Mini 703 - A Roccisi Autumn - Over

[Korts]

remember, before he linked me to tubby, Korts linked me to someone else:

What is your conclusion from this, Adel?

Rememebr that Korts stayed on the Rage wagon longer than others, and voted for tubby only after Kison, Ecto, IP and I did, and then only once Ecto and IP and I had unvoted. tubby only had one vote when Korts placed a second vote on him at 681.

And from this? I don't see the purpose in bringing these up, especially since you simply state facts and not your conclusions drawn from them. Almost like you're suggesting to the town what to look at, without having to commit to an opinion.

is this the post of a scumbuddy letting his partner know that "I'm bussing you, and I'm going to be lurking, so please don't freak out that my vote is on you"?

Or the post of a mechanical engineer student facing three exams in a row? I wasn't making excuses for my vote, I was making excuses for not being 100% up to date.

I think that any theory that has be as scum needs to explain:
1. why I am so active (both in posting and in voting), and drawing so much attention to myself

Activity isn't a tell of anything, in particular. I'm not aware of your scum play involving lurking on a regular basis, therefore I don't see how your general activeness should be a towntell. Scum may be just as active in posting and voting. You should know better than to ask this.

2. why I built the wagon on tubby

Possible bussing. The pressure on tubby was big enough even without you. Kison, in particular, started questioning tubby pretty much at the same time you did. tubby's play had been lurkish and non-committal throughout the game, it would've been noticed sooner or later anyway, and the Godfather didn't have any utility any more; I don't see why you couldn't have opted for a pre-emptive bus as scum.

3. why I hammered tubby.

Again, quite possible a scenario is bussing. After spotting the implied connection between you and tubby, you could expect Kison and me to push tubby's lynch the next day as well, so why not comply and maybe get the chance to semi-confirm yourself?

I'm fairly sure you realize how these questions fail to prove the case against you wrong.

The case on afatchic is based on his relative inactivity in this game when compared to elsewhere on site; while I agree that it is suspicious, I would think that he would be lurking for tactical reasons only if he were under pressure, which I don't see.

Giving up, good. Now town, please take Adel's advice.

This day has drawn on long enough.

I really beg to differ. In fact, I'd really like to hear lots more from ThAdmiral and afatchic. Why are you in such a hurry?

I was in a "hurry" because my conviction in Adel hasn't been made any less certain by recent arguments, and the discussion prior to my post you're referencing looked to me like it was fading into irrelevance to the game itself. Naturally the best thing to do in cases like that is to lynch.

Right now my LOS looks something like this...
Korts
Adel
ThAd.
IP
Kison

I would say Korts seems somewhat scummy, while Adel and ThAd. are both in the neutral zone still, and i believe IP and Kison are most likely town.

Cases, or at least a brief summary, please. Otherwise, this is just arbitrary (i.e. worthless when it comes to following up with scumhunting).

[ThAdmiral]

why do you think kison is town?

...Speaking of which, didn't you think I was scum just yesterday, ThAdmiral?

I still do...to a certain degree.

Basically I think that there is a greater chance that there is scum out of one of afatchic and ip, but I can't seem to shake the feeling that you are the remaining scum. This is for many reasons but mainly because a lot of people have you high on their town lists for reasons that aren't apparent to me, which always makes me suspicious.

I have a question for you: is this your normal level of activity in a game, and would you say you have been playing quite pro-town in this game?

[Kison]

I have a question for you: is this your normal level of activity in a game,

I've gone from Battle Mage level activity to reprehensible "EXTREME LURKING," many times within the same game, but I've tried to mellow out a bit. One thing that, maybe within the past 9 months, I believe has become more typical of me is that I make fewer posts, but with more content packed into each. Just now as I write this up I know I'll hit preview 50 times before I post and try to cram everything in. Maybe I should stop doing that.

This one: Scum, 55 posts. But I squeeze a lot into each post. To compare, look at shaft.ed's posts in that game. He has about 150, but it takes about the same amount of time to scroll from bottom to top of his isolated posts as it does with mine.

This one: Town, 32 posts(died early). But also condensed content.

would you say you have been playing quite pro-town in this game?

Pro-town, sure. "Quite" pro-town? If by quite you mean "exceptionally", then no. But I see no reason to classify what I've done so far as anything but beneficial. Do you?

hmmm... actually I think vanilla good vs. vanilla townie would be the best basis of comparison. The danger is that you would have to include so many games that changes in the meta get ironed out. Generally you probably have about 1.5 vanilla goons in each 12-player mininormal, and a good sample size would be ~60, so that would be all of the 12-player mini-normals on the two most recent pages of little Italy. Plotting each game's (townie replacement rate) and (vanilla goon replacement rate) on a chart against game number would also give a general idea of how the meta is changing with time. We can estimate that the current meta is projected about two months further along the rolling average line, and get testable predictions from the model.

60/1.5 = 40. There should be more than 40 completed mini normals on the first page of Little Italy, right? I think each forum page holds up to 75 threads.

I still do...to a certain degree.

Basically I think that there is a greater chance that there is scum out of one of afatchic and ip, but I can't seem to shake the feeling that you are the remaining scum. This is for many reasons but mainly because a lot of people have you high on their town lists for reasons that aren't apparent to me, which always makes me suspicious.

Skepticism is fine and typical, but why would other players labeling me as town make me more likely to be scum?

[TDC]

Vote Count

Adel (1): Korts

Not voting (6): Ectomancer, insanepenguin02, Kison, afatchic, ThAdmiral, Adel

[Adel]

60/1.5 = 40. There should be more than 40 completed mini normals on the first page of Little Italy, right? I think each forum page holds up to 75 threads.

there are too many active games, abandoned games, and open games -- there aren't 40 finished 12-player mini-normal games on the first page.

remember, before he linked me to tubby, Korts linked me to someone else:

What is your conclusion from this, Adel?

that you found me suspicious and tried to link me to someone before you tried to link me to tubby.

Rememebr that Korts stayed on the Rage wagon longer than others, and voted for tubby only after Kison, Ecto, IP and I did, and then only once Ecto and IP and I had unvoted. tubby only had one vote when Korts placed a second vote on him at 681.

And from this? I don't see the purpose in bringing these up, especially since you simply state facts and not your conclusions drawn from them. Almost like you're suggesting to the town what to look at, without having to commit to an opinion.

Are you accusing me of offering evidence rather than suspicions and not cramming my theory down the throats of others? guilty.

I am pointing out things that I think are important to look at in order for a townie to make an informed decision.

is this the post of a scumbuddy letting his partner know that "I'm bussing you, and I'm going to be lurking, so please don't freak out that my vote is on you"?

Or the post of a mechanical engineer student facing three exams in a row? I wasn't making excuses for my vote, I was making excuses for not being 100% up to date.

ok. Have you ever been in a game where a scum player offered a bogus excuse for his voting or activity?

I think that any theory that has be as scum needs to explain:
1. why I am so active (both in posting and in voting), and drawing so much attention to myself

Activity isn't a tell of anything, in particular. I'm not aware of your scum play involving lurking on a regular basis, therefore I don't see how your general activeness should be a towntell. Scum may be just as active in posting and voting. You should know better than to ask this.

I don't "know better" because I know how I play differently when I am scum.

lol @ "I'm not aware of your scum play involving lurking on a regular basis"
have you even bothered to look at any of my games as scum, or is it something that you haven't gotten around to yet, like when you said you were going to look at tubby's posts on that other site.

I watched you in crackers. I know you are lazy with your "scumhuntung" when you are scum.

2. why I built the wagon on tubby

Possible bussing. The pressure on tubby was big enough even without you. Kison, in particular, started questioning tubby pretty much at the same time you did.

bullshit. I led, others followed. tubby felt pressure mostly from me. I kept the pressure up until there was a case against him, and there was very little evidence against him that I didn't generate.

tubby's play had been lurkish and non-committal throughout the game, it would've been noticed sooner or later anyway,

like ThAdmiral and afatchic have been noticed? It is one thing to notice, and it is another to actually

do

something about it.
You have failed to productively contribute to hte efforts of the town in this game, and you accuse me of being scum for being responsible for a "pre-emptive bus".
lol. you silly.

and the Godfather didn't have any utility any more; I don't see why you couldn't have opted for a pre-emptive bus as scum.

it would be a very sub-optimal play.

3. why I hammered tubby.

Again, quite possible a scenario is bussing. After spotting the implied connection between you and tubby, you could expect Kison and me to push tubby's lynch the next day as well, so why not comply and maybe get the chance to semi-confirm yourself?

I'm fairly sure you realize how these questions fail to prove the case against you wrong.

I know that you are aware that your kind of circular reasoning could be used to build a "case" against anyone.

The case on afatchic is based on his relative inactivity in this game when compared to elsewhere on site;

fail. please reread again.

while I agree that it is suspicious, I would think that he would be lurking for tactical reasons only if he were under pressure, which I don't see.

Giving up, good. Now town, please take Adel's advice.

This day has drawn on long enough.

I really beg to differ. In fact, I'd really like to hear lots more from ThAdmiral and afatchic. Why are you in such a hurry?

I was in a "hurry" because my conviction in Adel hasn't been made any less certain by recent arguments, and the discussion prior to my post you're referencing looked to me like it was fading into irrelevance to the game itself. Naturally the best thing to do in cases like that is to lynch.

you have "conviction" that I am scum? why? what is your case against me? that I "bussed and hammered tubby"?

[Korts]

that you found me suspicious and tried to link me to someone before you tried to link me to tubby.

Actually, if you look at it in context, it's clear that I found afatchic suspicious primarily, and you only secondarily, since connections between two players are usually implied from one side, and the player whose interactions are implicating of that connection is far more suspicious.

Are you accusing me of offering evidence rather than suspicions and not cramming my theory down the throats of others? guilty.

I am pointing out things that I think are important to look at in order for a townie to make an informed decision.

I'm not suggesting that cramming your theories down the town's throat would be the pro-town thing to do, I'm saying that if you provide evidence, it helps the scumhunting process to elaborate on

how

the presented evidence implicates the suspect. I think what you did in the post I referenced could be classified as a version of Information Instead of Analysis.

ok. Have you ever been in a game where a scum player offered a bogus excuse for his voting or activity?

I don't recall, no. But I get your point. Do you admit there's a difference between making excuses for voting and making excuses for activity?

I don't "know better" because I know how I play differently when I am scum.

lol @ "I'm not aware of your scum play involving lurking on a regular basis"
have you even bothered to look at any of my games as scum, or is it something that you haven't gotten around to yet, like when you said you were going to look at tubby's posts on that other site.

I admit, I haven't. But you referenced Meta-Breaking and Mature Mafia; in one, you kinda lurked, according to yourself (Mature); in the other you were more active. So activity isn't a constant with alignment, we can assess that. And purely theoretically, I think we can safely assume that optimal scum play for every player would be as similar to personal town play as possible, since one of the objectives is not to get caught. Therefore, if you set a meta where you are active as town, it serves your interests as scum to be similarly active.

I watched you in crackers. I know you are lazy with your "scumhunting" when you are scum.

Let me turn your question on you. Have you looked at any of my games as town to see whether that same laziness is present in my town play?

bullshit. I led, others followed. tubby felt pressure mostly from me. I kept the pressure up until there was a case against him, and there was very little evidence against him that I didn't generate.

Alright, I concede that you were the main propagator of the tubby wagon.

I've come to the reluctant conclusion, setting aside my conviction for a minute, that your motive for competing wagons somewhat justifies the wagon-hop between the tubby and IP cases; however the timing (jumping off tubby and beginning the push on the IP-wagon when tubby was put at L-1) is still suspicious.

like ThAdmiral and afatchic have been noticed? It is one thing to notice, and it is another to actually do something about it.

ThAdmiral's been producing constant opinions and some analysis; an afatchic-wagon I can support.

unvote, vote: afatchic

You have failed to productively contribute to hte efforts of the town in this game, and you accuse me of being scum for being responsible for a "pre-emptive bus".
lol. you silly.

hehheh. I'm fairly satisfied with my contribution to the scumhunting efforts, although I probably should've done a lot more research into tubby's meta. I think my pressuring of you has fulfilled its purpose quite well. By the way, I think you're perfectly capable of judging whether a scumpartner would be too much weight to carry on your back to endgame, therefore a "pre-emptive bus" is en entirely possible theory.

it would be a very sub-optimal play.

Which may be the exact reason to do it. I don't know why I'm still arguing this, though.

fail. please reread again.

Pardon. I didn't mean case. I meant point.

you have "conviction" that I am scum? why? what is your case against me? that I "bussed and hammered tubby"?

Actually, it was that you "drove tubby to L-1 and hopped off" coupled with the fact that tubby defended you.

I'm very much on the fence about you right, Adel; some moments, I have a solid town read on you, but when I consider your Day 3 voting, the thought always occurs that the tubby case may have initially started out as a simple distancing act and you panicked at L-1.

[Adel]

I have not looked at any games where you were town.

~~~

How many times did I unvote tubby when he was at L-1? Which of those times (post numbers, please) do you find suspicious?

~~~

you may be interested in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7187 -- the last time I was a scum IC in a newbie game. My pathetic scumbuddy got lynched day 2 on a wagon I did nothing to prevent, and I used the fact that I wasn't on his wagon as evidence that I wasn't his scum buddy by showing how often scum ICs bus their newbie partners. Look at this game to see how I don't panic as my scumbuddy gets lynched. I was very active on day 1, and I was less active in the following days. I attracted attention with a day 1 gambit that "cleared" me to everyone except MoS, who I nk'd N1.

shortly after that I was in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7625 iPick, and failed horribly. I had a weak bus of cicero, IIRC, but both of us played very weakly. Kison almost won that game for us, BTW. I don't recall any panic in this game. I was not very active in this game. I didn't get townie to lynch each other in this game, and I didn't manipulate wagon mechanics very well either. I totally failed to recognize fakeclaims that would've saved the game for our side.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8222 was SMM2, in which I was once again scum with Kison. The structure of that game guaranteed that I would be revealed as scum before the game ended, so I focused on corrupting the signal to noise ratio, and generating (through indirect means) the evidence necessary for townies to lynch each other. I faked confusion and panic in this game. I was very active in this game. I was all about attracting attention and getting lynched in a way that would let TheFonz and Kison lurk though and give coverage to their perfectly weak bus against each other.

ThAdmiral was in a mini-normal with me as scum about a year and a half a go. After we passed on lynching the village idiot and NK'd MoS N1, ABR replaced in (this was during his period of "repalce into every game Adel is in and lynch her" and MoS replaced the village idiot. So MoS and ABR got me lynched, in my second game as scum. I was active in that game.
I attracted attention on day 1 to discredit MoS so that we could NK him N1 without fearing doctor protection. (It turned out that the doc could self-protect, and did on a couple of critical nights)

In short, I believe that I have had two games as scum on this site where it could be said that I "panicked". ABR was in both games, and went out of his way to lynch me in both games, as he did in every game we were in together since our first. ABR's grudge against me was an "outside of game" complication that still really pisses me off. We lost every game we were in together where we shared an alignment (except for one assassins in the palace game) and it made mafia very much not fun for me.


~~~

I am very interested in hearing afatchic's and ThAdmiral's opinion of Kort's alignment. If you had to choose between IP and Korts, who would you choose, and why? What do you think of Korts having "conviction" that I was scum earlier on this page, and now he is on the fence?

[Adel]

regarding getting replaced as a town tell: while we haven't quantified if it is a universal tell or not, I didn't directly point out why I thought that it was a town-tell: of the games I have replaced into, more than 15 times I replaced a town-aligned player, and only once did I replace a scum-aligned player.

[Adel]

Pop quiz:

1. Who accused who of bussing darkdude?
2. What are the post numbers that contain those accusations?
3. Who accused who of bussing tubby?
4. What are the post numbers that contain those accusations?

[ThAdmiral]

would you say you have been playing quite pro-town in this game?

Pro-town, sure. "Quite" pro-town? If by quite you mean "exceptionally", then no. But I see no reason to classify what I've done so far as anything but beneficial. Do you?

Basically...yes. As in I'd still like you to answer the question.

I still do...to a certain degree.

Basically I think that there is a greater chance that there is scum out of one of afatchic and ip, but I can't seem to shake the feeling that you are the remaining scum. This is for many reasons but mainly because a lot of people have you high on their town lists for reasons that aren't apparent to me, which always makes me suspicious.

Skepticism is fine and typical, but why would other players labeling me as town make me more likely to be scum?

I think the key bit is that I don't see why they have.

[Kison]

Basically...yes. As in I'd still like you to answer the question.

Which question do you want me to answer? I already answered your question:

Pro-town,

sure

. "Quite" pro-town? If by quite you mean "exceptionally",

then no.

Are you wanting me to answer my own question?

But I see no reason to classify what I've done so far as anything but beneficial. Do you?

I will do so anyway. Obviously I've not played perfectly, otherwise I'd never have gone after Rage, but I believe that as a net sum I've produced more positive content than negative. I went after the two people I was most suspicious of yesterday, and helped crack Tubby216. Now, do I believe this is reason to write me off as town? Of course not, and don't blame you for

not

writing me off. However, you did vote me yesterday, and you did indicate you had other reasons for suspecting me. My curiosity remains on what those other reasons are.

~~~

ThAdmiral's been producing constant opinions and some analysis; an afatchic-wagon I can support.

unvote, vote: afatchic

I'm trying to figure out why you pulled this 180:

Alright, I concede that you were the main propagator of the tubby wagon.

I've come to the reluctant conclusion, setting aside my conviction for a minute, that your motive for competing wagons somewhat justifies the wagon-hop between the tubby and IP cases; however the timing (jumping off tubby and beginning the push on the IP-wagon when tubby was put at L-1) is still suspicious.

Adel has been bringing this up since yesterday(game days), I think. Why does this suddenly become convincing enough to turn you away from your previous conviction that she is scum?

I'm very much on the fence about you right, Adel; some moments, I have a solid town read on you, but when I consider your Day 3 voting, the thought always occurs that the tubby case may have initially started out as a simple distancing act and you panicked at L-1.

You mentioned just yesterday(real life) that you were convinced that Adel was scum and ready for the day to end(and in fact, I think you've been calling her scum the entire game day), but here you claim you have moments of 'solid town reads' on her. When was the last time you had a solid town read on her?

[Korts]

I have not looked at any games where you were town.

Fair enough. I'll give some examples.

In Sci-fi/Fantasy Mafia (Spock, Vanilla Townie) I played a fairly pro-town game (outside random voting, I was only ever voted in the endgame, by the last remaining scum). Nevertheless, you can see my inherent lazyness here, too; I was reluctant to go back for re-reads and mostly tried to generate discussion from recent reactions.

In Facedown and Thirsty Mafia (Bulletproof), I replaced in Day 3 and procrastinated on my read up a fairly long while--I actually didn't finish it 100% because discussion picked up. If I'd have done a more in-depth read, I could've maybe caught one scum at least.

In The New C9 (Doctor), I was under pressure fairly early on and survived to endgame with a doctor claim and the scum trying to WIFOM the town into lynching me; I did quite a lot of reading in endgame, but until then I pretty much coasted; I particularly phased out around the time of The Fonz and ting's wall o' text wars.

How many times did I unvote tubby when he was at L-1? Which of those times (post numbers, please) do you find suspicious?

Now that I went back and checked, it was twice. I remembered only one; the more suspicious one was probably the first, in post 705, where you unvote for unstated reasons, baiting a question. In post 798, you unvote due to Ecto asking the town not to lynch yet, and I can understand that. What's particularly strange is what you do

after

the second unvote: you vote IP in post 823 without any particular reasoning or any discussion of IP in your posts prior to the vote, and with the former willingness to lynch tubby apparently disappearing.

In short, I believe that I have had two games as scum on this site where it could be said that I "panicked". ABR was in both games, and went out of his way to lynch me in both games, as he did in every game we were in together since our first. ABR's grudge against me was an "outside of game" complication that still really pisses me off. We lost every game we were in together where we shared an alignment (except for one assassins in the palace game) and it made mafia very much not fun for me.

Thanks for that. I'm now slightly more convinced you are town. However I get the thought that I'm easily fooled by selective evidence due to my inherent laziness.

Sorry, but I don't have the time to research the answers to your pop quiz. Off the top of my head, Kison and I accused you of bussing tubby, and IP, and Ecto as far as I remember accused Rage of bussing darkdude.

-----------------

I'm trying to figure out why you pulled this 180:
<quote>
Adel has been bringing this up since yesterday(game days), I think. Why does this suddenly become convincing enough to turn you away from your previous conviction that she is scum?

Because I realized I was basically ignoring her reasoning.

You mentioned just yesterday(real life) that you were convinced that Adel was scum and ready for the day to end(and in fact, I think you've been calling her scum the entire game day), but here you claim you have moments of 'solid town reads' on her. When was the last time you had a solid town read on her?

While reading posts I frequently got the feeling that she was pro-actively scumhunting, and her actions make sense. But my posts were always centered on her interactions with tubby, which strongly implied her as tubby's partner, and thinking about that reinforced my conviction. During my recent replies to Adel I decided to consider things more thoroughly from her angle and I second guessed myself.

Meanwhile, looking into Adel's voting pattern I found this post.

umm not sure i guess if i had to say

ip and thAdmiral

i think most pro town are adel and ecto

korts, rage and kison are pretty much middle of the road could go either way

Tubby would probably put his partner on the pro-town list or in the middle of the road. The latter is slightly more possible, since it gives room for distancing moves; however, having played with tubby before I'm fairly sure he would go for the simplest solution, so that implies Adel or Ecto. Ecto can only be scum if ThAdmiral is, too, so I'm second guessing myself again.

unvote, vote: Adel

[Korts]

Hmm.

unvote

I noticed after hitting the submit button that tubby omits afatchic from his list. This was after he had replaced in, and after his catching up posts, so there would've been enough material to decide.

Also note this:

I would first like to say that Im pretty sure one of the scum is in tubby/ IP, however I don’t think they are both scum, as I will explain later.

This is right before tubby's list of suspicions, and after saying this, afatchic goes on to make a big case against IP. This implies that afatchic wanted to distance, and also wanted IP to be lynched. The sentence "however I don't think they are both scum" would make more sense if all of afatchic, tubby and IP were scum, but this is still heavy implication.

vote: afatchic

[ThAdmiral]

I will do so anyway. Obviously I've not played perfectly, otherwise I'd never have gone after Rage, but I believe that as a net sum I've produced more positive content than negative. I went after the two people I was most suspicious of yesterday, and helped crack Tubby216. Now, do I believe this is reason to write me off as town? Of course not, and don't blame you for

not

writing me off. However, you did vote me yesterday, and you did indicate you had other reasons for suspecting me. My curiosity remains on what those other reasons are.

No other reasons. In fact much of my feelings did rely on whether tubby was scum or town so your mafia-likelihood did diminish a fair bit from yesterday.
I'd still say you are my pick for scum if it isn't afatchic or ip, though, just because I

know

ecto is town and korts and adel were on

both

scum lynches.

[insanepenguin02]

Korts, you make some good points there on afatchic. I have been thinking that afatchic has been pretty scummy throughout but couldn't find any evidence. The way that afatchic had dealt with the tubby/my wagons though does show that afatchic wanted to distance away from tubby and push my lynch. With tubby being scum, I think that it is a fair assumption that afatchic is as well. Therefore:

Vote: Afatchic

[Adel]

vote: insanepenguin02

[Adel]

@Kison: please pick a wagon to support before Ecto voices his opinion.

[Ectomancer]

Yeah, I'm going to be really mad if there is a lynch before I get the chance to have my final say.

[Kison]

@Kison: please pick a wagon to support before Ecto voices his opinion.

If by 'pick a wagon' you mean that I should vote one of the two players with votes right now, then I'll have to decline.

Vote: Adel

My list is something like this:

- Adel (9)
- InsanePenguin (8)
- afatchic (8)
- Korts (7)
- ThAdmiral (7)
- Ectomancer (1)

The numbers are an arbitrary means of ranking.

The vote is for:
- Tubby bailing. Yes, we've been over this a half dozen times, but despite the late explanation for why she bailed, the timing remains convenient. However, the comparison I drew before wasn't as strong was I'd thought.
- Bringing up mass claim & supporting it. We went through how mass claiming isn't beneficial, and there's really not much more to it. Mass claiming would be good for scum at this point.
- Pushing the idea of Ectomancer being a secondary Godfather. Never for a second seemed logical to me, and am not sure why it would seem logical to anyone.

InsanePenguin is second primarily because of his eagerness for the mass claim. Yes, he had already claimed by the time he shouted that he was '100% vanilla', but it was the intent of the post that has me inclined to believe he's more likely to be scum as a result of it. His most recent vote on afatchic looks very opportunistic to me; he's basically riding entirely on what Korts brought up while claiming he had been suspicious of afatchic the entire time as a sort of justification for agreeing with him. Reluctance to place him higher is because I'm wary that he may be noobing out.

Question for afatchic: Why do you rank Korts as highest on your list. Korts was actually

lowest

on my list(exception: Ectomancer) until his most recent change of heart with Adel. So I'm curious to see what has you swooning over him.

So, basically, I think Adel is most likely scum. Out of the two wagons thus far I'd go with IP.

[Adel]

regarding massclaim:
1. there are 7 alive
2. 1 (very small chance of 2) scum are still alive
3. there are 0, 1 or 2 guns in the hands of town players
4. it is not a good idea to wait until lylo or mislynch and lose to massclaim. (a good fakeclaim = autowin for scum)
5. town directed vig kills increases the town-directed-kill to scum-kill ratio.
6. we probably want to use any guns available tonight
7. revealing power-role targets will probably result in confirmed innocents.
8. without massclaim we can't accurately evaluate the odds of there being 4 mafia players in the setup

with 1 gun in town hands:
lynch + vig kill + maf kill = 4 alive tomorrow =mislynch and lose (loss in the case of two living scum players)

with two guns in town hands:
lynch + 2 vig kills + maf kill = 3 alive tomorrow = lylo (loss if there are two living scum players)

[Korts]

That's a convincing case for massclaim, Adel. And if we decide to do it, how do you propose we go with it? Popcorn starting with most suspected, random, or other?

[Adel]

not popcorn. let ecto direct the claim order one claim at a time.

[ThAdmiral]

Ready when you are ecto.

[Ectomancer]

First would be Korts, followed by Adel, Kison, ThAdmiral, and afatchic. IP will then do a full reveal (if applicable) and then myself. A why would be the order of suspicion with the exception that afatchic kept getting pushed back due to the skill and experience of the 3 players in front, and of course IP has already claimed. That order is a bit blurry towards the front.

[afatchic]

This is right before tubby's list of suspicions, and after saying this, afatchic goes on to make a big case against IP. This implies that afatchic wanted to distance, and also wanted IP to be lynched. The sentence "however I don't think they are both scum" would make more sense if all of afatchic, tubby and IP were scum, but this is still heavy implication.

vote: afatchic

Korts pretty sure i gave a post with my "case" against both of them stating i would like to see tubby lynched, but IP was second on my LOS. the reason i said i didn't think they were both scum due to IP's misunderstanding of bussing, then making a pretty decent case against him a few pages later. Seriously, this is a bad excuse. im sure there are plenty of ways to build a decent case on me, but im positive this aint a good place to start.