Mini 729 - WaTR Mafia - Game Over!

[TonyMontana]

There's 3 scenarios I would want raider to claim in.
1. He is facing a lynch.
2. A sheep is facing a lynch.
3. A third person claims sheep.

Otherwise, I don't see the point of holding a seperate vote on the subject. If you want a claim out of someone, convince the town of their scummyness.

---

Mod-Edit Votecount 3-1

Rhinox - 1 (Korts)

Not Voting - 6 (Vi, tubby, Rhinox, Raider, freeko, TonyMontana)

With seven alive, it takes four to lynch.

[tubby216]

There's 3 scenarios I would want raider to claim in.
1. He is facing a lynch.
2. A sheep is facing a lynch.
3. A third person claims sheep.

Otherwise, I don't see the point of holding a seperate vote on the subject. If you want a claim out of someone, convince the town of their scummyness.

so are you callin out other sheep??

you want all sheep to claim or you just want raider to claim if there is another sheep out there

[TonyMontana]

I'm just saying in the event that if another sheep was to claim, that would be a reason for raider to claim what kind of info he has, considering he has already claimed knowledge of there only being 2 sheeps in the game.

[Vi]

I sense TonyMontana is protecting something~
Nonetheless, there's some sense behind his plan. *shrug*

Rhinox should know why I'm doing this. If he doesn't, that sounds like his own fault.

Vote: Rhinox

(L-2)

[Rhinox]

Rhinox should know why I'm doing this. If he doesn't, that sounds like his own fault.

Otherwise, I don't see the point of holding a seperate vote on the subject. If you want a claim out of someone, convince the town of their scummyness.

Would you tell a cop on D3 (potentially) lylo not to claim even if they could confirm 2 innocents? That is essentially how I'm looking at this situation. I don't really think raider is scummy, but I think his claim could potentially clear 2 players + himself if it seemed like an honest claim. I could potentially see the claim resulting in 3 different scenarios:

1) Its completely solid and we all are fairly confident it proves sheep are town, which also indicates raider would be town as well.

2) It leaves some room for doubt, but seems like a valid claim. The sheep wouldn't be confirmed, but raider would seem likely town due to partially claiming to protect a sheep.

3) The claim sounds completely fabricated, and doesn't make sense at all for calling sheep town. Sheep allignment would be wifomy, but raider would be looking scummy for his earlier defending of the sheep.

Yesterday, I assumed scenario 1. I would like to believe scenario 1 is valid, making it very easy to decide who to vote today. I'm assuming scenario 2 is probably more likely. Without Raider's claim, its impossible to say which of the 3 scenarios are valid.

[Vi]

Rhinox should know why I'm doing this. If he doesn't, that sounds like his own fault.

Reread 866, and 850 if you have to.

[Rhinox]

Rhinox should know why I'm doing this. If he doesn't, that sounds like his own fault.

Reread 866, and 850 if you have to.

aha... sorry bout that, I thought I already answered your question.

Early in the day, when you listed the order of who you thought was scummy, you had freeko listed as least scummy, besides yourself. I didn't get the sense yesterday thats where you had him listed in your scum reads, so I thought maybe there was something in your night conversation to push freeko so low on your list of suspisions.

That reminds me of a question: I would like you to expand a bit on this comment you made after listing your night conversation with freeko:

As I typed this, I saw two things that just pushed freeko up from the bottom of my scumlist. Could it really be coincidence...?

You made this comment, but didn't reveal what you saw, or ask any questions, or otherwise pursue any actions relating to this comment. What two things are pushing up your suspicions of freeko, and why aren't you questioning freeko about them?

[freeko]

so I thought maybe there was something in your night conversation to push freeko so low on your list of suspisions.

Vi thankfully left out most of the good insults that I had written when the summarry of our discussion was posted before. Aside from those omissions, I can verify that was a pretty good indication of what we conversed about. My thinking is that I wasnt too heavy on juls, as I asked vi for a clarification. The second is that I also mentioned that I think I could have made a case against Vi or BSG in the last post I made as well. Being neither of us actually ever asked each other about our alignments, who knows.

What makes it all so humorous to me is how horribly horribly wrong I was at the end of day 2. About the only thing I got right was that neither of us were going to be the NK target. I really thought the NK would be either korts or raider. And I was wrong about everyone else with my reads. I thought BSG more towards scum, mostly for the 20 day vote park. That obviously was wrong, as BSG "disappeared" (NK'd). Juls also flipped wolf (scum) making me a whopping 0-2. Aside from that I was rather enlightened by the happenings of night 2. Vi did a good job of smacking some sense into me, and the kills made a few more things make sense. Kinda unfortunate that the night watch ended up being a true red herring of a decision.

As a random sidenote.. is tubby even playing this game at all? What the hell was that last post he just made? Welcome to the I am not paying attention to anything at all department.

[raider8169]

As a random sidenote.. is tubby even playing this game at all? What the hell was that last post he just made? Welcome to the I am not paying attention to anything at all department.

Im sort of under this even though you didnt say my name. Things have been really busy for me as of late. Just started taking more online classes so I need to balance things.

[TonyMontana]

Would you tell a cop on D3 (potentially) lylo not to claim even if they could confirm 2 innocents?

Well, the difference is raider has already claimed his "innocents" and a dead unclaimed cop does not talk.

I just feel that at this point, I would rather have as much ambiguity as possible for the scum stepping into night 3, because if we were to mislynch today we will likely be at lylo tomorrow. So if a claim is not relevant to where the lynch is going, I don't think it's mandated.

[Korts]

Rhinox should know why I'm doing this. If he doesn't, that sounds like his own fault.

Otherwise, I don't see the point of holding a seperate vote on the subject. If you want a claim out of someone, convince the town of their scummyness.

Would you tell a cop on D3 (potentially) lylo not to claim even if they could confirm 2 innocents? That is essentially how I'm looking at this situation. I don't really think raider is scummy, but I think his claim could potentially clear 2 players + himself if it seemed like an honest claim. I could potentially see the claim resulting in 3 different scenarios:

1) Its completely solid and we all are fairly confident it proves sheep are town, which also indicates raider would be town as well.

2) It leaves some room for doubt, but seems like a valid claim. The sheep wouldn't be confirmed, but raider would seem likely town due to partially claiming to protect a sheep.

3) The claim sounds completely fabricated, and doesn't make sense at all for calling sheep town. Sheep allignment would be wifomy, but raider would be looking scummy for his earlier defending of the sheep.

Yesterday, I assumed scenario 1. I would like to believe scenario 1 is valid, making it very easy to decide who to vote today. I'm assuming scenario 2 is probably more likely. Without Raider's claim, its impossible to say which of the 3 scenarios are valid.

Why are you trying to force raider into claiming? I don't think it's lylo, since it seems there may be multiple factions--I'd say 2 mafia and an SK based on flavor, with the mafia kidnapping/mugging and the SK stabbing.

[Vi]

Just started taking more online classes

so I need to balance things.

Ew. I tried those once, and I don't know how I passed.
Those are a lot harder than people who haven't tried them would think.

-----

You made this comment, but didn't reveal what you saw, or ask any questions, or otherwise pursue any actions relating to this comment. What two things are pushing up your suspicions of freeko, and why aren't you questioning freeko about them?

Correct. I was waiting on YOU to comment on it, specifically if you saw the same things I saw... since you were the one who asked me to reveal what we talked about, and didn't bother with it afterward.

Notice that the conversation I posted - which freeko just acknowledged was a good summary - deals almost exclusively with the people who died overnight. First, Juls - why Juls over TonyMontana? - and second, BSG - scummy or not? Also notice that freeko has insisted that neither of us (particularly me) would die

because that would clear him

- and it would... as a Neighbor, but not as Town. I hate to break this to you, freeko, but my death wouldn't do a whit of good for you. And last, see if you can notice a subtle difference in freeko's opinions here.

(freeko) Still think raider is scum for buying Korts' weak sheep claim and generally buddying to him. What do you think?

I really thought the NK would be either korts or raider.

By the way, when I said "subtle difference" I was being sarcastic. This is a contradiction.

BSG was not an obvious choice for the night-kill. I'm fairly positive that through yesterday I was playing the part of Dead President Walking. The only people that I can remember having any kind of interactions with BSG were Rhinox and freeko - mostly freeko. They seem like the people that would benefit most from BSG's death.

Thus, I have to come to four conclusions and have to pick one.
1) This is a coincidence. A staggering coincidence, but nonetheless. Move along, nothing to see.
2) freeko is in the Mafia, and based the BSG kill partly on my information (and partly because BSG was a direct threat to him - and potentially Rhinox as well. Also note that I listed Rhinox as the reference for seeing if BSG was scummy or not; if Rhinox were already known to be reluctant to make a case on BSG - and IIRC, that was the case - it could be expected that BSG would not be lynched). What doesn't fit here as much is the Juls kill, for obvious reasons. However, it wasn't until after I mentioned why Juls was suspicious that he said he could make a case on me.
3) freeko is an independent killing element, and based the Juls kill on my information. This could make him a Vigilante or a Serial Killer. As an SK, freeko REALLY doesn't want me to die, as I've been stopping him from being the obvlynch. My loss would be... tragic for him. The BSG kill doesn't make as much sense in this scenario though - freeko was too busy killing Juls in this case.
4) Someone outside the two of us is listening in on our QuickTopic. I've never seen a role like this before, but in a game like this I'm fairly positive it's possible - and for it to be balanced, it would have to be Mafia-aligned.

The bottom line is that I cannot find a 100% tidy explanation for the curious coincidences between what we said overnight and how the kills came out. However, in light of this I no longer think freeko is uncontestably Town, and am actually leaning toward scenario 2) above.

The reason for the vote on Rhinox was because he was the one who asked me to bring up what was said, but didn't seem to bother with actually looking at what was said. Did he care? Did he already know? His question with no follow-up, in light of the relevance of the answer, looks scummy. Yet as I think more about it, there's a problem here, too - a Mafioso scummily outing his partner is utterly preposterous; and I'm fairly confident that even Rhinox, who last time I checked has no experience with non-suicidal scumpartners, would do this. For a counterpoint, see 4) above, though...

One more thing. Assuming that the two sheep claims are true, TonyMontana and Korts are extremely unlikely to have made the NKs these past few nights. "Mugging" is a decidedly human thing to do; furry four-legged critters have only been seen doing that sort of thing in News of the Weird. I'm pretty sure I've also expressed the belief that the mugging flavor and delayed flip is attached to a particular Mafiate; if that Mafioso dies, kills will resume as in every other game.

In light of the recent thought about the mugging flavor, I think I'll set aside the claimed sheep for today - TonyMontana and Korts. While I will still research them, as both of them need it, I do not believe both of them can be the remaining Mafia under the game's flavor. That leaves... freeko, tubby, raider, and Rhinox as my suspects - with emphasis on freeko and Rhinox, but mostly freeko.

More at 11.

figuratively speaking

Until then,

Unvote: Rhinox

until further information comes in.

[Rhinox]

The reason for the vote on Rhinox was because he was the one who asked me to bring up what was said, but didn't seem to bother with actually looking at what was said. Did he care? Did he already know? His question with no follow-up, in light of the relevance of the answer, looks scummy. Yet as I think more about it, there's a problem here, too - a Mafioso scummily outing his partner is utterly preposterous; and I'm fairly confident that even Rhinox, who last time I checked has no experience with non-suicidal scumpartners, would do this. For a counterpoint, see 4) above, though...

Well, there was also another secret reason for wanting to know what was said - If you both are scum faking neighbors, you'd have to come up with a fake conversation on your own on the spot without being able to deliberate with freeko about it, unless you prepared for it the night before.

I did find the mention of BSG slightly odd, but wifomy. Freeko's comment seems in line with his beliefs about BSG yesterday, so his question seems valid. Whats more odd is that Freeko said both last night and yesterday that he thought both korts and raider were scum, and that he expected either himself or vi to be the nk, but today he's saying he expected raider or korts to be the nightkill. Its almost like a subtle "If I were scum, I'd have killed korts or raider, but NEVER BSG ;);)"

I've never heard of a role that gets to read in on a quicktopic, but I guess its possible. Actually, I'm suprised that the 2 of you even get a quicktopic, instead of just PMing. I've always thought quicktopics were for groups of 3 or more, where it would become tedious to PM everything to everyone. However, one thing you wouldn't mention, but we can't rule out, is that the rest of us KNOW there was someone else reading your quicktopic besides freeko, and that person is you yourself. That is why anything in the discussion kinda boils down to WIFOM to the rest of us - how do we know you didn't kill BSG and be ready to frame freeko for it due to the night conversation? Not saying I think thats the most likely scenario, but thats why I decided not to comment on the night conversation - theres nothing definative for me to deduce from it.

I would like to ask, what happened to this?

If Juls and TonyMontana are scum, Rhinox is likely Town, and since he was paying more attention to BSG just listen to him. (Yes, I said that.)

Juls was scum, tony probably isn't... How does assuming tony town move me from "probably town, trust his judgement" to "one of my top 2 suspects"?

Well, the difference is raider has already claimed his "innocents" and a dead unclaimed cop does not talk.

In light of the recent thought about the mugging flavor, I think I'll set aside the claimed sheep for today - TonyMontana and Korts. While I will still research them, as both of them need it, I do not believe both of them can be the remaining Mafia under the game's flavor. That leaves... freeko, tubby, raider, and Rhinox as my suspects - with emphasis on freeko and Rhinox, but mostly freeko.

"Korts"]Why are you trying to force raider into claiming? I don't think it's lylo, since it seems there may be multiple factions--I'd say 2 mafia and an SK based on flavor, with the mafia kidnapping/mugging and the SK stabbing.

To answer all of you, I'm just not sure I'm comfortable taking Raider at his word today. We have to trust not only that he has an honest, believable claim, but also that his interpretation of his role actually does clear the sheep. Other problems I'm having - Assuming everything raider is saying is honest and correct, why aren't "confirmed innocents" being nked? Tony and Korts are cleared through raider, and vi and freeko are neighbors that we can't confirm, but we're to believe they are town as well. Furthermore, why would scum raider clear two real town players, and leave them in the game? So we'd have to assume raider town as well. If all 5 are actually town, I'd really have expected 1 of those 5 to be the mafia kill last night. Also, it should be easy for the town to win - tubby and I are the only 2 not "cleared" in some way. Since I know I am not scum, that means either tubby is the last scum (doubtful), or at least 1 of the 5 "cleared" players aren't really cleared.

So lets back up. Raiders claim is honest and the interpretation is correct. Tony and Korts are still cleared. That means scum are in a group of tubby, freeko, and vi. Since I don't believe both neighbors are scum, I would vote tubby.

Lets back up again. Raiders claim is honest, but the interpretation is not correct and tony and korts are not cleared. The potential scum group grows larger - {Tony, Korts, Tubby, freeko, Vi,

Raider

} Raider becomes questionable because if I believed his claim, then it would seem that he was simply mistaken for calling sheep town, but I couldn't rule out the possibility it was a clever fake claim to protect a partner.

One more time, if Raider's claim is completely rediculous and fabricated, then Raider is probably scum, korts and tubby's connection t raider falls to WIFOM, and tubby, freeko, and Vi are still on the table. Raider would get my vote in this scenario.

If you ask me to just accept raider's claim as true, then its quite obvious to me that tubby should be voted. If you ask me to just ignore what raider has said and vote for whoever I think is scummiest, I have a problem because korts seems really scummy to me. I want Raider's claim so I can ease my own concern about korts, and feel comfortable going after tubby.

@korts: if you really think the setup is 2 mafia + sk, then yes, it basically is LyLo. A mislynch today would mean that can't win without help from crosskills. However, I doubt that we have an sk, and I don't agree with your analysis on flavor for why you believe there is an sk. For one, you say a stabbing sounds like an sk. That would be a knife, or some other sharp, piercing weapon*, yes? What would a vig use? Normally, I would think a gun. But, my own interpretation on the flavor is we're a town in a time before guns, so what other weapon* could a vig possibly use? If you really think about it, I think the signs are pointing to that kill on Juls being made by a vig and not an sk. Doesn't rule out the presence of an sk, however. But IMO, if we have an sk among us, they have yet to make a successful kill.

[freeko]

1) This is a coincidence. A staggering coincidence, but nonetheless. Move along, nothing to see.

This would be the proper choice.

I was simply wrong about BSG. I only had one relevant thing to go on with BSG, and that was the parked vote. At least 21 days it was parked on me, and no one called it out, asked for some manner of explanation, or any justification at all for that vote.

As for raider, my suspicion of raider still stands. Nothing has happened since either the conversation or the aftermath of the night phase that makes me think anything different. Again, speculation. Give me enough time I could speculate up a whole routine better than the original from The Princess Bride, but thats not important. The reason I even brought up BSG or raider is because I was on the fence with them. My personal feeling about it was clouding what I should have been looking at.

Though Vi, you do a good job of showing how I am thinking of who the likely NK target will be. Then doing a 180 after the fact and trying to play my staement of still being suspicious of raider as a contradiction. Now, if I had said that BEFORE the NK, you might be onto something.

Hell, lets do some mudslinging thats completely unproductive while I am at it.

From the night conversation.

If Juls and TonyMontana are scum,

Rhinox is likely Town,

and since he was paying more attention to BSG just listen to him. (Yes, I said that.)

Rhinox should know why I'm doing this. If he doesn't, that sounds like his own fault.
Vote: Rhinox (L-2)

And then there is the secret handshake with a vote from left field that is unvoted 8 posts later.**WIFOM to follow** Vi, if he is town in the night discussion, why are you putting him on l-2 with that vote? You tell him to re-read 2 posts. The one which has our night conversation summary in it. The other one that has pretty much nothing to do with rhinox, but instead focuses on your interest in raiders claim. I guess you do ask why Rhinox wanted to know what we talked about last night. (Of course that question has yet to actually be answered, and should probably have been before anything was revealed. Thats just my opinion though)

So in short, my being wrong about reads on 2 people somehow makes me scum now? Brilliant. Thats the last time I ever try to have an intelligent discussion involving someone other than myself.

[tubby216]

i am sorry i am captian mclurky lurk, but it appears i have lost whatever handle i had ion this game,

this is gonna look stupid but just bear with me ok


tony and korts are claimed sheep, sheep = protown

vi and freeko are neighbors/masons = alignments unknown

rihnox and me are unknon

raider is also unknown but may have inside information the rest of do not have,

the day started with rihnox being the top suspect, then vi and freeko are havin what i condsider to be a lovers quarrel (distancing)

rihnox pressuring raider to full claim and ask what vi and freeko talk about during nite phase.
thats what i have so far,,

i do not like rihnox right now he seems a lil scummier than the rest, i also don't like how i am so content just to blindly follow vi either, so i got alot of reading and work to put into this game ,, eta prolly bu 11pm est fri i'll have some reall content to add.

[raider8169]

As for raider, my suspicion of raider still stands. Nothing has happened since either the conversation or the aftermath of the night phase that makes me think anything different. Again, speculation. Give me enough time I could speculate up a whole routine better than the original from The Princess Bride, but thats not important. The reason I even brought up BSG or raider is because I was on the fence with them. My personal feeling about it was clouding what I should have been looking at.

For the records, I still think you to be scum but it does not seem the wise choice for today either. Along with that it seems

TonyMontana, tubby216, or Rhinox seems like one of them will be todays lynch. When I get time I hope this weekend I will to a PbP on them. Atleast for a starting point for me. I would still like to look into Vi and freeko more but I dont think I would get support for them today so my focus will be on the other 3.

[Vi]

A note on defense - The vote on Rhinox was in large part for pressure's sake, because that appeared to be the only way to get him to RT*T (or at least that was the way that would work best in my one-dimensional worldview).

Actually, I'm suprised that the 2 of you even get a quicktopic, instead of just PMing. I've always thought quicktopics were for groups of 3 or more, where it would become tedious to PM everything to everyone.

Nah. PMs are a bit on the inconvenient side for ongoing discussions; it's good to have all the conspiracy discussion in one place.

However, one thing you wouldn't mention, but we can't rule out, is that the rest of us KNOW there was someone else reading your quicktopic besides freeko, and that person is you yourself.

I'm fairly sure this is accurate. I did read the QuickTopic last night.
Or are you calling me Mafia?~

That is why anything in the discussion kinda boils down to WIFOM to the rest of us - how do we know you didn't kill BSG and be ready to frame freeko for it due to the night conversation? Not saying I think thats the most likely scenario, but thats why I decided not to comment on the night conversation - theres nothing definative for me to deduce from it.

A note on this. I didn't even see the apparent coincidences until you said something and I looked back at it. (I didn't take the conversation very seriously at the time...)

Juls was scum, tony probably isn't... How does assuming tony town move me from "probably town, trust his judgement" to "one of my top 2 suspects"?

TonyMontana *probably* isn't? I said I wouldn't focus on him today, but I'm not going to go that far.
Also, circumstances have changed since the time I said that. What these circumstances are have been beaten to death in my posts recently.

For more clarification, I would like to set aside the sheep only today because they're sheep... not because of raider's alleged confirmation.

-----

Though Vi, you do a good job of showing how I am thinking of who the likely NK target will be. Then doing a 180 after the fact and trying to play my staement of still being suspicious of raider as a contradiction. Now, if I had said that BEFORE the NK, you might be onto something.

How does that make a difference?

Of course that question has yet to actually be answered, and should probably have been before anything was revealed.

He's answered it.

Thats the last time I ever try to have an intelligent discussion involving someone other than myself.

'Guess you're not going to get one any time soon then~

-------

TonyMontana, tubby216, or Rhinox seems like one of them will be todays lynch.

Why these three?

I would still like to look into Vi and freeko more but

I dont think I would get support for them today

so my focus will be on the other 3.

I always hate it when people say this.
Are you interested in the truth, or getting a lynch (that isn't you)?

I need to read the thread for a change. brb

[freeko]

Nah, I just havent had Vi vote for me yet. Once that happens then everyone in the game will have voted for me at some point. I think I get 20 achievement points for unlocking that achievement. Wonder if I can get the mod to slap a vote on me as well?

Aside from that blatant mockery. I wanted to see where my opinions on people differed with Vi last night. It was the first chance I had the entire game to be able to comapre my suspicions with someone else with no outside influence. The pregame was bothced on the server going down. The N1 conversation was non-existant as PK was out of the game already (to be replaced after D2 had started). A sidenote here is that Juls (who is now known scum) was one of the firrt to suggest PK as a vacant spot be lynched (and we all know why now dont we). So that alone right there is enough to clear Vi in my mind.

For those who want to keep track, use the mod cutscene where occam dsappears to keep up with this.

It was Juls first relevant post that had his PbPA breakdown of the players to that point, with a vote on PK (now Vi). Looking at that vote alone, after BSG (N2 NK target, and why I thought him to be scum as his 2 relevant actions in day 2 were against the pair of myself and PK/Vi) started the wagon rolling on PK witht ehfirst vote, Juls was soon to follow. The next relevant action is made by Rhinox, by saying that PK needs to claim. Followed by a small back and forth where Juls backtracks a bit and Rhinox on the next post drops his vote on PK. This is where the Juls/ Rhinox interaction is at its most obvious. They are tryingt to work to secure a mislynch of PK at this point. BSG is baarely playing at thispoint, so that vote is going to stay. I think if the game wasnt so bogged down by players not actively playing the game, they would have been sucessful on this attempt.

The next part of the puzzle is what set me off with korts. Korts comes in with a PK vote with the sole content other than the vote being "post or perish." Juls now gives me the most relevant post of the game (in hindsight from him) in post #347, he follows up with trying to get raider and myself to finish off this mislynch. This get derailed when Vi replaces in for PK. After this, Korts backs off the wagon, and Rhinox goes for the next target immediately and jumps on me. Rhinox tries really, Really, REALLY hard to try to contort the situation (around the 360-370 post range now) into obv one of the two of us is scum.

Now we know where Juls stanrds in this whole fiasco. It should be obvious by the interesations of the pair of Juls and Rhinox that they were working together to try to secure the mislynch of PK at the time. This is not a case of crazy ass coincidences like Vi could try to make on me. This is all here for everyone to see in all its glory with you Rhinox.

vote: rhinox

Just look at every other interaction between Juls and yourself and you see this to be true. This episode wityh PK/Vi is the most glaring representation of it in practice.

[raider8169]

TonyMontana, tubby216, or Rhinox seems like one of them will be todays lynch.

Why these three?

I would still like to look into Vi and freeko more but

I dont think I would get support for them today

so my focus will be on the other 3.

I always hate it when people say this.
Are you interested in the truth, or getting a lynch (that isn't you)?

I need to read the thread for a change. brb

those 3 because the others are me/korts and you/freeko. Seems like right now those are bad lynches. I think they still need to be dicussed but for the most part that has already happened. I did not get the support I wanted for the freeko lynch with you not going to vote him and the same with Korts. As I do not have all the time in the world like I wish I wil focus on them because that to me is the priority and I will go from there. I can understand why you may hate it because it does leave out 4 other people that would just be able to skate by. This is not the case though atleast not intended to be.

[Rhinox]

TonyMontana, tubby216, or Rhinox seems like one of them will be todays lynch. When I get time I hope this weekend I will to a PbP on them. Atleast for a starting point for me. I would still like to look into Vi and freeko more but I dont think I would get support for them today so my focus will be on the other 3.

See, this is where I start to have problems. Raider says he thinks sheep are town. Korts and tony are sheep. And now, raider says tony would be a good lynch choice... Why not Korts? Why is Tony a better lynch choice than korts?

This get derailed when Vi replaces in for PK. After this, Korts backs off the wagon, and Rhinox goes for the next target immediately and jumps on me. Rhinox tries really, Really, REALLY hard to try to contort the situation (around the 360-370 post range now) into obv one of the two of us is scum.

This really was just a misunderstanding. I really thought you claimed to be confirmed through role PM - not that you only inferred that through PK claiming and calling you town.

The rest of 892, all I see is that you think I'm Juls scum partner because we both pressure PK at the beginning of D2. PK was barely playing and had yet to clarify his role claim to confirm what you were saying. I'm not quite following your logic for how Juls and I were working together to (mis)lynch PK. All you're really saying is that we both voted PK - the rest you're really purely speculating.

[freeko]

the rest you're really purely speculating.

Maybe so, but I look back on those posts now in that whole beginning of day 2 exchange and it looks really bad for you Rhinox. I dont think it tames much for someone to draw a conclusion given 1+1=X now does it?

Truly, what was your motivation behind the PK lynch, and then my own lynch attempt after that failed then?

Had to Kill BSG to score brownie points with me since BSG had a vote parked on me for 20+ days? Since the scum failed in their attempt to get either myself or PK/Vi lynched in day 2. They kill BSG to sow more seeds of discontent towards me in a further effort to cause a mislynch of myself or Vi. Problem is that I had much more hatred towards korts, and even admitted I wanted to stomp his guts out on more than one occasion. If the NK was korts, then you would have had a much greater time of convincing others that I was somehow behind it.

So the NK was a mistake. Much like the first NK was aimed at Occam, the one person who flat out said that they could clear myself and Vi on consecutive nights. Its obvious that the scum plan is still to try to secure a mislynch. THough now on anyone at this point. I dont think you have a shot at either Vi or myself like you thought at the end of day 1. Too bad Juls died, or it might still have had a chace of working.

** begin blatant sarcasm**
I think my new gimmick this day is to vote for you every time I make a post. Then again, someome clueless like fatso might think its a joke. Hah, there we go more random insults. Those are always fun. ** end blatant sarcasm**

[raider8169]

TonyMontana, tubby216, or Rhinox seems like one of them will be todays lynch. When I get time I hope this weekend I will to a PbP on them. Atleast for a starting point for me. I would still like to look into Vi and freeko more but I dont think I would get support for them today so my focus will be on the other 3.

See, this is where I start to have problems. Raider says he thinks sheep are town. Korts and tony are sheep. And now, raider says tony would be a good lynch choice... Why not Korts? Why is Tony a better lynch choice than korts?

I knew someone would point this out but I will explain it when I can do my review this weekend. This was something I think would make people think differently.

[Rhinox]

Maybe so, but I look back on those posts now in that whole beginning of day 2 exchange and it looks really bad for you Rhinox. I dont think it tames much for someone to draw a conclusion given 1+1=X now does it?

I think a better representation of what you are doing is saying 1+X=Y, and adjusting X and Y to support your conclusion.

Truly, what was your motivation behind the PK lynch, and then my own lynch attempt after that failed then?

I wanted to pressure PK into talking, and if he didn't start talking or get replaced, follow through with the lynch. I have no remorse from lynching players who don't participate, even if they end up being town. I'd rather lynch them sooner rather than later, to eliminate the question mark later in the game. Some say thats a bad reason for lynching someone, to "policy lynch" a lurker. Truth is, I never truely policy lynch someone just for lurking. I have to think they're scummy first. Example is BSG in this game - she was lurking/inactive, but I didn't think she was scummy.

After Vi replaced in and claimed, I honestly thought there was an inconsistency between your claim and Vi's. I thought it was an obvious point that proved you were lying, so yes, I wanted you lynched. When I realized I was mistaken, I obviously did not want you lynched, and haven't considered you a good lynch choice since.

Had to Kill BSG to score brownie points with me since BSG had a vote parked on me for 20+ days? Since the scum failed in their attempt to get either myself or PK/Vi lynched in day 2. They kill BSG to sow more seeds of discontent towards me in a further effort to cause a mislynch of myself or Vi. Problem is that I had much more hatred towards korts, and even admitted I wanted to stomp his guts out on more than one occasion. If the NK was korts, then you would have had a much greater time of convincing others that I was somehow behind it.

This doesn't make any sense... first of all, If I'm scum, and I know you and BSG are both town, and I know you're itching to vote BSG for camping a vote on you, how would killing BSG be beneficial at all? Seems like it would have been better to leave BSG alive, and then help you mislynch her today. So, seems more likely the reasons for killing BSG do not revolve around you afterall, freeko. Its pretty bad WIFOM to say I'm scum because I would kill BSG to make you look bad. Firstly, why would I specifically do that, anymore than anyone else as scum? Secondly, I'm not even arguing to lynch you or Vi today - I'm arguing to lynch tubby (if sheep + raider are assumed as town).

So the NK was a mistake. Much like the first NK was aimed at Occam, the one person who flat out said that they could clear myself and Vi on consecutive nights. Its obvious that the scum plan is still to try to secure a mislynch. THough now on anyone at this point. I dont think you have a shot at either Vi or myself like you thought at the end of day 1. Too bad Juls died, or it might still have had a chace of working.

Yeah, congratulations. You figured out the scum plan... get town mislynched. As I've said before, I'm not arguing to lynch either you or Vi today, so I think you're just confused. Not real sure where you got that idea from.

I knew someone would point this out but I will explain it when I can do my review this weekend. This was something I think would make people think differently.

Ok, I'll be waiting for your review.

[raider8169]

Wow, I really hope this game is not waiting solely on my post. One more day and its the weekend though!

[Rhinox]

No raider, not entirely waiting for you, but I do view what you have to say as pretty important because what role information you have revealed is playing a large part on our assumptions and focus today.

Now seems like a good time to go back and look at tubby and his predecessors and see if there is anything more there than process of elimination.

Rogue Shenanigans:

0: picked the path. WIFOM ensues

1: Explains that later he wouldn't condone his action in post 0, but "its ok now because the mod said it didn't mean much". I feel this was a bit hypocritical - what gives RS the right to decide whats an important decision, and what isn't? What gives RS the right to decide what needs talked about and what doesn't? IMO, this limited conversation the town could have been having, and would have provided a different, better way to get the game going rather than just random voting like in every other game. Although I have no reason to believe that scum would or wouldn't pick the path, if I think in terms of limiting the town's conversation, then this becomes a point against RS. The question I have, that I can't get answered, is, is RS scummy for limiting the conversation, or was he just town who was thinking he was just making a decision to get into the game, and didn't realize that talking about picking which path would have been just as valuable, actually more valuable, than starting the game through the traditional random voting.

2: RV Korts

3: Scolds freeko for attacking him for choosing a path without discussion. My note here is just because RS says, /in before "You should have waited for us to talk about it", doesn't mean we should ignore that point and not discuss it. Just because you realize something you should have done, but didn't, it doesn't excuse you from not doing what you should have done.

4: Asks for forgiveness for starting "5 pages of debate over a choice that was stated unimportant by the mod." What I find interesting is that town or scum, RS should have realized that was exactly what was going to happen as a result of his rash decision. If RS=town, then I would imagine that the choice was intentional in order to spark exactly this conversation (similar to someone self-voting in the random stage - you know its going to be controversial, but you're doing it to start a discussion). RC's comment here makes me think he wasn't intending to have a conversation over his choice. I think the apology points more towards scum trying to be apathetic to appease the town. Apologizing for conversation and debate is not something town should do, IMO. Town should welcome all conversation as valuable in some way, shape, or form. Even if RS thought the decision was meaningless, that doesn't make the conversation about it any less valuable.

RS also says "I disagree that Occam was fishing. Or at least fishing WELL. He was just uselessly speculating on the setup and voicing his thoughts." If RS is scum here, he knows Occam is town :shrug: This seems kinda like playing both sides here - defending occam by disagreeing with the attack on Occam, while leaving room to vote Occam later for "uselessly speculating on the setup" if he wanted to. If RS is town, then he was just expressing his thoughts :shrug:

5: "Korts claimed scum.

Quicklynch go!" Joke? Legit bandwagon attempt? Fluff? who knows...

6: Explanation of the site being down

7: Insists his path choosing is null in every respect. Maybe he's right, but thats for the town to decide - its not null just because he says so.

8: "Was answering Prom King. Was defending his idea that I am more likley town... which I dont think is a healthy approach." Very interesting comment here. Speculation: RS-scum picked the path and tried to argue that it didn't matter if we talked about the choice or not, cuz it was meaningless. Just as RS was about to get past picking the choice, PK-idiotscumpartner chimes in trying to say how picking the path actually makes RS likely town. RS realizes that not only is PK's logic invalid, but its a pretty bad connection to each other. RS immediately downplays PK comments and calls them outright wrong.

Now, let me assume RS is town for a minute... If I'm town, I know I'm town, and I want the other townies to think I'm town, so I can not get mislynched and try to mislynch scum. If someone says they think I'm town, even for a reason I don't agree with, I would never say "no, thats wrong, you still have to assume I could be scum". Instead, I would keep that in the back of my head (why would that player think I'm town for that reason?) and keep my eye on that player, and be glad that I'm not being considered for lynch.

However, if you assume RS and PK are scum partners, then this makes complete sense. PK created a link to RS, RS realized it was potentially bad, and tried to destroy the link by debunking PK. Given PK's horrible play, I could imagine this is a ossibility. This would point towards tubby and vi being the remaining mafia.

Alternative explanation: RS scum, PK town. RS was trying to look like a good townie by not accepting being called town for bad reasons. Given PK's horrible play, I could imagine him coming up with bad reasons for calling someone town (i.e. his claim to clear freeko). RS was simply trying to score points by saying "hey wait a minute, that doesn't make me town", while leaving an opportunity to vote PK later for using bad logic.

9: Hops on LT bandwagon, says we can lynch korts-scum tomorrow. Is this scum jumping on a townie bandwagon, or just RS's playstyle to bandwagon every opportunity? RS never gave a reason for voting LT...

10: Says there is a reason for voting LT: "Enough of a bad read to be a place to take off my random korts vote." Also says he has no reason to think korts is scum. RS never expanded on his bad read of LT, as this was his last post before replacing out. This would indicate to me that RS had no reason, and was just opportunisticly jumping on the wagon.

Summary: Nothing I've read would make me think RS is town. Lots of stuff I could rationalize to be scummy. At best, my read on RS would be completely null - nothing pro-town at all, and absolutely no scum hunting. At worst, I can rationalize RS to be pretty scummy based on his few comments.


Megaflareon:

Only 4 posts. The only contribution being that he was undecided on the mason claim until PK confirmed or denied.

tubby:

Tubby has more posts, so I'm not going to go through all of them here are a few I found interesting:

finished read on vi/pk

vi is town. I have been in enough games with vi to notice viscum and vitown this looks like vitown to me.

Does tubby know vi is town because of what he read, or does he know vi is town because he is scum and wants vi as a friend, or are they both scum? I'm thinking option B...

plus i knew vi was town with in his first page of posts, he has a tell and if i inform you of it his tell will dissapear

Vi says he's aware of this tell, so I think its time you tell the rest of us what this tell is.

vi i think i see why you want juls lynched,,

reading rihnox next

Accusing juls without any reason. Bussing?

ok so i read raider and nothing is setting of any alarms,

same with rihnox


but now onto juls,

I don't like how she was speculating over occum possibly being the shaepard, i especially don't like it after she made her full role claim, it doesn't make sense to me at all,

so
unvote: vote juls

The reasons for the vote on juls seem very weak to me. Looking back, I'm not sure I could view this as anything but bussing. Also, when did this opinion change. You though I was town, as well as raider, and you thought juls was scum. Well, juls was scum. Why are you now suspecting me? What changed your mind?

no thats all i felt like typing, inbetween chasing kids and cleanin my house, i do have a life,,, well atleast my wife says i do
------------------------------------------
well chalk you up to the long list of women i have dissapointed,, the list is long but its distinguished

Tubby says he has more reasons for voting juls, but never provides them.

after a time...

i understand the wagon, but with the deadline looming an being lost in my own read i am reluctant to hammer, however i feel it also bad if we alow this to linger out. i believe the more this strectes out there worse off the town is.

This doesn't seem to fit. tubby was pretty sure Vi was town, and raider and I weren't setting off alarms, and he thought juls was scum. Now he says he's "lost" and afraid to hammer afatchic even though there is a deadline - but also submits that "stretching it out would be bad for the town". I get the feeling that tubby wanted someone else to hammer so he could avoid the responsibility of hammering someone he knows is town. I think he says he's "lost" in order to be prepared to today attack players he previously said he thought were town yesterday. Nothing about tubby's posts yesterday made me think he was lost in any way - he seemed pretty sure of his convictions.

i say freeko or vi should watch, preferably vi

Either trying getting scumpartnervi to watch, or trying to be consistent with his earlier comment of being sure vi is town.

i would not be a good choice for watch

Already asked, but why not?

the day started with rihnox being the top suspect

Why do you consider me the top suspect at the start of the day, when at the end of the day yesterday you didn't see anything to set off any alarms?

i do not like rihnox right now he seems a lil scummier than the rest

Reasons? anything other than this:

rihnox pressuring raider to full claim and ask what vi and freeko talk about during nite phase.

Either way, why do you consider that scummy?

Summary: tubby rarely gives reasons for his opinions, and many of his actions reak of opportunism IMO. I want to know what tell he found to call Vi town, as well as answers/comments to my other questions. Tubby is seeming like a pretty solid lynch choice to me.