Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

[Jahudo]

Rishi > pops > Huntress, I'd say.

I might agree with that.

Are you agreeing that pops could be more likely scummy than Huntress, or are you agreeing that imausername could find pops more scummy than Huntress? If the former, is that a change of opinion from your previous post or is your suspicion of pops about the same as your suspicion of Huntress?

[Huntress]

Hi, Moriarty!

How is being comfortable with lynching someone "tying themselves" to them? Both you and OGML brought this up, and I flatly disagree.

I'm waiting to hear more from Pops before replying to this one.

Harrumph, i don't recall any questions from huntress, but i found this. I guess she just wants me to talk about the RC tying himself thing? I've never seen something like this before. Yes it makes me nervous, and if he's scum it's a pretty good tactic because i'm at that medium level of suspicion that the tie would get me D2 lynched pretty easily based on connection. So without precedent about what to do about that sort of thing, i decided to call it out. I hope you guys realize how strange his reaction to my calling it out was, if iirc, he started talking about his strong suspicions on me that he had supposedly had for a long time (i don't remember hearing about them) and somewhat forcedly talking about how much he'd like to see me burn.

So, is RC-scum bussing scum-partner Pops, maybe to give him townie points if RC is lynched or to shift the wagon off himself, or is he pretending to bus an innocent Pops? I think the former is more likely but both are possibilities. (Yes, I know there are two other possibilities but I think they are even less likely.) The way Pops explains it here seems a bit odd but I need to do a meta on him to be sure.

Rhinox, you seem less scummy to me right now. But i can't clearly decide if i feel that way because of your massive AtE or because of actual evidence you've shown. So now i have to lynch you. Do you see how that

lurks

works?

Huh?

As for the other two players, Huntress' worse offense in my eyes is tunnelvision, and Rishi's biggest offense is likely jumping on my bandwagon with little to no independent reasons for doing so.

I haven't actually been tunnelling on you, although it may seem like that from my posts, but I've been weighing up everything that's been said and have suspicions on at least three others (Pops, Spyrex and CF Riot). Now that I've caught up again I'll be able to go back and look at my notes to see if there's enough to make a case on any of them yet.


Out of Rishi and Pops I see Pops as more probably scum at the moment.

[Rishi]

I'm not sure what Spyrex is getting at. However, I do find it interesting that he singled out three of the five people on the RC wagon, and the other two people on the wagon were the only ones who responded to that post. Not sure what to do with it, exactly. But there's got to be some kind of deflection going on there.

So, SpyreX, it feels like you are presenting a classic case of confirmation bias. You've picked out three players in the game and you think they're scum and are unwilling to entertain any other notions. You've said before that you don't think either Rhinox or RC are scum, but have never said why.

[SpyreX]

I'm not sure what Spyrex is getting at. However, I do find it interesting that he singled out three of the five people on the RC wagon, and the other two people on the wagon were the only ones who responded to that post. Not sure what to do with it, exactly. But there's got to be some kind of deflection going on there.

So, SpyreX, it feels like you are presenting a classic case of confirmation bias. You've picked out three players in the game and you think they're scum and are unwilling to entertain any other notions. You've said before that you don't think either Rhinox or RC are scum, but have never said why.

Yes, its because you're on the wagon and nothing to do with problems I've mentioned about all of you earlier. Alas, busted.

I love this confirmation bias issue - I get it a lot. But, lets look at it. There are 12 people in this game. 2 are being wagoned that I dont agree with (I'll get to that later), 3 I've made clear my issues and 1 other is me who is awesome. So, that is 50% of the game explicitly mentioned my feelings on. Now, considering MME didn't "play the game" and his replacement ALSO isn't "playing the game" he can easily be removed. So, that leaves us with: Bio, Username, CFR, OGML. Now, I may not have mentioned them, but can you guess the vibe I get from them at this point?

But, you do raise a valid question: Why, exactly, is it that I think RC and Rhinox are town (albeit definitely not A++ PRO TOWN) and you three are scummy?

At heart, it comes down to this: They have SAID something this game. You three, ultimately, have not. This isn't an issue of lurking either, its a bit more insidious which I will get to in a minute.

So, for all this business RC and Rhinox have been getting, what purpose would it serve them as scum?

RC has been running around saying the sky is falling for a while now - he hasn't (aside from self-preservation (which is a BAD thing)) been trying to take a leadership role and he most definitely hasn't done a good job blending in. However, he HAS had a stance that has been made abundantly clear - and, considering some other items in this day has made it nigh impossible to make it to lylo without outside confirmation: not really a good scum maneuver.

Rhinox, on the other hand, started out fairly normal and nondescript and, as far as I can tell, imploded under the tiniest bit of pressure. Again, his "WIFOM" business really doesn't bother me because no matter where the wine IS, I dont see a scum benefit for it.

So, no, I'm still not seeing EITHER of them as scum at this point. However, considering we have a deadline AND the chances of the lynch moving away are minimal, this is mostly an exercise in getting my opinion out there.

Now, as for you three:

Rishi

Weighing in at a whopping 9 posts this game, Rishi, really, hasn't said that much.. but this one does stand out STILL:

What I don't get is that, why is this all that you're discussing? And not only that, for the most part, you're discussing whether or not we should be discussing the SK and devoting a lot of space to it. Yes, I realize that a lot of people are asking you questions about it, but your answer to all the questions is pretty much the same. You are the one who is choosing to answer in a long-winded and repetitive manner. I can't believe that you can't take a step back and see how unhelpful all of this is.

Others have given good reasons for what you're doing. I particularly like Bio's 182.

Vote: RedCoyote

What bothers me, every time I read this, is that there's no "fire" or real fist-pounding belief in this at all. Does Rishi say he is scum? No... just that the SK discussion is unhelpful. Does Rishi give his reasons for the wagon? No...just that he agrees with Bio.

Yet, he's been suspicious of RC all along? Really, there was a few questions, but I'm having a hard time seeing that suspicion throughout.

Huntress

Now, this one, well. I've talked about the whole no-voting business before but there are two other things I'd like to bring to light:

Maybe I just have a narrow view right now, but all i'm getting out of our back and forth is you saying, "its stupid to assume there isn't an sk", followed by me saying "thats not what I'm assuming, but how does assuming there is one help us?", followed by you responding with "its stupid to assume there isn't an sk."

I think that's a fair summary.

Vote: RedCoyote

This is when her vote joined the wagon. Again, I read it and read it, but I'm not seeing how this = RC is scum.

And, in the latest post:

I haven't actually been tunnelling on you, although it may seem like that from my posts, but I've been weighing up everything that's been said and have suspicions on at least three others (Pops, Spyrex and CF Riot). Now that I've caught up again I'll be able to go back and look at my notes to see if there's enough to make a case on any of them yet.

Out of Rishi and Pops I see Pops as more probably scum at the moment.

I haven't seen anything, not ONE THING, in any of this posts even predending to show reasons why CFR or I are scummy.

In addition, any reference to pops being scum from huntress comes with the conditional pops AND RC are scum and RC is distancing from pops.

Why does this bother me? Well, when RC is lynched and comes up town...well, guess that means pops is all good, rite?

And... of course,

Pops

Ultimately, every single damn one of you that are voting RC because you say he is "unhelpful" versus "actually scum" drive me nuts because no matter how I weigh the actions of the two in the realm of unhelpful pops keeps comin up spades. 51 posts and I'd go ahead and say 50% of that is "fluff" (remember that thing he was so up in arms about).

His jump from Rhinox to RC was based heavily on a meta-tell. In rereading, I could see SOME credence for the Rhinox vote but the jump... no.

Every ounce of me screams "scum" at Pops this game. Every bit.

Unapologetically unhelpful (see the you aint got nothin on me coppa defense) + hiding in plain sight + bandwagon voting = delicious scum cookie.

Come take a bite.

[Vi]

Vote Count:

(unchanged)

RedCoyote (L-2) ~ Huntress, bionicchop2, popsofctown, Rishi, iamausername

Rhinox (L-3) ~ Jahudo, RedCoyote, OhGodMyLife, CF Riot
popsofctown (L-6) ~ SpyreX
OhGodMyLife (L-6) ~ Rhinox

Minimum (L-7)

Not Voting:

Moriarty147
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Huntress - 0 | iamausername - 0 - PROD1 2 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 2 | Moriarty147 - 0 | OhGodMyLife - 1 - PROD1 9 | popsofctown - 0 | RedCoyote - 0 | Rhinox - 1 | Rishi - 0 | SpyreX - 0 PROD1 1[/size]

Second Deadline Review: Wednesday, Feb 18 2009
Current Deadline: Sunday, Feb 22 2009

[Jahudo]

So, that leaves us with: Bio, Username, CFR, OGML.

I feel ignored

Weighing in at a whopping 9 posts this game, Rishi, really, hasn't said that much.

Agreed, but at the same time this is a long-winded game and I can see how someone could spend more time reading and catching up than posting.

You are the one who is choosing to answer in a long-winded and repetitive manner.

I can't believe that you can't take a step back and see how unhelpful all of this is.

The bolded selection makes it sound like he wants to believe that RC can see how he erred and correct himself. This feels like he might be willing to reconsider RC or to some extent he trusts that RC is misguided town because he is trying to make RC acknowledge how he looks bad.

As for trying to bandwagon, RC, I had been attacking him since my first substantive post.

@Rishi: How legitimate was that attack for the case? The post in question dealt with RC posts in the first 3 pages and you said this of the early suspicions:

Mole hills. To some degree, on the first three pages. There was some long posts on non-issues (and I don't have time to look back right now to give you specifics, but I can do this later if you want). Less so now.

So was your own suspicion back then a mole hill?

In addition, any reference to pops being scum from huntress comes with the conditional pops AND RC are scum and RC is distancing from pops.

Has she leaned that way in any other post besides post 301?

[RedCoyote]

So, is RC-scum bussing scum-partner Pops, maybe to give him townie points if RC is lynched or to shift the wagon off himself, or is he pretending to bus an innocent Pops? I think the former is more likely but both are possibilities. (Yes, I know there are two other possibilities but I think they are even less likely.) The way Pops explains it here seems a bit odd but I need to do a meta on him to be sure.

Am I also tying myself to Rhinox by calling him scum? Am I also tying myself to bionic/Spy by calling them both town?

---

Again, [Rhinox's] "WIFOM" business really doesn't bother me because no matter where the wine IS, I dont see a scum benefit for it.

If I am lynched, what will happen to Rhinox when I flip town?

Frankly I'm more partial to OGML's original idea that Rhinox was attempting to lead a wagon indirectly. On the one hand, saying that I am innocent and the wrong lynch, but on the other throwing every damaging accusation he could at me (e.g. stating the obvious, aiding mafia through SK-talk, not answering his questions, being overly defensive, partnering up to pops, etc). Of course, where I differ with OGML is his further prediction that we are two separate scum parties.

---

The bolded selection makes it sound like he wants to believe that RC can see how he erred and correct himself. This feels like he might be willing to reconsider RC or to some extent he trusts that RC is misguided town because he is trying to make RC acknowledge how he looks bad.

Do you feel this way as well, Jahudo? Obviously not in regards to your vote, but moreso to your suspicions of me in general?

I'm not going to recant anything I've said mostly because I think I provoked the necessary responses out of any discussions I've had, whether Rishi (or anyone) acknowledges that or not. My scumhunting is completely detached from any theories I may or may not have about any roles in this game.

[Moriarty147]

I'm still not quite done reasoning through all the 12 pages, but with the deadline approaching and the new input from SpyreX, I have more pressing issues to take care of. First off:

Rhinox

What bothers me about Rhinox is the fact that he exploded under pressure when he was voted to L-3...hardly any threat for an impending lynch. On one hand, it doesn't make sense for a townie to suddenly explode under such little pressure, so quickly. On the other hand, it doesn't make much sense for a mafian to start making blatant AtE when he could merely attempt to somehow change his opinion and blend in better. As a result I'm highly inclined to consider the AtE as a null tell. So, the other portions of his case:

- There appears to be a lot of misquoting and misattribution to the discussion around early day 1 and the SK. Rhinox kept raising a valid point to RedCoyote: namely, how does considering the existence of an SK, over the existence of a general "scum" composed of all mafia factions, an SK, etc, alter day 1 for the better? The main links between mafia wouldn't be highly evident on day 1 (and would require an already flipped scum or a successful cop investigation to work off of, anyway), so there's actually quite little to differentiate between an SK's posts on day 1 and a mafian's.

- However, on the other hand, what bothers me is Rhinox's appeals to WIFOM. CF Riot showed a couple good ones in his case on him, and I'm not sure what he's trying to get at.

- This is interesting. I'm not entirely sure what to make of it. It is actually rather strange that a lot of the Rhinox wagon moved to the RC wagon, and most of the people staying off it stayed off it.

Overall, I'm not sure what to make of Rhinox atm. The evidence against him can be either used to help a case for him being either scum or town, and overall I personally think he's town.

RedCoyote

RedCoyote seems to be very virulently arguing that you

must

consider the setup in your day 1 play, and on a couple of occasions suggests that playing the setup is beneficial for town - which it's not. Such play leads to town grasping at straws and getting directed by the people who know the most about the setup, namely the scum. However, what does he actually have against him?

I don't like it when people get pessimistic.

To me, townies should always have some sort of zeal, some sort of indignation in their hearts when they are being voted or fear they are going to be lynched.

I thought I'd bring this up, as you consider it a personal scumtell and your most major point against Rhinox, when I consider it rather useless. Why wouldn't a scum get equally indignated when they are voted? To me pessimism is more of a towntell than a scumtell: why would a scum give up instead of fighting until the end? This makes no sense at all.

- A couple other things disturb me in your big case against Rhinox in post 221, where you make your case against him. For instance, it was you who revisited the SK discussion, even after it was almost about to be abandoned. Also, I'm not seeing his buddying up to bionicchop either, which I would like to see more evidence towards.

- Overall, I'm conflicted against him. While he does seem to be pressing his case with extreme zeal, which might indicate a towntell, it equally well could be scum backed into a corner. He definetly pinged my scum-dar, and I would probably be voting him were it not for pops.

Bionicchop

- Starts off the day with SK discussion that seemed extremely strange. Later explains it away with the claims that it would both enable him to read Rhinox better, and cause discussion beyond its original purpose, which it did.
- In post 83, claims that the early day 1 discussion was not about "nothing", when it actually was mostly irrelevant: a good chunk of it was simply about playstyle.
- In general, appears to be acting Pro-Town, with very little objectionable content.

Now, as for the real problem people. SpyreX did a very good job doing RC wagon analysis, as well as forming cases on Rishi and Huntress. The Rishi wagon jump is probably the most distressing, as it feels more opportunistic than something than he actually believes in. That being said,

pops

RC is saying that we should assume the worst until better is proven. Ok, sure. The way he discusses it though is not as curt it should be though, which gives me a slight scum vibe.

This makes no sense. So, you have no problem with what he is saying, but then claim that the way it is worded gives you a slight scum vibe. Explains it away later as:

The first bold is me saying he didn't answer his questions as curtly as he could. It's suspicious, especially in terms of his meta.

This is fairly suspicious, so not only is it not anything to be suspicious about to begin with, but it's purely a meta tell? Hmm. Interesting.

- Votes for Rhinox largely based on buddying to RedCoyote and Rhinox's AtE.
- Then a lot more useless fluff posts before:

Rishi: Is my case against Rhinox valid enough for a vote? Is Korts' and iamusername and rest of crapwagon's arguments valid enough for a vote on me?

There were 3 people on your wagon at that time, why mention 2 of them and not SpyreX? That's vaguely strange. Also that line reads to me as if you are trying to artifically inflate the size of your wagon.
- Later quotes a game where he evidences his meta scumtell against RC. Still not believing it.
- Still more fluff, then his wagon jump here, curiously around the time when Rhinox's wagon started dissolving. His reasoning is complete crap, why did RC need "more" pressure anyway?
- Still doesn't provide any reasoning as to why RC is scummy
- Then he claims here that RC was trying to tie himself to him, yet, pops, wasn't this one of your reasons as to why

Rhinox

was scum, earlier, when you voted him?
- So far it appears that

all

of his scumtells are based off of meta. While in a game such as this, scum would probably be good enough to try to avoid making any overt scumtells, an overreliance on meta tells is disturbing, as it allows scum to hide behind votes for town without actually forming any hard evidence against them, therefore allowing them to lynch town easier. In other words, this is certainly not helping my opinion of him right now.

At the moment, I highly think that pops is scum,

Vote: pops

. However, I am fairly distressed with SpyreX's attempt to derail the wagons on Rhinox and RC this late in the date. Equally well he could have made that post at the beginning of day 2. Of course, this winds up being a WIFOM, though if one of the Rhinox or RC wagons go through today (especially the latter), and it flips as scum, then SpyreX is definetly worth another read.

In any order, expect another post from me about the other players later today.

[Moriarty147]

Oh, some minor things I'd also like to address: I find OGML's scumspiracy slightly out-of-place on day 1. It seems a bit odd, and using past games as "evidence" for such a conspiracy is weird. I'd honestly wait for some flips before suggesting such an idea, especially when it's looking that the day 1 lynch currently is either RC or Rhinox. As for Huntress's claim about RC bussing pops, I wonder if equally well she thinks that pops is bussing RC at the same time?

[popsofctown]

Rhinox, you seem less scummy to me right now. But i can't clearly decide if i feel that way because of your massive AtE or because of actual evidence you've shown. So now i have to lynch you. Do you see how that

lurks

works?

Huh?

In the past few pages, i've been getting less gut feeling about Rhinox being scum. Is it because she's actually town, or because she appeals to emotion every other post? I can't say which. So i would think i need to err on the side of uncharitable judgments, since he's the one who's using appeal-to-emotion for his defense.

I would definitely suggest you read my games Huntress, because your read on me right now is wrong.

Unapologetically unhelpful (see the you aint got nothin on me coppa defense) + hiding in plain sight + bandwagon voting = delicious scum cookie.

Come take a bite.

You ain't got nothin' on me coppaaaaa.
For serious though, i'm not scum here. I'm not hiding in plain sight, no one's addressed game-related content to me and then i've avoided it. There's a question, one question in this sea of walls, that you supposedly asked but i never answered.
Bandwagon voting? I really think RC is scum. This looks like RC scum. I don't know how i can explain this better. He loves to hide behind aspects of the game that don't bear on his alignment when he's scum. That's one of the only tells i can recognize off him.

So far it appears that

all

of his scumtells are based off of meta. While in a game such as this, scum would probably be good enough to try to avoid making any overt scumtells, an overreliance on meta tells is disturbing, as it allows scum to hide behind votes for town without actually forming any hard evidence against them, therefore allowing them to lynch town easier. In other words, this is certainly not helping my opinion of him right now.

nunununununununoooo. You guys don't understand. If i don't read RC based on some kind of meta, i won't be able to read him at all. The last game i played with him was very very long, and he posted very very lot, and i 99% thought he was town and he was scum. So it would logically follow that my ability to read RC as a normal player is about zero. If i were to use no meta, i would get a false negative on RC no matter what. Meta is my only hope of reading RC in any sort of capacity at all. If you guys don't understand or agree with my meta-based reasons for voting him, don't vote with me. But that's the way it's going to have to be.

@whoever suggested RC has posted too much content to be scum: noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. RC posts LOTS OF CONTENT when he's scum. Lots of content. This is a craptell.

[bionicchop2]

Feeling much better today. A few quick comments to CF Riot:

Post 269:

1. You said the your notes were in player by player order. Why did you group players together to post about them?

2. You exclude any thoughts on IAU. An odd exclusion, especially paired with #3

3. Your group of 'lurkers' doesn't seem well thought out. Here are the post counts for the 6 players with the least number of posts prior to your post on Feb 12 (including confirmation). 6 included to show the 3 you called out.

IAU - 5
MME - 6
Rishi - 7
Spyrex - 9
Huntress - 12
Jahudo - 12

Now I know posts with content count more than posts without content. The complete exclusion of IAU as an offender here (if you are going to puppet the salt stories of Spyrex) is wrong. Then Spyrex gets group into your 'town' group for making 2 more posts than Rishi and 3 less than Huntress (this is not a scum accusation of Spyrex).

=============

So, for all this business RC and Rhinox have been getting, what purpose would it serve them as scum?

I want to address my overall feeling on the existing wagons and this quote is a good starting point for me.

I understand your point here Spyrex, but ask yourself the same question about Pops. Once I got a feel of how Pops was playing this game, I figured it was best for me to at least skim one of his other games. The playstyle in this game and his first game on this site (as town) are near identical. This does not definitively make him town for me, but it is the reason I am not sold on your case. At last count, he had 47 posts (this was before the weekend) and I think I was the only player with more posts. Now, even if you cut out 66% of them and call them fluff, he would still have 15 content posts which is more than half the players in the game have posted total.

Now, I currently don't have Rhinox in the top of my suspects, so I will address his wagon. Almost every case on him has AtE and WIFOM as the major component. OK. For me, I try not to count scummy actions multiple times (if something is done 6 times vs. 3 times, it is not scummier). If somebody posts enough times and AtE/WIFOM are part of their nature, they are going to have multiple offenses. I have many of the same 'tells' listed for Rhinox as others have expressed, but they are not conclusive enough for me. Part of my problem is that I have busted scum before for using appeals to emotion. Felt great. I then played the person again and lynched her again for similar reasons (Crywolf FYI). She was town that time. Turns out she just uses AtE excessively regardless of alignment. This has knocked it down a notch on my scum-tell list

For RC, I see a diverse number of scummy actions. To address the "what purpose would his play serve as scum", you have to look at the progression of his posts. A large portion of his posts were made in defense of his initial actions. Once called out that his posting was scummy, scum really would be forced to either commit to it 100% or backtrack out of it. Spyrex accuses Pops of 'hiding in plain sight'. Is the same not possible for RC? I admit the biggest doubt in my mind is why RC would play as he started after I was accused of being scum for discussing SK.

[Rhinox]

If I am lynched, what will happen to Rhinox when I flip town?

Why should your allignment determine my fate? Also, isn't this the same type of comment that I got chewed up for earlier?

Frankly I'm more partial to OGML's original idea that Rhinox was attempting to lead a wagon indirectly. On the one hand, saying that I am innocent and the wrong lynch, but on the other

throwing every damaging accusation he could at me

(e.g. stating the obvious, aiding mafia through SK-talk, not answering his questions, being overly defensive, partnering up to pops, etc). Of course, where I differ with OGML is his further prediction that we are two separate scum parties.

They're only damaging if they're true. Since those are pretty much the reasons you are being wagoned, that means that either there is good merit in those accusations, or scum are taking those accusations and running with them just to get you lynched. I haven't voted for you, and I don't think you're scum, because I find it impossible to be objective when I'm involved in a 1 vs 1 argument. I don't believe that I have been pushing your wagon from the sideline - and I'm pretty sure that I expressed my concerns about your wagon before anybody even brought up that accusation.

Even if you think I'm scum pushing your wagon from the sideline (which is nothing more than a guess based on nothing really, to rationalize how I could be scum), that would still mean there would have to be scum on your wagon if you end up being lynched - unless you think I'm so skilled that I can appear to be really scummy, all while getting every town player to vote you so every scum can not be on your wagon. Assuming 4 scum in the game (which I always do in a mini, FYI) if you are town and lynched, unless every other town player was mislynching you, there would have to be scum on your wagon. Since I know I'm town, and I'm not voting for you, that would pretty much prove to me that at least 1 scum would have to be on your wagon to get you lynched today if you're town.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Spy: what assumptions did you make to come up with the conclusion that at least 1 of Rishi, pops, and huntress have to be scum? I'm not saying I disagree with your method - I use similar process of elimination methods to focus my scum hunting later in the game when more information is available to the town - however even after explaining why you don't think me or RC is scum, I still can't get to being 100% sure that at least 1 of the 3 has to be scum.

In order to come to that conclusion, you would have to be 100% sure that at least 4 of Bio, Username, CFR, OGML, jahudo and moriarty are town, as well as assuming you are town yourself, and assuming 4 scum in the game. I find it suspicious that you are able to confirm 4 town players on D1, and use that information to say that the probability is 100% that at least 1 of Rishi, pops, and huntress are scum. I do agree with the points you've brought up against the three players, but I feel like its manipulative for you to say that you're 100% sure that at least 1 of them is scum.

[Jahudo]

Do you feel this way as well, Jahudo? Obviously not in regards to your vote, but moreso to your suspicions of me in general?

I don't mind long-winded posts in this game and I actually expected them when I signed up. I feel that some of the repetitive arguments over role speculation was unnecessary because ultimately one's opinion is a null to very minor tell and you shouldn't feel the need to have the last word in.

At the moment, I highly think that pops is scum, Vote: pops. However, I am fairly distressed with SpyreX's attempt to derail the wagons on Rhinox and RC this late in the date.

How is your vote not aiding in the derailment of the wagons on Rhinox and/or RC this late in the day?

For RC, I see a diverse number of scummy actions. To address the "what purpose would his play serve as scum", you have to look at the progression of his posts. A large portion of his posts were made in defense of his initial actions.

If you think his continued and repetitive defense of his initial actions is scummy, how is that different from a scummy action committed multiple times?

[OhGodMyLife]

I try not to count scummy actions multiple times (if something is done 6 times vs. 3 times, it is not scummier)

Thats silly.

If scumRhinox gets backed into a corner over his use of AtE, his best course of action is to continue using AtE while shouting SCUM WOULD BE TOO CALCULATING TO USE ATE. If he continues getting attacked, he continues doing it, because he is now committed to this strategy. And it is nothing like your example with crywolf - AtE is

not

part of Rhinox's meta.

Spy/Moriarty - If Rhinox is scum, how does this change your opinion of pops? And the same question, only with RC as scum.

[Rishi]

and assuming 4 scum in the game.

Will respond to other points later, but did I miss something? Why are we assuming four scum in the game? In a setup like this, three is normal. We get four scum if there's three scum plus a serial killer or two scumgroups of two. But how can someone know that if not a member of one of the groups?

Will wait for an explanation before switching my vote, but this looks like a genuine slip to me.

[bionicchop2]

For RC, I see a diverse number of scummy actions. To address the "what purpose would his play serve as scum", you have to look at the progression of his posts. A large portion of his posts were made in defense of his initial actions.

If you think his continued and repetitive defense of his initial actions is scummy, how is that different from a scummy action committed multiple times?

Those are 2 different concepts you are lumping together. The first sentence is why I see him as scummier and the scummy actions I have previously outlined in detail - was not trying to repeat them here. The 2nd is a response to a statement. You don't know how I have organized my rankings of scum, but I will tell you that I only counted RC's repetition of the SK talk as one offense.

I try not to count scummy actions multiple times (if something is done 6 times vs. 3 times, it is not scummier)

Thats silly.

In my experience, 5 occurrences of 1 scummy action by a player < 1 occurrence each of 5 different scummy actions.

And it is nothing like your example with crywolf - AtE is

not

part of Rhinox's meta.

Rhinox has never been lynched in a game nor been under significant pressure, therefore he does not have ANY meta on how he responds to pressure. AtE is one of those things I have trouble with. It always feels scummy, but I think it is less often telling of a persons alignment than it is just a reflection of the person.

[bionicchop2]

and assuming 4 scum in the game.

Will respond to other points later, but did I miss something? Why are we assuming four scum in the game? In a setup like this, three is normal. We get four scum if there's three scum plus a serial killer or two scumgroups of two. But how can someone know that if not a member of one of the groups?

Will wait for an explanation before switching my vote, but this looks like a genuine slip to me.

I guess you haven't been reading too closely then. There have been multiple discussions about assuming the worst case scenario for games. In this case, the range of scum is 2-4. Mafia role PMs are written for 2-3 mafia and there is a possibility of 1 SK.

How would this be a scum slip? How would a person in either group be able to determine there are 4 scum? A sk, could only guess if there are 2-3 mafia and mafia could only guess if there was a SK. Neither group has any way of determining the possibility and more than a town player would.

[Rhinox]

AtE is not part of Rhinox's meta.

Well OGML, conspiracy and confirmation bias is not part of your meta as town, and yet shows up here in your insistance that both RC and I are scum.

Spy/Moriarty - If Rhinox is scum, how does this change your opinion of pops? And the same question, only with RC as scum.

OGML, I asked a similar question to you earlier that you never answered, and I got chastised for even asking it. When I show up as town after being lynched, how will that change your opinion of RC and the rest of the players in the game.

Will respond to other points later, but did I miss something? Why are we assuming four scum in the game? In a setup like this, three is normal. We get four scum if there's three scum plus a serial killer or two scumgroups of two. But how can someone know that if not a member of one of the groups?

Assuming 4 scum in the game (which I always do in a mini, FYI)

I always assume 4 scum in a mini, until proven otherwise. I don't assume anything about factions.

and for the record, here's the full context where you took that quote from:

In order to come to that conclusion, you would have to be 100% sure that at least

4

3 of Bio, Username, CFR, OGML, jahudo and moriarty are town, as well as assuming you are town yourself, and assuming 4 scum in the game. I find it suspicious that you are able to confirm

4

3 town players on D1, and use that information to say that the probability is 100% that at least 1 of Rishi, pops, and huntress are scum. I do agree with the points you've brought up against the three players, but I feel like its manipulative for you to say that you're 100% sure that at least 1 of them is scum.

I changed the 4's to 3's above because I realized my numbers were off. Changing the assumption from 4 scum to 3 scum only makes Spy's claim worse, because he has to be able to confirm 1 more townie, for a total of now 4 instead of 3. In other words, I was just expressing a best case scenario for Spy's claim that at least 1 of Rishi, Pops, or huntress has to scum, by showing that he would have to be 100% confident of at least 3 players being town if there are the maximum 4 scum in the game. If there are only 3 scum, then he would have to be 100% confident on 4 players being town, making his accusation even harder to believe.

[SpyreX]

I feel ignored Sad

See, this is how you blend. I keep forgetting you are even IN THIS GAME.

(I kid, but yea - you are absolutely blending this game for me. I'm going to have to figure out what that means in the long term).

If I am lynched, what will happen to Rhinox when I flip town?

Frankly I'm more partial to OGML's original idea that Rhinox was attempting to lead a wagon indirectly. On the one hand, saying that I am innocent and the wrong lynch, but on the other throwing every damaging accusation he could at me (e.g. stating the obvious, aiding mafia through SK-talk, not answering his questions, being overly defensive, partnering up to pops, etc). Of course, where I differ with OGML is his further prediction that we are two separate scum parties.

What happens to Rhinox when you flip town? Well, probably the same business that we have today. Half the town instant pushes and someone else becomes a competing wagon, etc, etc.

Ultimately, both of you have claimed the spotlight and we all know that that doesn't go away. Ever.

So, you flipping town means exactly two things: you were town, and you were hung. Those aren't good things, which leads me to:

At the moment, I highly think that pops is scum, Vote: pops. However, I am fairly distressed with SpyreX's attempt to derail the wagons on Rhinox and RC this late in the date. Equally well he could have made that post at the beginning of day 2. Of course, this winds up being a WIFOM, though if one of the Rhinox or RC wagons go through today (especially the latter), and it flips as scum, then SpyreX is definetly worth another read.

If this was deadline day, sure. However, I've been very clear about my feelings about these two for..ohh, lets say forever. So, yes, I'm making my stance clear because I'd much rather see pops lynched than either of them.

As for if I'm wrong and one of those two ARE scum. Yea, thats going to put a whole mess of suspicion on me. Of course, I don't think I'm wrong so that is a bridge I'll come to when and if it happens.

You ain't got nothin' on me coppaaaaa.
For serious though, i'm not scum here. I'm not hiding in plain sight, no one's addressed game-related content to me and then i've avoided it. There's a question, one question in this sea of walls, that you supposedly asked but i never answered.
Bandwagon voting? I really think RC is scum. This looks like RC scum. I don't know how i can explain this better. He loves to hide behind aspects of the game that don't bear on his alignment when he's scum. That's one of the only tells i can recognize off him.

nunununununununoooo. You guys don't understand. If i don't read RC based on some kind of meta, i won't be able to read him at all. The last game i played with him was very very long, and he posted very very lot, and i 99% thought he was town and he was scum. So it would logically follow that my ability to read RC as a normal player is about zero. If i were to use no meta, i would get a false negative on RC no matter what. Meta is my only hope of reading RC in any sort of capacity at all. If you guys don't understand or agree with my meta-based reasons for voting him, don't vote with me. But that's the way it's going to have to be.

@whoever suggested RC has posted too much content to be scum: noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. RC posts LOTS OF CONTENT when he's scum. Lots of content. This is a craptell.

Ok, this is a pristine example of why I hate meta so much.

What is the sample size you are using for RC's play?
What are the key differences in RC's play as scum and as town?
What makes you so positive that RC wouldn't alter his play between games as scum?

See, you are using meta as a spear (not a shield for once) to poke at a case and every time you mention it meta is brought up. This, of course, provides a "reason" that can't be properly examined within the confines of

this game

.

Keep in mind, you also just said RC posting content = scumtell. I want that out there nice and clear.

BUT, more awesome meta (and this is an example of why it is retarded, please keep in mind).

Lets look at my games:

1.) When I'm town, most of the time Day 1 I pick out a few targets for scummy behavior and DO get them lynched. A decent amount of the time there are scum there.

2.) The game I have played as scum, I bussed the hell out of my partner day one.

So, based on my meta, the answer is clear: lynch pops. I mean, if I'm scum my meta suggests that I'd be bussing, right? And, if I'm town, you know the wagon is not scum-motivated and thusly there is some merit in what I'm saying.. right?

I understand your point here Spyrex, but ask yourself the same question about Pops. Once I got a feel of how Pops was playing this game, I figured it was best for me to at least skim one of his other games. The playstyle in this game and his first game on this site (as town) are near identical. This does not definitively make him town for me, but it is the reason I am not sold on your case. At last count, he had 47 posts (this was before the weekend) and I think I was the only player with more posts. Now, even if you cut out 66% of them and call them fluff, he would still have 15 content posts which is more than half the players in the game have posted total.

The thing that gets me about pops, and the content / fluff ratio is that, really, even the "content" isn't truly that. Aside from Rhinox and RC and the bouncing between... I got nothin.

For RC, I see a diverse number of scummy actions. To address the "what purpose would his play serve as scum", you have to look at the progression of his posts. A large portion of his posts were made in defense of his initial actions. Once called out that his posting was scummy, scum really would be forced to either commit to it 100% or backtrack out of it. Spyrex accuses Pops of 'hiding in plain sight'. Is the same not possible for RC? I admit the biggest doubt in my mind is why RC would play as he started after I was accused of being scum for discussing SK.

Now, yes, RC could be trying to hide in plain sight as well - however, I'm not "feelin" it the same way I am with pops. The SK conversations did serve as a method to be active without being proactive, however that changed the minute suspicion was being placed hard and fast. I, still, can't see a scum committing that hard to it that early.

Spy: what assumptions did you make to come up with the conclusion that at least 1 of Rishi, pops, and huntress have to be scum? I'm not saying I disagree with your method - I use similar process of elimination methods to focus my scum hunting later in the game when more information is available to the town - however even after explaining why you don't think me or RC is scum, I still can't get to being 100% sure that at least 1 of the 3 has to be scum.

In order to come to that conclusion, you would have to be 100% sure that at least 4 of Bio, Username, CFR, OGML, jahudo and moriarty are town, as well as assuming you are town yourself, and assuming 4 scum in the game. I find it suspicious that you are able to confirm 4 town players on D1, and use that information to say that the probability is 100% that at least 1 of Rishi, pops, and huntress are scum. I do agree with the points you've brought up against the three players, but I feel like its manipulative for you to say that you're 100% sure that at least 1 of them is scum.

Ok, lets break this down since there's a few things that need to be clarified here.

1.) Based on the play day 1, I would be flabbergasted if all three of the above are town. Hence, I'm positive that

at least one

of the aforementioned players is scum.
2.) Considering their play and the personal red flags it has raised, I have a higher-than-average belief that two of them are scum.
3.) As, although I am awesome, I have been led astray in the past, I doubt I nailed 3/3 thus, chances are, one is probably a false positive.
4.) Regardless of my alignment, of COURSE I am going to 100% A+ say I am town in my conjecture. This is a given.
5.) The game is a living creature. Opinions change based on new material. That is the nature of the beast. I have not "confirmed" anyone but myself - the difference is that the rest of the players have not raised flags. If, for example, someone tried to wagon Bio right now it would be an uphill struggle because I haven't seen anything scummy in his play. Now, could that change tomorrow? Of course. Don't paint my theories as "definitive".
6.) What, really, is the difference that I said versus someone being adamant about a player or two players? What, exactly, is manipulative in this?

Spy/Moriarty - If Rhinox is scum, how does this change your opinion of pops? And the same question, only with RC as scum.

Well, if Rhinox or RC IS scum, that is in essence me wiping my slate clean and rereading the entire damn game because that means I'm way off in my reads. Pops, still, has been independently scummy and would still be on the radar but I probably would have a bit lower suspicion because I'm not buying a bus right out the window in this mess.

I changed the 4's to 3's above because I realized my numbers were off. Changing the assumption from 4 scum to 3 scum only makes Spy's claim worse, because he has to be able to confirm 1 more townie, for a total of now 4 instead of 3. In other words, I was just expressing a best case scenario for Spy's claim that at least 1 of Rishi, Pops, or huntress has to scum, by showing that he would have to be 100% confident of at least 3 players being town if there are the maximum 4 scum in the game. If there are only 3 scum, then he would have to be 100% confident on 4 players being town, making his accusation even harder to believe.

Again, see above. Apples aren't B2 Bombers. My suspicion on them does not inherently mean I have confirmed the rest of the game to be town. Painting it as such is irritating.

I think I've said this before. Its like you want me to lynch you.

[bionicchop2]

Let's delve further into the mind of Spyrex. I think it can be productive. Comments and questions in whatever order they pop into my head:

1. I won't completely dismiss the idea of Pops-scum since I do feel you are a solid scum hunter and I currently feel you are town. I feel it may be driven by his play style. The tough part is that he has a play style that would be very easy for him to carry into games when he is scum, especially if people accept it as his norm.

2. Since you have put a 33% chance on your 3 top suspects all being scum, I would be curious to know your 4th suspect if you have a clear one.

3. I need to update my Rishi notes now that he has posted a little more, but he is neck to neck with RC in my mind. Having fewer posts leaves me with less identifiable reasoning behind my suspicions of him though. Maybe this is an avenue worth pursuing.

4. I see I am not the only one who notices Jahudo floating around. Asking nice little questions, but not expressing any strong opinions. I can't find many things 'scummy' per se, but worth noting.

[bionicchop2]

Rishi > pops > Huntress, I'd say.

I might agree with that.

Are you agreeing that pops could be more likely scummy than Huntress, or are you agreeing that imausername could find pops more scummy than Huntress? If the former, is that a change of opinion from your previous post or is your suspicion of pops about the same as your suspicion of Huntress?

1. This part just seems silly.

or are you agreeing that imausername could find pops more scummy than Huntress?

Would I really post to say, "Yes I think you might think that way"?

2. Both Huntress and Pops are muddled in the majority of semi-suspect people. Earlier in games, I tend to lean towards players who post less as more likely to be scum if two players are close in scumminess. My initial post probably should have been clearer in the seperation. Rishi>>>>>>>>Huntress>Pops.

[bionicchop2]

I wasn't sure if I should go this far, since I am entering into 'defending the actions of another' territory. Always a slippery slope. Anyway, I think this should be on the table since the biggest knock on Pops is his joking and fluff. I originally had Pops high on my rankings for the same reason, which pushed me into my next level of investigating.

Link to Pops-scum

Link to Pops-town

Can he change? Yes, sure. From what I saw though, it looked like Pops-scum knew his normal playing is going to draw too much attention. He took a very straight forward approach to the game. Since the game ended with him winning for his team, I don't see much incentive for him to change course and try the riskier approach of joking/fluff pops-scum

[Rhinox]

@ Spy: I get what your saying... basically, the 100% chance you said, is based on your own read of the game. But when I see someone quote a % chance, I automatically think that is a set statistical probability that is independant of anyone's read. For example, in a 3 scum game, the true statistical probability of 1 of Rishi, Pops, or Huntress being scum is ~62%. In a 4 scum game, the probability rises to ~75%. (both numbers assuming you're calling yourself 100% confirmed town). So thats why I feel your 100% is misleading - there is a big difference between saying you strongly believe 1 of those 3 to be scum, and saying there is a 100% chance one of them is scum, IMO.

[Jahudo]

Would I really post to say, "Yes I think you might think that way"?

I just wanted clarification and why you would interchange pops and Huntress in level of suspicions. I don't have a problem with you doing so but I don't know why you would bother to agree with username's list if you didn't make a reason for interchanging your top suspicions placements.

[CF Riot]

Response to Rhinox's last attempt at a defense. Won't touch on what was aimed at RC, but for my half here's the rebuttal.

So, you insult everyone by thinking that any town power roles would be too stupid to take into consideration any possible roles when making their night choices? Thats what all this has been about? So you can state the obvious, in an attempt to look like a perfect little highly informative townie?

This is a huge stretch, and AtE which Rhinox is guilty of throughout the day.

That was not a stretch at all.

I very strongly disagree.

A player is role A. That player can either assume there is an sk, or assume nothing about scum factions. Will that player's actions change at all as a result of either assumption? I believe the answer is no, and I believe RC has not effectively answered that question, despite his insistance to the contrary.

And while I agree with you on that, I think you asking RC what "PlayerA as RoleA"

should

do is rolefishing.

Wow... I must be magical. I'm trying to shift a wagon off myself that doesn't even exist. Or didn't you realize that the wagon has been on RC much more than me so far.

At the time the statement in question was made, you were the leading wagon with 4 votes.

so just because I made a simple mistake, I lose the right to call anybody out the rest of the game for something that may or may not be a simple mistake?

Also, what bullshit is it that my simple mistake is viewed as anything but, but RC's simple mistake was automatically assumed to just be an honest mistake...

1) It seems to me that town-you, having made a simple mistake earlier in the game that drew attention to yourself, would not immediately assume that RC was making a scum-slip because you would realize the parallels between the two actions. However scum-you, who realizes that the mistake you made actually

is

scummy, would try to press that tell when you saw someone else do it.

2) When I first read what you did to pops, I didn't assume it was a scum mistake. I assumed, just like I did with RC, that you simply forgot, which anyone could do. What changed my opinion was how you responded when people took note of it. You pulled out all this AtE claiming you were a VI, and then brought up the WIFOM of "scum are too careful to make little mistakes like this," which is all crap. I think you got jumpy when someone called you on a dumb mistake, which makes me think you've got a reason to be worried about the spotlight shining your way.

177 [is a] misrep of Korts's stance...

Despite being under enormous suspicion, I was at least trying to continue scumhunting, but even that turned out to be total phail due to an oversight on my part.

The way you word this makes it look like you're refuting one of my points, but basically what you're saying is you

did

misrep another player.

Another case of spinning everything into a way that supports a theory... I haven't been pushing the RC wagon at all. We have been having a conversation.

O RLY?

So you can state the obvious, in

an attempt to look like a perfect little highly informative townie

?

But, You can't have a conversation with someone without thinking you're being attacked?

Sounds overdefensive, imo

...

Resulting to ad hom now

to try to get me lynched

...

this makes me think you're not playing serious enough to remember who you were voting for. This really makes me think

you are just fabricating this case on me

Rhinox thinks my point about 224 is not explained and not a case of backtracking.

Didn’t you say it sounded like a "bad attempt at distancing" though? As in scum distancing scum, or did you mean it sounded like scum distancing from town?

Yeah, I did say that. But that was only 1 possibility. I don't know why I didn't list every possibility. Maybe I just thought it would be assumed.

This is such a terrible defense. If you make a point of saying that X may be indicative of Y, you are implicitly stating that you think that is more likely than not. If you weren't, there would be absolutely no point in saying it in the first place. This is just a half-baked excuse to try to get out of being held accountable for your words.

Says it better than I can.

And your last point is about how you aren't pushing the RC wagon along, which I think I've shown to be false. So out of the 10 or so accusations I've made against you, you only responded to 7 of them, and I just destroyed 6 of them. Vote stays.
----
I really don't like the wording of Pops 286. Pops what are you trying to get at with this statement?

If it is going to come down to lynch Rhinox or not today that is. Perhaps the premature claim works with the possibility of jailkeepers?

----
For the SpyreX scum Triad, I'd like BC to explain why he finds Pops as the least likely of the three. I agree with

Unapologetically unhelpful (see the you aint got nothin on me coppa defense) + hiding in plain sight + bandwagon voting = delicious scum cookie. Come take a bite.

----
@BC RE: post structure. As you said, whether or not someone is lurking doesn't depend on the actual number of posts, it depends on the content. I felt like IAUN, Spy and Jahudo had been contributing, and Huntress, MME and Rishi had not. I didn't actually intend to write a section about each individual player in the game. The way I took notes was simply to write everything I noticed or thought important under the name of the player that said it. When I was done, there was something written under almost every player, so when I posted it sort of looked like I was trying to analyze everyone, but I was actually just focused on the game as a whole. The one thing I had written about IAUN was a quote he made about Rhinox, but I felt like it fell under Rhino's category more than IAUN's.
----
RE: The bottom half of Rhinox's 311, if Rhinox flips scum I would be willing to wager he has a partner somewhere in Rishi/Pops/Huntress.