Mini 740 - Communiqu├® Mafia 2: Game Over and the Winner is..

[dahill1]

@mod - Can you still send communiques after receiving your night result, even if you would be dead in the morning?
Would there be a set timeframe available in between for them to take place, or would it be sheer lucky timing?

Good question

[Ectomancer]

I think that:
- if roffman lied (scum), then hohum (unknown, leaning scum a little)
- if roffman told the truth (town), then hohum (very prob town)
That is how I work it out. I could reasonably believe the roffman bussed hohum.

This makes little sense to me. If Roffman lied, yes there is a slight possibility of an unstandard bussing, however, with the no reveal giving us nothing on the actual relation, the bus wont have much affect and if he is telling the truth, he is an intermediary and thus has no bearing on whether Hohum is scum or not.
You say "reasonably believe" in a manner that makes me believe you mean "likely believe if he is lying". I don't see why a bus would be more likely than Roffman claiming a guilty on Hohum

but without the responsibility for the result if we could even know what it was.

Really.

there (almost) definitely

exists

a game mechanic by which Roffman could have received that 2nd communique

Correction:

existed

last game not exists. I suspect the power of a double communique is quite possible but it outweighed by the chance of scum being together in the loop or the chance of roffman lying.

Granted, but it also does not mean unlikely to be in this game. I would be more willing to agree that some of the actual roles may be different. (Like a couple one shot investigations in lieu of a backup cop for example)

Anyhow, at this point I want to ask one last time (and hopefully several of you will back this request), if you had the one shot investigation and we need to lynch Hohum, please step forward. I just realized why you might not want to do it, which is we would want to lynch you due to the no reveal. All I can say to that is I will not push for your lynch until an investigator type has had opportunity to look at you and get a message out to whomever they trust. Even should you get lynched, a for certain 1 scum for 1 town is a good deal.

I thought we had gone over this already . Still in the tiny, tiny chance it is true I agree with you.

We did go over it, but I can understand a reluctant townie who may plan to reveal later or via message to someone they trust. I'm still trying to convince them if they exist that revealing is a far better move than keeping quiet today. And acknowledging your tiny tiny chance, I also agree that it is not likely that there is a

real

one shot cop, but we shall see (or not).

[Ectomancer]

@mod - Can you still send communiques after receiving your night result, even if you would be dead in the morning?
Would there be a set timeframe available in between for them to take place, or would it be sheer lucky timing?

Good question

Heheh.


Doh, messed up quote tags above.

[Juls]

Also Juls, you may want to send your package where you want, but you have little choice in the matter if town decides where to send it. You'll do it or be lynched.

I will take all suggestions into consideration, but ultimately I will be deciding. If you choose to lynch me for that then it is your loss.

Also, I will say again...I unvoted as a precaution. I saw a lot of votes headed roffman's way and I wanted to wait until all discussion was exhausted in case scum decided to hop on (if they weren't already). That paired with my rise in suspicions of hohum, it was better to be safe than sorry. It is a perfectly legitimate reason for unvoting.

I haven't had time to do a reread yet as I stated earlier. I am trying to keep up with the thread because I don't like getting behind, so a reread is second priority. I also have another game approaching deadline as well.

Speaking of which....I have seen chatter about it but not sure if I have actually seen a date...

@mod: when is our deadline

[Ectomancer]

Well, if you are town it would be your loss as well. I don't see why you would cost us in order to be obstinate.

Unvoting as a precaution is a valid answer. My problem with it is that you say you didn't drop it, but I don't see you even mentioning Roffman again after your unvote. In your defense, there were accusations coming your way and you were talking to Hohum and myself quite a bit, along with specifics of your role. But I don't see any indication that you still had Roffman on your mind.

What is your current assessment of him?

[Juls]

Well, if you are town it would be your loss as well. I don't see why you would cost us in order to be obstinate.

You answered this yourself when you said...

I realize you don't like me controlling things, but realize that I don't currently trust anyone else to do it.

I don't trust that scum won't try to insert themselves into the decision. Also, I don't want scum to know who I am sending it to. My decision is very pro-town because I know I am town and know I will make a decision in the best interest of the town.

My thoughts on Roffman are unchanged but I think it is the weakest of the scenarios that have been discussed. I would feel much better with the scenario in which we knew who sent the fake communique and be able to lynch both that person and hohum for a guaranteed scum lynch. If we were at deadline, however, based on what is before me today, I would choose to lynch Roffman. I am going to reread tomorrow and see if I see anything from hohum. I also want to reread Roffman and see if I see any links between the two other than the obvious mystery communique.

[Budja]

Now, should we get through both of those, with nobody stepping forward, we can almost be certain (90-95% if you want a number) that we have confirmed both Roffman and Hohum as town.

I disagree with this. 90% is a ridiculous exaggeration. I stress again, We do not know if a second communique exists.

You are still taking this assumption as fact. Now if anyone, anyone at all, has a one-shot day ability they have used, it would be good to reveal it to the town now. It can't hurt.
I don't think making such strong assumptions as you currently are Ectomancter, is helping us.

Juls, I realize you don't like me controlling things, but realize that I don't currently trust anyone else to do it. If we can clear Roffman and/or Hohum, I will be more than willing to let someone else have the reigns. I would also like to point out that I have certainly not been controlling every aspect of this game. I yielded verification order to Casey and open debate. I'm also unable to control anything where that control is not given. I can't make you do things you don't want.

Also Juls, you may want to send your package where you want, but you have little choice in the matter if town decides where to send it. You'll do it or be lynched.

Please also note Ecto that you are not in charge of the town.

You have your say and that is all, we (hopefully) do not mindlessly follow your ideas.

You have no more say than anyone else and your attempts to control the town are irritating.
hohum has already pointed this out and I agree with what he says.

I would not have followed the first plan. I followed the modified plan as it had a clear objective.
I will follow your ideas if they are sensible and I agree with them.

[Ectomancer]

Well, if you are town it would be your loss as well. I don't see why you would cost us in order to be obstinate.

You answered this yourself when you said...

I realize you don't like me controlling things, but realize that I don't currently trust anyone else to do it.

I don't trust that scum won't try to insert themselves into the decision. Also, I don't want scum to know who I am sending it to. My decision is very pro-town because I know I am town and know I will make a decision in the best interest of the town.

Touche'

I'm waiting for the mod to determine the answer to my question before proceeding any further down that path anyhow.

I don't want to lynch anyone at this point unless we have either A: a one shot cop claim, or B: a 2nd communique claim that did not go to Roffman.
We really need to know when a potential deadline is, because within a certain of period of time of that I am going to give up on either claim appearing and consider both Roffman and Hohum to be town.

[roffman]

Just a warning, the mod has answered your question. I asked some questions about my role pre-game as well, receiving the same response.

[Ectomancer]

Please also note Ecto that you are not in charge of the town.

You have your say and that is all, we (hopefully) do not mindlessly follow your ideas.

You have no more say than anyone else and your attempts to control the town are irritating.
hohum has already pointed this out and I agree with what he says.

I would not have followed the first plan. I followed the modified plan as it had a clear objective.
I will follow your ideas if they are sensible and I agree with them.

You make me laugh. I don't know how many times people have told me that they won't do what I tell them to do right after they already did it. It never ceases to amaze me.

You've got a PC, use it. You've got a mind, use it too. You got a problem with me taking a lead, then step up to the plate. Take a swing, let's see what you got. You prefer a waffling town? I find a waffling town an easy target. I've gone into great detail explaining both what I believe and where I derived those beliefs. I've weighed probabilities and given my derivation of those probabilities.

You on the other hand dismiss a carefully researched and detailed assessment with basically paraphrased "this is crap", calling it ridiculous.

You are still taking this assumption as fact. Now if anyone, anyone at all, has a one-shot day ability they have used, it would be good to reveal it to the town now. It can't hurt.

And I've given details on how to determine as best as we possibly can if it is fact.

You are also taking the short straw in my mind insisting that we

don't

have them, or at least that the probability of that is 50/50. If that is your stance, then I take it that your opinion is that we shouldn't bother looking at the first game at all?

You are now coming very close to saying that "We can't know anything." That's a scum statement in my little black heart. It is a method to break down the town's confidence in anything it does, making it easier to sway in the direction scum desires. You are absolutely right that we cant know anything for certain at this point, which is exactly why

I've laid out a plan of action

that will improve our search by narrowing probabilities.

Please also note Ecto that you are not in charge of the town.

You have your say and that is all, we (hopefully) do not mindlessly follow your ideas.

You have no more say than anyone else and your attempts to control the town are irritating.
hohum has already pointed this out and I agree with what he says.

I would not have followed the first plan. I followed the modified plan as it had a clear objective.
I will follow your ideas if they are sensible and I agree with them.

Ha! I get a chuckle everytime. I don't know how many times people have told me that they won't do what I tell them to do right after they already done it. It never ceases to amaze me.

You've got a PC, use it. You've got a mind, use it too. You got a problem with me taking a lead, then step up to the plate. Take a swing, let's see what you got. You prefer a waffling town? I find a waffling town an easy target. I've gone into great detail explaining both what I believe and where I derived those beliefs. I've weighed probabilities and given my derivation of those probabilities.

You on the other hand dismiss a carefully researched and detailed assessment with basically an offhand "this is crap", calling it ridiculous.

You are still taking this assumption as fact. Now if anyone, anyone at all, has a one-shot day ability they have used, it would be good to reveal it to the town now. It can't hurt.

And I've given details on how to determine as best as we possibly can if it is fact.

You are also taking the short straw in my mind insisting that we

don't

have the 2nd communique abilities being given out, or at least that the probability of that is 50/50. I take it that your opinion is that we shouldn't bother looking at the first game at all?
You are now coming very close to saying that "We can't know anything." That's a scum statement in my little black heart. It is a method to break down the town's confidence in anything it does, making it easier to sway in the direction scum desires. You are absolutely right that we cant know anything for certain at this point, which is exactly why

I've laid out a plan of action

that will improve our search by narrowing probabilities.

Where is yours? Shall we wander blithely into the dark woods? I think you may find that a harder road than simply throwing stones.
Should you not have one at hand, at least give me the courtesy of a thorough dismissal of mine. It deserves more than a snort. Shoot it down successfully

or

using the same material, and even better, build a more beautiful replacement that we all can love.

[Ectomancer]

Just a warning, the mod has answered your question. I asked some questions about my role pre-game as well, receiving the same response.

He could simply have said "I wont tell you."

Good question means to me, "I don't know". Hence, I was waiting for him to come back with how he decided that mechanic will work.

@mod - if you don't actually intend to answer that question give me a razz.

[Budja]

Ok, please stop exaggerating my views.

I will post more about this later but for now I want to make this clear.

I am certainly not insisting the a 2nd communique does not exist. I don't know where that came from. I am simply arguing against your assumption that it most likely exists.

Also I think I said I have no problem following you if I agree with you. I already have. But I don't like your assumption that you are controlling us.

[Ectomancer]

Ok, please stop exaggerating my views.

I will post more about this later but for now I want to make this clear.

I am certainly not insisting the a 2nd communique does not exist. I don't know where that came from. I am simply arguing against your assumption that it most likely exists.

Also I think I said I have no problem following you if I agree with you. I already have. But I don't like your assumption that you are controlling us.

By arguing

against

it most likely existing, you are arguing

for

it

not

existing, or at least the probability being equal. I'm not exaggerating the view. Its like a seesaw. If you place one of the views higher, then you are automatically placing the other view lower. Do you see?
When a mechanic exists in an original game, and that mechanic is part of what makes that game

unique

from the other games, I'm really really inclined to believe that mechanic exists in this game as well. If it

doesn't

exist, then the it is far easier for the setup to be gamed. Some people (Casey) don't like gaming the setup, but in a themed game, it is just as crucial for review (and holes to our advantage). I think I stated that I absolutely believe that the actual roles are probably different, but that random 2nd communique is a balancing tool. I don't see it going away.
Basing my ideas off of that mechanic

and then doing everything we can

to validate the assumptions, is a good approach.

Heh, I don't assume that I control you, I assume that I

can

control you. I can do it overtly, or subtly. (Yes, I can be subtle too) People only get upset after they've done it and realize it.
If I can control the town, then so can our foes. The town needs strong leadership, or at the very least, assertive players. I also don't do this offhandedly. I find that I usually get a handful of complaints and that scum usually is nestled in among them. They

know

I'm town and

really

don't want me leading so strongly unless I'm taking us down a bad path. If I don't get strong pushback, well that's when I actually become concerned with the direction I'm taking. I gauge pushback as a confidence indicator for my ideas. If I see them logically being disassembled, no problem. Time to revise them. But when I see simple protests with no logic or faulty logic, it reinforces my view that I am taking the correct actions.
Now, please go back and look at the entire thing. I did not simply state one view or possibility. I looked at all of the possibilities surrounding each piece to arrive at potential actions that would help us. I then gave my suggestion for the best course for that individual piece. I then took the 3 sections and gave a combined analysis. This isn't one plan. Go look at each piece and when you do, check the validity of each part independently. I believe that by pursuing each one, we have the opportunity for either a 1 town for 1 scum trade, or we can nearly confirm a player as town.

Trust me, I'd really like to get someone confirmed town. They are more than welcome to take the helm when we do. Ok?

[Ectomancer]

EBWOP:

By arguing

against

it most likely existing, you are arguing

for

it

not

existing, or at least the probability being equal.

should be

By arguing

against

it most likely existing, you are arguing

for

it most likely

not

existing, or at least the probability being equal.

[Casey]

EBWOP:

By arguing

against

it most likely existing, you are arguing

for

it

not

existing, or at least the probability being equal.

should be

By arguing

against

it most likely existing, you are arguing

for

it most likely

not

existing, or at least the probability being equal.

That's a fallacy of black and white.

I was happy for your leadership at first, but, as I've said before, I don't approve of your current "gaming the mod" ideas. So for now, I'm out of your boat, and sticking with the simple solution, and for me, that's following the evidence and picking a Roffman lynch over a no-lynch.

I mean no offense. I'm just not following your leadership at this time. We have different beliefs, and I respect your opinions.

[Braeden]

I believe Ecto is town.

[hohum]

The deadline is the 25th currently. We could extend that out by a week by reaching a consensus of requests towards the mod. Not a bad idea because someone here is trying very hard to derail us.

I don't want to lynch anyone at this point unless we have either A: a one shot cop claim, or B: a 2nd communique claim that did not go to Roffman.
We really need to know when a potential deadline is, because within a certain of period of time of that I am going to give up on either claim appearing and consider both Roffman and Hohum to be town.

A no lynch is a horrible idea. I don't like it.

[BSG]

I oppose a Roffman lynch.
It seems very likely now that there was someone with 2 communiques. In this case, it doesn't make sense if Roffman is scum only in the case when he and Juls are scum together.
I'll get back to this later when I can describe clearly what I mean.

As for Juls, I would advice that you don't mention to who you send your first packet to in this topic. I do advice you to use your night communique to tell one player who you trust who should expect a packet. If you are the NK, we will at least know who received it when this player is town. But if you're afraid that this player might be scum, send your night action and your communique only one hour before deadline ends. Or at least as late as possible but before the deadline ends.
As for your target, I'd pick a player who I would see as neutral, but a bit to the townside. But as you don't know the effects, it's probably better if you don't take someone who looks pro-town or scummy to you, just in case the effects are against us.

[hohum]

THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SITUATIONS WHERE NO-LYNCH IS A GOOD IDEA and none of those situations apply on D1.

Big HoS

on Ectomancer, any anyone else supportive of the idea of a no-lynch.

[Ectomancer]

The deadline is the 25th currently. We could extend that out by a week by reaching a consensus of requests towards the mod. Not a bad idea because someone here is trying very hard to derail us.

I don't want to lynch anyone at this point unless we have either A: a one shot cop claim, or B: a 2nd communique claim that did not go to Roffman.
We really need to know when a potential deadline is, because within a certain of period of time of that I am going to give up on either claim appearing and consider both Roffman and Hohum to be town.

A no lynch is a horrible idea. I don't like it.

When you go back and show me where I said No Lynch you can continue griping. If you actually read what I said you will see that I am

also

asking about a dealine, because after a set period of time passes, I am going to give up on a claim appearing and consider Roffman and Hohum to be town. At that point we'll need to find another lynch. This Chicken Little outburst that the sky is going to fall is absurd. As you pointed out, to get an extension all we have to do is that. If people will get off their butts and do it without concern for someone "controlling them".

[Ectomancer]

@mod - I'd like a deadline extension please. I believe the volume of posts does not indicate a town in need of one.

[Ectomancer]

EBWOP:

By arguing

against

it most likely existing, you are arguing

for

it

not

existing, or at least the probability being equal.

should be

By arguing

against

it most likely existing, you are arguing

for

it most likely

not

existing, or at least the probability being equal.

That's a fallacy of black and white.

Uhh no. A thing can only exist or not exist. The probability is a straight line. As the probability for one goes up, the probability for the other goes down. There is no fallacy here. The only situation where one is not a greater probabilityis when they are both equal, as I stated.

Go back and look at it again. If you still don't get it, I'll try again for as long as it takes, because you are wrong there.

But, we need you with a side there Casey. Do you find it more likely that a 2nd communique ability exists in this game, more likely that one does

not

exists, or is the probability the same?

[hohum]

Point taken. I did ask you point blank at one point whether or not you supported a no-lynch and never received a satisfactory answer from you. Part of my melodrama was designed to pry that answer from you. Thanks. I'm glad we're on the same page now.

You're posting walls of text instead of answering direct questions, and you're setting a precedent that you only respond to people when being pressured to do so.

[Ectomancer]

Once again, we need someone to come forward and state they had/have a 2nd communique, dont need to reveal a thing about it except that you didn't send it to Roffman.
If someone had the 1 shop cop investigation, please claim it to give us the additional information surrounding Hohum that we need.
Should neither of these materialize, I will not support a lynch of either one of them unless future revelations concerning the events of today cause the case to be revisited. Otherwise I will consider

both

cases closed.

[hohum]

Once again, we need someone to come forward and state they had/have a 2nd communique, dont need to reveal a thing about it except that you didn't send it to Roffman.
If someone had the 1 shop cop investigation, please claim it to give us the additional information surrounding Hohum that we need.
Should neither of these materialize, I will not support a lynch of either one of them unless future revelations concerning the events of today cause the case to be revisited. Otherwise I will consider

both

cases closed.

I want you to look at the wording of this and think about it VERY carefully:

* Glork (Townsperson) is given the ability to send an extra message.

Glork had to be "given" the ability to send an extra PM. The gift had to have come from somewhere.

It may be true that we don't totally understand the mechanics of the game yet, based on the way games with special mechanics are typically run I doubt the moderator would just arbitrarily bestow such a gift on someone. It had to have come from someone with a power role.

Since there was NO night action (day start), I still believe Roffman is lying. I also believe the gift of a second communique is going to need to come from Juls.