Mini 730 - Hard Nights in the City - OVER!

[Juls]

just noticing this, but from my point of view, if ip is telling the truth(and barring the existence of an investigation immune role), juls would be the only unconfirmed on the bandwagon.

Folks, this is the misinformation that makes don_johnson scummy.

Megatheory is NOT confirmed just because IP says he didn't go anywhere.

It only means that if megatheory is mafia he did not send in the kill. The tracker role ONLY tells you who was targetted and not what action they did. It does NOT tell you his guilt or innocence. Furthermore, NOTHING has been said or done to confirm don_johnson. Please lynch don or Megatheory...I am willing to vote for either.

[don_johnson]

just noticing this, but from my point of view, if ip is telling the truth(and barring the existence of an investigation immune role), juls would be the only unconfirmed on the bandwagon.

Folks, this is the misinformation that makes don_johnson scummy.

Megatheory is NOT confirmed just because IP says he didn't go anywhere.

It only means that if megatheory is mafia he did not send in the kill. The tracker role ONLY tells you who was targetted and not what action they did. It does NOT tell you his guilt or innocence. Furthermore, NOTHING has been said or done to confirm don_johnson. Please lynch don or Megatheory...I am willing to vote for either.

i am mistaken. ip does not confirm mega. mega's posts seemed very town to me on day 1, but i could be skewed because we shared the point of view that nameless was scummy. i am not trying to spread misinformation. i would appreciate it if we could converse a little less argumentatively here on day 2. i am trying to help. my statement was pure speculation. juls, you are now calling for a lynch of on of two people. what was so scummy about mega from day 1?

perhaps you should reiterate your cases in a form which others can actually read and respond to.

also, talk about "misinformation": you lopped off the part of this quote that was the actual conclusion from this train of thought. you skewered my post and have spun it so it looks "scummy". my point with this post is that nameless' bandwagon may have been

entirely

town driven. given his anti town behavior it is entirely plausible. if i get you correct you are saying that you are town. you were on the wagon. in fact, you arguably were one of the

scummiest

voters on the wagon. perhaps you should wait for geraintm's results before you start calling for a day 2 lynch. vote all you want, but if you're going to quote my posts and call for a lynch, don't just chop out the parts that fit your case.

[Porkens]

Answering Don's Question:

you have never explained why. that is not plain and simple. like i said, you explained nothing yesterday. to explain myself, until your last vote you were in my "neutral" category with dan and chaos. this unexplained vote moved you to anti town. not because you voted me, but because you voted without explanation.

Remember that the person

I

wanted to lynch was Ger, but Nameless demanded that I vote for one of the two of you. I found that demand to be a fairly townie (maybe not pro-town) thing to do, so I figured if one of you were actually scum, it was probably you, not Nameless. So you were, at the time, simply scummy by comparison.

Continued Suspicion of Don:

i don't look at it as "bargaining". i am just trying to help town. lynching me would put us at even steven tomorrow from the looks of it(assuming three anti town roles.) all i'm saying is that town allegedly has a vig. from the flavor and number of the kills per night we should reasonably believe that we can clear him. sure there is wifom, mafia could send in a no kill, but at least i would be cleared without a mislynch.

The point isn't to clear you, though! At that point, we would want to clear Ger. And if you are town, why do you want to waste our 1 vig shot to prove it?!

i am a dead man walking. that much is clear. you guys just need to make the right choices to win this game. if anything, my day 1 play should be a complete null tell, so lynching me will prove nothing.

Appeal to emotion.

just noticing this, but from my point of view, if ip is telling the truth(and barring the existence of an investigation immune role), juls would be the only unconfirmed on the bandwagon. i am wondering if mine and nameless' argument could have caused a complete self destruction?

That's an interesting observation but you know you aren't confirmed to the rest of us.

And all about

this

business:

Last, a quick lynch with little discussion will not be helpful for us the next day. Let's get the track results and get discussion going.

porkens: do you have any other suggestions for a lynch? or would you rather force through the day, like juls, without discussion, investigation results, etc.?

Yes, we are now at 5 to lynch so can we please wait for IP and gers's actions. I think following what NL said we should take a closer look at MT (I'm in the process right now).

NO

, I demand a lynch NOW, before, there is any sharing of information. I demand that we ignore the clues we may get from our supposed trackers and quicklynch the most obvious choice im-fucking-mediately.

Really???

Was this such a danger that all three of you had to warn the town about it?

FOS on Atro, Don, and Dan

Don and Dan

if the rest of the wagon was town, it is reasonable for juls to be just what she claims: confused town. porkens, though frustrating, is at least consistent. their vote on me could simply have been "hey i like nameless better." dan wasn't even paying attention to what was going on yesterday. and today he is arguing logic with me. also, i believe his whole "why is don still calling nameless anti-town" to be strawman. focusing on something that isn't terribly relevant to the issue at hand. if ip is telling the truth that means that not only did nameless lynch himself, but he did it with a lot of town help. can anyone honestly deny that nameless' self hammer was in any way protown? he may have thought it was, but it very plainly wasn't. to argue this makes no sense to me.

Sorry that I've been frustrating.

In adition to that, while I belive you're right in that the argument could be a strawman; I just wanted to remind you (all) that

being wrong != scummy

.

Juls is starting to send out a strong scum vibe today:

Folks, this is the misinformation that makes don_johnson scummy. Megatheory is NOT confirmed just because IP says he didn't go anywhere. It only means that if megatheory is mafia he did not send in the kill. The tracker role ONLY tells you who was targetted and not what action they did. It does NOT tell you his guilt or innocence. Furthermore, NOTHING has been said or done to confirm don_johnson. Please lynch don or Megatheory...I am willing to vote for either.

Do you hate day 2 like I hate day 1 ? You've go the pedal to the metal!

Like Don said,

IF

penguin is telling the truth (which I'm inclined to believe at this point), Mega has a 12.5% chance to be the scum, in your scenario, that didn't send in the kill, and IS NOT the serial killer. Those are, in fact, pretty decent odds.

And, I have to agree with Don on this point; What's with the strong Megascum feelings?

[don_johnson]

Answering Don's Question:

you have never explained why. that is not plain and simple. like i said, you explained nothing yesterday. to explain myself, until your last vote you were in my "neutral" category with dan and chaos. this unexplained vote moved you to anti town. not because you voted me, but because you voted without explanation.

Remember that the person

I

wanted to lynch was Ger, but Nameless demanded that I vote for one of the two of you. I found that demand to be a fairly townie (maybe not pro-town) thing to do, so I figured if one of you were actually scum, it was probably you, not Nameless. So you were, at the time, simply scummy by comparison.

fair enough. thank you.

Continued Suspicion of Don:

i don't look at it as "bargaining". i am just trying to help town. lynching me would put us at even steven tomorrow from the looks of it(assuming three anti town roles.) all i'm saying is that town allegedly has a vig.

from the flavor and number of the kills per night we should reasonably believe that we can clear him.

sure there is wifom, mafia could send in a no kill, but at least i would be cleared without a mislynch.

The point isn't to clear you, though! At that point, we would want to clear Ger. And if you are town, why do you want to waste our 1 vig shot to prove it?!

no, the point was not to clear me. the point is to clear both of us without a mislynch.

i am a dead man walking. that much is clear. you guys just need to make the right choices to win this game. if anything, my day 1 play should be a complete null tell, so lynching me will prove nothing.

Appeal to emotion.

maybe, but upon further review and given what little i know of our mod, i doubt he would give town a situation that would be unwinnable with mislynches on both day 1 and day 2, so i'm not sure it is going to be all that detrimental to lynch me. i would rather hit scum today, though, and i'm not sure how much information my lynch would provide. i will leave that up to the rest of you. i am not trying to appeal to emotion as much as i am to common sense. if i am scum, i am brazen.

just noticing this,

but from my point of view

, if ip is telling the truth(and barring the existence of an investigation immune role), juls would be the only unconfirmed on the bandwagon. i am wondering if mine and nameless' argument could have caused a complete self destruction?

That's an interesting observation but you know you aren't confirmed to the rest of us.

yes, i know, this poat was from my point of view. sorry, i am trying to be as clear as possible.


i have no comment on your connections, i have had atronach in my town column for a while, mainly because of his level headed ness. dan just seems to be stuck in second gear and i have previously stated how i feel.

juls is slowly earning my vote. but like i said, i am not driving today.

[Porkens]

no, the point was not to clear me. the point is to clear both of us without a mislynch.

...

maybe, but upon further review and given what little i know of our mod, i doubt he would give town a situation that would be unwinnable with mislynches on both day 1 and day 2, so i'm not sure it is going to be all that detrimental to lynch me. i would rather hit scum today, though, and i'm not sure how much information my lynch would provide. i will leave that up to the rest of you. i am not trying to appeal to emotion as much as i am to common sense. if i am scum, i am brazen.

Ok, I guess if you were thinking we were in Lylo, what you said makes sense. The bit of WIFOM at the end is the kind I like, too.

i have no comment on your connections, i have had atronach in my town column for a while, mainly because of his level headed ness. dan just seems to be stuck in second gear and i have previously stated how i feel.

Speaking of connections, I think that's the second time you've directly complimented atronach's townie-ness.

juls is slowly earning my vote. but like i said, i am not driving today.

This I agree with whole-heartedly. Juls needs to put a little more into her bulldogging.

[Juls]

I will post an analysis after I have heard about geraintm's night actions. I think it is important to know if he used his vig ability or his watcher or ability or neither. And it is important that conversation move fast because our deadline is Thursday. I am disappointed. Let me be disappointed. I will post more after I hear from geraintm.

[insanepenguin02]

To agree here, my tracker info does not at all clear mega of any wrong-doing. It would prove that he is 100% not the sk but he could still be mafia, just didn't make the hit. He also probably wouldn't be a town powerrole as he didn't leave his house, which a doctor, watcher, and some others may have. The fact that he didnt leave his house though narrows the chances down to probably mafia or vanilla townie.

I have to say that I am suspicious of Juls wanting to lynch right away either don or mega.

[Juls]

I am not convinced we have a serial killer yet. I want to know information from geraintm before we go down that path. I feel very comfortable that don and/or mega is scum. I would be willing to lynch them. If I am wrong, then I suck at this game (which I am willing to admit might be the case). I will post an analysis after I hear from geraintm. If he doesn't respond sometime tomorrow I will get something up tomorrow night.

[SpyreX]

Votecount 3000: In space, no one can hear you lynch.

Danchaofan (1): don_johnson

don_johnson (2): Juls, Porkens

Deadline: Thursday, January 29th, 10:30 PM PST

[Porkens]

unvote

until the Ger/Juls situation resolves a bit.

[Danchaofan]

(that said, I still think he should have let antr or gera to put votes in)

I did vote. Only gera did not. D1 was rough, but I think we can get something out of it. I'll take a day to do a re-read of D1 and have a post with some conclusions. Hopefully we'll have gera's results by then.

Sorry, I just remembered your initial indecision and forgot about your vote.

No, MTs statement breaks down into a) a is town, b is scum b) a is scum, b is town. With no other possibilities, unless "you" can find sufficient evidence that there is another case.

you are completely wrong here. mt never states why player "drops" the case. mt never states that b must be scum. you are wrong. i am not going to argue with you.

Your quote conveniently misses the "Either" which MT originally had. Otherwise, I would probably agree that your interpretation might be valid.

i do not miss the either. either i am scum and dropped a case that wasn't working(no mention of why). or i am town who has caught scum. mt's theory is that i am either scum or town. it does not directly translate into nameless' alignment.

Ok, so based on the wording of the first statement, it allows for 3) a is scum, b is scum. But, the implication of MT's statement still is if either flips town, the other is scum. Which is convenient for mafia if both nl and don were bickering townies.

if the rest of the wagon was town, it is reasonable for juls to be just what she claims: confused town. porkens, though frustrating, is at least consistent. their vote on me could simply have been "hey i like nameless better." dan wasn't even paying attention to what was going on yesterday. and today he is arguing logic with me. also, i believe his whole "why is don still calling nameless anti-town" to be strawman. focusing on something that isn't terribly relevant to the issue at hand. if ip is telling the truth that means that not only did nameless lynch himself, but he did it with a lot of town help. can anyone honestly deny that nameless' self hammer was in any way protown? he may have thought it was, but it very plainly wasn't. to argue this makes no sense to me.

Are you still seriously saying I wasn't paying attention yesterday? One post was made while I was half asleep in the morning and your using it to generalize my entire play?
I'm arguing logic with you because my main candidate for scum is MT. So how the logic of his statement works out when my interpretation of it is very convenient for a scum is quite relevant to the day's discussion.
And you going on about how "scummy" a dead townie is 1) distracting 2) convenient for a scum who is going about how "good" a wagon is. I think I echo Juls sentiments in saying that I'll be okay with either IP or MT, I think I'll have a tendency towards MT once I finish my re-read.

In adition to that, while I belive you're right in that the argument could be a strawman; I just wanted to remind you (all) that

being wrong != scummy

.

What does "!=" mean?

Suggestion about trackers: perhaps, if our tracker tracks someone who went out and they did not target a dead person, we have the tracker lie and said that they did not go out at night? Assuming mafia have a role-blocker or something, then us assuming someone that went out a night and did not kill is a town could prove fatal, meanwhile the knowledge that someone did go out and is not part of the mafia makes our power roles vulnerable to attack, pegs some people as vanilla and the mafia will still have an easy time at picking power roles. If we ever decide to string up one of our trackers I think we should then ask because if there is a possible mass confirmation of townies than we can possibly more easily avoid mis-lynches...

[Juls]

What does "!=" mean?

!= means "does not equal" The ! is often used in computer programing for negation.

[Atronach]

i am not trying to appeal to emotion as much as i am to common sense. if i am scum, i am brazen.

The fact that you are aware of this makes it a nulltell.

Really??? Was this such a danger that all three of you had to warn the town about it?

When I saw the first post of the day was a vote with no explanation, and it was followed by another, I definitely think there was a danger that it could have been a quick lynch. We would have learned nothing for D3.

I am not convinced we have a serial killer yet.

Why not?

[don_johnson]

No, MTs statement breaks down into a) a is town, b is scum b) a is scum, b is town. With no other possibilities, unless "you" can find sufficient evidence that there is another case.

you are completely wrong here. mt never states why player "drops" the case. mt never states that b must be scum. you are wrong. i am not going to argue with you.

Your quote conveniently misses the "Either" which MT originally had. Otherwise, I would probably agree that your interpretation might be valid.

i do not miss the either. either i am scum and dropped a case that wasn't working(no mention of why). or i am town who has caught scum. mt's theory is that i am either scum or town. it does not directly translate into nameless' alignment.

Ok, so based on the wording of the first statement, it allows for 3) a is scum, b is scum. But, the implication of MT's statement still is if either flips town, the other is scum. Which is convenient for mafia if both nl and don were bickering townies.

no it doesn't. you are not getting it. i spent four years in college as an english major. what you believe MT implied and what he actually wrote are two different things. i see what you are getting at, though, with MT trying to clear himself. perhaps you can find better evidence to support the theory.

if the rest of the wagon was town, it is reasonable for juls to be just what she claims: confused town. porkens, though frustrating, is at least consistent. their vote on me could simply have been "hey i like nameless better." dan wasn't even paying attention to what was going on yesterday. and today he is arguing logic with me. also, i believe his whole "why is don still calling nameless anti-town" to be strawman. focusing on something that isn't terribly relevant to the issue at hand. if ip is telling the truth that means that not only did nameless lynch himself, but he did it with a lot of town help. can anyone honestly deny that nameless' self hammer was in any way protown? he may have thought it was, but it very plainly wasn't. to argue this makes no sense to me.

Are you still seriously saying I wasn't paying attention yesterday? One post was made while I was half asleep in the morning and your using it to generalize my entire play?

sorry. not trying to generalize your entire play, but you voted near deadline while admitting not having fully read the thread. plus, your inability to comprehend my math(see above) is agitating to say the least. i had you as a null tell all day, but your end of day posting moved you onto my scum list.

I'm arguing logic with you because my main candidate for scum is MT. So how the logic of his statement works out when my interpretation of it is very convenient for a scum is quite relevant to the day's discussion.

yes, all i am saying is that your interpretation is more your opinion and less based in fact. if you want to make a case against MT i am fine with it, but it needs to be coherent.

And you going on about how "scummy" a dead townie is 1) distracting 2) convenient for a scum who is going about how "good" a wagon is. I think I echo Juls sentiments in saying that I'll be okay with either IP or MT, I think I'll have a tendency towards MT once I finish my re-read.

i have not referred to our nurse as "scummy" since he flipped town. i said "his actions were anti-town". and they were. you cannot seriously argue that lynching oneself instead of claiming a "gamebreaking" role is protown. it is not.

Suggestion about trackers: perhaps, if our tracker tracks someone who went out and they did not target a dead person, we have the tracker lie and said that they did not go out at night? Assuming mafia have a role-blocker or something, then us assuming someone that went out a night and did not kill is a town could prove fatal, meanwhile the knowledge that someone did go out and is not part of the mafia makes our power roles vulnerable to attack, pegs some people as vanilla and the mafia will still have an easy time at picking power roles. If we ever decide to string up one of our trackers I think we should then ask because if there is a possible mass confirmation of townies than we can possibly more easily avoid mis-lynches...

not sure i follow you here. as far as avoiding mislynches, if we proceed at the current rate of two nk's per night, we cannot afford too many more. in fact, as i mentioned before, i don't think our mod practices the art of bastardry, but numbers will dwindle, and unless there is a cross kill then town is going to run out of townies quicker than you might think. if you are for a IP or MT lynch i suggest you make a solid case.

number of killings suggests two "anti-town" factions. the beheading has raised the idea of an sk. we talked about it yesterday and people were skeptical about it then. i doubt there is one "anti-town" faction committing two nk's, but i guess it is possible. from a numbers standpoint i am thinking scum pair and sk which makes a "cross-kill" less likely. but i've been wrong before.

[Juls]

I am not convinced we have a serial killer yet.

Why not?

Because if one kill was mafia and the other kill was from geraintm I would be relatively convinced that we do not have a serial killer. I want to know his night action first. If geraintm did not send in a vig attempt then we can explore the Mafia+SK setup. But its useless until I know what geraintm did.

[Atronach]

I understand what you are saying, but are we just taking his word that he didn't use his vig attempt?

[Porkens]

We don't know shit about what he did or didn't do.

[Porkens]

:hint: :hint:

[geraintm]

ok, i am so sorry.
i suspect thins is going to have screwed the game up totally.

basically, i got my claim wrong
i am not a one shot tracker, one shot vig
i am a one shot watcher and one shot vig.

i sent in my action to watch penguin
i put it in my last post

t

hat it then, twilight now?

r

eally thought nameless would have given me a chance to place my vote to avoid the need for him to self vote.

s

nyways, dunno what to say now?

c

an't imagine it looks good for me, having avoided placing a vote, though i did say i was going to place one today, i wasn't going to let night come without voting.

k

nowing don I suspect I'll come in for some analysis early tomorrow.

p

erhaps though they'll be better targets.

e

veryone has to kick chaos, I can't believe a lurker like that got away with doing nothing, just not helpful to town at all

g

lad though in a weird way I didn't have to vote, I fear that I would have ended up voting for don.

u

nfortunately, I think my judgement about him has become slightly clouded the last few days.

i

'd have ended up voting for him over nameless I think because I was so obviously looking at the posts he was making about me I was fully looking at nameless.

n

ot much else to say about today.

so was kinda weirded out and realised the blunder when i got told by mod i was a watcher and not tracker. my plan was, thinking i was a tracker, track penguin, see where he went and that would confirm him one way or the other.
all i got was that penguin's house was empty.

so, the shouting at me can begin...

[geraintm]

opps, did the editing on my quote wrong then as i was bolding, but you get teh idea

[Porkens]

That's a

horrible

breadcrumb, bro :p

But, even though, maybe even

because

, you flubbed your role, your claim makes 1000X more sense now, so I believe ya.

[don_johnson]

That's a horrible breadcrumb, bro :p

QFT

your blunder may help your innocence to others. however:


neither one of our power roles was roleblocked or targeted by scum. it is speculation on my part that there would even be a roleblocker in this game, but i would guess with at least two investigative roles that scum would need to have something to balance out the power. especially since we had a nurse(which would imply a doctor).

that said, do we want a claim from megatheory, or is that premature?

do we want ger to explain why he chose not to vig? he kind of already has, however, it seems as though he is not worried about getting nk'd. i would think most players would vig over track. but i could be wrong. what do others think?

unvote

dan's response was to my vote was town. i am moving him back to the null tell category.

We don't know shit about what he did or didn't do.

FOS: Atronach, Geraintm

poor choice of words? assuming ger didn't use his vig attempt is one thing. posting as though you know what ger is going to say incriminates the both of you. reeks of night talk strategy.

[Atronach]

What are you talking about? Juls and I were having a conversation, that went like this:

Juls: I'm not sure theres an SK
Atronach: Why not?
Juls: Because Gera might have used his vig power last night. I dont want to speculate until I know what he did.
Atronach: I follow, but are you going to take his word for it that he used his vig power?

In this conversation, Juls was already taking it for granted that Gera was telling the truth about his role. I was pointing out that we dont have any reason to believe Gera, as he's unconfirmed.

[don_johnson]

What are you talking about? Juls and I were having a conversation, that went like this:

Juls: I'm not sure theres an SK
Atronach: Why not?
Juls: Because Gera might have used his vig power last night. I dont want to speculate until I know what he did.
Atronach: I follow,

but are you going to take his word for it

that he used his vig power?

In this conversation, Juls was already taking it for granted that Gera was telling the truth about his role. I was pointing out that we dont have any reason to believe Gera, as he's unconfirmed.

bold is different than:

I understand what you are saying,

but are we just taking his word

that he didn't use his vig attempt?

just pointing it out. your choice of words is suspicious.

ger's claim itself, his reaction to my ebwop where i posted info from the wikiguide regarding the role he claimed, and his lack of contribution and questionable "watcher" results all raise my suspicion of him. his results conveniently leave IP and himself clear. it would have been more believable for our "vig" to claim roleblocked. point is: he should have vig'd me. he should have vig'd someone, or mafia should have targeted him somehow.

with all the power implied by the town pr claims i would imagine mafia to have a roleblocker or hitman. both of which could have targeted our outed "vig". why was he left alone?

also, i know he says he wanted to be honest, but why admit to being a "one shot vig" in the first place? it sets up the scenario for the explanation of a nk later in the game. this is a huge liability for town.

honestly, i don't believe him at all.

vote: geraintm

unless someone can come up with a way to clear this man, he needs to be lynched. sorry, but i've changed my mind. i would be happy to drive another wagon.

[Porkens]

So you're vote basically because he didn't vig anyone?