Open 120 - Rebels in the Palace - Game Over! before 756

[Lynx The Antithesis]

Still here. Got a macroeconomics midterm tomorrow so my postings gonna be limited. I should be more active either tomorrow or saturday.

[zwetschenwasser]

Corvuus, are you saying that we should trust the lurkers? That doesn't sound right at all...

[Corvuus]

'trust'? I don't see how trust enters into it if it is just 4 random d12 roll.

if anything, it will get people to stop 'lurking/inactive' and actually post or do something.

Otherwise, I don't see what we are 'waiting' around for. The lurkers/inactive may stay that way, the 'active' people may just nitpick each other to death, etc. etc.

We are 'stagnating' and I think we need to do something to get some discussion going and it might as well be 4 random people put on the block.

Corv

[zwetschenwasser]

The chopping block?

[Trumpet of Doom]

There you all go making me do work again. I'm not going to definitely support random lynches until I know our chances of success with them... I'm on page 9 of a slightly-over-15-page Word document, though, so it might take a while.

[sekinj]

Vote Count 7

(# of votes against) Voted Player - by Voter(s)

(0) Wall-E
(0) BlakAdder
(0) orangepenguin
(0) Corvuus
(2) Empking - by Lynx the Antithesis, Numberfourteen
(1) Lynx The Antithesis - ortolan
(0) Numberfourteen
(0) ortolan
(1) Qanqan - afatchic

(2) Zachrulez - Citytube, Empking

(0) Trumpet of Doom
(0) zwetschenwasser

Seven (7) votes to Lynch.

Mod Notes:
- orangepenguin replaces Citytube.
- Wall-E replaces afatchic.
- Seeking replacement for the following lurkers: BlakAdder, Numberfourteen, ortolan

[Empking]

This is who I'm voting feel free to join me.

P01 - Wall-E (afatchic)
P02 - (BlakAdder)
P03 - orangepenguin (Citytube)
P04 - Corvuus
P05 - Empking
P06 - Lynx The Antithesis (erikw11)
P07 - Zachrulez (Shinnen_no_Me, Magus_Stragus)
P08 - (Numberfourteen)
P09 - (ortolan)
P10 - Qanqan
P11 - Trumpet of Doom
P12 - zwetschenwasser

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (8) = 8

Original Roll String: 1d11

1 11-Sided Dice: (11) = 11

Original Roll String: 1d10

1 10-Sided Dice: (8) = 8

Original Roll String: 1d9

1 9-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[Empking]

Unvote

Vote: Wall-E

[Corvuus]

well, putting that I asked you not to roll aside for now, I also don't know how to interpret your roll since you remove a 'd' after each roll.

So the first roll is obviously Wall-E, the rest.... are the numbers = players (in which case the higher numbered players were not in it) or are the numbers shifted by when we remove wall-E.

i.e. Wall-E, EMPking, BlakAdder, Corvuus (numbers excludes bottom playerlist)

or

Wall-E, Lynx, Orangepenguin, ZachRulez. (i remove player from previous list).

Other than that clarification, I'd like people's response/reaction.

C

[Empking]

Second

[Zachrulez]

I assumed it was the second list.

[Corvuus]

Ok, so that is what a random list would look like.

8 rebels, 4 scum (1 is king). The odds of hitting a guard (I will treat king as normal scum but killing king is autowin) is 4/12 or 1/3. and, as I pointed out earlier, the worst case is the case to consider where we miss 'all 4 days' in a row. i.e. scum stay at 4, rebels drop by 1 each time.

The chance of this occurring is 4/12 for day 1, 4/11 for day 2, 4/10 for day 3, 4/9 for day 4. So 1/3 chance of hitting scum day 1, and the odds improve if we 'keep missing' and day 4 is 4/9 (almost 45%-ish). So it is basically 4 rolls to see if we hit scum with each roll being at least 33% and up to 45%-ish.

Overall, the odds of getting at least 1 guard on the above list, is fairly good. Getting the king on the list is so-so, while having 4 townies/rebels on it would be extremely unlucky.

I do think the order should still be randomized again, but at any rate, this is what Random lynching would look like. Let's set aside the issue for now and have discussion, comments/reactions first and only do the list if we get close to deadline/no progress forward.

If you have any questions or comments, say them now, otherwise I don't want to hear about random lynching anymore.

Corv

[Lynx The Antithesis]

Ok I'm back. Frankly speaking, I don't exactly know how the dice works. Are we hypothetically using the first or second list?

I don't know how we're gonna gain anything from simply using the random rolls. If we don't actually go through with the lynches then I don't see how we can gauge people's reactions or reponses. No guard is going to overreact about seeing the king's name when he knows that there is a possibility that the town won't go through with these. So if we're gonna do this I don't think we should dance around it.

Afatchic never really progressed into the serious mode of the game. So if he turned up Guard I'm not really sure how many connections we could draw between him.

Wall-E, how do you feel about being lynched first?

[Lynx The Antithesis]

Ok I'm back. Frankly speaking, I don't exactly know how the dice works. Are we hypothetically using the first or second list?

I don't know how we're gonna gain anything from simply using the random rolls. If we don't actually go through with the lynches then I don't see how we can gauge people's reactions or reponses. No guard is going to overreact about seeing the king's name when he knows that there is a possibility that the town won't go through with these. So if we're gonna do this I don't think we should dance around it.

Afatchic never really progressed into the serious mode of the game. So if he turned up Guard I'm not really sure how many connections we could draw between him.

Wall-E, how do you feel about being lynched first?

[Lynx The Antithesis]

Ah double post.

Mod

, can you delete one of those posts?

Corvuus, if we hit a guard on a random lynch, do you think we should just keep going with the random lynchings? Or should we stop there it there and work off that scum?

[Corvuus]

No, we would stop from 'mindlessly' following the list and discuss several of the possible results gained.

I don't want to say more than that.
----------------

Even if the list is hypothetical/never carried out, at least:

1. People will stop debating who rolls, what random, what is the probability, etc. etc. and waste more posts on something we should have finished with already. I just showed and told them, so no more 'fluff' activity posts on nothing.

2. For all we know, all 4 on the list could be guards, a king or any other variation. Heck, all 4 could be townies. Once people see the list, they may alter the list, change their minds, shift their votes, etc. etc. it just requires time and discussion and it could tell us alot or tell us nothing. Either way, we will talk about something.


C

[Numberfourteen]

Vote Wall-e

[BlakAdder]

Sorry. Kinda busy right now, but thoughts are coming tonight.

[Trumpet of Doom]

There was a somewhat similar discussion in one of my other games, where someone brought up the point that it's hard to do any meaningful discussion if the lynch is a foregone conclusion. So even if we hit a guard or the king in the next four days, if we choose the lynches now, we won't be able to glean much from what's happened because there won't be much to discuss. And now, back to number-crunching.

(For the record, though, I checked the probability. [(4/12) + (8/12 * 4/11) + (8/12 * 7/11 * 4/10) + (8/12 * 7/11 * 6/10 * 5/9)] x 100% = 85.86% chance of hitting some form of scum if we random lynch for the next four days, which is better than a 6 in 7 chance (85.71%). I'm merely against the idea that hitting scum would be more beneficial in terms of discussion potential if we random lynch than if we discuss and build real, supported wagons on people who are doing scummy things.)

Speaking of people who are doing scummy things:

Vote Wall-e

Mod announces #14 will be replaced for lurking (in fairness, this game does have unusually strict activity requirements). He gets on and just posts this. No voiced opinions either way, just a vote that, to me seems like "here, let me skate through this by posting as little as possible and being on whatever bandwagon looks most likely to lead to a lynch"... I don't like it. Therefore,

Vote: Numberfourteen.

Also, welcome to the game, Wall-E! And orangepenguin, too... sorry I missed you when sekinj announced it the first time.

[zwetschenwasser]

Cmon, folks. If we're going to let scum manipulate us into not sticking to either the random lynch or the non-random lynch plan we should just ditch it. If we want to not let scum manipulate us we should go through with the random lynches.

Vote: Wall-e

[Trumpet of Doom]

I've finally finished the calculations.

Without considering the possibility of a random lynch hitting the king when town exactly equals scum (since it won't work - a full majority can't happen), otherwise random lynches have rebels winning ~

65.63%

of the time, guards/king winning ~

26.20%

of the time, and the game coming down to the king and one rebel ~

8.63%

of the time (happily ever after). Yes, I realize the percentages don't equal 100%; blame it on rounding.

I'll probably get everything up on the wiki later tonight or tomorrow at some point, so if people want to look at my process and check it, they can. In the meantime, since random lynches have a >65% probability of winning,

Unvote; Vote: Wall-E.

[zwetschenwasser]

Yay! We have one smart person int he house.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Numbers are posted to the wiki. For those who want to look, the page name is (without quotes) "Assassin in the Palace/Rebels in the Palace Numbers".

[Empking]

Ha, hadn't noticed that scum needed a majority rather than equaling. Yeah, scum were really bad.

[ortolan]

Hi guyth!

No need to replace me sekinj and I am sorry for WIFOMing you into wondering whether I need to be.

Here is the knowledge I've acquired from my recent read-through:

Corvuus is likely town for Post 24 alone.

Random voting could work. The only problem I see is that the gaurds and king will obviously not kill the king. So day 1 we 8 people who will vote for the king, and we would have to get 7 of them to agree. So if we random vote there is a good chance to hit rebel because 11 people will vote for a rebel, and only 8 will vote for the king... I am not sure that this makes alot of sense. I also do not see any better strategy really, like lynx said. There is only so much information we can gain because nobody really has any info to give away in this game.

This is precisely a reason to make the voting *genuinely* random via dice or somesuch.

With your setup speculation in Posts 29 and 33 also it would have been far easier to simply ask the mod as this is an open setup. I pm'ed the mod asking if it was nightless (which I couldn't find in the rules), which she confirmed. pm the mod if you don't want to do so publicly, which is understandable as I have been lynched partly (and stupidly) for asking questions of the mod openly in open setups before, due to the argument that scum would feign ignorance of an aspect of their roles.

I don't get why anyone would want to break a setup, I think it's stupid... where's the fun in it?

Many would interpret this is as a scum-tell, although I personally wouldn't. It is generally accepted that you play to win however, this certainly includes breaking setups when the facilities are provided for you to do so.

Unvote

Vote: Shin

- for this post:

Poor guards and king

which seems like he's distancing from the scum team

This is a poor argument against Shin but probably not a scum-tell for Empking

unvote
vote shinnen_no_me

I didn't sign up to be badgered to try to break the game. Especially by someone who must be hiding something, since their join date is less than a week ago but is obviously a seasoned player. Weird that a replacement player in this game has a site join date more recent than the game start, no?

What?

Whether he is an alt or not has no bearing on whether it is scummy or not to try to break the game, which it very decidedly isn't.

To all people complaining about "breaking setups", please do not play in open setups if this is an issue for you. It's half the point. Play in a mini normal (or mini theme) instead if you want less knowledge about the setup, which in turn leads to it being less likely to being discussed and less likely to be broken if the potential exists.

I still do not see the reason for random killing, I do not think it is a viable strategy. If the way we chose the victim each day was truley random, say with a dice roll, or sosomething of that nature, then it would be a pretty good strategy. But as it stands, the "random" vote will be picked by the players, 4 of which definently will not vote the king. It would not be random at all, and you would have to get 7 of the eight remaining players to agree on who to lynch, while 4 other would be pushing for other players.

Yah, a dice roll is perfectly easy to do, don't worry.

I want to vote shin, I really hate self voters, but I don't want to screw the replacement

Why do you hate self-voters?

From ~Posts 125, we definitely should wait prior to random-lynching. This setup isn't like assassin in the palace- we don't have that much to lose from mislynching really and we don't have a king to protect. So we can discuss things as much as we like.

[quote"Zachrulez (141)"]If you are a guard or the king, and you're rolling all the dice for our "random lynches" I think we can be pretty certain that the "dice roll" is never going to land on the king. (Unless you're going to try to convince us that you wouldn't play to your win condition in the case of hypothetically not being a rebel.)[/quote]

No. As far as I'm aware a dice roll is random when posted and cannot be messed with, otherwise it displays the result "fixed".

where someone brought up the point that it's hard to do any meaningful discussion if the lynch is a foregone conclusion.

I've finally finished the calculations.

Without considering the possibility of a random lynch hitting the king when town exactly equals scum (since it won't work - a full majority can't happen), otherwise random lynches have rebels winning ~

65.63%

of the time, guards/king winning ~

26.20%

of the time, and the game coming down to the king and one rebel ~

8.63%

of the time (happily ever after). Yes, I realize the percentages don't equal 100%; blame it on rounding.

I'll probably get everything up on the wiki later tonight or tomorrow at some point, so if people want to look at my process and check it, they can. In the meantime, since random lynches have a >65% probability of winning,

Unvote; Vote: Wall-E.

Those odds are too good to pass up, I shouldn't have even bothered with a re-read

Vote: Wall-E