Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)

[The Fonz]

True. But the neighbour-balance thing is an obvious asset to town. Here we get into OGM in terms of whether or not Bird anticipated this.

[armlx]

Also, with 3/3 mafia, its possible for town to have 0 mislynches and lose.

We should really be discussing mass claim order though.

[The Fonz]

And with 2/2, it's not that unlikely you can win without ever lynching correctly, unless there's some kind of additional anti-crosskill mechanic.

[armlx]

And with 2/2, it's not that unlikely you can win without ever lynching correctly, unless there's some kind of additional anti-crosskill mechanic.

There is an anti-cross kill mechanic in this game though.

[The Fonz]

Well, it's an anti-nightkill in general mechanic. Though *deleted since i've just realised how utterly stupid it is to tell the scum what to do at night.*

[CarnCarn]

If we mass claim, I prefer in order of scumminess. I would select Santos to claim first, then he would select someone else to claim next, then that person claims and picks another person to claim, etc.

Unless someone wants to claim first.

[The Fonz]

Popcorning seems fine by me.

Alternatively, i could go now.

Which do you prize more- getting it done soon, or getting the order you want?

[CarnCarn]

Which do you prize more- getting it done soon, or getting the order you want?

The order, and having everyone agree to massclaim first (ZazieR, SocioPath, and Santos haven't said anything yet about this). We're not under any time restrictions, I believe.

[Tarhalindur]

I have no intention of handing out deadlines before bird1111 gets back. I will prod ZazieR, SocioPath, and Santos if you ask... - Tar

The Fifth Tarhalindur Vote Count (aka the "This Is A Vote Count" Vote Count)

armlx (0)
Santos II (rep. Sineish) (0)
SocioPath (0)
ribwich (rep. christiano drago) (0)
Battle Mage (0)
ZazieR (0)
CarnCarn (0)

Not Voting (7) - armlx, Santos II, SocioPath, ribwich, Battle Mage, ZazieR, CarnCarn

Votes Required to Lynch:

4

Weapon Count

Gun (0)
Rope (0)

No Preference (7) - armlx, Santos II, SocioPath, ribwich, Battle Mage, ZazieR, CarnCarn[/quote]

[armlx]

Well, it's an anti-nightkill in general mechanic. Though *deleted since i've just realised how utterly stupid it is to tell the scum what to do at night.*

Well, its obvious at least in the early stages of the game that the highest value of a kill comes from choosing townie, not opposing scum group. Therefore, for the early portion of the game, cross kills are very unlikely.

[ZazieR]

I prefer to wait with a massclaim. This game started with 16 players. Most of the time, a 16-player game has 4 scum. That means that were not at lylo yet. I personally am in favor to do a massclaim when were at lylo.

But you know what I find funny? This:

I say the 2 confirmeds (CC and myself) decide any mass claim order

Combine that with an armlx quote from a different game:

To be honest, if Jebus had been a Neighbor not a Mason, its extremely likely I would have voted crywolf just based on role name.

Together, it doesn't give me a good feeling about armlx.

Yes, you and CC are most likely Neighbours. However, your allignment isn't confirmed. Armlx, could you explain to me why you're not going for a CC lynch?

Regarding post 1047:
2 scum teams of 2 make sense. Each team has a certain method to be killed with. This decreases the chances of each lynch that it's a scum lynch. The scum also has to decide at night what their target is, scum or town. If they guess wrong, their will be a NK less. But this also gives scum information. So I think that the set-up would be balanced with 2 scum teams of 2.
Also, armlx saw someone as well as likely scum member with STD. He was also wrong about that. So it's strange that you use this as argument for 2 scumteams of 3 players.

I agree with post 1048, but I first want to hear what Santos has to say about the hammer of Detspeed.

But it seems that most players prefer a massclaim now. If we're going to do one, I want Santos to go first and that we popcorn claim from that moment onwards.

Mod, could SocioPath be prodded? His last post was on the 12th of December

[The Fonz]

I prefer to wait with a massclaim. This game started with 16 players. Most of the time, a 16-player game has 4 scum. That means that were not at lylo yet. I personally am in favor to do a massclaim when were at lylo.

How many scum a normal game with one scumgroup has is really irrelevant. With two groups, 3-3 rather than 2-2 would be balanced. However, there are significant scum-favouring mechanics in play here.
If we started with scumgroups of three, the town is already in the minority.

It comes down to the following: the symmetry argument makes 2-man scumgroups particularly weak. You're effectively playing, in the best case for scum, a 10-1-1 if the town has to lynch all the neighbours to get all the scum neighbours. Do we believe bird anticipated this, or not?

Yes, you and CC are most likely Neighbours. However, your allignment isn't confirmed. Armlx, could you explain to me why you're not going for a CC lynch?

Have you, like, not read any of armlx's posts? It's basically certain that both scumgroups have the same number of neighbours in them. Therefore, CC being scum would imply armlx being scum: so it's obvious why armlx isn't pushing that.

Regarding post 1047:
2 scum teams of 2 make sense. Each team has a certain method to be killed with. This decreases the chances of each lynch that it's a scum lynch. The scum also has to decide at night what their target is, scum or town. If they guess wrong, their will be a NK less. But this also gives scum information. So I think that the set-up would be balanced with 2 scum teams of 2.

See the above argument about the neighbours.

Also, armlx saw someone as well as likely scum member with STD. He was also wrong about that. So it's strange that you use this as argument for 2 scumteams of 3 players.

This doesn't make any sense. Please clarify.

[ZazieR]

I have no idea what you're saying in the first two paragraphs. I was just saying that I believe that there are 2 scum teams of two. If there would have been 2 scum temas of 3, we would have a disadvantage, not? I saw somewhere that you thought that there were 2 scum teams of 3. I just wanted to give my opinion why I would say that that's probably not the case.

Also, as you could have seen in my question, it was aimed at Armlx. Perhaps that means that I want an answer from Armlx. If you still would like to respond, please do so afterwards.

The clarification:

Scumgroups of two in a sixteen-player seem unlikely, though not quite impossible given scum perks here- and two different players strike me as strongly tied to STD/Det.

If I read this quote correctly, you're saying that two players seem strongly connected to STD/Detspeed. This seems an argument why you think that there are 2 scum teams of 3 players. However, Armlx thought that ZTR was connected with STD. In the end, it appeared that Armlx was wrong with his conclusion about ZTR. As you have read the game, I find it strange that you would use this as an argument of 2 scumteams of 3 as it went wrong during the game already.

[armlx]

Together, it doesn't give me a good feeling about armlx.

Nice use of a quote out of context.... Completely different scenarios. One was end game where a player was a mason and the other player not, so I voted the non-mason to find out they were an unconfirmed scum mason. This is where we have had 2 neighbors flip scum, and due to symmetry issues either both myself and CC would have to be scum or neither of us are. Considering I know my alignment, I'm fairly sure I know CC is town, just like I knew HP was town assuming STD was scum.

Clearly someone didn't read/comprehend most of D1 here.

The 2 groups of 3 theory HASN'T gone wrong yet, I'm just assuming it as otherwise the game is utterly out of the town's hands regardless, so we should play for our outs.

[Tarhalindur]

Prodding SocioPath with extreme prejudice. - Tar

The Sixth Tarhalindur Vote Count (aka the "Poking With A Sharp Stick" Vote Count)

armlx (0)
Santos II (rep. Sineish) (0)
SocioPath (0)
ribwich (rep. christiano drago) (0)
Battle Mage (0)
ZazieR (0)
CarnCarn (0)

Not Voting (7) - armlx, Santos II, SocioPath, ribwich, Battle Mage, ZazieR, CarnCarn

Votes Required to Lynch:

4

Weapon Count

Gun (0)
Rope (0)

No Preference (7) - armlx, Santos II, SocioPath, ribwich, Battle Mage, ZazieR, CarnCarn

[ZazieR]

Armlx, that explains this day.
However, I rather want you to explain day 1.
In post 106 you say the following:

Meh, I've screwed it up enough its at least worth this.

CC and myself can night talk. Not masons, as neither of us has received confirmation of the other's alignment. The later is what CC is talking about, as he is assuming this lack of confirmation is more or less a confirmation of guilty. However, I have NEVER seen that or similar things happen without symmetry in a 2 scum group game, and even in a 1 scum group game I have only seen it happen 1 time out of many, the single exception being a game the mod was fucking with the players as much as possible (Sin City Mafia on MTGS). I've seen it and can expect it with 3 player groups (President Mafia comes to mind), but in a 2 player group I doubt it.

So, basically I'm pretty sure CC is town now that I've stopped being an idiot.

As for other, non-night talk abilities, I have no comment. CC or myself may or may not have those.

At this moment, your neighbour claim is the only one known. However, later that day, Santos I claims neighbour. On the 21st of Oct. oEJo, Santos I's neighbour partner, claims neighbour as well. His comment was the following:

Hi everyone. I apologise for being inactive, I was away in sydney and got bogged down with homework. I will be more active from now on, as the amount of homework has subsided.

Just a short post for now; I'm Santos' unconfirmed Mason (Neighbour)
He's scum, based on symmetry stuff.

Your reaction was this:

He's scum, based on symmetry stuff.

This. More lynch plz.

However, you, if you're town, shouldn't have known oEJo's allignment. If you actually believed this symmetry stuff, why would you go after Santos I, instead of CC as you know your allignment?
I'll wait for your answer.

[PokerFace]

Still reading through. Should be done soon since holidays be over.

If everybody wants to massclaim I'm down with it too.

Claiming in order of scuminess is good. Popcorn may also work fine.

Should be done reading by later today.

[Santos]

What is 'popcorn'? Is that like in elementary school when we 'popcorn' (choose) player x?

[CarnCarn]

yeah:

If we mass claim, I prefer in order of scumminess. I would select Santos to claim first, then he would select someone else to claim next, then that person claims and picks another person to claim, etc.

This is popcorn. We could also all agree to an order beforehand. I don't think it will make a huge difference, if any at all, really.

[The Fonz]

The clarification:

Scumgroups of two in a sixteen-player seem unlikely, though not quite impossible given scum perks here- and two different players strike me as strongly tied to STD/Det.

If I read this quote correctly, you're saying that two players seem strongly connected to STD/Detspeed. This seems an argument why you think that there are 2 scum teams of 3 players. However, Armlx thought that ZTR was connected with STD. In the end, it appeared that Armlx was wrong with his conclusion about ZTR. As you have read the game, I find it strange that you would use this as an argument of 2 scumteams of 3 as it went wrong during the game already.

So, I get this correctly, you believe that because armlx read another player wrong, (a read I didn't share) then that must mean my reads are wrong.



I mean, sure, it's possible i'm wrong. But I don't see how that armlx thing has any logical connection to your argument at all.

[armlx]

However, you, if you're town, shouldn't have known oEJo's allignment. If you actually believed this symmetry stuff, why would you go after Santos I, instead of CC as you know your allignment?

T-T, S1-S2 was a possible pairing as well.

This is honestly rediculously weak. Do you think both myself and CC are scum? If so, with who? If only me, how can you justify that balance wise in the set up?

[Santos]

I am a

Mafia Goon

, but I am not telling you which one

I choose

CarnCarn

to claim next.

[armlx]

I am a

Mafia Goon

, but I am not telling you which one

I choose

CarnCarn

to claim next.

EPIC.

(fail)

[Santos]

I think the Mafia will win this game

[CarnCarn]

I am a

Mafia Goon

, but I am not telling you which one

I choose

CarnCarn

to claim next.

um, lol. Again, I'm a Neighbor (protown, obv). Are we actually going through with massclaim, now? I dunno if Santos was claiming seriously. If we're all agreed to claim, and if Santos was serious, then I'll pick someone to go next.