBPA xD.

About my vote for Darox: It came after he made his crappy analysis, and was reaffirmed after my PBPA.



Sly: I have not forgotten my actions, I am just wondering how it is only NOW that you vote me over it. It's LONG since happened. Also, if you do not believe in town gambits, have you ever read the mafiascum wiki? The example of a gambit on that page is a town gambit. Epic fail to you.

[SlySly]

I didn't like your choice of wording when you first mentioned as a gambit. I should have mentioned it then, but I didn't.

I do not have the wiki memorized. I have browsed it lightly. I base things more on what I have experienced in game, for the most part. I have never seen anyone claim to have used a town gambit before. I have heard reference to gambit only as it applies to scum, in game.

Do you have a link to a finished game where reference has been specifically made to a town gambit?

[Isacc]

Finished? Unfortunately no. I have a just-about-to-end game that I could name a town gambit from, however the person who did it isn't dead so he's

technically

not guaranteed town, regardless of chances.

[Isacc]

Sorry for double-post. I looked at the wiki, it references a

specific

town gambit:

http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?tit ... o's_Gambit

Proof enough? Or are you going to continue to claim gambits are inherently scum tactics?

[Kmd4390]

Sly, Gambits can be protown.

I had one in Marathon Day that was pretty risky, but pretty awesome. It was 3 player LYLO, and when you play real time, you get a lot of cross posting. So I voted a player in one post and immediately unvoted in the next post. The scum voted thinking it was for the win. Scum caught.

Another one. After a massclaim. A player is replaced. Ask the player who replaces for a claim. If their claim is different than what their predecessor claimed, they are scum.

There are several protown Gambits. The issue I had with Isacc's is that I didn't see it as a Gambit. I saw it as a scum move that didn't work, so he tried to call it a Gambit.

[caf19]

In my experience, those who repeatedly insist on using WoW usually flip scum.

FoS: Plum

--------------------

I have never heard of a town gambit.

vote: Isacc

This post strikes me as odd. The reasons for suspecting people seem rather underdeveloped and "policy". FoSing Plum because of post length? Surely there must be better reasons at this relatively advanced stage of the game. And your vote continues to jump around at an alarming rate. Is that all the reasoning you have, or are you hiding something?

I'll comment on Kmd's case on Isacc when I have time. My final essay (big part of my degree) is in for Monday... last minute panic time.

[imaginality]

Vrei sã pleci dar nu-mã, nu-mã iei
Nu-mã, nu-mã iei, nu-mã, nu-mã, nu-mã iei
Chipul tãu si dragostea din tei
Mi-amintesc de ochii tãi

[Plum]

SlySly: I and another townie are both dead in a game ongoing. Other townie was under pressure, fakeclaimed Cop to draw out scum (he assumed that because the possibility of the claim's truth wasn't high due to previous events the townies wouldn't believe him whereas the scum, knowing he was town, would be more likely to do so). It was an extraordinarily stupid gambit in my humble opinion, but the guy did flip townie. Likewise, as Kmd has posted, there are other, better gambits townies can try. I've already expressed my opinions on Isacc's gambit specifically.

I agree with Caf re: your FOS on me regarding my 'walls of words'.

Isacc: Yes, you did post your PBPA. Saying you did not was my error entirely and I sincerely apologize. That accusation and request retracted.

[SlySly]

I want to see an example where a protown player called his actions, in game, a gambit. I have never seen a protown player do that before, ever.