Mafia 88- Return to New Catania- Game Over!

[tubby216]

and no he claimed miller prior to the two cop reveal

[OhGodMyLife]

I swear to god its like nobody was reading what I wrote yesterday.

[tubby216]

Two scumgroups it is. I stand corrected.

I've got out next scum though.

Vote: iamausername

I've been vascillating on xyl being scum for the last two days, but I'm pretty sure now that he and username make way too much sense as a scumpair. Just look at sobeahero (who iaun replaced) defending the everliving fuck out of george carlin (who xyl replaced), and littering his posts with false dilemmas so bad that even username had to call them out when he replaced.

is this what you meant?

[Der Hammer]

Is it massclaim day today? I think it is, but I could probably be persuaded to hold off until tomorrow.

is anyone familiar with the "unrecruited mafia traitor" role? how do you suppose it works?

My guess would be that both mafia groups were told there was a traitor around, but not who it was, and they could try to recruit one person each night. I'm not sure what his win condition would be prior to recruitment, in that case, though.

The important thing for finding scum though, is that Xyl wasn't identified as being aligned with either of the two scumgroups, which leads me to believe that he did not know who was in them. Because there's no way he would have been given the identities of both if he could ultimately end up aligned with either one or the other.

I just looked at the list of living players and discovered that Der Hammer is still supposed to be in this game. Wow.

Mod: can we get a prod/replacement on Der Hammer, please?

Now beginning work on a long overdue reread.

Yep, I'm still here. Will be working on a reread for a bit.

[OhGodMyLife]

So it turns out I mixed up which of xyl and iaun was doing the defending and between all those replacements, and its not the lock I thought it was. However, I still find username scummy on his own.

On a seperate note, I think that its likely we're dealing with three more scum - two florida and one cartel. This means there is the potential for florida mafia to win after today if there is both a non-florida lynch and three non-florida deaths in the night. Which means its probably time for a massclaim.

[Ectomancer]

unvote

Mafia traitor does cause a pause. If, as speculated, we have 3 and 3, that would leave 1 more potential mafia member, giving us a 13 town 7 scum ratio. Even with 2 scum groups, I think this is excessive.

In my mind, here's a couple things Xyl could have been doing.

If he knew the mafiates, and was purple, then he would know Tubby would be the last purple, kill him and he would remain town. Town looks in decent shape right now, so I think this would be a good choice. Thing is, that would make 3 purple, plus a potential 4th. In that case, I would assume a 2 red scum group.

Another possibility is 2 scum groups of 2 with a mafia traitor. I don't believe that Xyl could join either scum group

and

know who they are, though there may be another mechanic that involves the traitor. That would give us 2 scum groups of 2 with the possibility of 1 of them increasing their number by 1.
If that is the case, purple is dead, traitor is dead, and we are looking for (likely) 1 red.

At any rate, we need to find red scum if possible as opposed to purple today. If purple still exists there should only be 1 and I think Tubby would be that guy based upon the theory that Xyl knew it to be a losing cause, even if he could get Tubby to recruit him. Then again, if Xyl was the red traitor, he would also know how many red scum there are, and whether Tubby was one of them.

My only concern with a Xyl that is a traitor to only 1 scum group is that my sense of game balance is completely thrown off kilter. I can't resolve it without either giving 1 scum group an advantage over the other (they dont have to recruit their 3rd member),

or

some other mechanism that would allow Xyl to be recruited by either scum group without knowing who they are. If Xyl knew who both scum groups are, he could have simply announced it day 1 and hoped they didn't recruit him out of spite.

We really can only guess as to the numbers of each group and the function of the mafia traitor. That leaves me with keeping my vote on Tubby unless something more concrete presents itself.

[Ectomancer]

vote Tubby

(again)

[tubby216]

xyl was unrecruited. meaning he belonged to neither,
the only reason xyl thought me scum was do to my preformance in his game xyl's relative chaos where i was scum.



but here is a question,
if you lynch me today and i am townwill that put us a lylo tomorrow?

[Ectomancer]

In my opinion, unlikely.

[tubby216]

ok just thought i'd ask

[Yosarian2]

Ecto: I'm a bit confused; it sounded like in your post, you were saying that you thought we needed to lynch red scum today, that you think Tubby is purple scum, and then you voted tubby. Could you clarify?

[tubby216]

i think ecto just doesn't care and simply wants me hung

[Ectomancer]

Then again, if Xyl was the red traitor, he would also know how many red scum there are, and whether Tubby was one of them.

At this point in the game, I don't think that Xyl wanted to be recruited and was out to eliminate that possibility. Before he died last night, there was 1 red and 1 purple dead. If he knew Tubby was one of his potential partners, and was already in trouble, the obvious move (to me) would be to get rid of him and throw in with the town.
That's entirely an assumption, and that I think the scum pairs were more likely 2 and 2 with mafia traitor thrown into the mix for a 15 town 4 scum 1 wildcard. 10 player games have 2 scum, double that and you get 20 players with 4 scum. The only piece I'm missing is how to balance that traitor between the groups.
I reckon it is possible that we have 1 unrevealed traitor (for the side opposite of Xyl).

Let me talk this out.

If Xyl was potential purple (and there was only 2 total), then with his death purple should be gone. If there were 2 red total, then we would only have 1, plus possibly a red traitor.

If you exist and know only one of your color is left, claim and lets win ok?

They could also have possibly been recruited.

Night 1 we only had 1 kill, while nights 2, 3, and 4 we had 3. Odd that. Looks like a possible recruitment that night, even if you consider a doc/block, unless what looks like a Vig or SK decided not to kill that night. A Vig I could see hesitating to explain one of them, an SK not so much.

So round and round about we go.

Anyhow, I'm going with a Tubby lynch with 2 motivations, 1 is that I actually agreed with Xyl on the 'slip' and Adel's example from today, though weaker, could also be a valid example. That is the main reason, with the possibility of Xyl killing off possibly the last of the scum group that could recruit him, and he fingered Tubby. Given the good possibility that he really was scumhunting following a lead that made sense to me at that time also makes sense today.

I'm also suspicious of Tubby's question on whether we would be in LYLO tomorrow if we lynched him. If the answer was yes, even if he were scum or an SK, he would count towards the total number opposite the other scum group and could plead a case for finding the other scum first before lynching him. Maybe I should have said yes when he asked to see if he tried to strike a bargain...

[OhGodMyLife]

Both Ectomancer and Adel seem to be getting a serious case of selective scumhunting.

[Adel]

Both Ectomancer and Adel seem to be getting a serious case of selective scumhunting.

I haven't even read the game yet, as I've stated twice. What is your deal? Are you just feeling jealous because I'm doing more scumhunting than you are?

[tubby216]

in response to ecto's explination post.

no i would not have tried to strike a bargian, bargians don't work before lylo, if we were about to enter lylo then i would be fighting harder not to get lynched, but since we are not entering lylo tomorrow then i am ok with you carrying out your lynch, I just think if i am the lynch for today that we need to look elsewhere before the hammer falls.

[tubby216]

people i want looked at are

OGML,Der Hammer, Iamusername, and depending what adel says upon completetion of their read i want ckd/adel looked at too

reasons:

OGML- I diddn't like his play day1, i posted a case on him but it was quite OMGUSy but still i would like that reviewed i think something is there,

Der Hammer- after claiming miller, lurked tremendously, would like to see input from him or someone to annylise him

Iamusername- not really sure just kind of a gut feeling at this point so i am going to reveiw him today as well to see if i find anything.

[Ectomancer]

I think I just resolved the balance issue in my head with the scum traitor. If you had 1 scum group of 2, and 1 scum group of 3 with a mafia traitor, then yes it could potentially grow larger, but the situation I just explained where the traitor decides to go with town also puts them at a disadvantage.
The only doubt I'm harboring is that there was only 1 purple dead yesterday, so the idea that Xyl was bussing Tubby as the 3rd member of purple doesn't really apply yet unless he intended to get both of them, which I sort of doubt.

I'm going to unvote because Red was the first group to get lynched. I don't see why Xyl would turn on his own group when unsure of how large the other group might be. If I were in that situation, with only 1 red and 1 purple dead, I would hedge my bets and hold tight seeing what transpired.

So I think the idea that Xyl was trying to get Tubby lynched as a member of his scum group isn't really believable. What remains is the idea that Xyl was probably scum hunting, but not within his own group is more believable. Thing is, without the other leg of Xyl turning traitor yesterday the 'slips' aren't really enough to vote on.

unvote

[Yosarian2]

At this point in the game, I don't think that Xyl wanted to be recruited and was out to eliminate that possibility.

That requires a lot of assumptions, especally about Xyl's win condition. You seem to be assuming that an uncrecruited Xyl wins with the town; but if that was true, then wouldn't he show up as green on the front list if he died without being recruited? Or am I reading too much into that?

That being said, if he really was not affiliated with either scum group yet, then he couldn't have known who any of the scum were until he was recruited. The other option is probably that there are two traitors, one for each scum group.

I'm also suspicious of Tubby's question on whether we would be in LYLO tomorrow if we lynched him. If the answer was yes, even if he were scum or an SK, he would count towards the total number opposite the other scum group and could plead a case for finding the other scum first before lynching him. Maybe I should have said yes when he asked to see if he tried to strike a bargain...

Quite possible.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind lynching a purple scum today,; odds are, there should only be one purple scum left at most, which would mean we'd at least get rid of a nightkill. Although...I'm not even sure "if there are any purple left, there's only one" is a good assumption; what if purple already recruited their traitor?

I'm really not sure about how this game is be balanced; just the fact that there's 2 dead cops and a dead one-shot doctor could mean anything; it could mean a LOT of scum, if voth cops were sane.

[Ectomancer]

Alright OGML, the mass claim thing. We've got 8 alive and we think we have as many as 3 scum in 2 different scum groups. There also appears to be a vig/sk accounting for the 3rd kill,

unless

we have 3 scum groups of 2. (Mafia traitor role always bugs me, and from Yos' response, I guess I still dont really fully understand the role)

Anyhow, with todays lynch and those 3, we end up with 4 kills.

Lets look at the numbers and this is my best guess and open to debate.

Red-2
Purple-1
SK-1
Town-4
or no SK and Town - 5

That looks scary to me. But I don't think I agree with a mass claim. If there are any remaining protection type roles, I dont think it wise to expose them, assuming of course that they dont protect red...

1 of those bullets is reds.
2 of those bullets will be firing into a crowd containing both red and 5 others.
1 bullet will be 25% influenced by red

So. We can gamble on one of those hitting red.

We have the benefit of seeing the result of the first one before nightfall. If it is

not

red, then here was what needs to happen.

Purple, do not submit a kill tonight

I understand that often a mod will not allow an SK to submit a no kill. Obviously an SK isn't going to claim and confirm or deny that for us, so...
It is up to you to maintain the balance if today's kill does not turn up red.

Alrighty, if we can agree to trust scum to do what is best for their win condition, then we can move along and talk about the Vig and the SK.

I see two choices. Leave them 100% in control of the decision of their target. They have every incentive to their own win condition to hit red whatever their alignment is.

Well, honestly, I dont see a real 2nd choice. I dont think allowing red 25% influence in an attempt to direct a Vig/SK kill is a wise choice over 0% chance of them influencing it.

However, I think today that we should at least provide guidance in the form of placing a vote for our lynch target today, and then posting your choice for the Vig/SK tonight. I think that's a nice way to further establish voting patterns before tonight and tomorrow (kind of a 2 for 1 day with no night kill).

So there's some jerky.

[Adel]

xyl was unrecruited. meaning he belonged to neither,
the only reason xyl thought me scum was do to my preformance in his game xyl's relative chaos where i was scum.



but here is a question,
if you lynch me today and i am townwill that put us a lylo tomorrow?

In my opinion, unlikely.

unvote

why did you think that lylo was "unlikely"?

[tubby216]

or why don't we nolynch today and see waht happens tonite?

that would still give us better odds yes?

[Ectomancer]

xyl was unrecruited. meaning he belonged to neither,
the only reason xyl thought me scum was do to my preformance in his game xyl's relative chaos where i was scum.



but here is a question,
if you lynch me today and i am townwill that put us a lylo tomorrow?

In my opinion, unlikely.

unvote

why did you think that lylo was "unlikely"?

Off the hip. You should have seen the spiraled loops of conversation I had written before that last post. It helps me work things out when I'm making a post because often I will find the fallacies as I'm typing. Sometimes I like to leave it in so that people can see the train of my thought, but I find that more often than not it just confuses people.

[Ectomancer]

or why don't we nolynch today and see waht happens tonite?

that would still give us better odds yes?

I don't know. Someone else take a look.

[Yosarian2]

Alright OGML, the mass claim thing. We've got 8 alive and we think we have as many as 3 scum in 2 different scum groups. There also appears to be a vig/sk accounting for the 3rd kill,

unless

we have 3 scum groups of 2. (Mafia traitor role always bugs me, and from Yos' response, I guess I still dont really fully understand the role)

Well, the "mafia traitor" role is pretty vaugely defined, and every time I see it, it's a litttle different. Usually a mafia traitor is already aligned with one mafia group from the start of the game, sometimes they know who they're aligned with, sometimes they don't, sometimes they have kind of a role-cop-ish role and have to find their scumbuddies (although I think that varient is more often called a "mafia spy"). Sometimes they get recruited into a full member that mafia group if the mafia if the mafia group either targets them for a recruitment, or sometimes it happens if the mafia group tries to kill them. But I don't know what's going on this game; it could be that he was some kind of mafia traitor that could have been recruited by either mafia group, but I'm not really sure how that would work or what (if any) his win condition was when he died then.

Anyhow, with todays lynch and those 3, we end up with 4 kills.

Lets look at the numbers and this is my best guess and open to debate.

Red-2
Purple-1
SK-1
Town-4
or no SK and Town - 5

Right; we don't know if the third kill is a SK or a vig.

If it's 2-1-5 with a vig, then lynching red would be ideal, but lynching purple today isn't that bad; we'd then go into night with 7 people, so red gets a shot, vig gets a shot, and tommorow if the vig hits we have a "1 scum out of 5" situation; if the vig misses it'd be "2 scum out of 5"; either one of those is winnable, and all in all our chances wouldn't be bad. So, if we've got a vig, lynching a purple today might not be bad.

If there's a SK, though, and there's no crosskills, then if we lynch purple (or the SK) we could be facing a "2 red, 1 SK, 2 town" situation tommorow, and that's a LOT uglier, IMHO; still winnable-ish, but it's basicaly out of the town's hands at that point.

That looks scary to me. But I don't think I agree with a mass claim. If there are any remaining protection type roles, I dont think it wise to expose them, assuming of course that they dont protect red...

Possible. Any protective, roleblocking, unkillable, or vigging town roles tonight and tommorow could help our odds. Then again, would scum really be shooting for power roles? Shouldn't they be trying to kill each other instead at this point?

1 of those bullets is reds.
2 of those bullets will be firing into a crowd containing both red and 5 others.
1 bullet will be 25% influenced by red

So. We can gamble on one of those hitting red.

We have the benefit of seeing the result of the first one before nightfall. If it is

not

red, then here was what needs to happen.

Purple, do not submit a kill tonight

Hmm. So, you think Purple shouldn't shoot, in order to prevent a situation where there's only 4 left tommorow and 2 are red?

I guess that makes sense; but if Red and the SK both kill townies, then you're talking about a "2 red, 1 purple, 1 SK, 1 townie" situation tommorow, which is a nightmare.

However, I think today that we should at least provide guidance in the form of placing a vote for our lynch target today, and then posting your choice for the Vig/SK tonight. I think that's a nice way to further establish voting patterns before tonight and tomorrow (kind of a 2 for 1 day with no night kill).

Yeah, it's something worth discussing, I suppose. If there's a SK, he should wants to kill red at this point as much as we want him to kill red.