Mini 701 - That's a Wrap! (Game Over)


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Post Post #1050 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 8:33 am

Post by TDC »

Wait a minute, you're claiming that both kills are from
mafia
and not just
scum
?

I can still not see how there would be a one person mafia, so my best guess would be two two player groups? But then - myk was just revealed as mafia, not as "XY mafia" or whatever. Also.. four scum in total.. that can't possibly be balanced, can it?

I remember someone suggesting that maybe, just maybe the mafia had two kills, was it SpyreX? That becomes an interesting tidbit now.
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Post Post #1051 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 8:52 am

Post by TDC »

Sorry for the n-post, but looking into the first post, myk is mentioned as "Mafia Goon (Anti-Town)" which at least to me is sort of suggesting that there is another "Anti-Town" faction whose member(s) would not be revealed as Mafia, thouth, too, as Anti-Town. I see that we're entering the realm of outguessing the mod there.

--

spring: I've read your post again, and am getting more confused by it when the first time around when I thought it had the "both kills by scum" meaning..
This means 2 mafia of 2 and 1 each. This means town has a chance to win only if we lynch the 2 man mafia.
Am I reading this right that you're speaking of member numbers
left
, as in you think there are two groups of two? How could that possibly be balanced?
2 Mafia + 2 Mafia + 2 Masons + 2 Vanilla (Ecto, I) + 1 Doc + 1 of (SpyreX-Cop, mrfixij-JK, you-forensic whatever, dj-vanilla)..
It just doesn't add up.
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Post Post #1052 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:18 am

Post by TDC »

Haha, I just noticed all this thinking was worthless, here's why.

Out of Thread - Exhibit A:
Rage, in the Mini Normal Queue wrote:Oop! Looks like my game is gathering up players quickly, so here's some specs (
shamelessly
based on TDC's):
  • Closed, 9 players
  • Standard roles (Reference)
  • Day 1 start
  • No Cults
  • Deadlines for each Day every three weeks, extension is possible if you beg
  • Confirmation by PM, prods go out after three days of a player's inactivity and answer them In-Thread
(Note: He was subsequently corrected by MeMe hat his game actually has 10 players)

Now, let's go to that wiki page:
Mafia

* Goon
* Godfather

[edit] Town

* Townie
* Cop
* Doctor
* Mason

[edit] Third-party

* Serial Killer
Do you notice something? Neither Jailkeeper nor forensic whatever are in there.

Kind of the anit-climax, but the remaining scums are mrfixij and springlullaby.

vote: springlullaby
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Post Post #1053 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:19 am

Post by TDC »

EBWOP: I only quoted the "Basic" section since that is what I think Rage referred to and it includes all other roles we know of so far (even the SK).
The JK and forensic-bla do not appear in the advanced section either.
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Post Post #1054 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:20 am

Post by TDC »

EBWOP2: Well, we need at least one scum roleblocker to have blocked Spyrex, so I assume he's using advanced roles, too, but as I said, the two claimed roles don't exist in there either.
That, or SpyreX is yet another scum, but I doubt that.
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Post Post #1055 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:30 am

Post by mrfixij »

Well, I couldn't expect it to go on forever. TDC is absolutely right about the "wasn't us, must be them" mentality. I'm mykonian's goon. Softclaimed D1 because I didn't think mykonian would counterclaim doc. He said N0 that he was going to bus me, but he went overboard, and then got himself killed. Were it not for the softclaim, his death would have made me virtually invincible thanks to the ridiculous push he made on me D1.

We agreed N1 to have mykonian send in the kill in case of tracker/watcher. He was a dead man walking anyways, no sense in risking my hide. Imagine my surprise when he was roleblocked, but a kill still occurred. Naturally, my claim would have to be some kind of blocking role, which if the blocker claimed would out him. Town Roleblocker sounds scummy as hell, so I decided to go with Jailkeeper because deciding the kill is a good as docing a towny. And yes, I killed ecto N2. The 2 man group decided to kill ort to make a claimed town player look bad. Given that they had a roleblocker who targetted myk, it makes sense that they knew I was bluffing.

However, based on Spring's finding, there must be another group of 2 out there. A 1-person mafia is a serial killer. With 6 left, lynching me results in mafia 2 winning. I'm getting shot tonight, no questions asked. The only way town can win is with a lynch of mafia 2 today, or a crosskill tonight.

I'd like to hear from Don. He's been scummy as all hell, and since he's not my buddy, I'm guessing he's part of the other maf. Or perhaps a TDC godfather, although godfather/blocker against goon/goon is unlikely. Regardless, since I can't call anyone out on a scum quickhammer, since I am in a way scum...

vote: don Johnson
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Post Post #1056 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:31 am

Post by TDC »

No, no you're wrong.

springlullaby is the SK.

But thanks for the Scum RB claim ;)
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Post Post #1057 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:35 am

Post by TDC »

By the way, if there were two two player scum teams, then we'd need to lynch YOU and not one of them.
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Post Post #1058 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:38 am

Post by mrfixij »

TDC: I'm afraid you're mistaken.

3/2/1, with me being the 1. If I die in day, part of the 3 dies at night, and the 2 person scum wins. At this point, town has to use me as an SK in order to survive, numerically. Otherwise, two townies die and the game goes to 1/1/1, where town wins with a NK and scum wins with an opposing team lynch. It's a classic scenario on AIM, where stranger setups are more common. 2 scum teams also balances out the masonry, which otherwise severely balances a game towards town (see mini 688, where vollkan faked doc as scum)
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Post Post #1059 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:39 am

Post by TDC »

Ah, you're right.

Not that it matters, cause springlullaby is the SK.
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Post Post #1060 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:41 am

Post by mrfixij »

Unless that was a slipup, and you're admitting to being in the 2 man mafia? Yes, you have an inno scan on you, which makes you nigh invunerable. However, spyre's cop could be a fakeclaim (mod confirmation of sanity in a closed setup is O_O), you could be godfather, or you could have just missed the number crunching.
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Post Post #1061 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:41 am

Post by TDC »

And I don't find 2 Mafia + 1 SK + 1 Doc + 1 Cop + 2 Masons + 3 Vanilla that unbalanced.
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Post Post #1062 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:42 am

Post by TDC »

Have you read what I've posted about Rage's list of possible roles? You should :)
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Post Post #1063 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:49 am

Post by mrfixij »

As soon as a mason outs himself, that becomes 2 high-priority targets for scum who town will 99/100 times never lynch. That's 2 scum night kills, while the SK whittles away at any killing role he can to save his own ass. It's not in an SK's best interests to kill a mason because the town is going to spend so much time mulling over the mason death that it's easy to go beneath the radar.
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Post Post #1064 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:50 am

Post by TDC »

Out of curiousity mrfixij: How do you intend to win this game at this point?
I'm not blaming you for trying, but I don't see how it's possible.
You'd need to let spring alive (because if she goes down you're the next lynch tomorrow and it's game over) and hope that she doesn't kill you through the night (but obviously, she would)..
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Post Post #1065 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:53 am

Post by mrfixij »

Should I live through tomorrow: It'll end up a night WIFOM game where the towny is forced to NK and hope that the killers crosskill. I've won and lost a handful of games in the same manner on AIM. The sheer fact that I am not the blocker and myk was blocked is good enough to convince me that it's crucial for me to find the blocker, otherwise I'm a guaranteed loss due to being blocked when I try to kill scum.
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Post Post #1066 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:58 am

Post by TDC »

You are still assuming that spring is town and talking the truth about there being two mafia groups, when in fact she's proven scum (and within all reasonable thought SK at that).
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Post Post #1067 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:59 am

Post by TDC »

How would a townie go about submitting a night kill? I've tried that often, but it never worked :(
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Post Post #1068 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 10:00 am

Post by TDC »

And you sure are the blocker, but I can see how lying about that is about the only thing you can still lie about ;)
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Post Post #1069 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 10:00 am

Post by don_johnson »

i cannot buy the idea of two 2 person mafia in a ten person game. that means there are two nightkillers left. Fixijj has claimed to be one, so i must:

vote: fixijj


any one of us could be lying about their role at this point. occam's razor points to SL, but fix has claimed scum. town needs to lynch scum today, so why chance it?
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Post Post #1070 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 10:01 am

Post by SpyreX »

Holy hell in a handbasket.

Well, I wish I was here for the awesome leadup to the scum claim, but lets go ahead and discuss spring's role and the huge issues with it.

So, your breadcrumb yesterday was that you didn't like the SK talk at all, because 2 potential kills per night in a 10 person town doesn't make sense - yet, your counter theory is two mafia groups..... which would be again 2 kills.
Right now I'm very much doubting Spyrex' claim:
1. I very much doubt there is another investigative role on top of mine.

2. The breadcrumb Spyrex pointed to sucks. It doesn't indicate anything positive, just that 'he knows'. Which leaves big room on claiming whatever he likes on TDC's alignment. I would expect a cop breadcrumb to be a positive indication of guiltiness or innocence.

3. I still think his play D1 was very scummy.

This is very relevant in light of the fact that I think Spyrex is part of the 2 man mafia, gambitting to the finish line. He is either telling the truth about TDC or TDC is his scumbuddy.

Mrfixit is either telling the truth or remaining member of the mykonian scumgroup.
1.) Applying the Razor in a 10-man mini normal.
2.) Its phonetic (to be not obvious) I know, iknow, inno.
3.) ..sure.

Now, lets take a look at these statements:
This is very relevant in light of the fact that I think Spyrex is part of the 2 man mafia, gambitting to the finish line. He is either telling the truth about TDC or TDC is his scumbuddy.

Mrfixit is either telling the truth or remaining member of the mykonian scumgroup.
1.) really strange there is no mention of DJ. However, considering fix claimed scum rb, well the only scenario where all three are scum is lose.
2.) Every other statement says absolutely nothing. They're either scum or town is what they boil down to.
TDC wrote: SpyreX: I forgot this earlier, why investigate me of all people N1? Myk was obvscum, but I remember you being pretty suspicious of both spring and dj.
Ok, first off I'm going to lay out there I haven't ever been a cop before so my thought process may be a little "unorthodox".

I wanted to protect my role until either I thought I was going to be a viable NK target (having the mason helped with that) or I had enough innocents (or guilties) to win the game. Switching my stance on either spring or dj if they came up for lynch after I had an innocent would have been a huge red flag that I thought would have been enough to tip off scum.

Additionally, day 1 you were quiet in comparison to a lot of players - yet your posts were solid. IF you were scum, I was worried that you would be able to coast towards endgame. However, if you were town I thought you were a definite "good confirmed" to have.

The reason for Ecto I explained earlier - I expected ort or fix (but not both) to be the NK. If that had happened we would have had enough to push ahead based on raw numbers (especially if fix was the NK).
Sorry for the n-post, but looking into the first post, myk is mentioned as "Mafia Goon (Anti-Town)" which at least to me is sort of suggesting that there is another "Anti-Town" faction whose member(s) would not be revealed as Mafia, thouth, too, as Anti-Town. I see that we're entering the realm of outguessing the mod there.
Considering my result on you was specifically "Pro-Town" you are, as far as I can tell, correct.

Catching up with everything else is easy enough. Spring is the SK, Fix is the last maf - as long as we kill one of the killing roles tonight we win tomorrow.

Vote: Springlullaby
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I always lynch scum... sometimes they're just not mafia. :P

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Post Post #1071 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 10:03 am

Post by SpyreX »

@DJ - applying the razor to this means that it's 6 of one, half dozen of the other which one of Fix or SL gets lynched.
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Post Post #1072 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 10:09 am

Post by mrfixij »

Au contraire, I think spring isn't town. She's maf. That's why she said two mafia kills. Seeing mykonian die, who definitely isn't her scumbuddy (unless we're dealing with unknowing aligned here), she realizes that there's something up, and covers for it by outing her own mafia in a way. In which case, it makes sense to lynch her. And DJ is her buddy.
Also answer to 'e, it, scumbag, 'ey you!, and his royal towniness.
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Post Post #1073 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 10:14 am

Post by SpyreX »

We're in agreement that spring isn't town. She's the SK.

Saying two mafia kills is an attempt to get TDC, DJ and I to go after each other (assuming we lynch you first).

However, if you are scum AND spring AND DJ are a different scum group, well, we've lost any way I cut it.
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Post Post #1074 (ISO) » Sun Jan 18, 2009 10:16 am

Post by don_johnson »

SpyreX wrote:@DJ - applying the razor to this means that it's 6 of one, half dozen of the other which one of Fix or SL gets lynched.
i am starting to feel like a patsy. why are both you and TDC pushing for a lynch of SL? if its half a dozen of one or six of the other, why would we not lynch the 100% confirmed scum?

do sk's ever have investigative immunity? can't the "godfather" role have immunity? fix softclaimed day 1, why wouldn't a nightkiller take him out?

my vote stands for now. there are too many variables still out there. sorry if i am misapplying the razor, but i feel better with a sure thing.
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