Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[Huntress]

Vote Count

Cephrir 4 - (OhGodMyLife, Qwints, Jazzmyn, Corvuus)
Apothecary 1 - (MacavityLock)
Qwints 1 - (Cephrir)

Not voting 3 - (Apothecary, Elmo, LLamaFluff)

With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

[OhGodMyLife]

OGML is not a unstoppable juggernaut

I´m the Juggernaut, bitch!

[LlamaFluff]

mod

can you prod Jazz?

[Jazzmyn]

No need to prod me... I am here but I have been re-reading from the very beginning of the game and trying to look at all of the posts with as critical an eye as I can, knowing what we know now, and I am taking new notes (since the old ones may no longer be valid in light of what we now know for sure), and real life has interfered a bit as well, so I am only up to page 22 so far.

Regards,
Jazz

[Elmo]

The only thing making me hestitate over pushing for a qwints lynch is the pretty town vibe I got from Atlas; having said that, it was pretty much just a vague impression I got, I want to go back and reread.. but my computer just died on me, so . It'd be good if people who haven't done so (I can only remember LF commenting) would give their opinon of Atlas and maybe qwints, especially his reasons for Ceph vote.

I do currently think that if Ceph is town, then there's probably scum in {Qwints, Jazzmyn}, and I'm increasingly leaning towards CephTown the longer this wagon goes on, though. Also, I keep thinking that this is no majority no lynch for some reason, the actual deadline mechanics mean that a non-Ceph wagon doesn't need that many other votes to go places. So what I said about this probably ending in a Ceph lynch anyway is not quite right. Hmm.

[OhGodMyLife]

I´ve already stated my opinion that qwints is town, but there it is again.

[Corvuus]

Elmo:

i'm fairly new to this but why does Ceph seem more town the longer the wagon 'stalls/goes on'.

I mean, he *could* be scum and that is why scum aren't finishing him off, etc. etc. and town just needs to finish it from going on longer.

Or he *could* be town, and scum are either already on the wagon or staying off and laughing their heads off as we lynch a townie.

Either case, I don't see how the 'length' of the wagon makes Ceph more likely to be town unless I am missing some kind of logical fallacy.

Corv

[Elmo]

It's more like, the longer it goes on, the more reactions we get from him and other people. Pretty much all the reactions to his wagon have moved me in the direction of CephTown.

The biggest thing is that currently, pretty much everyone wants a Ceph lynch. Literally the only vote elsewhere has been ML on Apoth, and I seriously doubt that's a calculated scum vote because it'd be staggeringly obvious to a scum-ML that an Apoth wagon wouldn't build, at least today. And he's been pretty consistent, even after that's obvious to him. So basically, we can say that some scum are among everyone, and everyone wants Ceph lynched; as such, the scum wants (or are at least fine with) a Ceph lynch. I'm pretty sure that e.g. qwints and Jazzmyn are good with a Ceph lynch regardless of their actual alignment, now. And deductively, if the scum wanted Ceph not to be lynched, then they'd usually start a wagon on someone else.

Now, the scum voting block has been "diluted" quite a bit (sketch numbers, they've lost a third, we've lost an eighth) and if Ceph's scum, then logically he's probably only got one buddy, so they might be a bit constrained in what they could do. But there is just this complete lack of anyone else trying to get some action going that really bugs me. I think they have a third, and I think they'd try.

That.. aaand I've always thought Ceph was a bit townish, it's just that the margin of error isn't huge because he's (in my perception) not very pro-town when he is town, and for quite a while he didn't do a huge amount. I generally won't defend anyone that I don't have a fairly strong town read on, simply because sometimes shitty wagons form on scum; if you say "hey that's a shitty wagon" even when it is, it looks scummy afterwards in a way that's very difficult to defend against and tends to get you lynched. He's been somewhat more townish since his wagon started, in my opinion.

That, and Ceph seems to be being wagoned by process of elimination; that is, I don't know who else I'd want to lynch (at least before the Ceph wagon) because everyone looks fairly town. I suspect at least one scumbag is good scum, e.g. Jazz/LF, actually. I don't think he's looked scummy, personally, just not very pro-town; my experience is he doesn't try very hard to actually look townish. From that perspective, I don't find it hugely appealing, and actually I dislike those kinds of lynches. If it's a mislynch, everyone just sorta shrugs their shoulders and goes "meh" afterwards.

[qwints]

Elmo, if you think I'm scum, then press your case. That goes for anyone who thinks someone besides Ceph is scum. We're not going to get a lot more out of discussing Ceph without producing some more content.

[Cephrir]

Possible LA due to screwed-up computer.

[MacavityLock]

Likely last post before my No Access begins.

Will start digging in again when I get back.

[OhGodMyLife]

Somebody wake me up when this day ends.

[LlamaFluff]

Somebody wake me up when this day ends.

I really want Jazz to do that reread she has been promising for what... a week? I am starting to get to the point I just want to end the game though.

[Cephrir]

The game's not going to end.

[LlamaFluff]

@mod - prod jazz

, she is intentionally ignoring this game at this point it would seem

[Jazzmyn]

@mod - prod jazz

, she is intentionally ignoring this game at this point it would seem

No, I'm not ignoring it at all. I have finished re-reading all 34 pages and now have twelve and a half pages of new notes that I have to analyze/summarize. I'm trying to find connections or lack of connections between players that may not have seemed significant prior to SC flipping scum and Ythill flipping town, so it's taking me a while.

Regards,
Jazz

[qwints]

Care to post some of that process? Hate to see all your work lost if you're night killed.

Non-voters need to do something besides say that they're not sure that ceph is scum. A lack of an alternative lynch-target really slows the game down.

[Cephrir]

Why isn't Cephrir dead yet?

He must be getting sick of checking a game in which he knows he's going to be lynched.

[LlamaFluff]

Jazz - You have untill the end of today am im hammering unless you can give me an

exact

time you will have notes up by thats reasonable.

[Corvuus]

Cephrir: I guess you could always self-hammer but then that is the whole sc-scum self-hammer thing and I guess I do get a feeling (like Elmo mentioned) that it could be a mislynch...

but then you could still be doing something about it! Make a read, bring out a case, heck even a "keep an eye on this guy after I am gone" type thing (which you did say for OGML) but anything else at all?

I mean, it still gives us nothing to convince us you 'aren't' scum and if i wake up tomorrow, I'm either going to feel:

"Dang, I feel dumb for mislynching Ceph-town"
or
"Dang, I feel dumb for almost not lynching Ceph-scum".

Right now, I hope it is the later but what else can I say without you being more helpful?

Cor

[Cephrir]

Are you serious? I've been as helpful as I can be. I don't know how I could help more than I have or why you keep insisting that I haven't.

but then you could still be doing something about it! Make a read, bring out a case, heck even a "keep an eye on this guy after I am gone" type thing (which you did say for OGML) but anything else at all?

I'm also voting for qwints. He hasn't done enough that a case on him would even be worth the time and Ythill already did Atlas quite profusely.

Also, I don't selfhammer as town. I don't as scum either unless there's a really good reason. Although the amount of lynched that I am right now would qualify.

Llama, I don't think there's any reason for you to threaten to end the day. We've got time, why not use it.

[Apothecary]

Woah, I've been off a little too long!
I don't think a self hammer would help anyone.
Ceph has said that we should keep an eye on OMGL and qwints, but I'd definitley like to know why he suspects qwints.

[Jazzmyn]

What I did was I went through the entire thread, noting posts that included suspicions or criticisms of others, and posts that included agreement with or possibly defences of others. Then I created a spreadsheet to plot out the information, hoping that by studying the spreadsheet, some patterns might emerge that would give further insight to SC's possible scum partners.

I have spent an inordinate amount of time on this - more hours than I care to count - but unfortunately, I don't seem to be able to pick out very many useful patterns from the results. At least not yet. Perhaps more will emerge as I add to it. Or maybe I've just wasted an inordinate amount of my time on this, and should just go back to trusting my reads and instincts instead of trying to use math, too.

On the up side, though, some observations at least: while looking at which players interacted with other players, whether negatively or positively, those who pointed their suspicions/criticisms against the highest number of other players on Day 1 are StrangerCougar and MacavityLock. SC pointed at everyone except MacavityLock, and he voted or FoS'd everyone but MacavityLock and MiteyMouse (although his vote against Atlas was a random vote at the very beginning of the game).

Both Cephrir and MacavityLock seem to have avoided SC's scumminess for the most part, although early in the game, SC voted for Cephrir briefly before unvoting him and voting for Corvuus because Corvuus voted for Primate, and FoS'd Cephrir for also voting for Primate. Now that we know that SC was scum and Primate/Ythill was town, it is obvious that SC was buddying, but with the sheer number of people he was voting and later unvoting and claiming to find them more townie, etc., it is difficult to tell which player(s) he was trying to protect and which ones he was buddying up to in order to throw as much confusion into the mix as possible.

Still, the relative paucity of input from Macavity on SC, and vice versa, and what appears to be avoidance of SC on Cephrir's part, stand out.

While MM was suspicious to some wrt her interaction with SC, I just don't see OGML as an SC scum partner given the way OGML came in upon replacement and led the late wagon against SC when there was a very viable wagon on Apothecary at the time.

I still think that OGML's case on Cephrir stands up, and I currently still think that Corvuus, OGML, LlamaFluff, Elmo, and Atlas/Qwints are town. The other thing that I noticed was that back in the beginning of the game, Cephrir made a comment about recognizing MacavityLock's name, which is not a big deal of course, but it seemed a bit odd when I later checked out Cephrir's previous games and saw that he had played a couple of games with StrangerCougar in the past as well. Maybe he just forgot, or maybe he didn't want to draw attention to SC? Also, he took an inordinately long time to come around to voting for SC, remaining focused on MM/OGML and yet was willing to hammer Apothecary without really having said much about him at the time.

I have a hard time seeing Apothecary as a scumbuddy to SC because of the way SC went after him on Day 1, but I can see that it is at least possible that SC was trying to bus him, since it is at least possible that the two most viable wagons were between two scum, as unlikely as the odds would have that.

On Atlas/Qwints, the one thing that struck me was that Atlas defended Cephrir and agreed with Cephrir on Day 1 (before Qwintz replaced in and voted Cephrir) and I think the only time SC commented on Atlas was to random vote him in his first post and to vote against Ythill for asking for more Atlas votes. But I got a town read on Atlas, and also, SC was praising Primate for his useless posts, and it was Atlas and Corvuus who were going hard after Primate for his fake posting restriction, so that tends to reinforce Atlas and Corv as town in my mind. So, I'm just throwing out this additional observation, for what it's worth.

Anyway, that is all I have for now. I do apologize for the length of time it took me to get this all together, but it was an arduous process, and in retrospect, I see that it was not the best way to try to put my data together. I need to streamline the process and/or abandon it for a better process, I think, but I didn't want to give up on it until I could see whether I could actually tease out patterns that might be useful.

Regards,
Jazz

[LlamaFluff]

She posted! Woo!

Hammer tonight once I read the post.

[OhGodMyLife]

Like it wasn't already obvious how town Jazz is or something.