Open 101 - Two of Four - Game over before 712

[The Central Scrutinizer]

EBWOP: Should have read "vote one" instead of "post one." OFC I'm not even sure that's true, looking back... but I was on it early in the wagon regardless.

[veerus]

Axle, with me being one of the PR's, there can't be a cop AND a miller.

Ripley: those two are the only ones that raised alarm bells for me day 1. Also, as I explained before, it would not benefit scum to forgo his kill last night. If scum is one of those two people, there's a 50% chance of killing me. If scum is not one of those two, there's 100% chance of killing me. No killing in such a small game is more beneficial to the town, especially with a roleblocker on the loose. Odds of me hitting the last scum are relatively high, which would eventually win the game for town.

Also, confirming my suspicions about CC, in his very first post today, he exhibited another one of Tar's standard tells.

[ZazieR]

Ripley, do you remember this post:

Wait, tcs was

against

the mass claim, so why are you voting him?

This also gives me the impression that it is either CC (as he voted TCS) or that it's TCS as partner. But of those two, I'd actually say that it's TCS over CC.
So I'll

Vote The Central Scrutinizer

I'm also not happy with Veerus at the end. It seems very likely that he's indeed the roleblocker. However, my opinion is that a power role shouldn't announce their target. As the scum could see from your post who you would roleblock, they could decide not to kill to blame the one you would target.

Also, Axle. If you next time know that you would be absent during the deadline, could you before you leave state your suspicions. We didn't know your thoughts at all. We still don't know so could you say something about your suspicions?

I'm still thinking if we should do a massclaim or not. I hope I can state my opinions about that in my next post.

[axle135]

I think we should massclaim. For reasons which have been stated. Also, I'm saying have a miller claim, a cop claim, then a doctor claim in that order. It should be a fairly obvious reason. Again, it was said earlier.

Sorry Zazie, it's just that I'm not used to MS yet. Not really. After finishing this game and maybe another, I should be up to speed. e.g. I don't know how much of a scumtell bandwagoning is and how popular various tells are (meaning accidently used by non-scum).

[veerus]

So wait, Zazier.. let me get this straight.. You now BELIEVE that I'm the roleblocker AND you think that TCS is a possible scum and yet you DON'T believe my roleblock and contingency plan? That's absolutely ridiculous. If CC is town, then I block TCS tomorrow and we win. This isn't rocket science.

Also, I'm VERY MUCH against a massclaim at this point. A miller wouldn't gain us anything. A cop will only out himself when he's found the other scum (on the off-chance that it isn't TCS/CC) and there's no reason to do so sooner. And a doctor is protecting me every night (or he should). Why out the roles that will win the game for us?

[Ripley]

Also, I'm VERY MUCH against a massclaim at this point. A miller wouldn't gain us anything. A cop will only out himself when he's found the other scum (on the off-chance that it isn't TCS/CC) and there's no reason to do so sooner. And a doctor is protecting me every night (or he should). Why out the roles that will win the game for us?

If a doctor was protecting you then your roleblock may have been irrelevant. I was actually rather surprised CC didn't raise this possibility, since he's (obviously) claiming he didn't try to kill anybody. Wouldn't it look to him, if innocent, that a doc protect was a possible reason for the no kill? Surely it's at least as likely as a deliberate no-kill by scum?

Anyway, veerus, what are you so worried about? You are almost certain the scum is either CC or TCS, so if we lynch CC today and you block TCS tonight, the power roles would be quite safe. I'm still in favor of claiming, though not the way axle said. Just draw up an order, with most suspicious claiming first, and have people claim their role in that order. I think we'd go best from here with all information in the open.

[veerus]

I'm worried that if, on the off-chance I'm wrong, the other power role will go a long way toward helping the town win in lylo.

Why is there such a movement for a massclaim anyway? All it does is outs the other PR.. What are you trying to accomplish and what information do you think would be helpful at this point?

...but if everyone agrees on a massclaim, I suggest we do it popcorn style (first person to claim names the next, etc).. i.e. I should go first since I already claimed.

[Ripley]

Why is there such a movement for a massclaim anyway? All it does is outs the other PR.. What are you trying to accomplish and what information do you think would be helpful at this point?

I'm not going to start getting into one of those deep micro-analyses that simply spells out to the scum their best option if they hadn't worked it out already, and I really suggest nobody else does either.

However, it is safe to say that if we have a cop present the cop is known, since they haven't claimed, to have an innocent result on a living player. If we don't lynch scum and the cop dies tonight, we'd really regret losing that result. I guess we could take precautions by having everyone say "If I'm the cop and I die, X is innocent". But I still prefer to roleclaim.

...but if everyone agrees on a massclaim, I suggest we do it popcorn style (first person to claim names the next, etc).. i.e. I should go first since I already claimed.

Why

do you suggest that way? What is about that method that you think is better than the one I suggested, where we all draw up the order as a group?

[CarnCarn]

You now BELIEVE that I'm the roleblocker AND you think that TCS is a possible scum and yet you DON'T believe my roleblock and contingency plan? That's absolutely ridiculous. If CC is town, then I block TCS tomorrow and we win. This isn't rocket science.

Your contingency plan only works if one of me/TCS is scum. If the scum is someone else, they can just no-kill, sit back in the shadows, and watch the town self-destruct by lynching according to your plan.

If a doctor was protecting you then your roleblock may have been irrelevant. I was actually rather surprised CC didn't raise this possibility, since he's (obviously) claiming he didn't try to kill anybody. Wouldn't it look to him, if innocent, that a doc protect was a possible reason for the no kill? Surely it's at least as likely as a deliberate no-kill by scum?

It's technically possible. My opinion, though, is that it's a scum gambit derived from knowing what veerus was going to do and what conclusions the town would automatically draw from it. It's gut, but I think the scum gambit is more likely at this point, although both is technically possible, too (doc protected, and scum no-killed anyway). I mean, if there is a doc in play, veerus is the obvious choice to protect last night, I think.

What is about that method that you think is better than the one I suggested, where we all draw up the order as a group?

In general, getting an agreement about the order takes much more time, and, with only 1 scum left, picking style is not very corruptable (whereas it might be with multiple scum alive).

[Ripley]

CarnCarn - did you make up your mind yet whether you're in favor of roleclaiming? You said you were going to think it over.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

So wait, Zazier.. let me get this straight.. You now BELIEVE that I'm the roleblocker AND you think that TCS is a possible scum and yet you DON'T believe my roleblock and contingency plan? That's absolutely ridiculous. If CC is town, then I block TCS tomorrow and we win. This isn't rocket science.

Also, I'm VERY MUCH against a massclaim at this point. A miller wouldn't gain us anything. A cop will only out himself when he's found the other scum (on the off-chance that it isn't TCS/CC) and there's no reason to do so sooner. And a doctor is protecting me every night (or he should). Why out the roles that will win the game for us?

If you're REALLY a roleblocker, then a cop claim is the best thing that could ever happen to us. You continue to block CarnCarn while we no-lynch and the cop investigates the rest of us. If the cop dies immediately, you're scum or carncarn is cleared. If the cop lives, we get useful investigations.

[veerus]

If you're REALLY a roleblocker, then a cop claim is the best thing that could ever happen to us. You continue to block CarnCarn while we no-lynch and the cop investigates the rest of us. If the cop dies immediately, you're scum or carncarn is cleared. If the cop lives, we get useful investigations.

Uhh... what?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

If you're REALLY a roleblocker, then a cop claim is the best thing that could ever happen to us. You continue to block CarnCarn while we no-lynch and the cop investigates the rest of us. If the cop dies immediately, you're scum or carncarn is cleared. If the cop lives, we get useful investigations.

Uhh... what?

If you're a roleblocker, a cop claiming today gives us at least two confirmed, not counting the killed cop. An almost guaranteed win. Math plz.

[axle135]

Having 2 confirmed isn't enough... we need at least 3 or I don't think it's really worth it.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Ripley, do you remember this post:

Wait, tcs was

against

the mass claim, so why are you voting him?

This also gives me the impression that it is either CC (as he voted TCS) or that it's TCS as partner. But of those two, I'd actually say that it's TCS over CC.
So I'll

Vote The Central Scrutinizer

I'm also not happy with Veerus at the end. It seems very likely that he's indeed the roleblocker. However, my opinion is that a power role shouldn't announce their target. As the scum could see from your post who you would roleblock, they could decide not to kill to blame the one you would target.

Also, Axle. If you next time know that you would be absent during the deadline, could you before you leave state your suspicions. We didn't know your thoughts at all. We still don't know so could you say something about your suspicions?

I'm still thinking if we should do a massclaim or not. I hope I can state my opinions about that in my next post.

So you think I'm scum because ThAd defended me? That's just awful... scum defend townies all the time.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Okay, well, if we don't want to massclaim, then let's all get on theCarnCarn wagon and veerus will block me tonight. Without the further information that a massclaim would provide, the fact that CC got blocked and there was no kill makes him the logical choice.

[Ripley]

Having 2 confirmed isn't enough... we need at least 3 or I don't think it's really worth it.

You said in Post 173 you were all for the mass claim. Have you changed your mind now?

Okay, well, if we don't want to massclaim, then let's all get on theCarnCarn wagon and veerus will block me tonight. Without the further information that a massclaim would provide, the fact that CC got blocked and there was no kill makes him the logical choice.

I want to mass claim. You wanted to mass claim. We're still waiting to hear ZazieR and CarnCarn's views on the subject, and I'd suggest we don't rush into anything before they've given their opinion. veerus is the only person to be clearly opposed to claiming.

[CarnCarn]

i'm fine with massclaim.

[axle135]

I'm not completely sure about massclaim anymore, but I'll still go for it.

[veerus]

Okay, well, if we don't want to massclaim, then let's all get on theCarnCarn wagon and veerus will block me tonight. Without the further information that a massclaim would provide, the fact that CC got blocked and there was no kill makes him the logical choice.

QFE.

[Ripley]

Not claiming and lynching CarnCarn works fine if CC is scum. So even if that’s the most likely scenario, it’s the scenario where he’s innocent that we have to look at.

If he’s not, and veerus blocks TCS, look at how we’re placed tomorrow.

If nobody dies, we will not know if TCS was blocked, if veerus is scum and just repeating the previous night’s trick of no-killing and blaming his fictional blockee, or if someone else is scum and no-killing knowing veerus is blocking someone else.

If somebody dies, TCS is cleared but we still don’t know who the last scum is. They might no-kill to try and implicate veerus.

If we have a scum that was bold enough to no-kill last night there’s no reason to think it mightn’t happen again.

By claiming now we do at least have the opportunity to establish veerus as innocent. However likely we think that is, as things stand we aren’t sure.

I’m going to go ahead and claim a non-townie role. You surely have to believe me. If I were scum, there is absolutely no reason for me to draw attention to myself when I’m under no particular suspicion. I could just sit here quietly while CarnCarn, and then probably TCS, gets lynched.

So- anyone else going to claim?

[veerus]

I don't get it.. what's "non-townie"? Are you saying you're the other power role?

[CarnCarn]

I’m going to go ahead and claim a non-townie role. You surely have to believe me. If I were scum, there is absolutely no reason for me to draw attention to myself when I’m under no particular suspicion. I could just sit here quietly while CarnCarn, and then probably TCS, gets lynched.

Well then, we have a problem. I'm also a non-vanilla.

[Ripley]

I don't get it.. what's "non-townie"? Are you saying you're the other power role?

Yeah, but it seems so weird including a miller in the category "power role". I'm claiming a non-vanilla role other than RB.

Since CarnCarn is under much more suspicion than I am due to the claimed roleblock on him and the lack of a NK, I think it's reasonable to ask that CarnCarn claim his actual role before I do. It's now certain from my POV that the remaining scum is CC or veerus as was likely from day start). Which has removed my main concern about the game.

[CarnCarn]

Makes sense for me to go first. I'm the cop.

I wasn't able to send in a night choice last night because the thread was reopened before I finished thinking about who to investigate (the thread was reopened a day before the 72 hr deadline for night actions). Not exactly sure if it was intentional or an error, since it was almost exactly 24 hours before the actual deadline, and I really don't want to get into ModWIFOM. I had no idea the game thread had been reopened early; if I did, I would have asked the mod to relock it. By the time I noticed it was opened, people had already posted, and with information about what they supposedly did at night (veerus), at which point I pretty much had to live with my missed night action.
I was thinking about investigating one of Ripley or axle135 after a couple of rereads and going over notes, which I wasn't able to do because of the unexpected reopening. I would probably have chosen axle135 for not voting anyone, but it apparently wouldn't have mattered now, since I think he's cleared at this point anyway.

I don't know if this is really possible, but:

Mod: Can you confirm that I didn't send in a night action last night?

Now your turn, Ripley.