Mini 720 - SPQR Mafia {Game Over}

[OhGodMyLife]

Vote Count:

5 to lynch

Not Voting: 8 (dahill1, charter, El Destructo, Incognito, Tuberkulos, Erratus Apathos, Glork, Assmaster)

[charter]

Whaaaa?
I'm the only power role? This is really odd to say the least.

I'm Brutus, leader of the conspiracy. That quote in my first post was made by Brutus. Each night I can find out if a player is Caesar. Night one I investigated Glork, and night two was EA, neither was Caesar.

I asked for a bunch of clarification about my role pregame, and from what I gathered, there's one person that is Caesar. I'm assuming that Caesar is the scum.

This almost seems like some king of inverted AITP variant.

[Assmaster]

Whaaaa?
I'm the only power role? This is really odd to say the least.

I'm Brutus, leader of the conspiracy. That quote in my first post was made by Brutus. Each night I can find out if a player is Caesar. Night one I investigated Glork, and night two was EA, neither was Caesar.

I asked for a bunch of clarification about my role pregame, and from what I gathered, there's one person that is Caesar. I'm assuming that Caesar is the scum.

This almost seems like some king of inverted AITP variant.

Or you're talking out your ass.

[Assmaster]

No. I don't like that claim at all.

[Incognito]

charter, you've been pushing for a dahill1 lynch since like Day 1. If you feel like this is some kind of inverted AitP, why did you never choose to investigate dahill1?

[Assmaster]

I can explain exactly why if you think you don't have enough content from me to due to lurking, but I'd like to get a couple of other peoples reactions to it first.

[Assmaster]

charter, you've been pushing for a dahill1 lynch since like Day 1. If you feel like this is some kind of inverted AitP, why did you never choose to investigate dahill1?

I should probably be reading the game, then I could make decent points like this.

[dahill1]

rereading some
i also don't get why charter wouldn't have investigated me since it seemed like i was/is his number one suspect
also, assuming we have 3 scum, i find it really unlikely that it's 3:1:8, with the neutral being a survivor and only 1 town power role that only serves the purpose of finding just 1 scum.
i'm starting to think that with this number of vanillas it could be more than one scum group

[charter]

charter, you've been pushing for a dahill1 lynch since like Day 1. If you feel like this is some kind of inverted AitP, why did you never choose to investigate dahill1?

Night 1 I didn't because I assumed that after the idiocy of Xtoxm we could just lynch dahill. Night 2 I didn't because (largely the same reason) I wanted to see if Yos was on to anything.
I really have no idea as to the setup, that was just an idea I threw out.

i also don't get why charter wouldn't have investigated me since it seemed like i was/is his number one suspect
also, assuming we have 3 scum, i find it really unlikely that it's 3:1:8, with the neutral being a survivor and only 1 town power role that only serves the purpose of finding just 1 scum.
i'm starting to think that with this number of vanillas it could be more than one scum group

How can you say there's more than one scum group? Look at the conspirator role pm! Look at the one kill per night we're having! Neither makes any sense whatsoever with more than one scum group.

This is why I didn't investigate dahill, no need to. Plus, I was told that glork and EA weren't Caesar, for all I know they can still be scum. That's why I never made any attempt at breadcrumbing my results.

[Assmaster]

i'm starting to think that with this number of vanillas it could be more than one scum group

We have no protective roles and only one death a night. 2 scum groups and a survivor against a town that is all vanillas or vanillas and a cop (a cop who makes no sense with two scum groups) would be retarded.

2:1:9 is the sensible configuration. 1:1:10 is the off chance I am considering, but I don't think that's likely because two neutrals would make for a horrible game that could end on day 1.

[dahill1]

How can you say there's more than one scum group? Look at the conspirator role pm! Look at the one kill per night we're having! Neither makes any sense whatsoever with more than one scum group.

do you honestly think this setup is 3:1:8 then with only 1 power role?

[charter]

Could be 2:1:9 or even more neutrals. Obviously claiming something other than the town's win condition is suicide. With just one power role even 3 scum seems like a lot.

[dahill1]

i'm starting to think that with this number of vanillas it could be more than one scum group

We have no protective roles and only one death a night. 2 scum groups and a survivor against a town that is all vanillas or vanillas and a cop (a cop who makes no sense with two scum groups) would be retarded.

2:1:9 is the sensible configuration. 1:1:10 is the off chance I am considering, but I don't think that's likely because two neutrals would make for a horrible game that could end on day 1.

cross posted with assmaster
2:1:9 might make more sense

[Incognito]

charter, you've been pushing for a dahill1 lynch since like Day 1. If you feel like this is some kind of inverted AitP, why did you never choose to investigate dahill1?

Night 1 I didn't because I assumed that after the idiocy of Xtoxm we could just lynch dahill. Night 2 I didn't because (largely the same reason) I wanted to see if Yos was on to anything.
I really have no idea as to the setup, that was just an idea I threw out.

So walk me through your thought process. At what

exact

moment did you begin to speculate that this might be some kind of AitP variant? You mentioned that you asked for clarification during

pre-game

. Did you speculate about it during that time or some other time?

[Assmaster]

The reason I don't like it is because you are immediately setting yourself up for failure. Flawed cop is an extremely common scum claim, and a good one, allowing you to slide into the role of cop, but also excusing yourself from failures when the people you pass judgement on come up the opposite. At this point in the game, your results are essentially meaningless. Aside from that, you imply that your role was somewhat muddy in it's meaning, and given the simplicity of the role PMs that the townies got, all this inclusion of Ceasers and Brutus's is an unecessary complication to what was previously a straightfoward game. I also dubious that, if a mod was going to include a single power role in a game, he wouldn't make it something as swingy and poor as your described role.

I realise these are points you can't really defend yourself against, cause if you have the role, you have it, but it's why I don't think it's a very good claim.

[charter]

About an hour ago, after everyone had claimed vanilla, and I was a Caesar cop is when I came up with that idea.

I thought it was wierd pregame how I was just told if someone was Caesar. I thought it was pretty obvious from the conspirator and my role PM that Caesar was scum, but (this is just my own speculation) I think that there is probably scum that isn't Caesar.

[Incognito]

That makes slightly more sense and seems to better explain why you wouldn't investigate dahill1 from the get-go.

If charter's telling the truth about his claim, I'm thinking that a 2:1:9 set-up probably makes the most amount of sense. A 3 scum set-up would seem too overpowered against town in my opinion against a large cluster of vanillas, a neutral, and what seems like a sole town power role. Further, if charter's telling the truth, I really don't think a bunch of neutrals against town makes much sense either since that would seem to imply that one of those neutrals would likely be Caesar just like Coriolanus was Cicero. If a charter-Caesar cop got a Caesar-result from the get-go, that would pretty much be game over after the first night, which really doesn't make for an interesting game. Therefore, yeah, I'm thinking that the 2:1:9 scenario suggested by Assmaster makes a lot of sense here probably regardless of whether or not charter's telling the truth about his role, which means we're likely not at LyLo.

[El Destructo]

Elmo and I were considering the possibility of a mountainous setup. First reason for me was seeing everyone flipping "Conspirator". That was at least 4 vanillas. Assuming 3 scum, that left 5 more players to have powers. I was also finding it harder and harder to imagine a 3-player scumteam. Another thing Elmo noticed was the kill choice of Pathetric, who was probably the most town player in the game, and so "Doc-bait". It was a really ballsy kill for scum to make if they suspected a Doc in the setup. We both thought Corio was obvTown and, again, he was killed. Both of the nightkills were odd - if scum thought a Doc was in the setup, wouldn't they try to kill him first?

So yeah, 2:1:9 makes sense here.


des

[El Destructo]

Considering vanilla 2:10 is sorta-balanced, in favour of scum if anything, we simply can't have no power roles. Which means charter is very probably town and very probably not a useless role. Which means Caesar is very probably in the game.

My own theory - that just came to mind - is that the scum are sort of vengeful style. That is, Caesar is in the game along with one 'assistant' role, and they both immediately lose if Caesar dies. That would be consistent with the win condition, I think. The interesting part is that the non-caesar mafioso - I'll just call them "Harry" from here on - is investigation-immune. It would also mean that a single 'guilty' from charter could end the game. I don't really know if that fits, but it's the only logical conclusion that I see, unless there is an 'imperial threat' beyond Caesar, and I can't think what that would be.

Practically speaking, it means that only one of Glork and EA can be scum; it also means that if we lynch Harry, we'll confirm-innocent whichever of Glork and EA are still alive. I think.

I'm curious of people thing my 'vengeful-style' theory would be balanced. It's certainly intriguing, to me.

Elmo

[charter]

Possible, but I don't see anything to suggest vengeful.

I had thought about if Caesar being lynched, scum would lose, but if I ever got a guilty on him that would be game. This seems not really like mafia at all (more like skillfully throwing darts) so I'm inclined to not think that's what we're dealing with.

Can you elaborate on your confirm-innocent theory for me?

[El Destructo]

Assume that we have two scum, and Caesar is in the game, and Caesar is scum.
Then we have scum as {Caesar, someone who is not Caesar}, which we'll call Harry. So the scum are {Caesar, Harry}. (Looking at Wikipedia, I am thinking perhaps Mark Anthony, but it doesn't matter.)
We know that EA is not Caesar. If we lynch Harry, we know EA is not Harry. So EA must then be town. Same goes for Glork. That's the idea.

Also, logically, it must be vengeful-style if:
* There are two scum
* One scum is Caesar
* Killing Caesar is a town win

I think the first two are solid, really. There must be two scum, and your role must be useful, otherwise we'd be playing something harder than vanilla 2:10 which is known to be real tough for the town, I don't think they've ever won. I can't understand why the last one wouldn't be true, but it's far less solid. Hence, it is logical, but like you, I'm not 100% comfortable with it.

I think it's likely you would only get two shots at hitting Caesar, though. I think that's something of a possible counterbalance. I don't know, I'm convinced your role does something useful, it's just a question of what happens if you did find Caesar. I am just assuming you'll be killed tonight, which is another mildly pro-town effect of your role (it forces the scum to essentially kill a random townie when claimed, which is statistically likely not to be the kill they'd otherwise like to make).

---

on that note, unvote vote tuber for voting assmaster with seemingly no reason, and i found it strange (scummy strange) that he didn't even really comment on xtoxm..

Why specifically did you vote Assmaster here, Dahill?

EA: Why exactly did you vote Glork in post 418, the one I indicated a while back?

Elmo

[Assmaster]

Was the complete ignorance of the fact Charter could be Harry/Caeser intentional there Elmo?

[dahill1]

Why specifically did you vote Assmaster here, Dahill

you mean tuberkulos?
mainly because he put a vote on assmaster with no reasoning or explanation at all. also, i found it weird how he didn't even comment on xtoxm's most recent actions at that time

[El Destructo]

Was the complete ignorance of the fact Charter could be Harry/Caeser intentional there Elmo?

Yeah, the only way charter can be scum is if the setup is 2 mafia vs. 9 vanilla townies with 1 survivor as a third-party. Unless I'm mistaken, the way 99% of survivors are played are to uber-lurk; certainly they're worth far less than a townie in terms of scumhunting because they have an incentive not to do anything ever. So it's a definite handicap on the town relative to a townie.

It's arguable if 2:10 vanilla is even balanced or not, but it certainly leans in favour of the scum; 2:9 with a survivor just seems ridiculous to me. On the other hand, as soon as I saw Sim flip, my guess went to 9 town, 2 scum, 1 survivor with a very mild amount of town power, which would fit charter perfectly. So I'm very strongly towards believing charter merely because of the claim. (I pretty much said all this already, but I figured I'd restate it.)

you mean tuberkulos?
mainly because he put a vote on assmaster with no reasoning or explanation at all.

Yeah, sorry. What was your intent in posting what you did in Mafia Discussion?

[Glork]

Normally, playing Outguess the Mod is a pretty bad idea, but it seems to be extremely relevant here.


Straight-up 2:10 mountainous games have favored the scums pretty heavily based on past games. 2:9:1 would appear to favor the scums even more, so there must be something to account for the fact that we had a Survivor in the game as well.


The two most obvious balancing factors would be:
A) Charter's claim being true, thus giving us an opportunity to investigate one of the scums at some point; and
B) The scumgroup being weak somehow

Now, B has a number of sub-options. The only one that has been proposed (Caesar dying = town win) is like 99% out of the question, because that would mean that the town could win outright by D2 on just a lone investigation. Furthermore, the idea that the game is vengeful seems outright stupid, considering the nightkills. As far as I can tell, nobody suspected Pathetric or Corio when they died, and if Xtoxm had gotten a vig kill, I'm certain he would have killed me or Yos to begin with.

Limiting the scums' ability to kill (for example: limited number of total kills, one scumbag being unable to kill) don't appeal to me either if Charter's role exists as he describes.

One possibility that sticks out in my mind would be if Caesar doesn't know his scumbuddy, or the other way around, or both. If this is the case, I would expect there to be some mechanism against crosskilling (such as his buddy being a traditional traitor). This seems the most likely possibility, from what I can gather. If this is the case, though, it would change an awful lot about how each scumbag played.

If A) is wrong and B) is true, I would put upwards of 90% odds that Charter is Caesar's scumbuddy and is using this claim to look for him. Brutus is a very obvious/safe claim, and ironically enough, Brutus is the quintessential

traitor

, making it an excellent breadcrumb.

So I mostly have to decide whether I think Charter is full of shit or not. If so, the play is obvious. If not, I have to do some hard thinking.



Other thoughts/notes:
I glanced at the wiki article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassinat ... ius_Caesar and Marc Antony seems to be the most logical choice for Caesar's scumbuddy.

I very much like ElDes' observation on the Pathetrick kill. It hadn't occurred to me, but it fits with the notion that there were only two scums who believed there to be no Doctor.

ElDes's immediate speculation of 2:9:1 with a weak-ish town bothers me, because when Corio flipped Survivor, I immediately assumed 3:8:1 with above-average power, because it seems to be far more common.