Mini Normal 2334: trees (Day 6)

[DrippingGoofball]

since drnick is odd night

??????

Maybe they discussed an odd night claim in the scum PT.

[DrNickRiviera]

since drnick is odd night

??????

Maybe they discussed an odd night claim in the scum PT.

The irony being that if I was scum fake claiming I would have chosen some sort of modifier to my role, I don't fuck around when I fake claim and cover my bases in case a tracker/watcher is out there

Also the irony of being an alt and describing self meta is not lost on me

Moral of the story.......DGB is doing a good job at muddying the waters, definitely is what you should be doing as scum when your back is up against the wall. Thought with this, and Smilely's recent posts.....makes me want DGB over Similey.......but then I can't see DGB really partnered with anyone besides him.....definitely not Aureal

I think the simplest explanation is the the correct one, just is smiley/DGB

[DrippingGoofball]

I'm doing a good job muddying the waters? I am barely paying attention LOL

[DrippingGoofball]

Kill me first... after my town flip, don't fade Smiley, Smiley is town.

[DrNickRiviera]

I'm doing a good job muddying the waters? I am barely paying attention LOL

Anyone have the yellow m&m available?

Kill me first... after my town flip, don't fade Smiley, Smiley is town.

What if we fade Smiley first and he flips scum?

[SmileyDude1]

I feel like we should be fading within Smiley/Grovyle. I don't see any other explanation for the no kill

Have thought about this for a while and I think I agree here. There are 4 scenarios that result in a no-kill happening here.

1. Scum Grov was blocked from performing the nightkill by DGB

2. Scum Smiley was blocked from performing the nightkill by Nick

3. Nick saved me from being shot by scum

4. Scum decided to no kill last night

- Realistically, I don't see this being what happened here, thought I mention it for posterity sake.

I think Occam's razor probs suggests that the first 2 scenarios are more likely to be the case than the third one. I was hesitant because I wanted to make sure I covered all of the bases before going forward, in part due to paranoia that I might be wrong on Grovyle here, but I think it's correct most of the time to resolve this slot first (the only scenario I can see otherwise, is one where there is a clear and unambiguous pairing within the VT claims and I don't really see myself getting there).

I have the benefit of knowing that scenario 2 can't be true here and it has to be scenario 3 if it's not scenario 1. Comparing the two scenarios I do think it's more likely to have just been 1 rather than 3 here, with enough confidence to essentially stake the game on it (I do fully realize that I probs die in M/ELO if Grov flips green here).

VOTE: Grovyle

If we are in the reality where scum shot into me, then this is unfortunate, though I do think we're just in the world where Scum!Grov got blocked here.

[SmileyDude1]

I'm doing a good job muddying the waters? I am barely paying attention LOL

Anyone have the yellow m&m available?

Kill me first... after my town flip, don't fade Smiley, Smiley is town.

What if we fade Smiley first and he flips scum?

Thing is we are fortunate to be able to spare a mislim here. If it's deemed I should be flipped first then i'm fine with that , just flip Grov afterwards and figure it out from there.

[DrNickRiviera]

I'm doing a good job muddying the waters? I am barely paying attention LOL

Anyone have the yellow m&m available?

Kill me first... after my town flip, don't fade Smiley, Smiley is town.

What if we fade Smiley first and he flips scum?

Thing is we are fortunate to be able to spare a mislim here. If it's deemed I should be flipped first then i'm fine with that , just flip Grov afterwards and figure it out from there.

Also, would there be a world where you would vote DGB here today?

[SmileyDude1]

Yeah I don't see much reason to shoot there either, which is exactly why the jk almost certainly was stopping him from making the kill rather than being it.

Also the whole "working in lockstep with Goofball to defend each other once they got tied together" thing.

If it's almost certain that Smiley is scum then why should we fade DGB today?

think of it this way: i think dgb is almost certainly scum here, and we have 2 PRs right now otherwise alive. since drnick is odd night, this means that if we remove scum's ability to roleblock, it will force scum to kill there and give me an extra result.

also thomith's actions are less scummy than dgb's here, and it very well could have been a PR read shot since scum have only shot 1 PR so far and probably are desperate to find another this close to endgame.

we remove scum's counterplay to the remaining PRs we have a good shot at getting good info the next day. does that make sense? id really prefer if you voted dgb first here for that reason

This stands out to me, cause I think the idea of DGB being a scum roleblocker becomes even more dubious if you're of the thought that Nick was gated jailkeeper here.

Like IMO

Novice V-Cop
Jailkeeper
Neighborizer
VTS

Vs.

Roleblocker
Goons

feels kind of dubious to me on its own. If your thought was that the jailkeeper is gated as well then I do think it becomes rather apparent that an RB for scum doesn't work here. Think Town!Grov would be able to see that.

Also the part about getting an extra result is off to me because it implies a belief that they'd be able to get an useful result out of an additional check. In the world where this is correct and DGB is a scum roleblocker, I think it's undeniably correct that they don't have another PR here which means Grov wouldn't get any info out of an additional check here.

[SmileyDude1]

I'm doing a good job muddying the waters? I am barely paying attention LOL

Anyone have the yellow m&m available?

Kill me first... after my town flip, don't fade Smiley, Smiley is town.

What if we fade Smiley first and he flips scum?

Thing is we are fortunate to be able to spare a mislim here. If it's deemed I should be flipped first then i'm fine with that , just flip Grov afterwards and figure it out from there.

Also, would there be a world where you would vote DGB here today?

I don't see myself doing so no. I think i've come to the conclusion that scum are trying to deflect away from resolving myself/Grovyle in order to force a 50/50 resolution of it in a M/ELO state. I don't see myself voting outside Grov this phase given this.

IMO I think it's probs always correct to eliminate Grov or Me. Think going outside of that plays into scum hands here

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

Yeah I don't see much reason to shoot there either, which is exactly why the jk almost certainly was stopping him from making the kill rather than being it.

Also the whole "working in lockstep with Goofball to defend each other once they got tied together" thing.

If it's almost certain that Smiley is scum then why should we fade DGB today?

think of it this way: i think dgb is almost certainly scum here, and we have 2 PRs right now otherwise alive. since drnick is odd night, this means that if we remove scum's ability to roleblock, it will force scum to kill there and give me an extra result.

also thomith's actions are less scummy than dgb's here, and it very well could have been a PR read shot since scum have only shot 1 PR so far and probably are desperate to find another this close to endgame.

we remove scum's counterplay to the remaining PRs we have a good shot at getting good info the next day. does that make sense? id really prefer if you voted dgb first here for that reason

This stands out to me, cause I think the idea of DGB being a scum roleblocker becomes even more dubious if you're of the thought that Nick was gated jailkeeper here.

Like IMO

Novice V-Cop
Jailkeeper
Neighborizer
VTS

Vs.

Roleblocker
Goons

feels kind of dubious to me on its own. If your thought was that the jailkeeper is gated as well then I do think it becomes rather apparent that an RB for scum doesn't work here. Think Town!Grov would be able to see that.

Also the part about getting an extra result is off to me because it implies a belief that they'd be able to get an useful result out of an additional check. In the world where this is correct and DGB is a scum roleblocker, I think it's undeniably correct that they don't have another PR here which means Grov wouldn't get any info out of an additional check here.

first off, I FINISHED MY FINAL -

shrug i was looking for arguments to resolve my stronger scumread and I misspecced.

drnick being not oddnight makes it more likely

i dont know how balance works on this site that well, I just figured that JK + neighorizer + an investigative was fine here

i think looking at mech is bad anyways and that dgb's dayplay is more incriminating here and that you can reasonably see my progression throughout this game. i am not one that wants to lose to both of us being town and you having been shot at - i dont think its outside of the realm of possibility by any means. who else should have died here? thomith and black after all were fairly clear based on the ming situation and thomith was posting fairly well while they were alive. shortcuts, especially ones that lead to losing situations if you assume wrongly - are bad.


also side note i i

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

also side note I will have time will have time to look at the game tomorrow potentially since my next finals are next week***

idk how that got eaten up there

[DrippingGoofball]

VOTE: Grovyle

[Gibdo]

I think Smiley is making way too much sense to be scum here. My town read on Grov started fading a bit after the D3 lim on Hu Tao anyway. I at least want to give Grovyle time after finals before I commit my vote there.

[Gypyx]

Sorry for not being very talkative but i kinda agree with everything that smiley is saying, besides a jailkeeper and a roleblocker can absolutely coexist imo

[Black]

I think Smiley is making way too much sense to be scum here. My town read on Grov started fading a bit after the D3 lim on Hu Tao anyway. I at least want to give Grovyle time after finals before I commit my vote there.

I agree that Smiley is making sense but that doesn't make him town

What is your read on DGB?

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

Sorry for not being very talkative but i kinda agree with everything that smiley is saying, besides a jailkeeper and a roleblocker can absolutely coexist imo

"coexist" both as town? in what world is that balanced or reasonable for a simple?

(also sorry but I just learned my biology final is today now LMAO so I'll be busy until Tuesday which is after my calculus final)

[Black]

How did you not know you had a Biology final today what

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

I don't think my play makes sense for scum here and I maintain that. The only "argument" against my slot is mech voodoo. Going by dayplay over mechplay is almost always the correct choice, for which DGB falls into the category of having the scummier. I'll point to the hu tao vote again, I clearly showed I played with info I had on hu tao and had they not claimed the role they did, they would have lived there. I don't get how it gets clearer than that that I have been playing this game like a town vanilla cop and its obnoxious that shitty setup spec is being used to discredit me.

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

How did you not know you had a Biology final today what

because I am silly and also the class has been extremely easy for me because its the same stuff I already studied in high school biology class plus a few extra things.

[Aureal]

Sorry for not being very talkative but i kinda agree with everything that smiley is saying, besides a jailkeeper and a roleblocker can absolutely coexist imo

Again.

It's a

Simple.

You are playing a Simple Normal game. These games are designed to provide a newbie-friendly and traditional mafia experience, with little focus on setup speculation. A small list of roles and modifiers are allowed in these games. Please check the wiki to learn more about Simple games, including which roles and modifiers can be in this game.

A traditional experience is precisely what you get with town having jk/vc/neighborizer- a protective, investigative, and communication role. Not so with doubling up on blocking roles and having the only investigation possibility be triple-gated by having to not just successfully block a kill but figure out which of the three possibilities occurred.

I suppose there's a potential possible world where that was actually a scumslip by Grovyle having not been on the same page as Nick about fakeclaims and referenced something they'd talked about, but the setup is not in favor of that. That'd mean we only have a rb and neighborizer, and that miight balance against 3 goons. But if Grovyle/Nick were scum they either took a risk claiming a jk on my slot when for all they knew I could have results which would disprove my having been blocked; or they actually got info on my slot to know I was vanilla, in which case scum is too powerful for a rb/neighborizer town.

[DrNickRiviera]

I was getting real confused when you said I jailed you

I forgot you replaced Dan lol

[DrNickRiviera]

I can go over in more detail why I jailed who I jailed if you want

[Black]

I just don't think Nick is scum here

[DrNickRiviera]

I just don't think Nick is scum here

I was gonna say I feel like we have a good lim pool going forward, but really want some more from Gibdo here before I really commit to it