Mini 703 - A Roccisi Autumn - Over

[Adel]

@ecto: please post links to your last three games as scum.

[insanepenguin02]

3) I find it quite interesting how there was no kill tonight. My guess, from reading the storyline, would be a role blocker blocking the mafia chosen to make the kill. Didn't sound like a doctor protection.

Please expand upon this.
What about the storyline leads you to that conclusion?

"So, who's missing today?"
"I can't see Adel. Didn't she say she was going to die?"
"Yes, I remember that, too. Seems she was right. Let's see whether we find anything useful in her hou.."
The door slams open and much to the surprise of the others, Adel enters the room.
"Someday I'll remember to unlock the cellar if I want them to wake me in the morning.. I mean.. my alarm clock failed to go off."

I am trying to analyze and make sense of this part of the storyline. It would not suggest a doctor protecting anyone. It may lead towards a blocker that caused the mafia to become locked up, unable to make a kill. any other analysis of this?

[insanepenguin02]

Night 2 = Investigated insanepenguin02, received No Result

Insanepenguin02 came out of nowhere, not soon after taking his vote off of darkdude immediately after he claimed, and put his vote right back on only accompanied by a "Whatever...". How is my counter-claim of evidence more suspicious than the act of denying you your voice about darkdude's claim?

Here is my defense from you mentioning my name a couple times in a previous post:
I voted for darkdude at first because he seemed the most suspicious from the second that I started in on this game. Many people were developing a case against him and he wasn't defending himself that well, which made him suspicious. Then he all of a sudden claimed to be tracker, from what I am trying to remember. Immediately after, I unvoted because I didn't want to lynch him if he WAS pro-town.

I then returned to the game and saw that many people read through his lie, built more cases against him, only for him to not defend too well yet again. He was L-1 with everyone against him, so I decided to vote for him and brought the hammer down. Then look - HE WAS SCUM!

Now I understand that I looked suspicious there for just posting my vote and "Whatever...". I should have provided some more reasoning there but didn't. That is my bad. But how does it make me look suspicious after we found out that he was mafia??

Hopefully this post adds some clarification.

[insanepenguin02]

1) I think insanepenguin02 could be scum with anyone, but I haven't heard enough from him to think any which way

why do you think insanepenguin02 could be scum?

I would like to know as well. Thanks!

[insanepenguin02]

EBWOP: Sorry, that Quote inside is from Rage.

[insanepenguin02]

You know what? I'm not going to spend another 3 or 4 hours trying to come up with more of a defense. It's just better if I'm lynched. And, no, this isn't where anyone should take pity on me and take their vote off, this is me saying "just do it already".

I owe it to the game to be lynched, and I've played horribly.

Top Suspects:
- Adel
- Korts
- insanepenguin02
- ThAdmiral

What a cop-out. I have been following your case defending yourself and you have me thinking. I really just want to see more out of some other people before I cast a vote at all.

[Adel]

3) I find it quite interesting how there was no kill tonight. My guess, from reading the storyline, would be a role blocker blocking the mafia chosen to make the kill. Didn't sound like a doctor protection.

Please expand upon this.
What about the storyline leads you to that conclusion?

"So, who's missing today?"
"I can't see Adel. Didn't she say she was going to die?"
"Yes, I remember that, too. Seems she was right. Let's see whether we find anything useful in her hou.."
The door slams open and much to the surprise of the others, Adel enters the room.
"Someday I'll remember to unlock the cellar if I want them to wake me in the morning.. I mean.. my alarm clock failed to go off."

I am trying to analyze and make sense of this part of the storyline. It would not suggest a doctor protecting anyone. It may lead towards a blocker that caused the mafia to become locked up, unable to make a kill. any other analysis of this?

A red herring. Flavor text usually doesn't include any hints, especially in normal games, but it occasionally contains mod mistakes (like when the mod assumes that everyone knows something) but I don't think this is one of those times. Judging from his posts in this game, I really don;t think that TDC would drop hints in flavor text accidentally or otherwise.

[insanepenguin02]

My top suspects:
1) Rage: Things just aren't looking up for you. People have built up cases against you and I am balancing between your defenses and their attacks.

2) Adel: I know that you are just very active but it almost seems as if you are bullying the rest of us around with your questions and views. You are really trying to build cases against many and it seems that you just want all suspicion off of you and onto others. I have a feeling, just a gut feeling, that you are in fact scum....

3) Tubby: In the following quote and "claim", I take it as you are trying to lead us heavily into thinking that you are powerless.

so i will consider this my one and only defense post and so that we can move on i fell the need to go ahead and claim, i know there is no real vote pressure but i am a townie plain and simple,, if you have read my meta you will note

when i have a role i am far more active and care a lil more about the game and try to have a bigger input

.

Since you had to bring this up, it makes me think that perhaps you are just trying to pull the wool over our eyes. This is not a WIFOM moment but again, just a gut feeling.

[insanepenguin02]

A red herring.

I was thinking the same thing actually after I re-read it. That was my only defense for it not being a doctor but rather a roleblocker. So now I really don't know...

[Ectomancer]

@ecto: please post links to your last three games as scum.

I'll see what I can dig up with search. It's been 6 or 7 games or more now I think.

[Ectomancer]

Adel, I read it as TDC poking some fun at you. Nothing game revealing to be found.

2) Adel: I know that you are just very active but it almost seems as if you are bullying the rest of us around with your questions and views. You are really trying to build cases against many and it seems that you just want all suspicion off of you and onto others. I have a feeling, just a gut feeling, that you are in fact scum....

You haven't seen someone bullying yet.

Since town has no idea who scum is, investigating different players is a good idea. Not all questions result in a scummy analysis. Some answers will convince you that someone might be town. (Equally important in mafia)

Is that what your gut opinion was based upon, or do you have more to look at?

[insanepenguin02]

Is that what your gut opinion was based upon, or do you have more to look at?

That was pretty much what I was based off of, just a pushy feeling as if he is trying to get more information than what he already knows.

[Adel]

3) Tubby: In the following quote and "claim", I take it as you are trying to lead us heavily into thinking that you are powerless.

so i will consider this my one and only defense post and so that we can move on i fell the need to go ahead and claim, i know there is no real vote pressure but i am a townie plain and simple,, if you have read my meta you will note

when i have a role i am far more active and care a lil more about the game and try to have a bigger input

.

Since you had to bring this up, it makes me think that perhaps you are just trying to pull the wool over our eyes. This is not a WIFOM moment but again, just a gut feeling.

... how in the hell did I miss that he claimed vanilla townie in that post?

anyhow, looking through his games to compare his activity level between when he does have a role and when he does not....

tubby:
still alive in

• 1. Xyl's Relative Chaos - Night 3
  now finished
  -- scum
  2. Mafia 88- Return to New Catania- Day One
  3. Newbie 673: (Day 2)
  4. Family Guy Mafia - FCC gets da boot (Night 1)
  5. Mafia 82: International (Day 4, four dead again)

Finished Games:

• 1. Mini 669: Mod Abandoned -- townie?
  2. Newbie 644: Kodak City, Muffin District (wrecked) -- scum
  3. Newbie 675: Zeroville Heights (Fell Off a Cliff) -- townie

I noticed two things:

• 1. we do not have any games on this site to compare when he has a ole to when he does not...
  2. in the post game of Xyl's Relative Chaos is the post:
  

  @ vi
  did you see improvement from the last game i was in with you to this one??

  Ehehe. Yes, yes I did.
  You tripped on yourself at first, but once tubgate was sorted out and everyone called you newbTown, you faded into the background. That was good in itself, and you didn't disturb the advantage of people completely overlooking you throughout. And that's how you win as scum; gj.
  
  Granted, improvement may be hard to measure since the last time you were scum, you had a Doc claim weighing you down so nobody was going to ignore you completely. But still.
  
  What you need now is confidence so you can go on the offense. And/or to be scum more often~

  source: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=890
  
  Vi is a good player who has now played two games with tubby-scum.
  
  Thoughts?

[Ectomancer]

viewtopic.php?t=7568&highlight=

Went into the hospital, was replaced below. *incomplete

viewtopic.php?t=7268&highlight=

In this one I was accused of being a dick. I got the strategy for my play from Muhammad Ali and Aflac.

viewtopic.php?t=8431&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&start=0

Added a 4th link if you want only completed games.

viewtopic.php?t=5505&highlight=

[Kison]

I noticed two things:

• 1. we do not have any games on this site to compare when he has a ole to when he does not...
  2. in the post game of Xyl's Relative Chaos is the post:
  

  @ vi
  did you see improvement from the last game i was in with you to this one??

  Ehehe. Yes, yes I did.
  You tripped on yourself at first, but once tubgate was sorted out and everyone called you newbTown, you faded into the background. That was good in itself, and you didn't disturb the advantage of people completely overlooking you throughout. And that's how you win as scum; gj.
  
  Granted, improvement may be hard to measure since the last time you were scum, you had a Doc claim weighing you down so nobody was going to ignore you completely. But still.
  
  What you need now is confidence so you can go on the offense. And/or to be scum more often~

  source: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=890
  
  Vi is a good player who has now played two games with tubby-scum.
  
  Thoughts?

He seems equally lurky in his three abandoned games, while he is far more active in Xyl's Relative Chaos - more comparable to his activity in this game. Maybe it's the longer duration deceiving my eyes, though.

1) Rage: Things just aren't looking up for you. People have built up cases against you and I am balancing between your defenses and their attacks.

That's awfully vague. What do you think of both the attacks and his defense?

[Adel]

when in doubt try to quantify. Here is one attempt to evaluate tubby's activity in a game. Be warned that this methodology makes no attempt to measure how much attention he attracted, or to evaluate how active he was in one game (posts/day) with how active he was in another game, or how his activity level has changed with calendar time, or how many words he used each day relative to everyone else. Invariably, there are many variables that can’t be controlled for (like how spammy the other players were) but looking at the number of posts provides a data point I suspect will be worth looking at. Also note that I count the mod as being a player because I don’t want to take the time to factor each mod’s posts out.

sample:

I. game name, tubby's role & alignment

• A. Day 1
  • 1. (number of game posts while during that day)/(number of players alive during that day) = (average number of posts per player for that day)
    2. (number of tubby's posts during that day)/(average number of posts per player) =
    tubby’s activity ratio for that day
    
    3. Notes (if any)

I. Xyl's Relative Chaos, mafia power role

• A. Day 1
  • 1. (601-0)/(16)= 37.6
    2. (33-0)/(37.6)=
    .878
    
    3. Note that tubby was attacked for rolefishing around Nov. 1, and said in the post game that he managed to escape a certain lynch.

• B. Day 2
  • 1. (650-601)/(14)= 3.50
    2. (36-33)/(3.50)=
    .875

• C. Day 3
  • 1. (711-650)/(10)= 6.10
    2. (43-36)/(6.10)=
    1.15

• D. Day 4
  • 1. (757-711)/(6)= 7.67
    2. (48-43)/(7.67)=
    .652

• D. Day 5
  • 1. (865-757)/(6)= 18.0
    2. (66-48)/(18)=
    1.00

II. gamename, tubby's role & alignment

• A. Day 1
  • 1. ()/()=
    2. ()/()=

• B. Day 2
  • 1. ()/()=
    2. ()/()=

• C. Day 3
  • 1. ()/()=
    2. ()/()=

this is all I got to tonight... I included this outline for the next one of his games so that anyone else with the time and inclination can fill it out.

[TDC]

Vote Count

Rage (3): Ectomancer, Kison, Korts

Not voting (6): tubby216, insanepenguin02, afatchic, Rage, ThAdmiral, Adel

Flavour is just flavour. Searching for game relevant information (other than who died) will be futile.
I'm very happy with today's activity. Keep going!

[ThAdmiral]

Having reviewed the adel case on rage (i.e. that rage's counter claim was something they'd practiced) I find I like it as a possibility less and less. Mainly because if they are going to do gambits such as this I believe they would play down the fact that they knew each other so well (and therefore lead less people to think they would try a gambit like that in the first place).

Either that, or ThAdmiral is scum with darkdude because he quickly found his spot on the darkdude bandwagon when it was forming, and upon darkdude's questioning he simply said he found the case to be the strongest he had seen. He unvoted later after finding the argument on darkdude unappealing.

After darkdude's claim, he ends up asking if he can be the hammer vote without any input about his thoughts on darkdude's claim.

I'm keeping my eye on this.

I was sure darkdude was scum. I just wanted to see if we could get anymore out of him before he died.

I don't like that there is a bit of deflection at the end of your long post (mainly to insanepenguin and me).

@ adel: rages post 520 in this game is (I believe) most similar to his post 755 in 634 (i.e. the one where he was town), as it seems more orderly and less pressured than the one he made as scum (167 in 632). However he was at -1 in that post so it is makes sense he was under a bit more pressure.
Basically I don't know how much bearing it has on his alignment.

I haven't done much of a reread yet. i replaced into multiple games near the same time because i usually have sympathy for games needing replacements since i hate games i play in when people bail and no one is willing to replace. but now i have finally caught up in the others, so this one is next. but can someone explain to me why we are all voting a claimed tracker?

This is actually a good question.

Seriously - occams razor: the most obvious thing is often the right one. In this case he most likely is the tracker (rather than a scum buddy pulling a gambit).


I am currently against a rage lynch, and with every vote that is put against him I find myself more against it.
I am currently getting more suspicious of korts, and will build a case against him.
But not now, I've got to go late night christmas shopping...

[Ectomancer]

I am currently against a rage lynch, and with every vote that is put against him I find myself more against it.

Does this happen to you with every wagon you are against? Why mention it unless it is unusual for you? If it is unusual for you, then it isn't the votes that are increasing your resistance, but something surrounding the votes.
Can you put some more elaboration into this statement?

[Adel]

I haven't done much of a reread yet. i replaced into multiple games near the same time because i usually have sympathy for games needing replacements since i hate games i play in when people bail and no one is willing to replace. but now i have finally caught up in the others, so this one is next. but can someone explain to me why we are all voting a claimed tracker?

This is actually a good question.

Wouldn't it be awesome if someone voting for him took the time to write out a detailed explanation for why they are still voting for him?

~~~

Wouldn't it be awesome if ThAdmiral voiced a strong opinion on other people's alignment once in a while?

[Kison]

This helpful?

Xyl's Relative Chaos

- Scum
8.0% of total activity (71/893)
Total words posted: 2602. Average per post: 36.65

Newbie 644

- Scum
3.5% of total activity (18/512)
Total words posted: 1024. Average per post: 56.89

Mini 669

- Town
2.4% of total activity (20/832)
Total words posted: 844. Average per post: 42.20

Newbie 675

- Town
2.2% of total activity (9/410)
Total words posted: 421. Average per post: 46.78

This Game

6.2% of total activity (35/568)
Total words posted: 1684. Average per post: 48.11


II. Mini 703 - Alignment Unknown

• A. Day 1
  • 1. (232-0)/(12)=19.33
    2. (7)/(19.33)=0.362

• B. Day 2
  • 1. (492-232)/(10)=26
    2. (32-7)/(26)=0.962

[Rage]

I'm supposed to be in many places in the next couple of days so I've got lots of preparation to do, but I want to let you all know that there is a post coming. Should I post what I have so far? I've nearly completed everything I want to say, and if I do post what I have it would be very nice to inform me of what I've missed or something else anyone wants me to respond to.

[ThAdmiral]

I am currently against a rage lynch, and with every vote that is put against him I find myself more against it.

Does this happen to you with every wagon you are against? Why mention it unless it is unusual for you? If it is unusual for you, then it isn't the votes that are increasing your resistance, but something surrounding the votes.
Can you put some more elaboration into this statement?

Rather than answering all your questions specifically I will answer the lot by just elaborating.

Basically this seems to be one of those situations where there is a lot of focus on the one person (in this case rage). It is also one of those situations where it seems anything that person does (be it respond casually or panicked to accusations against them, or to answer in depth or answer bluntly) only seems to get them into more trouble and so more votes pile on. This one seems like a bit of a runaway train, especially since it moved from -3 to -1 (kison and korts) before rage could get a word in.

Wouldn't it be awesome if ThAdmiral voiced a strong opinion on other people's alignment once in a while?

Big Korts case coming up.
(but it is chrismtas eve so it might be a while before I have some more free time and I have to post in my other games as well)

[Rage]

Don't expect much activity from me tomorrow (25th) or the day after (26th). I'm out for both of those days.

[Adel]

This helpful?

Xyl's Relative Chaos

- Scum
8.0% of total activity (71/893)
Total words posted: 2602. Average per post: 36.65

Newbie 644

- Scum
3.5% of total activity (18/512)
Total words posted: 1024. Average per post: 56.89

Mini 669

- Town
2.4% of total activity (20/832)
Total words posted: 844. Average per post: 42.20

Newbie 675

- Town
2.2% of total activity (9/410)
Total words posted: 421. Average per post: 46.78

This Game

6.2% of total activity (35/568)
Total words posted: 1684. Average per post: 48.11


II. Mini 703 - Alignment Unknown

• A. Day 1
  • 1. (232-0)/(12)=19.33
    2. (7)/(19.33)=0.362

• B. Day 2
  • 1. (492-232)/(10)=26
    2. (32-7)/(26)=0.962

for the % of total activity you didn't control for player deaths. The Average per post looks sound, but doesn't appear to inform us of his alignment. Perhaps that would be more useful if you separated that information into individual days.

For the Mini 703 information it looks like you didn't include the moderator in your math.... I think it should be:
II. Mini 703 - Alignment Unknown

• A. Day 1
  • 1. (232-0)/(13)=17.9
    2. (7)/(17.9)=0.391

• B. Day 2
  • 1. (492-232)/(11)=23.6
    2. (32-7)/(23.6)=1.06

~~~

I updated this:



I apologize if it breaks your screen.