Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)

[The Fonz]

There's a reason we have lynch all liars.

[PokerFace]

Yay its better they cross, and not otherwise.

anything else to discuss?

[armlx]

There's a reason we have lynch all liars.

That and lynch everyone who claims scum.

[bird1111]

Vote Count:
Santos (3): armlx, SocioPath, The Fonz

Not voting (4): Santos II, PokerFace, ZazieR, CarnCarn

With 7 alive it is 4 to lynch.

Lynch Method Vote Count:
Rope (4): CarnCarn, SocioPath, armlx, The Fonz
Gun (1): Santos II

Not voting for a lynch method (2): PokerFace, ZazieR

Right now, if a lynch goes through, the lynch will be done by Rope.

[armlx]

I say we move along.

[CarnCarn]

I just thought of a scenario where Santos could be town, but its really stupid and he gained nothing over a straight up vanilla claim if he is.

Sure, but:
1) He would have told us by now if he's gambitting (right?)
2) His previous actions suggest he's not town anyway.

Vote: Santos

[armlx]

Sure, but:
1) He would have told us by now if he's gambitting (right?)
2) His previous actions suggest he's not town anyway.

Obviously. Hence the reason I didnt unvote.

[Santos]

Vote: Santos

Good luck mafia

[CarnCarn]

Vote: Santos

Good luck mafia

[Santos]

is that 'smiley' a disconcerting one? :p

[bird1111]

You string up Santos II with a Rope. You then check his house. You soon realize that it is similar to Detspeed's, minus the room for communicating with neighbors. Which means that he must have been a Sicilia Goon.

Santos II, Sicilian Goon, lynched Day 5.

Night 5 begins, choices due Saturday@10:00 AM EST

[bird1111]

You wake up, expecting to find another of you dead. Therefore you aren't surprised when CarnCarn doesn't show up. You head to his house, expecting the worst, and indeed, he is dead. You look around, checking his claim of being a Neighbor. And sure enough, its pretty much the same as [hp] leaves'.

CarnCarn, Neighbor, killed Night 5

Day 6 begins, with 5 alive it is 3 to lynch.

[The Fonz]

Right. This seems fairly easy.

Vote: SP

The only question is if the scumgroups started out 2/2 or three/three. If it's 2/2, then gun is best... if three-three, i'd back SP being Sicilian rather than Corsican.

I suppose only one death makes me lean to a 2/2 scenario (well, that and that PF looks town to me) although that raises the question of why on earth Santos would have thought that town can't win, if they had five members alive and only two scum.

[The Fonz]

Actually,

vote: Gun

Because in the scenario where he's Sicilian, the Corsicans basically HAVE to shoot him tonight anyway.

[PokerFace]

hmm...

If 3/3 then Socio is likly Sicilian as explained earlier. Socio acted like he suspected STD/Detspeed and Santos2 because they were his scum buddies. Fonz and Zazy are corsicians by my earlier logic.

Now what logic is there that could make SP a Corsician (EJ's partner) and it 2/2. Well there was only 1 death on night 1 and no deaths on night 2. Since nobody claimed doc, a doc did not make a protect. Missing kills likly means at least 1 scum group tried to kill town and hit scum. Socio suspected STD and SantosII for pretty much crap to no reasons. So if the Corsicans (SP&EJ) did target Sicilians (STD/Det&Santos2) then that is another way Socio could have logically learned they were the 2 sicilians and gained is so called earlier suspicions. Why the hell did Santos claim scum thinking town couldn't win?

@All,

1) does this 2/2 logic seem practical and or stronger than the 3/3 logic?
2) Anybody notice any conections in play or defence/comments between SP and EJ?
3) Anybody else think it wierd [hp]leaves is only neighbor mentioned in morning scene besides carn?

[armlx]

I mean, its what we have to do regardless. I'll wait on his result just in case, but

Vote Gun

[The Fonz]

I've just had an eureka moment.

unvote, vote ZazieR

My logic is this:

1. SP is definitely scum.
2. If we have only two members of each scum faction, he is Corsican.
3. If we began with three in each faction, however, he is much more likely Sicilian.
4. If he is the last mafia, it doesn't matter whether we lynch him today or tomorrow. Therefore, lynching him with the corsican-killing method doesn't make any sense.
5. However, if he is sicilian, we have two corsicans still alive, so they should be the priority. The corsicans know SP is sicilian, and need to kill him tonight to get best chance of winning.
6. Therefore, it does not make sense to lynch SP today AT ALL.
7. PokerFace has made out that he believes, as I do, that if we were facing 3-3, then the likelihood is Zazie corsican and SP sicilian- essentially parroting me, except for switching which of him and me is accused of being scum.
8. Therefore, and given the inherent logic of the above, poker should have no difficulty in joining me in running up Zazie, using the Gun.

hmm...

If 3/3 then Socio is likly Sicilian as explained earlier. Socio acted like he suspected STD/Detspeed and Santos2 because they were his scum buddies. Fonz and Zazy are corsicians by my earlier logic.

[armlx]

I don't understand point 3.

[PokerFace]

Well that's an unexpected stroke of brilliance.

If Fonzie is scum with Zazie and we did fail to lynch a sicilian SP, then him and zazie could kill SP and win tonight assuming SP didn't kill one of them back. If Fonzie is scum with zazie this would be obv plan.

Fonzie sucessfully lynching his scum buddy now would be stupid. Him and SP would both live and the game would no matter what have a chance to continue when he already had a chance to win as corsc with Zazy. I suppose he could be using this kinda case to clear himself as scum but then he'd also be risking the chance that SP killed him tonight and that would auto-loose him and zazy the game if sp killed him. Fonz scum is efectivly crippling himself with this play that has bad chance of paying off. He can't be this dumb and scum.

He is likly town and I must have been off reading ribwich... only way to be certain of all this is to...

Vote: Zazier

Vote: Gun

Lynching Sociopath probably would make this entire process shorter but this way we can effectivly eliminate scum in the next 2 days while preparing for the possibility 3/3 exist with zaziercorscscum

[PokerFace]

well actually obv plan for fonz corscscum with zazy would be to not come up with this plan and somehow hang socio but either way this still gets only 3/3 I see as possibly existing

[The Fonz]

I don't understand point 3.

I have previously noted how I believe SP to be strongly tied to Det/StD.

The worst case scenario here from my perspective is if somehow the corsicans are actually PF and SP, and even that's no worse than trying to lynch SP and failing.

armlx, my question for you is this: how likely do you believe it is that the Corsicans are PF and myself?

[PokerFace]

The worst case scenario here from my perspective is if somehow the corsicans are actually PF and SP, and even that's no worse than trying to lynch SP and failing.

One of us being corsician paired with SP is mathmatically the same as failing to lynch SP. Because that would that mean Zazier is the last siclian and we would be failing to lynch her. This would lead to SP and his real partner taking a huge risk because Zazy scum could kill one of them tonight. Which isn't the ideal when you consider SP and his partner would be better off hanging Zazy and winning the game today.

I have agreed with fonz's assessment of point 3 because of how SP suspected 2 already dead sicilians with practically no good logic. I thought it more likly he was their buddies but i guess its equally as likly he just failed to kill them on nights 1 and 2 when he was trying to kill town instead.

Still got no clue why santos2 was dumb enough to claim scum.

[The Fonz]

His post immediately after the scum claim strongly suggests three person mafia groups. He was suggesting that the best the town can do is get to 1-1-1 if the scum kill even one more town player. At the time, there were seven alive. If it were 5-1-1 at that point, that's just obviously untrue. If three-two-two, then even with a scum lynch it goes thee-two-one overnight. Assume one crosskill and one dead town, that puts you at 2-1-1 in the morning: town can't afford to lynch. (Or at 2-2-0 if the crosskill goes the other way, and scum have won already).

In 2-1-2, however, town's incentive is to lynch a Corsican. So, yeah. We need either SP's vote (assuming he shows up at all) or armlx's to get this plan through.

[PokerFace]

Ok it makes sence he would make that claim if it is 3/3. You are correct about that. From my/that point of view that would make me and armlx the only townies. But right now the way you are acting does not make sence with the vision I percieved you would have if you were scum with Zazy. Part or all of my read could be wrong and if you are town also, then 2/2 would be a reality and Santos2's claim would make about as much sence as giving George W. Bush a third term in office.

I'm still down with lynching Zazy like this, that is a good plan to account for 3/3 existing but if Zazy does turn up town then that leads me to conclude it is 2/2 SP is last scum. And Santos2 was only making that claim because he hoped he could trick us into making another failed lynch that he somehow thought could be turned into victory for his side. I either did some math wrong calculating what a mislynch of Santos2 would have meant yesterday in 2/2 or Santos took a risk he did not fully understand.

or all this is mute and it is 3/3 and his claim made sence

[armlx]

armlx, my question for you is this: how likely do you believe it is that the Corsicans are PF and myself?

After those last couple posts, I'm thinking it is possible.

Listen, 2-1-2 town still can win if we choose alignment wrong on SP. SP's best option is to shoot other scum group, other scum group shoots SP obv, we end up in 2-1. So, I would rather play today as if its 2-2 and maximize my chances of winning in the set up where I have the highest chance of winning.