Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[Huntress]

Vote Count

Qwints 3 - (Corvuus, Apothecary, MacavityLock)
MacavityLock 2 - (LLamaFluff, Qwints)

Not voting 2 - (Elmo, Jazzmyn)

With seven players alive, it takes four votes to lynch.

Deadline is

Saturday 21st February 10.00 am GMT.

[qwints]

"Well, I don't think he's scummy, but I feel like being lazy and finding the easiest alternate bandwagon, given other peoples' suspicions." This is OMGUS, but I think it's well-deserved.

Vote: qwintz

.

I strongly reject your notion that I've been lazy, but I'm honestly not seeing anyone standing out as scummy. You've probably got a 1 in 3 chance of being scum while I know I'm town. The deadline is Saturday and I've got to advocate for a wagon that has a chance of succeeding.

[LlamaFluff]

Wait... why are we thinking of lynching a doctor claim again?

[Corvuus]

huh.

i thought i unvoted.

unvote

ML: I don't understand your post/point being made.

Qwints and ML just voting for each other since deadline is coming and they are the most likely lynch?

And then the reasoning is... "too lazy, etc." to look for scum/think of why, etc. so just voting the 'easy way'?

I don't think that makes sense even if it wasn't 'unknown' versus 'doc' as the potential deadline lynch.

At any rate, I think you should claim now ML. The deadline is saturday and I can't imagine a 'doc' being lynched at deadline over you.

If you need me to vote for you before you claim, then I'm ok with that too.

Corv

[Elmo]

vote LlamaFluff

952 stinks. You're saying you think he's town, but not actually trying to stop him being lynched; focussing on his claim without interacting at all with the case against him is the perfect way to set yourself up for "I told you so" tomorrow. (If qwints is scum, then it's obviously outright awful.)

[Elmo]

ML: I thought I posted this, I remember typing it. Bah. Basically, in a scumchat game something weird happened, and I figured I was probably getting lynched regardless, so I spent all the day attacking my scumbuddy, who went on to win in endgame. It's kind of like bussing in reverse, because it's me who gets lynched instead of him.

See, it doesn't make as much sense here, because I wouldn't have put Apoth's odds of going all the way very high considering day 1. But a problem I've always had is that sometimes scum do stuff that doesn't make any sense, even after the game. If SC was scum with Apoth, then if he gets lynched, then Apoth looks better, and vice versa; the meta on this site is such that scum will sometimes just reflex-bus without really thinking it through.

tl;dr - SC might have seen he'd be lynched and attack Apoth precisely coz of that.

I don't think it's highly likely, but it's a viable possibility, and the number of town reads I have gives me pause.

[MacavityLock]

Wait... why are we thinking of lynching a doctor claim again?

This is not Day 1. Doc claim doesn't mean you're immune. You should know that. I still like qwintz lynch, but given his failure to make a good case on me with his consistant vote and this act of protection, LF has definitely moved on to my willing-to-lynch list.

ML: I don't understand your post/point being made.

My point is as follows: Given peoples' suspicions, I seem to be the easiest backup lynch. However, I am not the only one. Multiple people have mentioned suspicions of Apoth, LF, and to some extent Jazz. So, qwintz said earlier:

ML, you're right. I missed your vote when going through your posts in iso (probably because it was at the end of a line.) I did note that you have consistently put pressure on apoth. I also wrote that OGML's behavior led to you ceasing to suspect him. I really don't see you as scum.

And yet, he is voting for me. Therefore, it feels to me like he's trying to weasel out of his own lynch in the easiest way possible with no regards to his actual suspicions. This is scummy.

At any rate, I think you should claim now ML. The deadline is saturday and I can't imagine a 'doc' being lynched at deadline over you.

If you need me to vote for you before you claim, then I'm ok with that too.

I am going to go same policy that qwintz did: When people voting for me + people requesting a claim from me >= 4, I will claim. I believe that number is now 3: LF, qwintz, Corv.

Very simply, the bandwagon on me is crap. I refuted every point against me. I have shown that Jazz's case is based on a fallacy: either something she forgot about or something she lied about. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt for now, but she still hasn't answered me on this and her lurkiness is making me doubt her that much more. Corv still hasn't made clear his case against me. And qwintz doesn't see me as scum.

[qwints]

Here are the two biggest posts from LF on his case against ML.

LF's post 39 (781) on Day 2

LF, why do you think Macavity's scum(my)? What's your opinion of Atlas - not the role i.e. Qwints, the posts made by the player Atlas previously? Also.. why llama fluff?

ML comes off as scummy mostly due to two things, firstly the way he played the SC wagon during D1. I dont think was ever actually a part of the wagon vote wise, but there were comments (like his 33) that make me think otherwise. When the SC wagon came to a head near the end of the day, he stayed off it and continued to push the Apoc wagon which was the only other viable one. It seems like he made his mark on the SC wagon but chose not to cash in it.

Second would be the early push for Apoc today. I really dont see Apoc flipping scum after the strength that SC pushed for that lynch when there was a town wagon available in Ythill, and the MM wagon which both seemed to hold water. Also most of the posts from ML yesterday seemed to suggest a SC-MM pairing more then anything else, so trading MM for Apoc today when SC was proven scum looks wierd.

Rest is just about process of elimination. I think OGML and Apoc are def town. Jazz, qwints and you are pretty close based on actions and just this gut read I have from Jazz. Corv has gone back and forth for me, D1 he looked really town, D2 I got a few warning flags up. Makes me want to look into closer but I really havent had the time to put him under the magnifine glass. Basically just leaves Ceph and if that doesnt end the game, ML. By the way if Ceph is last scum I am going to be pissed I waited for qwints.
.

tldr:

1. ML attacked SC early on, but didn't join the deadline wagon.
2. ML attacked apoth early on day 2.
3. Process of elimination

Here's the list of players who lynched SC : OhGodMyLife, Qwints, LLamaFluff, Cephrir, Elmo, StrangerCoug.


LF's post 51 on Day 3

Vote ML

More or less for the reasons in 781 which I know he replied to, but I still like the vote. Will respond to his response later as im running behind in a few other games right now too.

My response is "Please give me more arguments to refute." I already answered your 781 questions, and if you have more, let me know.

Still swamped with classes right now, near the end of the week it always gets worse too so I wont be able to get up everything I have, but here is most.

ML comes off as scummy mostly due to two things, firstly the way he played the SC wagon during D1. I dont think was ever actually a part of the wagon vote wise, but there were comments (like his 33) that make me think otherwise. When the SC wagon came to a head near the end of the day, he stayed off it and continued to push the Apoc wagon which was the only other viable one. It seems like he made his mark on the SC wagon but chose not to cash in it.

You're correct that I was never on the SC wagon vote-wise. Early in the day, I had some suspicions, but he was never at the top of my list. Over the course of page 14, my suspicions spiked due to his voting and subsequent unvoting of Ythill. I also did not like 337 at all. He was then at L-1, so being on his wagon with a vote would have meant a hammer, which I was not willing to do at that point. He then claimed doc, and I backed off like everybody else did.

This I still think is one of the bigger points against you. Your post 33 (11/20) was the first post since your 19 (11/12) which even mentioned SC in some suspicious light. Back in your 19 the extent of what was said even was

SC, I mentioned early on as having suspicions of. He has not done anything to remove those suspicions. Nothing new to add...
...MiteyMouse, you [Corv], and SC are my top targets right now. I'm still waiting for Primate to say anything.

This time before that was WAY back in his fourth post, which was when we were leaving the random stage

In fact, I think that people who don't see that are jumping on the easier Ceph-bandwagon. The first semi-suspicious thing that happens in this game, and you don't want to reason it through? Also, I'm not following on Gorillaz-scum at all. So, yeah, I'm going to

unvote

him.

FoS: StrangerCoug and MiteyMouse

. In fact,

Vote: MiteyMouse

. StrangerCoug at least is saying original things. MM is just following the trail SC is blazing.

---

This just seems like a suspicion that was just there and never acted on. He called SC scummy in the early game and perpetually ignored him for the rest of the game, although SC always was a top suspect when asked by people. Smells like a fake-suspicion to me more then anything else. Going from suspect but never mentioned to "I will hammer if needed" in nothing flat... just really sits poorly with me.

Is the qwints case anything outside of calling SC scum before the flip?

I'll note that ML answered these points in detail after they were raised.

Now look at post 927, LF's summary of the case on ML

He intereacted to the extent where he called him scummy early in the game, then really backed off and didnt mention him for most of the game after that. Later in the game when SC became a wagon again, he hopped back on which just reads like a weak bussing move to me more then anything else.

I dont see much of a case on anyone else really, just have had a really hard time getting into this game so not a whole lot has progressed past gut scum or town reads. So part interactions, part the Apoc vote (who I still say is likely town) and part just PoE.

Note that he says that ML was on the SC wagon when he wasn't. He also says he has had a hard time getting into the game despite his huge walls of text on day 1 against YThill. I also don't think he has contributed much new content in the past couple weeks (though he did mention something about midterms).

Right now I think the thing to do is go back and re-read day 1 and see if there was any scummy motivation for the attack on YThill. I get a very town off of LF until the end of day 2, then his shorter posts seem like they could be scummy.

On the other hand, I need to review what exactly ML did in response to the second SC wagon. Right now, I think that LF might have a slightly higher chance of being scum. I'm in a bind however, because there aren't sufficient votes for a LF lynch unless corvuus or jazz is willing to vote for LF.

But since there is still a bit of time before deadline,

unvote, vote Llama Fluff

as he has been slightly scummier than ML.

[MacavityLock]

On the other hand, I need to review what exactly ML did in response to the second SC wagon.

You won't find anything. From my iso 63:

As for the late SC wagon, it occurred over the course of 1 RL day when I was not on-site due to finals. Seriously, feel free to check across every game I was in. You'll find no posts because I wasn't around. Sadly, I can't give any more proof than that.

[Apothecary]

Qwints, I'm not liking how you seem to be jumping from person to person. First off, you put a lot of pressure on me and then, seemingly out of nowhere, jump onto MacavityLock. After less than a page later, you switch your vote to LlamaFluff. I know you claimed you would push a wagon on him if there was support, but jeez... Right now, I feel my vote is vindicated.

[Corvuus]

sorry, been busy for a bit.

is there any possibility that we can all vote for a deadline extension (a few days to a week?) since it is very important what happens next and I don't know if people will be around or have enough time before current deadline.

If deadline extension isn't possible, then I really hope ML claims (someone else asks him too, or he considers deadline in 2 days) since they are both at 2 votes and I would rather

1. lynch instead of no lynch.
2. not lynch the doc claim.

I can post more reasonings and such later in a bit, but I think we need to figure this out soon.

Corv

[qwints]

Apoth, I have made very clear that I'm not sure who is scum, but there is a deadline breathing down my neck. I jumped onto ML (as I said) because a deadline is approaching and ML appeared to be the only alternative. I voted for LF because a re-read had a few scummy indicators - namely portraying himself as disinterested in the game despite fairly detailed cases he had laid out and misstating that ML had been on the SC wagon. Combine that with his short and fairly unhelpful posts today and I think he may have the highest chance of being scum.

Right now, I'm looking at lynching LF or ML. I think Apoth is playing very scummy, but SC's bussing is strong evidence that he is town.

BTW, where the hell is Jazz? She'd said she have more on Monday, but hasn't posted since she said that on Sunday. There have been a few times she's promised content that's been a while in coming, and it's getting pretty frustrating.

[MacavityLock]

Corv, why do you refuse to state your case on me, even though you're willing to lynch me?

[Jazzmyn]

I still have a hard time believing qwints' doctor claim in light of Atlas' posts when the claim was initially made and qwints' posts after he substituted in while SC's claim was still on the table. I also have a hard time believing that a doctor would choose to protect me rather than OGML on Night 2. OGML was the obvious choice for protection as a very strong and very experienced player who had done a fabulous job on Day 1 in leading the StrangerCougar lynch, etc.

I've read all of qwints' explanations in regard to his claim and his allegedly protecting me instead of OGML on Night 2, and while some of them do indeed sound reasonable and plausible, I am just not getting that 'ring of truth' feeling from them that I would have preferred. It probably doesn't help that qwints never did address directly my posts to him about his claim, despite being asked to do so.

Then, he recently voted for MacavityLock, apparently on the basis that he would rather ML be lynched than him even though he isn't convinced that ML is scum, but because ML is a potentially viable alternative lynch today.

Then, as soon as Elmo voted for Llama, qwints unvoted MacavityLock and voted Llama, apparently on the basis that he would rather Llama be lynched than him even though he isn't convinced that Llama is scum, but because Llama is a potentially viable alternative lynch today.

While I certainly understand the emotional aspect and frustration that would lead a real doctor to try to save himself by jumping on to another viable wagon, it is not pro-town to do so if you don't actually think the person whose wagon you're jumping on to is scum, just to save yourself.

Regarding LlamaFluff, I keep getting this nagging feeling about him, primarily because of how often he has mentioned me in his posts, how often he has claimed to be waiting for me to post before he takes action because I'm town, etc. If he mentioned me once or twice, no biggie, but mention me repeatedly and it begins to feel like scum trying to buddy up to me (in this case, perhaps because I was of the view that Llama got the better of the argument between him and Ythill on Day 1, because I was strongly of the view that Atlas was town, and because I thought Ythill was scummy). Llama's posts at the end of Day 2 calling upon me to post before he would cast his vote, to the point where he even delivered an ultimatum of sorts, saying that if I didn't post with a specific time at which I would present my most recent thoughts on my then-current re-read and analysis, he would hammer Cehphir, was particularly troubling as the underlying message seemed to be something like, "I am going to hammer Cephrir but if he flips town, blame Jazzmyn because she didn't post in accordance with the deadline that I arbitrarily set for her". Subsequently came his further comments that I am obv-town, which are being used by qwints (along with other posts by others re my townieness, not Llama's exclusively) as part of his justification for allegedly protecting me on Night 2 instead of OGML.

Here's something I don't understand:

I just cant ignore the ammount of WIFOM behind scum claiming the same role and not just countering each other.

I don't understand this. Why would a second scum counter StrangerCougar's doctor claim on Day 1 unless there was a second scum with his butt on the lynching block? The two players who were at risk of being lynched were SC and Apoth, not SC and Atlas/qwints, and Llama keeps saying that Apoth is town, "def town", etc. Please explain this, Llama.

In any event, my suspects remain MacavityLock, qwints, Llama and Apoth. So, as I see things at present, the most likely scum group possibilities are among these four players, which means one of these combinations:
SC/ML/Llama
SC/ML/qwints
SC/ML/Apoth
SC/Llama/qwints
SC/Llama/Apoth
SC/qwints/Apoth

The problem is that I don't know which is the most likely to be scum among the four, or which is the most likely grouping. I will think some more and read some more (and I will also answer some specific posts in the interim) and will definitely vote before the deadline, as should everyone.

Regards,
Jazz

[Elmo]

Shoulda hit submit on this a while ago, bad habit. Was made before 962 was posted. Hi, Jazz, I'm amused by our overlapping suspect lists.

Qwints, I'm not liking how you seem to be jumping from person to person. First off, you put a lot of pressure on me and then, seemingly out of nowhere, jump onto MacavityLock. After less than a page later, you switch your vote to LlamaFluff. I know you claimed you would push a wagon on him if there was support, but jeez... Right now, I feel my vote is vindicated.

This doesn't make any sense. If Qwints is town, then Qwints is 100% sure that Qwints is town. Even if hypothetically Qwints was 90% sure that MacavityLock was town, he should still prefer to lynch MacavityLock than lynch Qwints, since there's a 10% chance of lynching scum vs. a 0% chance. Seriously, this is a bad post - provide a better reason for keeping your vote on Qwints, post-haste.

Something really really puts me off a qwints lynch. Not the claim itself. He just seems to be reacting townly, in particular switching his vote to LF instead of ML seems pro-town because there's been more support evidenced for ML, so that shows he's really thinking about who's more likely to be scum as opposed to just lynching someone other than him. I think a mafioso would be pushing ML right now. (Okay, it's technically possible that he's scum with ML, but I really don't think so.)

I am strongly opposed to a MacavityLock lynch, he's playing markedly differently from when I saw him as scum, and I haven't seen a semblance of a case against him. Corvuus is painfully obv town. I'm not 110% sold on Jazz, but she definitely seems at least townish, and I'd be real hesitant to lynch her unless something major came up. That don't leave too many people.

Unofficial vote count

Qwints (2) <- Apothecary, MacavityLock
LLamaFluff (2) <- Elmo, Qwints
MacavityLock <- LLamaFluff
Not voting: Jazzmyn, Corvuus

We only need 3 votes on someone to lynch at deadline, so two wagons with two votes each does not really phase me. Literally only one person needs to be around before deadline to ensure some kind of lynch.

Specifically, the above only leaves qwints, Apothecary, and LlamaFluff. I haven't reread enough to look at linkages between them, but nothing really jumps out at me. I have actually reread a little and it makes Atlas (= Qwints) look more town, Zeppo (= Jazzmyn) look more town, SwmintyLost (= LlamaFluff) look scummy. So, yeah, I really like a LlamaLynch today, actually.

Cannot believe my shift on qwints, but whatever, Atlas was pretty town.

Mod

: I support a deadline extension, pretty please? Also, could you prod Jazz, and ensure she knows when the deadline is? Thanks.

[Corvuus]

ML: i didn't say I refuse to state a case against you.

I said I don't have time right now, the deadline is in 2 days, I want to extend, have more time, etc. etc.

but hey, sure, if you read me explicitly saying my position as "i refuse to state a case against you but i'm willing to lynch you" then go ahead. It doesn't bother me, and I'm not the one who is going into a 2 day deadline lynch against a claimed doc.

My post was to try to "help" you in the sense that if you claim now (presumably townie since I assume no more doc claims and having 4 power roles (watcher, tracker for sure, maybe qwints doc, etc.) would be kind of unusual to me but hey, You don't want to claim and apparently no one cares or is interested in getting a deadline extension so 'apathy' may end up killing you. not me.

------------------------

If you want the short condensed version of my position, then i'm not convinced 100% that you are scum, (but I can see points against you) but the other part is that it comes down to a kind of "process of elimination".

I.e. Elmo and Jazz I get good townie feelings from, Qwints I am so-so on but I am hesitant to lynch his doc-claim compared to lynching scummy SC doc claim, and Apothy I am so-so on but leaning more likely town than not due to busing but i do dislike the 'level of activity and contribution'.

So if it is two scum left, then by a kind of +/- scum point system, I have you (ML) as being more likely scum compared to other players/townies.

--------

Either way, deadline is coming, and I asked you to claim now since I have a feeling that it is going to go badly for you.

If you have ample time, then go make a case on someone or ask for deadline extension. I'd rather not make a hasty decision when it feels like people aren't around so much right now but, as I said before, I will not let the day end with a 'no lynch'.

Corv

[Jazzmyn]

I am strongly opposed to a MacavityLock lynch, he's playing markedly differently from when I saw him as scum

I am not opposed to a MacavityLock lynch, as he remains one of my top suspects, and he is playing very similarly to how he played in the game I was in when he was scum.

This is probably why meta isn't a reliable indicator of things most of the time.

Regards,
Jazz

[Corvuus]

hmm, cross posting.

I haven't re-read llama so i will check that out along with ML.

C

[MacavityLock]

ML: i didn't say I refuse to state a case against you.

I said I don't have time right now, the deadline is in 2 days, I want to extend, have more time, etc. etc.

No, no, that's fine, just say that next time. But if an extension is not forthcoming, and you still want to jump on my wagon without a case, that's a blatantly anti-town thing to do. I have a very hard time with "process of elimination" as the case against me.

By the way, I have no problem with a deadline extension, but the fact is that we've had ample time today, and have met that with generally low activity. I could totally understand if our mod would prefer that the day ends under the current deadline.

I'm not the one who is going into a 2 day deadline lynch against a claimed doc.

Can you explain why you're as opposed as you are to lynching the claimed doc at this stage of the game?

----

I am not opposed to a MacavityLock lynch, as he remains one of my top suspects, and he is playing very similarly to how he played in the game I was in when he was scum.

No response to my point that your case on me is based on a fallacy?

[Jazzmyn]

No response to my point that your case on me is based on a fallacy?

My case on you is not at all based on a fallacy, as much as you would like it to be so. Remove the single word "complete" from a single post of mine (which is the entire basis of your claim that the case on you is based on a fallacy) and the case remains exactly what I have previously said it is. The fact that you are grasping desperately on to a single word out of all of my posts, in an effort to pretend that there is no case against you is quite ridiculous. Your post about that is one of the ones to which I referred in the last paragraph of my post 963, but again, your taking a single word out of all of my posts while simultaneously ignoring all the rest of my words and posts doesn't really need much of a rebuttal.

Regards,
Jazz

[MacavityLock]

I'm just saying your case is flawed and you hadn't yet responded to the fact that it's flawed, or even acknowledged my point. If you had at least acknowledged it, I would have been fine waiting for your answer.

[Elmo]

Jazz: Mhh. I should probably read more but meta usually works quite well for me.

Atlas' response around SC is pretty much non-existent, he just goes pushing Ythill a bit. The thing is, in that situation, either you just straight-out counterclaim or you have to hide your role such that the mafia can't pick up on it. Otherwise you get the worst of both worlds, you get NKed that night but without getting scum lynched that day. So I can't reeeally fault him for that if he is a doc. qwints' first post ("1. I really don't like the SC doc claim. The odds of running a doc up on d1 should be fairly low and I'll bet that false claims are at least as likely as real ones.") seems pretty consistent with what I'd expect from a doc. Herp.

WHAT?!?

Major HoS: LlamaFluff

Well, I think another

FoS: LlamaFluff

is warranted anyway.

This makes me lol. He's stretching for reasons to be very obviously suspicious of LF, yea?

I will re-skim the ML thing tomorrow. /zzz

[Corvuus]

ML: I thought I did say that but I didn't have alot of time so maybe it is what I thought but not necessarily what came across in what I wrote.

As for having "ample" time, I *am* busy and not have alot of time to sit and re-read, collect my thoughts etc. until the weekend and the deadline is this weekend. As for me "waiting until the last minute", i was here reading, posting and thinking about Qwints doc claim and such. I took several days of posts here but I find Qwints comments/actions acceptable as a doc. I stated why just a few posts ago.

So we could blame town for low activity and such (we are all guilty) and it is anti-town to lynch without generating information or discussion (which is why I support a deadline extension of just a few days, heck even to monday so we get the weekend) but it is 'more' anti-town to not lynch anyone at all and that is just how it happens i suppose, with deadline lynches just happening and not being 'the best' choice but just 'a' choice. I'd rather we think more about it since it should be lylo tomorrow but mod hasn't made any comments yet.


-------

at any rate, to make it short and 'lay all the cards on the table'.

I have to re-read Llama to understand better what jazz/elmo point out and I don't know if I will be able to do that until tomorrow late. That gives a short time for discussion/reply, etc.

I won't agree to lynch Elmo or Jazz; Qwints I consider acceptable doc-claim for now. The remaining players, I could see lynched today. So if you want to survive deadline lynch, then your best bet is to make a case/wagon one of them.

Corv

[Huntress]

is there any possibility that we can all vote for a deadline extension (a few days to a week?) since it is very important what happens next and I don't know if people will be around or have enough time before current deadline.

Mod: I support a deadline extension, pretty please?

Activity has picked up so I would be happy to extend the deadline if a majority want it. Let me know in the thread, or by PM if you prefer.

[qwints]

I support a deadline extension. I'm going to be away from the computer from 9 to 5 tomorrow (US central time) and I wouldn't want to miss the end of the day.

I would like LF to explain why he's added so little content after my claim today. A defense against Elmo's points would also be useful.

I don't like apoth's phrase that "his vote is vindicated." That suggests to me that he didn't feel like he had a good reason for his vote when he first made it, that it was "opportunistic."

ML, could you explain who your top suspects are at the moment and why? I understand that you've voted me for voting for the most likely alternative lynch when I didn't think you were that much more likely than anyone else to be scum. You also seem to have expressed suspicion of LF and Jazz.