Mini 729 - WaTR Mafia - Game Over!

[tubby216]

Mod-Edit Votecount 3-2

Rhinox - 2 (Korts, freeko)

Not Voting - 5 (Vi, tubby, Rhinox, Raider, TonyMontana)

With seven alive, it takes four to lynch.

---

because i am lazy and a lil hopped up on pain killers my answers are in bold.

No raider, not entirely waiting for you, but I do view what you have to say as pretty important because what role information you have revealed is playing a large part on our assumptions and focus today.

Now seems like a good time to go back and look at tubby and his predecessors and see if there is anything more there than process of elimination.

Rogue Shenanigans:

0: picked the path. WIFOM ensues

1: Explains that later he wouldn't condone his action in post 0, but "its ok now because the mod said it didn't mean much". I feel this was a bit hypocritical - what gives RS the right to decide whats an important decision, and what isn't? What gives RS the right to decide what needs talked about and what doesn't? IMO, this limited conversation the town could have been having, and would have provided a different, better way to get the game going rather than just random voting like in every other game. Although I have no reason to believe that scum would or wouldn't pick the path, if I think in terms of limiting the town's conversation, then this becomes a point against RS. The question I have, that I can't get answered, is, is RS scummy for limiting the conversation, or was he just town who was thinking he was just making a decision to get into the game, and didn't realize that talking about picking which path would have been just as valuable, actually more valuable, than starting the game through the traditional random voting.

2: RV Korts

3: Scolds freeko for attacking him for choosing a path without discussion. My note here is just because RS says, /in before "You should have waited for us to talk about it", doesn't mean we should ignore that point and not discuss it. Just because you realize something you should have done, but didn't, it doesn't excuse you from not doing what you should have done.

4: Asks for forgiveness for starting "5 pages of debate over a choice that was stated unimportant by the mod." What I find interesting is that town or scum, RS should have realized that was exactly what was going to happen as a result of his rash decision. If RS=town, then I would imagine that the choice was intentional in order to spark exactly this conversation (similar to someone self-voting in the random stage - you know its going to be controversial, but you're doing it to start a discussion). RC's comment here makes me think he wasn't intending to have a conversation over his choice. I think the apology points more towards scum trying to be apathetic to appease the town. Apologizing for conversation and debate is not something town should do, IMO. Town should welcome all conversation as valuable in some way, shape, or form. Even if RS thought the decision was meaningless, that doesn't make the conversation about it any less valuable.

RS also says "I disagree that Occam was fishing. Or at least fishing WELL. He was just uselessly speculating on the setup and voicing his thoughts." If RS is scum here, he knows Occam is town :shrug: This seems kinda like playing both sides here - defending occam by disagreeing with the attack on Occam, while leaving room to vote Occam later for "uselessly speculating on the setup" if he wanted to. If RS is town, then he was just expressing his thoughts :shrug:

5: "Korts claimed scum.

Quicklynch go!" Joke? Legit bandwagon attempt? Fluff? who knows...

6: Explanation of the site being down

7: Insists his path choosing is null in every respect. Maybe he's right, but thats for the town to decide - its not null just because he says so.

8: "Was answering Prom King. Was defending his idea that I am more likley town... which I dont think is a healthy approach." Very interesting comment here. Speculation: RS-scum picked the path and tried to argue that it didn't matter if we talked about the choice or not, cuz it was meaningless. Just as RS was about to get past picking the choice, PK-idiotscumpartner chimes in trying to say how picking the path actually makes RS likely town. RS realizes that not only is PK's logic invalid, but its a pretty bad connection to each other. RS immediately downplays PK comments and calls them outright wrong.

Now, let me assume RS is town for a minute... If I'm town, I know I'm town, and I want the other townies to think I'm town, so I can not get mislynched and try to mislynch scum. If someone says they think I'm town, even for a reason I don't agree with, I would never say "no, thats wrong, you still have to assume I could be scum". Instead, I would keep that in the back of my head (why would that player think I'm town for that reason?) and keep my eye on that player, and be glad that I'm not being considered for lynch.

However, if you assume RS and PK are scum partners, then this makes complete sense. PK created a link to RS, RS realized it was potentially bad, and tried to destroy the link by debunking PK. Given PK's horrible play, I could imagine this is a ossibility. This would point towards tubby and vi being the remaining mafia.

Alternative explanation: RS scum, PK town. RS was trying to look like a good townie by not accepting being called town for bad reasons. Given PK's horrible play, I could imagine him coming up with bad reasons for calling someone town (i.e. his claim to clear freeko). RS was simply trying to score points by saying "hey wait a minute, that doesn't make me town", while leaving an opportunity to vote PK later for using bad logic.

9: Hops on LT bandwagon, says we can lynch korts-scum tomorrow. Is this scum jumping on a townie bandwagon, or just RS's playstyle to bandwagon every opportunity? RS never gave a reason for voting LT...

10: Says there is a reason for voting LT: "Enough of a bad read to be a place to take off my random korts vote." Also says he has no reason to think korts is scum. RS never expanded on his bad read of LT, as this was his last post before replacing out. This would indicate to me that RS had no reason, and was just opportunisticly jumping on the wagon.

Summary: Nothing I've read would make me think RS is town. Lots of stuff I could rationalize to be scummy. At best, my read on RS would be completely null - nothing pro-town at all, and absolutely no scum hunting. At worst, I can rationalize RS to be pretty scummy based on his few comments.


Megaflareon:

Only 4 posts. The only contribution being that he was undecided on the mason claim until PK confirmed or denied.

not responding to cases brought against those i replaced. I have no clue what they were thinking and refuse to do it because it would be pure speculation

tubby:

Tubby has more posts, so I'm not going to go through all of them here are a few I found interesting:

finished read on vi/pk

vi is town. I have been in enough games with vi to notice viscum and vitown this looks like vitown to me.

Does tubby know vi is town because of what he read, or does he know vi is town because he is scum and wants vi as a friend, or are they both scum? I'm thinking option B...

asked and answered see below

plus i knew vi was town with in his first page of posts, he has a tell and if i inform you of it his tell will dissapear

Vi says he's aware of this tell, so I think its time you tell the rest of us what this tell is.

no thats rude and i will not reveal his tell unless he changes his meta and i think its bad form of you to ask if you can't find it in the games i sited then too bad for you

vi i think i see why you want juls lynched,,

reading rihnox next

Accusing juls without any reason. Bussing?

ok so i read raider and nothing is setting of any alarms,

same with rihnox


but now onto juls,

I don't like how she was speculating over occum possibly being the shaepard, i especially don't like it after she made her full role claim, it doesn't make sense to me at all,

so
unvote: vote juls

The reasons for the vote on juls seem very weak to me. Looking back, I'm not sure I could view this as anything but bussing. Also, when did this opinion change. You though I was town, as well as raider, and you thought juls was scum. Well, juls was scum. Why are you now suspecting me? What changed your mind?

you posts are i believe are full of misdirection

no thats all i felt like typing, inbetween chasing kids and cleanin my house, i do have a life,,, well atleast my wife says i do
------------------------------------------
well chalk you up to the long list of women i have dissapointed,, the list is long but its distinguished

Tubby says he has more reasons for voting juls, but never provides them.

after a time...

i understand the wagon, but with the deadline looming an being lost in my own read i am reluctant to hammer, however i feel it also bad if we alow this to linger out. i believe the more this strectes out there worse off the town is.

This doesn't seem to fit. tubby was pretty sure Vi was town, and raider and I weren't setting off alarms, and he thought juls was scum. Now he says he's "lost" and afraid to hammer afatchic even though there is a deadline - but also submits that "stretching it out would be bad for the town". I get the feeling that tubby wanted someone else to hammer so he could avoid the responsibility of hammering someone he knows is town. I think he says he's "lost" in order to be prepared to today attack players he previously said he thought were town yesterday. Nothing about tubby's posts yesterday made me think he was lost in any way - he seemed pretty sure of his convictions.

no i was loat because i spent so much time on juls i neglected what everyone else was doing and i was a victim of my own tunnel vision

i say freeko or vi should watch, preferably vi

Either trying getting scumpartnervi to watch, or trying to be consistent with his earlier comment of being sure vi is town.

i would not be a good choice for watch

Already asked, but why not?

i felt that more people felt like vi was more town than i and rather than have someone question me and berate me for watching and nothing happened i figure it would be better if he or freeko did

the day started with rihnox being the top suspect

Why do you consider me the top suspect at the start of the day, when at the end of the day yesterday you didn't see anything to set off any alarms?

because between day 2 start and that post you kinda lit yourself on scummy fire

i do not like rihnox right now he seems a lil scummier than the rest

Reasons? anything other than this:

rihnox pressuring raider to full claim and ask what vi and freeko talk about during nite phase.

Either way, why do you consider that scummy?

because i do but more on you later can we just focus on me right now?? i mean is this a case on me? or a defense of yourself,?

Summary: tubby rarely gives reasons for his opinions, and many of his actions reak of opportunism IMO. I want to know what tell he found to call Vi town, as well as answers/comments to my other questions. Tubby is seeming like a pretty solid lynch choice to me.

wrong agian just wrong

[Korts]

I promise to post something soon, I've been generally a slacker recently. Posting this in all my games.

[Korts]

Well, actually no I'm not posting this anywhere else because I've recently caught up with the other two

[Rhinox]

Tubby, I'm a bit uninspired by your answers. Its fine for you to not answer for your predecessors - I didn't expect you to, because you don't know why they said the things they did. But your other responses still leave a lot to be desired:

no thats rude and i will not reveal his tell unless he changes his meta and i think its bad form of you to ask if you can't find it in the games i sited then too bad for you

This is almost enough for me to vote you by itself. If you use meta to call someone scum or town, you better be able to explain why. If you can't or say you won't, I'm assuming you don't have one and you're just BSing us. At best, not explaining your tell is only serving to preserve your meta read of Vi for future games, which is anti-town in this game. Also, Vi said this:

Perhaps not; I'm well aware of the obvious tell. If I were ever Mafia *cough* I would be able to work toward fixing it.

Seems the cat is already out of the bag... So... lets have it.

you posts are i believe are full of misdirection

orly? how? examples?

no i was loat because i spent so much time on juls i neglected what everyone else was doing and i was a victim of my own tunnel vision

That doesn't seem accurate to me. You read Vi and determined you though he was town. You read me and raider and concluded we weren't raising alarms. You made one post saying you thought you saw why Vi was voting Juls (why was that by the way?), and you only made one half way substantial post outlining a weak case against juls. No evidence of tunnelvision causing you to be lost.

i felt that more people felt like vi was more town than i and rather than have someone question me and berate me for watching and nothing happened i figure it would be better if he or freeko did

So we could question and berate someone else? Why are you afraid of being questioned?

because between day 2 start and that post you kinda lit yourself on scummy fire

orly? How?

because i do but more on you later can we just focus on me right now?? i mean is this a case on me? or a defense of yourself,?

Why must the 2 be mutually exclusive? I think you're pushing a BS and opportunistic case on me without supporting it, and that is a part of why I find you obvscum right now.

wrong agian just wrong

orly? I guess you saying so makes it so . Prove me wrong then. *tick tock*

[tubby216]

i think you are so scared of the lynch so you lash out on me. so that brings me to ask the question why? I believe its because you couldn't get anywhere with raider, and tm/korts would yield you no results and. attackin vi/freeko is pointless.

ok so you want my case on you stand by just remeber you asked i was content to leave you alone

[tubby216]

and on the vi matter,, her is the deal i sited the games i did the work i get the reward , i drew you a map if you can't figure it out i am not doing your work for you, reading is fundamental

also v1 will never admitt to being this so called scum that we try to hunt in these games we play, even if he wins as scum vi is not scum, duh

[Rhinox]

i think you are so scared of the lynch so you lash out on me. so that brings me to ask the question why? I believe its because you couldn't get anywhere with raider, and tm/korts would yield you no results and. attackin vi/freeko is pointless.

Right.. scared

Anyways, I don't think Raider is scum, and he has information that clears sheep aka tony and korts. You say I "couldn't get anywhere with raider" as if you think I was trying to get him lynched? That really couldn't be further from the truth. I believe there are 2 mafia left, and if its not raider, korts, to tony, then its you and one of vi or freeko. I don't believe both vi and freeko could be scum. Raider, though, suspects tony could be scum, and I'm interested to hear why, considering he is a claimed sheep. Lashing out is not what I'm doing. Whats a matter? Can't take a little pressure?

ok so you want my case on you stand by just remeber you asked i was content to leave you alone

hmmm... so you think I'm scummy, but you were willing to leave me alone until I started questioning you. This sounds absolutely nothing like what town should do, and also a bit like OMGUS.

FOS: tubby

with an intention to upgrade it to a vote pending what raider has to say this weekend.

and on the vi matter,, her is the deal i sited the games i did the work i get the reward , i drew you a map if you can't figure it out i am not doing your work for you, reading is fundamental

Sorry, but it doesn't work that way. You either got nothing, or you realize what you think you have is weak. Even if I had my own reads on Vi, I still want to know why YOU are so sure he's town. Preduce your evidence, or your reward will be my nice, shiny, black, bolded vote.

[tubby216]

I would go for path B. Rugged and up and over a hill doesn't seem so bad. Seems like wolves would have a hard time following. Also, on top of a hill, we'll have a better view of the surrounding areas. On the other hand, lake + small shore seems like we could get surrounded and backed into a corner with no escape pretty easily.

Seems like freeko is also an incompetent watcher. Doesn't tell me anything I wanted to know, however, because I did not want freeko to watch.

this was your first post, path "b" is not the path to choose rocks and mountains are good for goats not sheep, sheep would be slowed and have a hard time running away from attack, path "A" is the shore relatively easier for sheep to travel with the water at our back its less of an area to cover for watching, plus the path would be well traveled and better protected, all of this is neither here nor there since this al revolves around flavor.

ping 1 one on scumdar

Rhinox seems pretty keen on selling the idea of a mountain walk. Do you know something? (other then your profound flavour reasoning)

Nope, I don't know anything more than anyone else - I just didn't want korts to make the decision . As far as I can see, it doesn't really matter which way we go. We've had nothing happen as a result of direction so far, and I've seen no hints to say that anything special will happen this time. Somebody bold something so we can get on with the day.

-----------------------------------------

Also, Vi, Freeko, since we know Y'all are masons and what not, talk about anything fun and exciting during the night? I'm curious as to why Vi has freeko listed as the most town person besides himself...

-----------------------------------------

anyways, I'm going to go out on a small limb and speculate that there are either 2 mafia remaining, or 2 mafia + sk (I suppose 1 mafia + sk is also possible, but the only time I've seen a game with only 2 total mafia + 1 sk, it was insanely biased towards the town). On the flip side, 3 townspeople and a neutral are dead.

So, that means setup-wise, we're either at 5-2, or 4-2-1.

5-2) Not technically Lylo, but if there is a vig who was responsible for juls death, tonight would be a bad time to misvig if we don't lynch scum today.

4-2-1) Not a true lylo, but no good will come from a mislynch either. A mislynch + no crosskills at night is a mafia victory. A mislynch with mafia killing sk, and sk killing town is again, a mafia win. A mislynch with mafia killing town and sk killing mafia is a 2-1-1 crapshoot tomorrow. A mislynch with mafia killing sk and sk killing mafia is a not too bad 3-1 lylo. On the other hand, lynch sk still leaves us at 3-2 lylo tomorrow, while lynching mafia could put us anywhere from a 2-1-1 again, to a town win, depending on the crosskills.

In either case, its infinitely better to not mislynch today

I've already explained why I do not believe Korts is guilty - I do not think Juls was bussing him.

Similarly, the amount of time you spent voting juls makes me think you were not bussing juls - in other words, not guilty.

ok the speculation on set up seems like mis direction the other kill last nite is more likely a one shot vig or an inventor type role i would be seriously surprised if there were two kills tonite.the lylo talk is a scare tactic, if the direction in wich we went diddn't matter then why so agianst korts picking it?
but i do not like this post at all. its a kinda null tell at this point not all that scummy but not all that pro town either imo.

#860 and #873 trying to gain momentum for raider to cliam don't like it really don't like it

ping 2 and 3 on scumdar

Rhinox should know why I'm doing this. If he doesn't, that sounds like his own fault.

Otherwise, I don't see the point of holding a seperate vote on the subject. If you want a claim out of someone, convince the town of their scummyness.

Would you tell a cop on D3 (potentially) lylo not to claim even if they could confirm 2 innocents? That is essentially how I'm looking at this situation. I don't really think raider is scummy, but I think his claim could potentially clear 2 players + himself if it seemed like an honest claim. I could potentially see the claim resulting in 3 different scenarios:

1) Its completely solid and we all are fairly confident it proves sheep are town, which also indicates raider would be town as well.

2) It leaves some room for doubt, but seems like a valid claim. The sheep wouldn't be confirmed, but raider would seem likely town due to partially claiming to protect a sheep.

3) The claim sounds completely fabricated, and doesn't make sense at all for calling sheep town. Sheep allignment would be wifomy, but raider would be looking scummy for his earlier defending of the sheep.

Yesterday, I assumed scenario 1. I would like to believe scenario 1 is valid, making it very easy to decide who to vote today. I'm assuming scenario 2 is probably more likely. Without Raider's claim, its impossible to say which of the 3 scenarios are valid.

agian with the pressure to claim with out voting, its like trying to stirr a big pot of soup with out getting any on you. add in a lil lylo scare tactic for good measure and you get

ping number 4

then you get into a big disscussion with vi and freeko trying to defend yourself, then at the bottom of you attack me out of desperation and don't even vote me..

and for your last post yah vote me go ahead, but you are lookin in the wrong direction

and i'll even give you the reason of OMGUS for good measure

vote: Rniox

[Rhinox]

this was your first post, path "b" is not the path to choose rocks and mountains are good for goats not sheep, sheep would be slowed and have a hard time running away from attack, path "A" is the shore relatively easier for sheep to travel with the water at our back its less of an area to cover for watching, plus the path would be well traveled and better protected,

all of this is neither here nor there since this al revolves around flavor.

ping 1 one on scumdar

If the direction does not matter, why is my opinion on picking the path a ping on the scumdar?

ok the speculation on set up seems like mis direction the other kill last nite is more likely a one shot vig or an inventor type role i would be seriously surprised if there were two kills tonite.the lylo talk is a scare tactic, if the direction in wich we went diddn't matter then why so agianst korts picking it?
but i do not like this post at all. its a kinda null tell at this point not all that scummy but not all that pro town either imo.

The setup talk was not just misdirection. I too believe a vig kill is more likely than an sk, but it would not be wise to ignore the possibility. LyLo talk is not a scare tactic, nor is it meant to make me look more town. Unless you're saying that taking into consideration the earliest we might be in LyLo somehow helps the scum more than town I wasn't "so against" korts picking the path - it was more of a joke, and considering that the path doesn't seem to matter, neither does the choice - which is why I said anyone could bold whatever they wanted to. If you consider this a null tell and not that scummy, then why is it a ping on the scumdar?

#860 and #873 trying to gain momentum for raider to cliam don't like it really don't like it

I don't care if you don't like it. You or anyone else hasn't really given a good reason why raider shouldn't claim, I think I have a pretty good reason why he should, but whatever. Why is it scummy to ask raider to claim?

agian with the pressure to claim with out voting, its like trying to stirr a big pot of soup with out getting any on you. add in a lil lylo scare tactic for good measure and you get

Your analogy makes no sense. I for one have no trouble stirring soup and staying clean. But again, whats so scummy about asking raider to claim, and why is it a scare tactic that helps scum to mention that if we mislynch, we will probably be in LyLo tomorrow at best, and possibly in an unwinable scenario if there is an sk? At worst, sure, it is a scare tactic - a scare tactic intended to get the town to try extra hard to not mislynch today.

then

tubby

gets into a big disscussion with

rhinox

trying to defend

himself

, then at the bottom of

tubby

attacks

rhinox

out of desperation

and don't even vote me..

fix'd it for ya

Anyways, I'm not going after you out of desparation, I'm going after you because you're scum, assuming the assumptions I've been explaining all day. And I haven't voted you yet because I'm waiting for a post from raider about why he thinks tony might be scum.

and for your last post yah vote me go ahead, but you are lookin in the wrong direction

and i'll even give you the reason of OMGUS for good measure

vote: Rniox

Who's Rniox?

anyways, if I'm "lookin in the wrong direction", that sort of implies that you know I'm town and there is a better direction for me to be looking. Yet you vote me. If you think I'm scum, I wouldn't be looking in the wrong direction now would I?

So then, what exactly is the right direction? You're voting for me - surely I'm not going to take that direction and vote myself. Just makes me think that I'm already looking exactly right where I need to be.

Anyways, I think we're at a point where we can just keep going back and forth like this until our fingers bleed. I'm interested to hear what Vi, Korts, Raider, and Tony have to say about all this. I don't really care what freeko has to say

[Korts]

bleh. I just noticed how much text has been generated since I last properly looked here. Give me a few to catch up.

[freeko]

You or anyone else hasn't really given a good reason why raider shouldn't claim, I think I have a pretty good reason why he should,

Personally, I think its about time the mass claim game happened. Though that might be best left for the next game day. I can on the other hand give one reason why raider should not claim yet (acutally maybe 2). THere should be no reason to give extra information to scum to make an informed NK. Personally I think occam was nk'd for the sole reason that he said he could clear others (namely myself and Vi). Seems like raider would fall victim to the same were he to claim.

Then again I could be horribly wrong. Not like that hasnt happened so far a few times this game already?

[Rhinox]

If that were going to be the case, raider would be nked before claiming so we're left to speculate about his role and why he was calling sheep town. Once he tells us why he thinks sheep (well at least korts - for some reason theres a question about tony) then we'll already have the information.

Occam was nked before he was able to clear anybody :shrug:

[freeko]

then you get into a big disscussion with vi and freeko trying to defend yourself, then at the bottom of you attack me out of desperation and don't even vote me..

and for your last post yah vote me go ahead, but you are lookin in the wrong direction

and i'll even give you the reason of OMGUS for good measure

WTF.

unvote

]
tubby, why dont you give us some insight as to what direction we should be looking at. I dont think your slot has been under any suspicion the entire game. Mainly because its been vacant for most of it. But thats not really the point. Do you plan on offering Anything to the game except sniping at whoever the current target of choice seems to be? You only ever engaged 2 people so far this game. Myself and rhinox, and both occured when there were a good number opf votes against us. This is almost reason enough to look your way. Your interaction with me the last game day puts you over the top right now.

[raider8169]

Ok bear with me on this. As I dont have alot of time right this second but I will post the first parts of my thoughts as I have time.

The first thing that comes to find is the information I have been saying and how trustworthy it is. I overheard Occam talking to a sheep. So if what he says is trust worth then so if my information. The problem and I am not sure how to explain this is that he was only talking to a sheep. So I can only confirm that there is one sheep in the game. What was said is not really important anymore as Occam is dead. Korts admitted early to it and I said there was only one sheep in the game. The mod came on and tried to clarify that the opening kill was only flavor but it still fits along with everything. My thoughts is still that there is only one sheep but as there could be another Shepperd or something with sheep of their own I can not confirm this. From the roles that have already been revealed I do not think this to be the case. The problem now is that we have 2 people claiming sheep and I can only confirm one, it doesnt mean there are not more sheep but I do not think so. Korts admitted it without a counterclaim for a long time. Once it was announced that their could be another sheep we had another claim and the claim seemed more to be testing the waters to see if it would be an acceptable claim. Something scum might do but as I can not confirm it and bring this out would be saying more then I wanted but as we are getting closer and closer to lylo I would rather have this information out there in case I was killed and it might be of some help to the town. If it is ignored then so be it but at least it could be considered and that I think it important.

I will add more later, need to get working on my homework and wait for my daughter to stop attacking me.

Also on a side note, my work did an outing and we went skiing! I tried snowboarding for the second time in my life and though I did much better then the first time (which was a year ago) I am still in a lot of pain and do not feel like moving. That should help me do my review.

[tubby216]

look ok here is some content i guess.
my thoughts are this,

vi is town to me ( i discussed it with my wife and she called me an ass for not saying why) but when vi is seriously town he over uses his joke

daykill "insert player with dumb post here"

thing then after like day two he will drop it, if he uses it more than two or three times he's town.

korts is town because i believe his claim of sheep, its in the manner in wich he claimed it and something he eluded to. {its kinda like fight club rule #1,}

that leaves me with raider, untill your last post i was considering you to be some type of investigative role but now i am unclear


freeko and tm i am still uncler on, i am not really sure that vi's townness clears him by default, at times he is very town and others it screams scum to me. TM could very well be sheep as well but still unclear, in his other games i have seen when he is scum his posts are very short but as town he seems to type alot.

so those two i am on the fence about

rhinox seems most likely scum at this point i don'y like how he was pushing raider, i do not like how he wanted to see what vi and freeko talked about, i don't like his sudden focus on me,

so here is my recapp

town= vi, korts

scum: rhinox

unclear: tm,freeko,raider
i will try to reread and see about those i am unclear about hopefully have something by sunday nite

[Korts]

Note that a lot of this was written on a train without internet; only page 36 is loaded, so if I accidentally repeat any questions or accusations that were already answered on the next page please give me some slack. I try to remove those parts that would be simple repetition but I may not do a thorough job--I know I have the attention span of a stoned duck.

It was Juls first relevant post that had his PbPA breakdown of the players to that point, with a vote on PK (now Vi). Looking at that vote alone, after BSG (N2 NK target, and why I thought him to be scum as his 2 relevant actions in day 2 were against the pair of myself and PK/Vi) started the wagon rolling on PK witht ehfirst vote, Juls was soon to follow. The next relevant action is made by Rhinox, by saying that PK needs to claim. Followed by a small back and forth where Juls backtracks a bit and Rhinox on the next post drops his vote on PK. This is where the Juls/ Rhinox interaction is at its most obvious. They are tryingt to work to secure a mislynch of PK at this point. BSG is baarely playing at thispoint, so that vote is going to stay. I think if the game wasnt so bogged down by players not actively playing the game, they would have been sucessful on this attempt.

Now we know where Juls stanrds in this whole fiasco. It should be obvious by the interesations of the pair of Juls and Rhinox that they were working together to try to secure the mislynch of PK at the time. This is not a case of crazy ass coincidences like Vi could try to make on me. This is all here for everyone to see in all its glory with you Rhinox.

This is a very good point actually. Compare this to when they joined my wagon after Vi's extensive case, almost simultaneously and with little unique reasoning.

The next part of the puzzle is what set me off with korts. Korts comes in with a PK vote with the sole content other than the vote being "post or perish."

If you look at the time stamps, we'd been waiting on PK quite a while. My vote was to force him into contribution, assuming he was still reading the thread, while if he wasn't his lynch would still give information to the validity of your half-claimed connection.

Rhinox tries really, Really, REALLY hard to try to contort the situation (around the 360-370 post range now) into obv one of the two of us is scum.

I actually agree with the initial point Rhinox made here, and your reply was kinda wishy-washy, so his pressure on you for it was fairly valid.

those 3 because the others are me/korts and you/freeko. Seems like right now those are bad lynches. I think they still need to be dicussed but for the most part that has already happened. I did not get the support I wanted for the freeko lynch with you not going to vote him and the same with Korts. As I do not have all the time in the world like I wish I wil focus on them because that to me is the priority and I will go from there. I can understand why you may hate it because it does leave out 4 other people that would just be able to skate by. This is not the case though atleast not intended to be.

Why are you (were you) trying to win specifically Vi's and my vote? Do you want, perhaps, win round up the opinion leaders' support for your cause?

Also, for what it's worth, I'm getting increasingly pro-town reads off freeko. Vi is fairly pro-town as well, but his biased evidence against freeko seems odd.

See, this is where I start to have problems. Raider says he thinks sheep are town. Korts and tony are sheep. And now, raider says tony would be a good lynch choice... Why not Korts? Why is Tony a better lynch choice than korts?

I agree with the basis of your point, but the way you ask your question seems to me like you want to plant the Korts-scum thought in others.

In fact I agree with raider that Tony is more likely to be scum than me--naturally I'm biased What I mean is, his sheep claim came after raider confirmed there are likely two sheep total, and at the last second, when people were claiming sheep/not sheep and he had to make up his mind. A fakeclaim is feasible especially with how he retracted his claim (jokingly although to be honest I didn't see the joke in it initially).

** begin blatant sarcasm**
I think my new gimmick this day is to vote for you every time I make a post. Then again, someome clueless like fatso might think its a joke. Hah, there we go more random insults. Those are always fun. ** end blatant sarcasm**

I like you, you funny. (And finally you're not tunnel-visioning on

me

. It's relieving.)

********

Now, let me assume RS is town for a minute... If I'm town, I know I'm town, and I want the other townies to think I'm town, so I can not get mislynched and try to mislynch scum. If someone says they think I'm town, even for a reason I don't agree with, I would never say "no, thats wrong, you still have to assume I could be scum". Instead, I would keep that in the back of my head (why would that player think I'm town for that reason?) and keep my eye on that player, and be glad that I'm not being considered for lynch

Ugh. This is bad logic. Why do you assume that everyone would play like you as town? Me, I'd probably call them out. Hell, I can reference a game where Ectomancer specifically demanded of me why I exclude the possibility of

myself

bussing a known scum when I accused him of possibly bussing. Some players favor sensible logic over their own projected townness; I haven't played enough with RS to know how he thinks, but to assume he thinks the same as you is short-sighted and wrong.

Also, you stated that you had no intention of going after freeko today, but now, for the purposes of this part of the RS/tubby analysis you assume freeko's predecessor was scum? If you think he's scum, why don't you have any intention of going after freeko?

Does tubby know vi is town because of what he read, or does he know vi is town because he is scum and wants vi as a friend, or are they both scum? I'm thinking option B...

What leads you to believe the second option over the first one?

[qutoe="Rhinox"]Vi says he's aware of this tell, so I think its time you tell the rest of us what this tell is. [/quote]

You seem almost like you're eager to have something to refute, even though I share your general curiosity. I'm undecided on whether I actually want to know of this tell.

Accusing juls without any reason. Bussing?

Based on the comment, I conclude with your conclusion. Bussing is possible, although tubby is prone to lack of reasoning like so.

To be fair, Rhinox makes some fair points against tubby, but I get the feeling he's only doing it to avoid being lynched himself, and not out of a sense of duty to the town. Also, he apparently loves to keep arguing

Seeing raider's explanation of his plus knowledge, I think it's fair to conclude that either Tony is scum, or raider got only partial information. raider, why did you claim that you think there are

two

sheep?

[raider8169]

Seeing raider's explanation of his plus knowledge, I think it's fair to conclude that either Tony is scum, or raider got only partial information. raider, why did you claim that you think there are

two

sheep?

This is the part that I am unsure of, the term both was used and in the opening scene a sheep died. I think that the first sheep death counted towards the both and from what I overheard the conversation was to "a" sheep, I take that to mean one sheep is still alive. I wish I could say I am positive on that but I am not. This is why I think TM is a possible lynch for today.

[TonyMontana]

Once it was announced that their could be another sheep we had another claim and the claim seemed more to be testing the waters to see if it would be an acceptable claim.

Look, I was the one asking enough questions to find out the truth about your sheep claim. With good reason, seeing as to how it pertained to me.

TM could very well be sheep as well but still unclear, in his other games i have seen when he is scum his posts are very short but as town he seems to type alot.

I'm confused, are you saying I'm posting more than when I'm scum or less than when I'm town?
In any case, I love people who've barely played with me giving me worthless meta

I overheard Occam talking to a sheep. So if what he says is trust worth then so if my information. The problem and I am not sure how to explain this is that he was only talking to a sheep. So I can only confirm that there is one sheep in the game. What was said is not really important anymore as Occam is dead.

1. When did you overhear?
2. How did you overhear?
3. I don't think it's up to you to decide whether what was said is relevant.
4. I believe you, because what you claim fits with my role.

[raider8169]

1. When did you overhear?
2. How did you overhear?
3. I don't think it's up to you to decide whether what was said is relevant.
4. I believe you, because what you claim fits with my role.

Not sure what you mean why the when and how part. Well the how is that it is part of my role but unless I fully claim I can not really say more. I heard it while he was still alive and before he disappeared. I am not sure what triggered it if something did. As far as what is relevant or not, I can answer this by saying it is not relevant because Occam is no longer alive. I did not know I was listening to Occam at the time or anything like that. Had Occam claimed I would have been able to confirm his role or at least that the role existed.

[Korts]

Hmm. I've had some things clarified.

In, I think, a similar way to how raider gained knowledge of the sheep, I got the information that Rhinox is responsible for the Occam shepherd's death. It is from a reliable source.

That is, pretty much, all I can say.

So I'd really like a Rhinox lynch right now.

[tubby216]

@tm what i am saying is you post less and your posts are smaller when you are scum, you put more detail in as town

[Rhinox]

OK, I'm a bit confused now.

I overheard Occam talking to a sheep. So if what he says is trust worth then so if my information.

First question: Did the sheep talk back, or did you only hear Occam?

What was said is not really important anymore as Occam is dead.

Even though you say this, I would like to know what was said, unless it gives away information about roles that you don't want to reveal. I would prefer to decide for myself what is important information and what is not.

All that being said, you knew that Occam was a shepherd before his role was revealed. Either you got extremely likely, or you're being honest with us (so far). Doesn't necessarily mean your role is pro-town, but I would doubt scum would be willing to share so much information with us (but maybe thats what you want us to think... yada yada yada)

Also on a side note, my work did an outing and we went skiing! I tried snowboarding for the second time in my life and though I did much better then the first time (which was a year ago) I am still in a lot of pain and do not feel like moving. That should help me do my review.

Yay skiing . I've been skiing for, wow 7 years now. (2 boards are better than 1, IMO ) First time out was a very horrible experience. I'd have never gone again if I hadn't purchased a package of 8 lift ticets, rentals, and lessons through my school's ski club. Glad I stuck with it because now I'm pretty good and its what keeps me looking forward to winter every year.

P.S. You have your location listed as Upstate NY. Just wondering where you go to ski? I learned at Holiday Valley in Ellicotville - Still my favorite place to go. Living in Ohio now, and there's no hills so I didn't get to ski much this year.

/sidetracked

vi is town to me ( i discussed it with my wife and she called me an ass for not saying why) but when vi is seriously town he over uses his joke daykill "insert player with dumb post here" thing then after like day two he will drop it, if he uses it more than two or three times he's town.

Thats awfully weak, IMO. I s'pose it doesn't necessarily make you scummy. I have no problem with your conclusion that Vi is town, but not if thats all your basing it on.

rhinox seems most likely scum at this point i don'y like how he was pushing raider, i do not like how he wanted to see what vi and freeko talked about, i don't like his sudden focus on me

Please answer these 3 questions:

1) Why was me asking for a claim/further information from raider scummy?
2) Why was it scummy to ask what Vi and Freeko talked about at night?
3) Why am I not allowed to focus on you?

I agree with the basis of your point, but the way you ask your question seems to me like you want to plant the Korts-scum thought in others.

Thats not it at all. Actually, I'm trying to do exactly the opposite. I'm looking for solid evidence to call you town so I can stop worrying about you. Because right now, you think I'm scum, and I know I'm town, so I don't know if you're town who legitimately finds me scummy, or scum just trying to get me lynched. In general, your play seems mostly town to me, and your sheep claim seems more as a result of a town slip (as opposed to a scum slip), but the way you've been mostly after me for the better part of 2 days now is causing me to have doubts.

Ugh. This is bad logic. Why do you assume that everyone would play like you as town? Me, I'd probably call them out. Hell, I can reference a game where Ectomancer specifically demanded of me why I exclude the possibility of myself bussing a known scum when I accused him of possibly bussing. Some players favor sensible logic over their own projected townness; I haven't played enough with RS to know how he thinks, but to assume he thinks the same as you is short-sighted and wrong.

You're absolutely right. But I wasn't trying to say "RS is scummy because...", it was more of a "If RS was scum, how can I rationalize his actions to be scummy; if RS was town, how can I rationalize his actions to be pro-town". It was purposefully speculation, and not meant as part of a case - more of a just a check on RS's play to see how much of his play should affect my read on tubby. In my conclusion, I said that my read on RS was basically null, but I could rationalize it more to be scummy than pro-town. All that tells me is that I can investigate tubby on his own, without any preconditions based on his predecessors' play. (whereas, if I'd have gotten strong scum or town vibes on RS, those would have to be taken into consideration when looking at tubby). I hope that makes sense.

Also, you stated that you had no intention of going after freeko today, but now, for the purposes of this part of the RS/tubby analysis you assume freeko's predecessor was scum? If you think he's scum, why don't you have any intention of going after freeko?

ummmm... Freeko doesn't have a predecessor, so what exactly are you saying here? None of my RS/tubby analysis said anything about freeko.

What leads you to believe the second option over the first one?

Because of his "Vi is town cuz of meta", and refusal to share details of said meta. Made me think he was using "meta" as a BS reason, knows vi is town, and is trying to buddy. Now that tubby has provided his reason, it becomes null because I don't think his reason is good enough for me to call option A more likely (that tubby knows Vi is town because of what he read).

You seem almost like you're eager to have something to refute, even though I share your general curiosity. I'm undecided on whether I actually want to know of this tell.

You guys are really getting me all turned around in this game. If someone tries to clear someone through meta, its seems logical to me to verify why so we know we're not being BSed. It doesn't mean I just want to refute something. Lets look at this another way. Hypothetically, what if tubby told us Vi was scum because of meta and voted him. Would you condone this action by tubby, or would you want to know the details so you could know why?

To be fair, Rhinox makes some fair points against tubby, but I get the feeling he's only doing it to avoid being lynched himself, and not out of a sense of duty to the town. Also, he apparently loves to keep arguing

Yes, I do love to argue. You kinda have to if you wanna play this game.

But I don't think you're being very fair... a number of players suspected me at the start of the day. Should I just sit here in the fetal position doing nothing but defend myself until I eventually have to claim, or should I keep scumhunting and try to find out who's really scum? Players get lynched for the former, usually when someone say's "you're not interested in scum hunting, only defending yourself". Well, I'm scumhunting, and you say "you're only trying to find someone else to lynch and prevent your own".

A couple things: 1: I think I have been clear since the start of the day I suspected tubby the most, and was looking for information from raider to verify my assumptions for coming to that conclusion were valid. I haven't really wavered from that. So, I don't think my actions have been consistent with an "anybody but me" attitude. 2: Self-preservation is not a scum tell. It supports my win condition as scum or town to not be lynched. It is up to you to decide if in acting in self preservation, I'm just trying to get anyone lynched, or if I'm trying to get scum lynched. If you refer to #1, I think you'll see I'm trying to get scum lynched.

In, I think, a similar way to how raider gained knowledge of the sheep, I got the information that Rhinox is responsible for the Occam shepherd's death. It is from a reliable source.

OK, forget everything I just said. Korts is scum.

vote:korts

I am a

Trail Guard

. I was hired by a lord who owns the woods you all are traveling through, and my job is to protect the groups passing through.

I am a limited shot vig - I don't know the limit. My weapon is my trusty pike, which is aparantly not so trusty because it breaks into pieces after a number of uses.

breadcrumbs:

I agree that freeko is acting very scummy. Since the masons are unconfirmed, theres no reason to believe that freeko can't be scum. I agree with Juls that ever since Vi replaced in, freeko has been acting like he thinks he's bullet proof.

Part of me wants to hold a gun.. er.. a pike rather up to his head right now to see if his confidence holds

(that was artistic liscense for me saying I'm considering voting him for his scummy role fishing he's been doing, and his overconfidence he's been displaying since Big Brother Vi (or sister... god, I feel so stupid but i don't think I've ever known which.. do you have a preference as to which pronoun gender we call you by Vi? I'm assuming sister would be the appropriate one since you said 80lbs is almost all of your weight... unless you're a really skinny 12yo boy Razz) came in and backed him up. However, we've already got all we can get out of pressuring freeko by votes, so I would only vote him now if I was intending to lynch him.

later...

@korts: if you really think the setup is 2 mafia + sk, then yes, it basically is LyLo. A mislynch today would mean that can't win without help from crosskills. However, I doubt that we have an sk, and I don't agree with your analysis on flavor for why you believe there is an sk. For one, you say a stabbing sounds like an sk. That would be a knife, or

some other sharp, piercing weapon*, yes?

What would a vig use? Normally, I would think a gun. But, my own interpretation on the flavor is we're a town in a time before guns, so

what other weapon* could a vig possibly use?

If you really think about it, I think the signs are pointing to that kill on Juls being made by a vig and not an sk. Doesn't rule out the presence of an sk, however. But IMO, if we have an sk among us, they have yet to make a successful kill.

Notice the *'s in the last post? well, they were a signal specifically meant for Vi to understand. In my last game with Vi, I used * to mark that I was gambiting. Well I was really hoping Vi was town now and got my message. I think this means he did:

A note on defense - The vote on Rhinox was in large part for pressure's sake, because that appeared to be the

only way to get him to RT*T

(or at least that was the way that would work best in my one-dimensional worldview).

I didn't use my ability at all night one, because of being limited to an unknown number of uses, and not wanting to waste my uses and accidentally hitting town. I killed Juls night 2. I wasn't entirely sure she was town, but I wanted to use my ability because we already had 2 mislynches, and I would be able to vig without causing the town to lose, and provide information to the town based on Juls death, and at worst give the town better odds at hitting scum today by removing a player from consideration. I was also putting some trust into Vi's belief that Juls was scum. Since Juls was scum, thats what caused me to believe Vi was town and use my * signal, desperately hoping Vi would pick it up.

When freeko started calling out my connections to juls, I said there was some irony in there. Ironic, because I actually killed Juls.

I can't guarentee I can kill tonight, which is why I'm claiming now. Claiming now gives us 100% chance of lynching korts-scum, where there is less than that chance of me being able to vig scum tonight, let alone vig at all.

So, as RS said so early in the game...

"Korts claimed scum

quicklynch gogogo :arrow:"

Well, it doesn't have to be quick, but we do have to lynch korts.


[sidejoke to vi] Yes, I know I'm asking you to suspend your disbelief that I can really be a vig and not an sk yet again - what is this, the 3rd time now in our 4 games together? [/joke]

[Rhinox]

EBWOP: forgot, another tidbit of a breadcrumb:

Freeko, how am I connected to Juls? I don't recall you saying anything similar to that yesterday - All I heard you say is Korts needs to die. Now, you're agreeing with korts that I'm likely scum? Why do I get the feeling you're more likely just a scum curious

if I'm the one who vigged juls,

rather than you actually think I'm scummy or connected to Juls?

Bolded part was supposed to be seen as a slip that I "knew" Juls was vigged, and not killed in some other way. The only way I would know that is if I were a vig.

[Rhinox]

EBWOP again:

forgot to add my win condition to the post:

I win when the town traveling party can't be harmed by the anti-town forces - my lord who hired me sends me to the guillotine to lose my head if this becomes impossible.

I assume the interpretation to mean if the scum gain a majority, I lose.

Remember early on when I was talking about out speculative 2nd win condition (making it alive to D6?) and how it could be possible for some town members to make it to the town on D6 even if the scum gain a majority? well, that doesn't apply to me, because I'm not traveling with the town. If I can't prevent the scum from harming the town (prevent the scum from attaining a majority), I lose (my head!).

[Korts]

Hmm. Your claim is plausible. However it's not that hard to set up--the pike thing may not have been relevant, and the second piece of evidence was after, from the night kill flavor, it had been apparent what you need to claim. Also even if you're really the cause of that kill you may still be scum with a one-shot vig in addition--knowing my role I think that's quite possible.

Here's my offer. I still think Rhinox is scum; hell, I'm convinced 100%. I don't want him to nightkill tonight. So lynch Rhinox today, lynch me tomorrow if he turns out to be what he claims to be-which he won't. A 1:1 trade is very good even at this point.