Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[Huntress]

Vote Count

- no change


OhGodMyLife 1 - (Cephrir)
Cephrir 4 - (OhGodMyLife, Qwints, Jazzmyn, Corvuus)
Apothecary 1 - (MacavityLock)

Not voting 3 - (Apothecary, Elmo, LLamaFluff)

With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

[OhGodMyLife]

Now is a good time for ceph to be lynched.

[Cephrir]

When is a better time to be motivated, Ceph?

When I'm not about to be lynched no matter what I say?

[LlamaFluff]

Now is a good time for ceph to be lynched.

I agree but I still would like qwints to elaborate a bit on his vote, maybe give some thoughts on something apart from a one liner on Ceph. I keep trying to figure something out and there is just a piece missing.

[Elmo]

Ceph, being :nothelpful: because you'll be lynched anyway is a self-fulfilling prophesy. It can't possibly hurt you if you're town.

I'm not convinced you're scum, for the record, but I have no strong reason to believe you're town, and I've been bitten by defending scum I'm not sure about before. And everyone else is at least trying to seem helpful and townish; who do you propose we lynch instead of you?

Looking at the SC wagon, I have this disquieting feeling that he was nonetheless bussed by at least one buddy. I think perhaps the mafioso in question felt that it would be far too obvious in later days if they didn't go with it. Hmm.

LF, why do you think Macavity's scum(my)? What's your opinion of Atlas - not the role i.e. Qwints, the posts made by the player Atlas previously? Also.. why llama fluff?
Jazz, what specific reasons for lynching Cephrir do you agree with? 759 seems pretty weak, especially when this wagon's gone awfully fast. If Ceph flipped town, do you think there are scum on the wagon? If I told you for certain there were, who would you suspect?

I would like to second LlamaFluff's "just a piece missing" feeling. Hmm.

[Elmo]

p.s. My suspicions have changed a fair bit since the List, so don't hold me to that. Just saying.

[LlamaFluff]

LF, why do you think Macavity's scum(my)? What's your opinion of Atlas - not the role i.e. Qwints, the posts made by the player Atlas previously? Also.. why llama fluff?

ML comes off as scummy mostly due to two things, firstly the way he played the SC wagon during D1. I dont think was ever actually a part of the wagon vote wise, but there were comments (like his 33) that make me think otherwise. When the SC wagon came to a head near the end of the day, he stayed off it and continued to push the Apoc wagon which was the only other viable one. It seems like he made his mark on the SC wagon but chose not to cash in it.

Second would be the early push for Apoc today. I really dont see Apoc flipping scum after the strength that SC pushed for that lynch when there was a town wagon available in Ythill, and the MM wagon which both seemed to hold water. Also most of the posts from ML yesterday seemed to suggest a SC-MM pairing more then anything else, so trading MM for Apoc today when SC was proven scum looks wierd.

Rest is just about process of elimination. I think OGML and Apoc are def town. Jazz, qwints and you are pretty close based on actions and just this gut read I have from Jazz. Corv has gone back and forth for me, D1 he looked really town, D2 I got a few warning flags up. Makes me want to look into closer but I really havent had the time to put him under the magnifine glass. Basically just leaves Ceph and if that doesnt end the game, ML. By the way if Ceph is last scum I am going to be pissed I waited for qwints.

I am not completely sure of what you mean about thoughts on Atlas. I had a town read off her during D1. Her post 10 I thought was a good one for early suspicions. The annoyance and questions about Primate being a dick seem genuine as well, trying to figure out exactly what it was if it existed (even though I guess scum can be inquisitive about a restriction). Maybe its due to quite a few similar thought process and suspects, maybe its due to Ythill thinking Atlas was scum. I just got a really strong gut read on her day one, and I dont usually get too many town gut reads. Not even sure if this is what you asked though, I think it is though.

Also I dont really remember why llamafluff. I have been using that name on various things for about four or five years.

[MacavityLock]

Refutations:

ML comes off as scummy mostly due to two things, firstly the way he played the SC wagon during D1. I dont think was ever actually a part of the wagon vote wise, but there were comments (like his 33) that make me think otherwise. When the SC wagon came to a head near the end of the day, he stayed off it and continued to push the Apoc wagon which was the only other viable one. It seems like he made his mark on the SC wagon but chose not to cash in it.

You're correct that I was never on the SC wagon vote-wise. Early in the day, I had some suspicions, but he was never at the top of my list. Over the course of page 14, my suspicions spiked due to his voting and subsequent unvoting of Ythill. I also did not like 337 at all. He was then at L-1, so being on his wagon with a vote would have meant a hammer, which I was not willing to do at that point. He then claimed doc, and I backed off like everybody else did.

As for the late SC wagon, it occurred over the course of 1 RL day when I was not on-site due to finals. Seriously, feel free to check across every game I was in. You'll find no posts because I wasn't around. Sadly, I can't give any more proof than that.

Second would be the early push for Apoc today. I really dont see Apoc flipping scum after the strength that SC pushed for that lynch when there was a town wagon available in Ythill, and the MM wagon which both seemed to hold water. Also most of the posts from ML yesterday seemed to suggest a SC-MM pairing more then anything else, so trading MM for Apoc today when SC was proven scum looks wierd.

My Apoth suspicions, which were stronger than my MM suspicions, from day 1 remain. There was no trading of MM to Apoth involved. As I detailed in my long post, I don't see why SC-scum prevents Apoth from being his buddy, and I think that might be a dangerous assumption to make.

[Cephrir]

Unvote

I guess. But please don't give OGML a free pass to cruise through the game.

[qwints]

Cephrir

1) Voted w/o reason to get a reaction
2) Pulled an about face on Primate
3) Repeatedly says he has already given reasons w/o elaboration


See his post that before the SC claim

That SC wagon looks better every minute. Actually,

Vote: SC

. His most recent few posts have really sealed it for me, and now he's backing off Ythill which seems to me like a total cop-out to the accusation of his rapidly changing suspicions (which, incidentally, is not a bad tell IMO). Note that this is a L-1 vote.

He's finally willing to do some work when it will succeed in confirming him town

See also his post asking permission to hammer Apoth:

I went away this weekend and nothing happened. Yay, I guess.

Is that L-1? I'm willing to hammer, I'm done with both Apoth and this day.

Maybe a null tell, but it strikes me as a little scummy to not give reasons for an Apoth lynch.

His refusal to defend and unvote of OGML are further evidence for me.

[Elmo]

One thing to bear in mind is that considering SC was bussed (and I am just going to assume this, because I find it bemusing if he wasn't) then the scum generally have a ready-made plan to push the mislynch of anyone who was less enthusiastic than them. That doesn't mean I suspect OGML for pushing the wagon (town is also going to be looking for links to dead scum) but I feel scum would be flocking to this if Ceph was town. Hence, reasons. If we do lynch CephScum then we're in a very strong position anyway, so let's think about getting information to use on later days if he's town. I feel especially Jazz and qwints have joined this wagon with no-one really scrutinising their reasons.

I'm also pretty sure I have far too many town reads at this point. Part of the problem is that Cephrir is top of my list by virtue of being "least townish" rather than anything really suspicious. So while I'm queasy about this wagon, I don't have a better alternative, and honestly the :nothelpful: makes me struggle to care that deeply. But I still have the "this smells of mislynch" feeling.

[Jazzmyn]

Sorry, all. This weekend has been far busier than I expected so I haven't been able to re-read, and I have to go out to a family birthday dinner tonight. But I will re-read and catch up no later than tomorrow.

Regards,
Jazz

[Cephrir]

Cephrir

1) Voted w/o reason to get a reaction

And this is scummy how?

2) Pulled an about face on Primate

I don't recall ever thinking he was scum. Obnoxious but never lynchworthy.

3) Repeatedly says he has already given reasons w/o elaboration

so sick of this.

See his post that before the SC claim

That SC wagon looks better every minute. Actually,

Vote: SC

. His most recent few posts have really sealed it for me, and now he's backing off Ythill which seems to me like a total cop-out to the accusation of his rapidly changing suspicions (which, incidentally, is not a bad tell IMO). Note that this is a L-1 vote.

He's finally willing to do some work when it will succeed in confirming him town

How on earth would that confirm me town?

See also his post asking permission to hammer Apoth:

I went away this weekend and nothing happened. Yay, I guess.

Is that L-1? I'm willing to hammer, I'm done with both Apoth and this day.

Maybe a null tell, but it strikes me as a little scummy to not give reasons for an Apoth lynch.

I believe I had previously. Making sure it's OK to hammer is not a tell, I always do it.

His refusal to defend and unvote of OGML are further evidence for me.

I'm trying to defend, at least a little. But I think it's pretty damn obvious I'm going to be lynched today.

So basically that's just another load of "Ceph is scum so here's what he's been doing and his motives" as opposed to "here's why Ceph is scum".

I'm also pretty sure I have far too many town reads at this point.

Exactly... Hence my difficulty coming up with any suspects.

[qwints]

I don't recall ever thinking [Primate] was scum. Obnoxious but never lynchworthy.

Let's look at the record.

@Primate voters: even if Primate is faking a PR, I don't think it's scummy. Antitown, perhaps, but not scummy. And I'm far from positive that he's making it up anyway.

followed by

Unvote, Vote: Primate

because stop.

AND

If you're giving up, I will as well. I was hoping if we got enough votes on Primate he would give it up, but if the wagon's greatest supporter is going to jump ship it'll never work.

Unvote

.

You were putting pressure on Primate and suddenly backed off.

[Cephrir]

Yeah, pressure so he'd drop the PR.

[Elmo]

qwints, you gave three reasons why you suspected Cephrir. He argued against three of them, and you responded to one. Your point was that he backed off Primate, yet in the post you just quoted, he clearly gives a reason for unvoting. Your reasons seem alarmingly weak to me.

1) Voted w/o reason to get a reaction
2) Pulled an about face on Primate
3) Repeatedly says he has already given reasons w/o elaboration

I want you to explain why the specific instance of him voting without a reason is scummy.
I want to to show what specifically about #2 is scummy.
I want you to show examples of #3.

His refusal to defend and unvote of OGML are further evidence for me.

If I remember correctly, part of the stated case against him was his OGML vote. Why is his unvoting OGML scummy?

[Corvuus]

ugh.

unvote

while I re-read.

I'd prefer a lynch over a no lynch/deadline but I would like to hear more from qwints and while (as I said before) I can see Ceph-scum, I was 50-50 on it but now i'm less than 50% on board for ceph-scum so I think discussion/re-reading is worth it.

More discussion from Ceph would be nice as well too.

Corvuus

[OhGodMyLife]

My confidence in Corvuus being town just plummeted drastically.

[Corvuus]

really?

Your post makes me glad I unvoted since your statement doesn't make sense at all.

You say Ceph is scum and Macavitylock is scum (buddies or groups, whatever) and I can't imagine you thinking there are 4 scum in this game so you can't *really* think I am scum if they are. And unless my unvoting to re-read, hear qwints and get clearer in regards to the game is a huge scum-tell to you over everything else, I don't see how you would say I am not town 'now' and such.

So... guess what.

"My confidence in OGML being town just plummeted drastically."

If anything, you should be trying to discuss and convince me since I am 'not' clear and not try this 'half-baked' bully type of 'you doing that isn't very town!!!'.

I guess I am a stubborn, paranoid, extremist. Either way, Ceph isn't getting my vote until I re-read, hear from Qwints and such. If you really want him lynched so badly, you still have Apoth, Elmo and such to work on.

Corvuus

[qwints]

Elmo - on the first two points - that sort of behaviour demonstrates a hidden agenda behind his play. He was playing in a way designed to set up tension in the town instead of moving the game ahead.

On the third point see this post:

If you've read this thread then you saw a case against MM.

[Corvuus]

Hopefully everyone else checks in now after the server/site move.

I didn't finish re-reading yet.

Corv

[MacavityLock]

My apologies, but I will be very LA from pretty much now until the 20th, and if you need to replace me so be it. I will be around to post tomorrow (Thurs), but after that, I can't guarantee much. I'd like to stick around though, if at all possible.

Noted.

[Elmo]

/checks in

[Apothecary]

/Checks in.

[LlamaFluff]

Getting close to confident enough to put my vote on ceph. Still would like to hear what Jazz got from her reread to hopefully further the read I have going on her there.