Open 120 - Rebels in the Palace - Game Over! before 756

[Trumpet of Doom]

Not more than, though, which is what you just said in 247.

[Qanqan]

So are we random lynching or discussion lynching?

[Qanqan]

We have 9 players left, 2 are inactive/being replaced (although numberfourteen did vote on random lynch so I don't know why he is listed but at any rate) so technically that lives us with 7 players left in terms of 'voting'. If those 2 are town/rebels, then the remaining 7 will be 4 scum, 3 town; lylo with a majority of 5 to lynch. I.e. a misplaced townie vote (although, guards shouldn't have been able to confirm other guards so they shouldn't know and it be just as random luck if they do hope on a wagon) could lead to our loss.

On the flip side, if they're anti-town, thats 5 town, 2 scum.

Either way, I don't think we should suddenly drop our random lynching. It just opens us up for more manipulation.

Vote: Zachrulez

[ortolan]

Vote: Zachrulez

[Empking]

Vote: Zachrulez

[Corvuus]

ok.

Vote Zachrulez

C

[sekinj]

End of Day 4

(# of votes against) Voted Player - by Voter(s)

(0) BlakAdder
(0) Corvuus
(0) Empking
(0) Numberfourteen
(0) ortolan
(0) Qanqan

(5) Zachrulez - by Corvuus, Empking, ortolan, Qanqan, zwetschenwasser

(0) Trumpet of Doom
(0) zwetschenwasser

Finally, as the mob turns on it's fourth victim, Zachrulez tries to stand up for himself and says, "END ALL THIS MADNESS!!" but in reply the other players simply say, "Vote: Zachrulez." And in just a few hours Zachrulez is silenced forever... Never again shall this guard protect his King.

Mod Notes:
- Still seeking replacement for lurkers but losing hope...

[sekinj]

Begin Day 5!!

[Empking]

Random or analyse?

[Corvuus]

interesting. Zach, who was Shinnen, was the 'almost' quicklynch at the beginning of the game. Odds was that he wasn't the king, but he could still be a guard and turns out, he was.

Shinnen rvs'ed Lynx, who we know is town.
Shin's comments... don't really point to a guard or king connection.
Zach didn't like the Random scheme, but went along with it, and then when it got to his own lynch, tried to derail it. Had comments for EMPking and Zwet for this but in the end gave up.

There is a possibility, but I have to consider more.

At any rate, bottom line is, 2 guards and 1 king are left, thus we have an 'extra' day now. We could do a random list again (check probabilities?) or do discussion. 8 players, 3 scum, so 3/8 probability... and then odds of hitting the king (with 2 potentially inactive players) aren't good at all. So i'd favor discussion.

Corv

[Empking]

2 days

I get 45/56 that we hit at least one scum in those days.

[zwetschenwasser]

Too many numbers.. mind going numb...

[Trumpet of Doom]

I get:

3/8 + (5/8 * 3/7)

= 21/56 + 15/56

= 36/56

= 9/14, which is almost 65%. Not quite the >80% that Emp's 45/56 is (how'd he get that number, anyway?), but still good enough for me to support random.

Naturally, I'd also support analysis, though.

[Qanqan]

Too many numbers.. mind going numb...

Tell me about it

[Empking]

I added 3/8 to 3/7.

[sekinj]

TonyMontana replaces BlakAdder

[TonyMontana]

Greetings, rebels

[sekinj]

hohum replaces Numberfourteen

[Empking]

I get:

3/8 + (5/8 * 3/7)

= 21/56 + 15/56

= 36/56

= 9/14, which is almost 65%. Not quite the >80% that Emp's 45/56 is (how'd he get that number, anyway?), but still good enough for me to support random.

Naturally, I'd also support analysis, though.

Your number doesn't add us hitting two scum does it?

Vote: Random

[hohum]

If we're going to randomly lynch someone it might as well be someone totally worthless as a human being.

Vote: Empking

[Empking]

Vote: Hohum

- We're on page 11 and he's arbitrary voting.

[hohum]

nice OMGUS

[Empking]

OMGUS s voting someone without reason. I have good reason.

[hohum]

OMGUS s voting someone without reason. I have good reason.

You have a shit reason. You yourself are pushing for a random lynch.

[Empking]

I want(ed) a random lynch. You want an arbitrary lynch.