Mini 701 - That's a Wrap! (Game Over)

[SpyreX]

Care to explain why ort is dead fix?

[TDC]

Mind explaining why ortolan is dead, mrfixij?

[SpyreX]

Go go doublepostu

[SpyreX]

On to the major matters:

1.)Where did that second kill come from?
2.)Is today LYLO?

Throwing this out here, tell me if I miss specifics.

1.) 3 scum group, with the ability to extra kill one night.
--- Chances: Low.
--- Reason: If that were the case, lucky scum could have D2 LYLO (lynch town, doublekill went through puts its at 7 D2).
--- What this would mean: Fix probably is telling the truth (only real balance would be having two protective roles).

2.) 2 scum group, additional SK.
--- Chances: Middlin
--- Reason: Why no SK kill N1? Assuming SK's HAVE to kill, that means either the scum or the SK were stopped.
--- What this would mean: Fix would have HAD to stopped a NK night 1 (and be town) (which would mean Myk was the mafia killer that night). However, considering Myk was busted - why have him perform the kill? In addition, this would mean that the SK tried to kill Myk.

3.) 2 scum group, town vig shot.
--- Chances: Middlin (Personally I think a little higher than SK, but).
--- Reason: Explains the no N1 kill a bit better (they probably shot at Myk who was protected by Fix)
--- What this would mean: Fix, again, would be town. We'd have a vig. However, if this is the case, I think we win today.

Problems:

All three of the obvious scenarios explaining the n1 nk assume fix is town. I can't see the scenario where fix is scum (mafia RB that blocked either town vig or sk?)

If thats the case, either we get no RB flavor OR its an sk and not a vig - the vig sure as hell should have came out and claimed rb'd yesterday.

I need fix to answer before MORE AMAZING things happen today.

[TDC]

Uh, a vig might not have tried to shoot N1, so in that case, mrfixij could still be scum.

[SpyreX]

Thats true. I guess the only reason I didn't think of it was that with a confirmed scum a vig SHOULD have shot night 1 but.

[TDC]

Yeah, mrfixij, if town SHOULD have protected the confirmed mason, too..

[TDC]

Furthermore, another thing is wrong with your SK scenario.
If mrfixij is town and prevented myk from killing someone, then a) the SK killed orangepenguin and didn't try to kill myk or b) the SK tried to kill myk and myk's partner killed op.
a) would make sense in so far as it would explain why it was orangepenguin who died and not ortolan.. the SK would probably have thought the mafia would kill ortolan, so the next best target was going to be op?

[TDC]

EBWOP: Obviously in b) mrfixij would've protected myk rather than prevented him from killing.

[SpyreX]

You're right on both counts.

If fix was town he should have protected a mason. However, even if he didn't your scenario does make sense.

I think we need to assume two non-town kills tonight (and today is NOT lylo).

The others need to speak up.

[TDC]

and today is NOT lylo

It sure is lylo if there is a SK.
Lynch a townie and night starts with two town, one mafia, SK. The only chance for town to win then is a) cross kill b) one kill failing + one of the scum killing the other c) both kills failing. One townie dying that night and the game is over (well, there might be a day with both scum and one townie, but that just let's the townie choose who shall kill them..).

[SpyreX]

God in heaven.

You're right. So we have to lynch either the remaining scum OR the sk (I think we be screwed if there is two scum left).

[SpyreX]

EBWOP: Two scum AND a SK

[TDC]

Well, I can not see how this game could've started with just 6 townies..

[don_johnson]

a fixijj post is definitely in order.

[SpyreX]

Neither can I - but, who knows.

The razor seems to be that fix is lying and scum - however, if that were true, why in the hell would you kill ort?

Unless fix killed ecto and the sk took a stab at ort.

God, I dont know.

[mrfixij]

I was roleblocked last night. Unfortunately. I couldn't save Ort due to that. TDC's sudden jump in activity and immediate jump to conclusions regarding setup and night actions is suspicious to me. I think this is lylo, or at the very least, lynch wrong and lose. Therefore, I'm witholding my vote, but I think TDC has some extra information that the rest of us could use, judging by his jump in activity.

[SpyreX]

Well, that settles it.

I expect fullclaims from everyone today, but fix is lying or this game doesn't make sense.

I am the cop.

Vote: Mykonian

T

hats some awesome right there. I'll be doing some research on that sweet wagon before this day is though. I can't decide if the other scum would have hopped on that wagon or avoided it entirely (however, the latter option only leaves me, ecto and TDC - overall I dont have issues with them in comparison to the others). I'll have to look (the fact that SL and DJ were both on it makes me think they hopped, but with both our damn masons on it it would have been a bit too obvious).

D

on't think that ort is going to make it through this night based on last. Defintiely get your thoughts out.

C

an't say I'm not surprised at the fact they hit a mason. However, that does make me wonder about fix some - it could me NK WIFOM, but why leave a softclaim alive when you kill the doctor?

I know

we've got plenty of time for some discussion, but there is no way Myko is not the lynch for the day. So, lets not get too distracted this time.

TDC I know = TDC innocent.

Now, why does that mean Fix is most likely lying?

Well, last night I investigated Echo, but I didn't get a result. I made sure that it wasn't because of the fact Echo died. So, I was roleblocked or SOMETHING last night.

So, unless the scum have two RB's, fix is lying.

The only reason I'm not voting is I want fullclaims from everyone.

[don_johnson]

do you really think a full claim to be appropriate?

So, unless the scum have two RB's, fix is lying.

most of my assumptions have been wrong this game, but two mafia roleblockers

and

an extra night kill doesn't make sense at all. does it?

[SpyreX]

Considering I'm most likely dead tonight, yes.

No, it shouldn't, hence I think he's lying.

[don_johnson]

Considering I'm most likely dead tonight, yes.

No, it shouldn't, hence I think he's lying.

i have turned this over in my head for the last half hour and all i can say is "holy fucking quandary!"

we need to operate on the distinct possibility that you may be lying as well. TDC needs to post. SL needs to post.

fix: what do you think of spyrex's claim? how does it fit the scenario that you are who you say you are?

[SpyreX]

Of course I could be lying - but honestly, I am surprised I didn't get NK'd because I was being too obvious about knowing about the balance of PR's (as I was one).

And, because it seems a little odd I think it warrants mentioning:

As far as I can tell from my PM, there is no chance TDC is the SK. It was very specific (I am not just a cop, I am a Sane Cop and my investigations give correct alignments).

So, unless there's two scum RB's (which seems silly) Fix IS lying and is the lynch.

However, we need all the information asap.

[SpyreX]

EBWOP: Knowing meaning my theories HAD to account for me being a PR (and the fact that I've always been confident in an investigative role).

[mrfixij]

You've been a pretty obvious cop from D1 spyre, in your demeanor at least. What surprises me is that you weren't targetted N1. As far as the two roleblocks go, I have no clue what to even begin to think. I think you're lying spyre, personally.

[mrfixij]

lying about being roleblocked, that is. I've seen a similar gambit run on AIM mafia, but I can't see why it would be run. Like I said, it's very confusing to me right now.