I just completed a reread. I'm pretty sure Tony Montana is the lynch today, but I want to look at other things so I have some idea of who to kill tonight and to give us a leg up for tomorrow.
When Danchaofan was deciding on who to use his power on last night, he chose randomly out of a list of people without a night action. He listed Plum, Porochaz, and Tony Montana as his candidates. He left out Gorrad, who also had no night action last night. This was probably a simple mistake, but its worth noting.
Something interesting: hasdgfas voted me for not killing night 0. I explained my reasoning (high likelyhood of killing a townie with no info), which he seems to disagree wtih. Yet, he bodyguarded Porochaz, a player of unknown alignment. As Plum pointed out:
Plum wrote:Nothing. Howerver, on a slightly different note, unless I recall incorrectly, you have the choice to
not
take the bullet for someone N0. Hypothesize that you're town. You know Porochaz is a pretty good player and someone you'd want to have around, assuming he's a Townie. From your perspective, he has a %73 or so chance of being Town, however, while you know you're %100 likely to be Town. You only have an effect if Porochaz is targeted to be killed. You are, in that situation, sacrificing a %100 certain Townie for someone with a lower chance at actually being Town N0 (albeit a player who's a useful Townie), when you have no info beyond the above. Maybe a bad choice.
What makes no-killing suspicious while essentially random bodyguarding okay? hasdfas protected Porochaz because of his experience, but is there any deeper reasoning than that?
FoS FuzzyLightning
Fuzzy has posted nothing of substance outside of his action last night and roletheory. Granted, we've only had one serious wagon so far, but staying under the radar is a common scum strategy and that's definitely what I see him doing.
I get the same impression from Master Ruck, but to a much lesser extend. I don't have a good read on him ATM, so we'll see.
FoS Malyss
She posts lots and lots of theory (and sometimes the same theories multiple times), but there is a distinct lack of action in her play. Her latest post says she is still considering Tony, saying the argument over satire is "muddying the waters." Sorry, I don't buy it. By the time she posted that, I would expect everyone to have a clear opinion on Tony's slip.
