Mini 692: Boost Mafia (Game Over!)

[Xtoxm]

Perhaps GC started with an RB and they're putting everything on winning today, or something.

[Elmo]

Day 3, Vote Count #7 - Lynching

Green Crayons (3) <- Xtoxm, Incognito, TDC
Xtoxm (2) <- Raging Rabbit, eldarad

Not voting: Green Crayons.

Boost Count

Green Crayons (3) <- Incognito, TDC, Xtoxm
Eldarad <- Green Crayons
TDC <- Raging Rabbit

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch/boost. The

deadline

is Saturday, 14th March 21:00 UTC, which is 5 days, 23 hours and 19 minutes from this post.

[Green Crayons]

Good job, Incog. You have successfully twisted the original conversation around to where it no longer is talking about the original point.

You first said:

@Green Crayons: Part of your TDC-suspicion was based on the fact that TDC didn't attempt to push the early TDC-boostwagon off of himself despite the fact that he's now claimed Vanilla. What do you make of eldarad's recent suggestions of pushing for the boosting of a Vanilla? Do you think this makes him look scummy?

Which structured the conversation around a very simple discussion concerning a dichotomy: boosting townies in the early part of the game (as indicated by your reference to TDC's earlier play) versus boosting townies in the later part of the game (as indicated by Eld's later play). Which is more suspicious, when is it more prudent to boost a townie, that sort of thing.

Now, you want to talk about:

If Vanillas don't gain anything from being boosted and if 1 of the 3 Vanilla claimants is likely scum, then it makes logical sense for us to NOT boost one of the Vanillas -- if the person we choose to boost is town, HE WON'T GAIN ANYTHING ANYWAY. If the person we choose to boost is scum, he MIGHT gain something and that's not worth the risk.

What are the chances that a townie is a scumbag and what is the risk involved in boosting a claimed townie.

There's a difference. You originally wanted me to compare my suspicion of TDC's desire of having a townie boosted in the early game with your suspicion of Eld's desire of having a townie boosted in the late game. Now that I've actually explained why there's a definitive tactical difference in the boosting of townies in different segments of the game, you're trying to spin that around and say that I was somehow not answering (or answering incorrectly) a wholly different question.

Maybe you're just bad at actually expressing all what entailed in your original question. Or maybe this new question wasn't really formed until you got about halfway through my explanation and you just tied this branch-off question with your original, assuming that they go hand in hand. Well they don't. And to suddenly presuppose that my answer to a different question suddenly explains this new line of questioning is shortsighted.

For all third parties involved - our fellow town members and spectators alike - (because undoubtedly you won't admit to it), I'll use your own words to show how you've tied up these two different questions as a single entity in your mind:

According to you, you found it suspicious that TDC would expect something upon being boosted because Vanillas shouldn't expect to receive anything from a boost -- they're vanilla. If we're going by the information that Electra gave us in that it's LIKELY that the Vanillas won't gain anything upon being boosted (these are your own WORDS after all), why would it NOT be suspicious for eldarad to suggest that we should STILL boost one of the Vanillas now when one of those Vanillas could be scum and could possibly gain something upon being boosted?

Almost everything from this quote addresses our previous conversation (the tactical advantages/disadvantages of boosting townies and the when of doing so and who would be suspicious depending on when they would suggest such a move). But you tie it up with a new thread of discussion that nobody has even commented upon except for yourself. Right now.

In fact, all of the following (from above) is simply a continuation of our conversation: "

According to you, you found it suspicious that TDC would expect something upon being boosted because Vanillas shouldn't expect to receive anything from a boost -- they're vanilla. If we're going by the information that Electra gave us in that it's LIKELY that the Vanillas won't gain anything upon being boosted (these are your own WORDS after all), why would it NOT be suspicious for eldarad to suggest that we should STILL boost one of the Vanillas now...

" You're talking about my point of how TDC was expecting something from being boosted when he shouldn't have been and thus should have attempted to dissuade his earlier boost-wagon and is thus suspicious. And you seem to be saying this in agreement - you don't really seem to be discounting this position at all. Please keep this in mind when you hand the game to scum by lynching me and vigging Eld. Then you put up your point that if boosting town earlier might be suspicious then boosting town later in the game should also be suspicious. You've made this point over and over again without actually saying why.

But, oh! Here it is - finally, the reasoning why boosting town in the later part of the game should be just as suspicious as boosting town in the earlier part of the game (once again, from above): "

...when one of those Vanillas could be scum and could possibly gain something upon being boosted?

"

...Wait, what?

You go from asking me my opinion upon the tactical difference in the time frame of boosting townies and then take my response to that question and use it to answer the (unasked, implied only through this most recent post) question of "What do you think the chances are that we boost a scum from the pool of claimed townies?"


They're different questions, each with their different parts. Here are the answers to your questions:

First ("Why is TDC suspicious for acting in such a manner that would promote boosting a townie early in the game but Eld not suspicious for acting in such a manner that would promote boosting a townie later in the game?"):
A) It's suspicious to want to boost townies earlier in the game when we have

the mods' own post

and a confirmed townie telling us that there are townie roles that don't get any boosted benefits. The town can afford to take greater risks earlier in the game. Wanting to "play it safe" by wanting to boost one's self rather than another individual is suspicious.
B) From the above, it is less suspicious to want to boost a townie later in the game because the town cannot afford to take greater risks. If you don't understand the concept of risk and the ability to handle risk, I can't help you.

Second ("Why is it not suspicious/good play to want to boost one of the claimed townies at this point in the game?"):
A) The possibility of a scum being one of the remaining claimed townies (RR, TDC, Eld) is 1 in 3. Let's look at this scenario in and of itself for the moment, disregarding any other options. In other words, let's assume that we

have

to boost a claimed townie. In needing to determine who to boost, statistically speaking, we have a 66% chance of boosting a right person. However, when we are usually confronted with a three-man situation, we are doing something totally different: lynching. Our boosting situation is much better than the usual 33% chance of lynching the right person one has when faced with a three-player scenario. The window of opportunity (that is, the opportunity to make the right choice) for our specific need (to boost a townie instead of a scum) is much greater than the general need (to lynch a scum instead of a townie) when players find themselves in a three-player standoff. Why am I comparing the ratios of success for the different scenarios? Because mafia isn't a game solely of numbers. These three players are not equally suspicious. And just like when we're faced with a three-way standoff to vote, we will be using our intuition, logic and suspicions to determine who to boost. This actually makes our ratio of success much higher than 66%, since we don't weigh each of the three options equally. And if towns win with a 33% chance of lynching the right person, we shouldn't have too much of a trouble with a higher than 66% chance of boosting the right player.
B) But, of course, boosting one of these three players is not the only option. We could boost who we lynch (looking like me) or the comical third option (Xtox).
B1) Let's look at boosting the lynchee first. Assuming we're lynching a scum (which we aren't, if it's me, but for the sake of argument, let's assume), then how in the world is it prudent to also boost them? First, how do we know the boost affect would occur before or after their death? This might not be too big of deal, but what if their boost ability is something along the lines of becoming vengeful? Or maybe the ability to mask their true alignment upon death (thus messing up our reads)? Or any other power I could just pull out of my butt on the spot? I think we're needlessly putting power in the hands of scum, but to what end? This option is a big ole question mark being based off the assumption that scumbags being boosted is not a bad thing just as long as they're also lynched. There's nothing except supposition dictating this policy and it's bad play.
B2) Third option of boosting Xtox. You know, I wouldn't be opposed to the idea of boosting a third party (non-claimed townie, not the lynchee), other than the fact that the third party in this situation is Xtox and

he's been acting like a raging scumbag since the beginning of this day

. Seriously. All you had to do was say "Xtox acts incredibly suspicious as town" and he's fashioned that into an iron helm as if you're the Word of Mod clearing him. That in itself is incredibly scummy (!), but since he's not lurking he must be town (since that's the only indication I saw you give of what scum-Xtox does). Heaven forbid you should play with an active scum-Xtox, you wouldn't know what to do with yourself. And while you think that is the case here (that Xtox isn't scum, just super-suspicious townie as always), Eld, RR and myself all have had misgivings of your faith in his "town" behavior. To suggest that this option is somehow safer than a more than 66% chance of picking a non-scum (from choosing solely between the claimed townies) is incredibly thick skulled.

So, there you go. My answers to your different questions. Please don't go fashioning my answer to one of your questions somehow my response to a totally separate question. It's insulting.

tl;dr

:
Wanting to boost town early is suspicious (TDC).
Wanting to boost town later is not suspicious (Eld).
These two deductions are based off of the town's ability to handle risk.
Choosing to boost from a pool of claimed townies is safest (<66% chance of success).
Choosing to boost believed scum-to-be-lynched is reckless and potentially harmful.
Choosing to boost third party (Xtox) is an unknown figure of failure - an all (because he's town) or nothing (because he's scum), which leaves no margin for error. Not to mention you're the only other person (besides Xtox himself) who has really bought his complete, 100% townieness, which should leave

anyone

less than confident when the stakes are this high.

[TDC]

This is getting ridiculous.

First ("Why is TDC suspicious for acting in such a manner that would promote boosting a townie early in the game but Eld not suspicious for acting in such a manner that would promote boosting a townie later in the game?"):

The question is false to begin with (and that's not Incognito's fault because he never posed it like that, it's your fault because you've just changed it at your will from "not doing anything against his boost wagon" to "promote boosting a townie"):
I never "promoted" boosting a vanilla, let alone myself.

So you've just changed a point that made no sense ("he's suspicious for not doing anything against his (unsuccessful) boost wagon") into one that is factually incorrect.

[TDC]

Oh, and GC: What exactly has Xtoxm done "since the beginning of this day" that made you turn around on him?

[Xtoxm]

Become insistant on his lynch.

[Green Crayons]

TDC: It all goes to promote the same point - doing nothing to dissuade a "townie" boost in the early portion of the game. It would qualify as bad play under normal circumstances. The fact that it was your own boost wagon is what makes it more suspicious.

Also, there's this neat option of where you can filter a player's posts at the bottom of the page. Do that. Filter for only Green Crayons. Check from the beginning of this game day and actually read the game thread for once instead of continually lurking and popping in with fluff posts. You'll see how my support for sthar slowly evolved into a strong suspicion against Xtox. It only took over four weeks! Surely you'll be able to appreciate the actual workings of a town mind instead of your usual poorly animated marionette show attempting to mimic a town's behavior.

Xtox: Thanks again for misrepresenting how something happened... really helping out your "obvtown" agenda. My suspicions for you didn't occur over night. Great to boil things down to an incorrect tag line, though!

[Raging Rabbit]

I agree with Incog in the who to boost argument, it should be whoever we lynch.

A) The possibility of a scum being one of the remaining claimed townies (RR, TDC, Eld) is 1 in 3. Let's look at this scenario in and of itself for the moment, disregarding any other options. In other words, let's assume that we have to boost a claimed townie. In needing to determine who to boost, statistically speaking, we have a 66% chance of boosting a right person. However, when we are usually confronted with a three-man situation, we are doing something totally different: lynching. Our boosting situation is much better than the usual 33% chance of lynching the right person one has when faced with a three-player scenario. The window of opportunity (that is, the opportunity to make the right choice) for our specific need (to boost a townie instead of a scum) is much greater than the general need (to lynch a scum instead of a townie) when players find themselves in a three-player standoff. Why am I comparing the ratios of success for the different scenarios? Because mafia isn't a game solely of numbers. These three players are not equally suspicious. And just like when we're faced with a three-way standoff to vote, we will be using our intuition, logic and suspicions to determine who to boost. This actually makes our ratio of success much higher than 66%, since we don't weigh each of the three options equally. And if towns win with a 33% chance of lynching the right person, we shouldn't have too much of a trouble with a higher than 66% chance of boosting the right player.

What you aren't taking into account is the risk-gain ration. Boosting a vanilla townie most probably does nothing, judging from electra's info. Boosting scum could give them a second kill and single handedly lose us the game. A slightly more than 66% chance of (probably) nothing happening isn't worth the slightly less than 33% of something bad happening. I'd rather boost whoever we lynch (and I'm pretty sure he won't become vengful or anything, everything we've seen so far suggests boosts only effect either then night or the following day) and have 100% chance of nothing happening.

Incog, on GC being likely town - just look at GC's posts from the start of this day, 1312 in particular. It reads of genuine frustration at being suspected and genuine will to find scum. I think that's pretty hard to fake.


I'm sure either Xtoxm or eld is scum, probably both. It'd be a grave mistake to lynch neither.

I'd much rather lynch Xtoxm today, since he could be telling the truth about having two votes but still be scum (very likely imo). If that's the case, even if we lynch Xtoxm's partner, Incog will likely incorrectly vig someone since he's convinced Xtoxm's scum and also get nk'd, and Xtoxm will then be able to use his double vote to force a no lynch and win the game. Meaning if Xtoxm's scum, lynching anybody but him will very possibly lose us the game, and if he's town that makes eld obvscum (imo, at least) and Incog still has a good chance to vig correctly and earn us antoher day. So I'm keeping my vote where it is, and hopefully GC and TDC will join.

[TDC]

Incognito: If we lynch Xtoxm and he's town as you say, will you vig GC?

[Incognito]

GC: I read through all of that and okay. I'm not going to tap into it further because it's becoming heavily diluted. I'm almost to the point where I don't even know what it is I'm arguing anymore.

TDC, why do you want to know that?

Also, Raging Rabbit, if you're that sold on GC being town and you think one of eldarad and Xtoxm is scum, would you support an eldarad lynch today?

[Incognito]

Odd. I could have sworn that TDC was more involved in the Jahudo lynch than he actually seemed to be. TDC, a quick filter of your posts for the keyword "Jah" reveals not much mentioning of him during Day 1. You eventually mentioned the following:

That said, I think that your unwillingness to join what seems to be the only competing wagon to yours is a mild pro-town sign and I'd prefer a Jahudo lynch over a you-lynch, anyway.

unvote; vote: Jahudo

What in particular made you prefer a Jahudo lynch over a Huntress lynch?

Prior to this, the following post was just about the first time you ever mentioned Jahudo all day:

Okay, so only a few days to deadline, and we neet to get a full, 7 vote, lynch done.
Biggest wagon is eldarad with three, but I've already said I don't want to lynch him.
Of the two two vote wagons I prefer Huntress.

unvote vote Huntress

I would consider switching to back Green Crayons or changing to iLord, Jahudo or Guardian (in about that order) if they become viable lynches.

...where you listed him as your number 3 suspect.

[TDC]

TDC, why do you want to know that?

I understand RR's point that if we're ever going to lynch Xtoxm it has to happen today.
But I think GC is more likely scum. So unless you're going to vig GC, I'd rather lynch him and not Xtoxm.

What in particular made you prefer a Jahudo lynch over a Huntress lynch?

I wasn't too fond of a Huntress lynch to begin with (hence her not making the "short list").
I figure that had I had an overwhelmingly good reason for lynching Jahudo, I would've posted it back then. He just felt spectatory ("Hey A, what do you think about B's argument that C has done X").

...where you listed him as your number 3 suspect.

Yes. What's your point there?

[Raging Rabbit]

Also, Raging Rabbit, if you're that sold on GC being town and you think one of eldarad and Xtoxm is scum, would you support an eldarad lynch today?

eld is by far my second preferance, but like I said before even lynching Xtoxm's buddy could lose us the game since you're so damn sure he's town. So I'd only support lynching anyone else when I'm absolutely convinced Xtoxm can't be lynched today.

Good catch about TDC there, though it does somewhat suit his usual brief self. I need to reread him.

[Incognito]

TDC, I don't think I'll really, truly know who I'm going to vig until tonight comes, and I have one additional alignment (from today's lynch) to look at. The only people who I feel really comfortable with as town right now are Xtoxm and to a slightly lesser extent, Raging Rabbit. eldarad has felt scummy to me all day, Green Crayons was/does also but even his lynch is giving me cold feet, and I did feel comfortable with you until I had a good, hard look at your isolation just now.

I wasn't too fond of a Huntress lynch to begin with (hence her not making the "short list").

So why did you vote for her instead of pushing one of the people who

did

make your "short list"? At the time, she was a wagon and so was eldarad. I understand that at the time, you made your thoughts clear that you wouldn't support an eldarad lynch but both wagons had very little votes anyway and, as you could see, it wasn't very difficult to get a brand new wagon off the ground.

I figure that had I had an overwhelmingly good reason for lynching Jahudo, I would've posted it back then. He just felt spectatory ("Hey A, what do you think about B's argument that C has done X").

Why didn't you mention this at the time? This was the case iLord and I pushed, and I've looked through your posts and couldn't find any point where you actually agreed with the case. He just seemed to "magically" appear on your "short list".

As for my point about you listing him as your number 3, it just seemed to happen out of nowhere. Again, I just don't see any point where you say something like "yeah, I agree with Incog and iLord about Jahudo". He just seemed to appear on your suspect list.

[Xtoxm]

Incog, i'm quite certain GC is scum. There have been 2 townies (me and you) pushing him for ages, and yet, people still contradict their confirmed townie. That doesn't happen on townie wagons.

[TDC]

TDC, I don't think I'll really, truly know who I'm going to vig until tonight comes, and I have one additional alignment (from today's lynch) to look at.

Well yes, but if we lynch Xtoxm and he's town, there's nothing new for you in there.

At the time, she was a wagon and so was eldarad. I understand that at the time, you made your thoughts clear that you wouldn't support an eldarad lynch but both wagons had very little votes anyway and, as you could see, it wasn't very difficult to get a brand new wagon off the ground.

I certainly didn't feel like

I

could get a wagon on either of those four started in time. (I think a few days were left). Some had been squabbling with Jahudo for a while, but nobody bothered voting (or maybe he had one vote at the time? I'd need to check back, or maybe you remember), which left me with the impression that there wasn't that much interest in actually lynching him. The other three on the list seemed outright impossible to lynch.
A Huntress lynch was better than a no-lynch or an eldarad-lynch.

Why didn't you mention this at the time? This was the case iLord and I pushed, and I've looked through your posts and couldn't find any point where you actually agreed with the case. He just seemed to "magically" appear on your "short list".

As for my point about you listing him as your number 3, it just seemed to happen out of nowhere. Again, I just don't see any point where you say something like "yeah, I agree with Incog and iLord about Jahudo". He just seemed to appear on your suspect list.

Again, I can't quite remember what I thought in that moment three months ago, but I figure that had I sat there and thought "Oh, this case against Jahudo is brilliant and I agree with it" I would've posted just that and put him on top of my list (and maybe even voted him right away).
Clearly, I didn't.
Judging by the shortness of the post in question, I just wanted to get my preferences out there, so that we could come to a solution in time. (You will probably remember that I did that whenever we were nearing a deadline and needed to lynch/boost.)

[Raging Rabbit]

Incog, i'm quite certain GC is scum. There have been 2 townies (me and you) pushing him for ages, and yet, people still contradict their confirmed townie. That doesn't happen on townie wagons.

This is pure bullshit, and stop appealing to the "cofirmed" townie agreeing with you all the time.

[Xtoxm]

I wasn't talking to you.

[Green Crayons]

For what it's worth,

vote: Xtox

. I would really prefer TDC, but since nobody pays my suspicions any heed, might as well go with someone else I find suspicious.

[Raging Rabbit]

TDC, it's hammertime.

[TDC]

We need to boost someone first.

Boost Count
Green Crayons (3) <- Incognito, TDC, Xtoxm
Eldarad <- Green Crayons
TDC <- Raging Rabbit

I will under no circumstances boost GC while lynching Xtoxm.

[TDC]

I'd also like to hear from eldarad (there's a couple of questions lying around for him) and Incognito (about the what-if-Xtoxm-is-town issue).

[Incognito]

For what it's worth,

vote: Xtox

. I would really prefer TDC, but since nobody pays my suspicions any heed, might as well go with someone else I find suspicious.

Dunno if you noticed, but I was actually questioning TDC on this very page about something I found suspicious about him...

TDC, it's not a question of "if" -- it's more like

when

Xtoxm flips town. I don't think there's any merit or value in me answering the question of who I will be vigging tonight.

[Green Crayons]

Dunno if you noticed, but I was actually questioning TDC on this very page about something I found suspicious about him...

I did notice. I also noticed that the deadline is three days away. I don't feel comfortable on the brink of a lynch with a deadline looming while a single person is just now starting to question another player I have repeatedly said is my number one scum suspect. Even assuming you were to suddenly see the light I've been shooting out of my butt for the past month or so, you plus me is only two and none of these other gents seem too keen on lynching TDC.

I would rather see a lynch of a player who I find suspicious (Xtox) though may end up being town, rather than a player who I know for a fact is town (myself).


If Xtox flips scum (assuming he's lynched), TDC is the go-to scumbag partner. I've already discussed that and the only person who even attempted to dissuade such a notion was TDC... and even then, he didn't really put too much of an effort into it - maybe hoping it would fall by the wayside, akin to most of my points and postings.

That said, if Xtox flips town, the game is in your hands.

[TDC]

*shrug* I can't force you to.
It's just that I really can't imagine them BOTH being town (and hence, the scum team being RR+eld).
So, them both dying this day-night cycle would ensure there is another day (or we win the game right away).