Open 120 - Rebels in the Palace - Game Over! before 756

hohum · Post Post #275 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 6:50 am

Empking wrote:I want(ed) a random lynch. You want an arbitrary lynch.

I'd sure like you to explain mathematically what the difference is between random and arbitrary. The fact is I don't like you and I want you gone. If we're randomly lynching people why not you (or me for that matter)

hohum · Post Post #276 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:08 am

Well empking!?! I'm waiting! You're posting elsewhere so I know you see this.

Empking · Post Post #277 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:10 am

What do you want me to say?

hohum · Post Post #278 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:17 am

Empking wrote:What do you want me to say?

I want you to ask for a replacement.

Empking · Post Post #279 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:18 am

hohum wrote:
Empking wrote:What do you want me to say?
I want you to ask for a replacement.

Oh, stop being hostile and self vote.

hohum · Post Post #280 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:21 am

Empking wrote:
hohum wrote:
Empking wrote:What do you want me to say?
I want you to ask for a replacement.
Oh, stop being hostile and self vote.

Why don't you answer me scum? What's the difference in probability of scoring a scum hit in an arbitrary lynch vs a totally random lynch?

Empking · Post Post #281 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:23 am

hohum wrote:
Empking wrote:
hohum wrote:
Empking wrote:What do you want me to say?
I want you to ask for a replacement.
Oh, stop being hostile and self vote.
Why don't you answer me scum? What's the difference in probability of scoring a scum hit in an arbitrary lynch vs a totally random lynch?

Guard pick RL is 1/6
RL is 3/8

hohum · Post Post #282 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:24 am

and how did you arrive at those numbers? I don't think the math behind that is solid in the least.

Empking · Post Post #283 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:26 am

They are solid.

hohum · Post Post #284 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:27 am

Empking wrote:They are solid.

Then prove it. Shut up or put up. You've been pulling arbitrary numbers out of your ass all game long.

Empking · Post Post #285 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:37 am

Guard will not pick himself or guard. That leaves one out of six.
Do you need the second one explained to you as well or are you not a complete idiot.

Corvuus · Post Post #286 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 8:01 am

calm down guys.

EMP: asking for a self-vote is not nice.
Hohum: asking for him to be replaced is not nice.

---

Guards of course will try not to pick another guard but the fact is (open setup for evidence) the guards do not know who the other guards are initially.

I don't see anything from Zach that is a 'breadcrumb' or hinting that he is guard (or that the guards should try to derail his final random lynch, etc.) and looking through the overall game, the guards have apparently not verified but if they had, or if Zach had seen something that they had, then that would change things.

Zach may have already known? or he didn't want to risk it?

-----

Arbitrary voting is ok for discussion. The odds of hitting/lynching the king arbitrarily are not high at all but getting a reaction/response and a guard isn't bad.

-----

EMPking: you list 1/6 odds, when you say guard, do you mean king included in that (with no scum knowledge) or guard and another guard (with knowledge). because if guards and king know each other (3 scum) then, supposedly, they won't vote for each other and the odds won't be 1/6?

C

Trumpet of Doom · Post Post #287 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 10:54 am

Empking wrote:
Trumpet of Doom wrote:I get:

3/8 + (5/8 * 3/7)

= 21/56 + 15/56

= 36/56

= 9/14, which is almost 65%. Not quite the >80% that Emp's 45/56 is (how'd he get that number, anyway?), but still good enough for me to support random.

Naturally, I'd also support analysis, though.
Your number doesn't add us hitting two scum does it?

Yes, it does. Let's review: We're trying to catch at least one scum in two days. There are three ways this can happen:

We hit scum today (3/8) AND we hit scum tomorrow ( * 2/7)

OR ( + )

We hit scum today (3/8) AND we hit a rebel tomorrow ( * 5/7)

OR ( + )

We hit a rebel today (5/8) AND we hit scum tomorrow ( * 3/7).

Thus, P_{≥1 scum} = (3/8 * 2/7) + (3/8 * 5/7) + (5/8 * 3/7).

Now, watch carefully:

(3/8 * 2/7) + (3/8 * 5/7) = 3/8 * (2/7 + 5/7)
= 3/8 * 7/7
= 3/8 * 1
= 3/8

Substituting back into the original formula, we get P_{≥1 scum} = 3/8 + (5/8 + 3/7), which is what I put in the post you quoted. Make sense?

hohum, to Empking wrote:You've been pulling arbitrary numbers out of your ass all game long.

...um, I hate to burst your bubble here, but except for today, I've been the main one pulling numbers out of

anywhere

...

Do we want to random lynch or not? If we do, I'm fine with doing the dice roll, I'd just want to know if I should do tomorrow's as well as today's.

zwetschenwasser · Post Post #288 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 11:09 am

Hohum, this is not the place for stupid crap prejudices. Shut up with your Empking sucks BS and play the game.

TonyMontana · Post Post #289 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:51 pm

(5/8 * 4/7)
20/56 = 36% chance of us screwing ourselves [/high school dropout]
To
What if we agree on someone not being king? To try to help our odds alittle?

hohum · Post Post #290 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 1:36 pm

zwetschenwasser wrote:Hohum, this is not the place for stupid crap prejudices. Shut up with your Empking sucks BS and play the game.

Way to call me out long after the discussion has died out and I've received a mod warning for conduct. Trying to fan the flames, scum?

zwetschenwasser · Post Post #291 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 2:17 pm

Since when did this discussion die down? Since when are you the sole person to tell us that a discussion has died down? You never said you got a mod warning.

ortolan · Post Post #292 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 10:04 pm

[quote=TonyMontana (289)"](5/8 * 4/7)
20/56 = 36% chance of us screwing ourselves [/high school dropout]
To
What if we agree on someone not being king? To try to help our odds alittle?[/quote]

I agree. I would go with Corvuus because everything I've seen from him so far is very well justified and pro-town. If he was the king or a guard I don't think he would be so careful to determine the dominant strategy via probability.

Qanqan · Post Post #293 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 10:11 pm

[quote"TonyMontana"](5/8 * 4/7)
20/56 = 36% chance of us screwing ourselves [/high school dropout]
To
What if we agree on someone not being king? To try to help our odds alittle?[/quote]

Do you mean, randomly choose one person not to vote for in the hopes they aren't king, so we have a better chance of hitting the king? I'm really hoping not...

Qanqan · Post Post #294 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 10:12 pm

omg noo, my first broken quote tag

TonyMontana · Post Post #295 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 11:13 pm

Qanqan wrote:Do you mean, randomly choose one person not to vote for in the hopes they aren't king, so we have a better chance of hitting the king? I'm really hoping not...

No, I mean actually starting using analysis and strategy to play the game.

Qanqan · Post Post #296 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 11:57 pm

Ok, who do you think isn't king?

TonyMontana · Post Post #297 (ISO) » Wed Mar 11, 2009 12:02 am

Well, I happen to know for a fact that I'm not king.

Otherwise, I'd say Empking.

ortolan · Post Post #298 (ISO) » Wed Mar 11, 2009 12:39 am

Hey, you know what, I know for a fact I'm not king either

How about if all the rebels just reason based on that, then there's no chance of us losing!

Still think Corvuus is a better candidate for avoiding being selected than Empking

TonyMontana · Post Post #299 (ISO) » Wed Mar 11, 2009 1:07 am

ortolan wrote:Hey, you know what, I know for a fact I'm not king either

How about if all the rebels just reason based on that, then there's no chance of us losing!

It would be nice.
The point is that rolling dices isn't good strategy.

You chose to remove 4 people on a dice roll. It helped our chances barely.
4/12 Scum D1 = 33%
3/8 Scum D5 = 37,5%

1/12 King D1 = 8,3%
1/8 King D5 = 12,5%

Now we are 5 days in with no way to read anyone. I deem this strategy a failure.