Mini Theme 2328: Death Note: Second Page. Day 3!

[CUDDLE TIME]

I think I've been pushed a whole lot this game so I don't know if your feelings about my slot match the material

Can you quote who pushed you except me and Aureal?

- Dragon

[CUDDLE TIME]

Okay bye I have some other things to do so I'll continue posting later

- Dragon

[Gimli]

I think I've been pushed a whole lot this game so I don't know if your feelings about my slot match the material

Can you quote who pushed you except me and Aureal?

- Dragon

rat, AD, and more recently drew said he wouldn't vote AD because me and klick are pushing it

[Gimli]

Okay bye I have some other things to do so I'll continue posting later

- Dragon

bye bb

[Gimli]

@black where you at?

[Enchant]

Freedom replaces Doctor Drew. Welcome!

[Freedom]

i'm going to sleep soon but hi y'all!

[Freedom]

UNVOTE:
at least for now

[Klick]

BUT

As someone said (I think Klick but maybe Gimli), Kira would be someone for whom there's not a lot of appetite today. Do you know for whom there's no appetite today? Gimli.

This is true in a very relative sense. More accurately, Kira is someone who
a) two other players in this game will be avoiding eliminating; and
b) will be trying to play in such a way that they avoid the elimination.

Those are the two things we're searching for when solving for Kira.

I think the

ideal

for Kira is to not receive heat today. But scum have limited control over the actions of town. Kira might receive heat anyway. It's a point to consider in the context of everything else that's going on.

(I also think I disagree that there's no appetite for Gimli - the appetite is just lower-influence than the main lines atm. You probably feel like there is less appetite because you are one of the players with an amount of appetite for it and aren't counting yourself. But you're not the only person who has been trying to posit the possibility of a Gimli lim.)

[Klick]

Hi Freedom

Aureal is the primary reason I told Gimli 'pretty high' instead of 'very high' earlier
I think I still strongly prefer ActionDan and think he's a very strong shot at hitting Kira
But if scum aren't going to let that go through then I'm willing to explore Aureal for a bit

[Little Will o' Wisp]

Ok, I'm back. I've prepered a whole assortment of candies, chocolates and other suggary treats to get me through this. Time to overanalize the game. V/LA status cleared.

[Hu Tao]

This game is hard. And we get no flips

This sort of post is what makes it impossible for me to read you. It drives me crazy.

And I even kinda agree with the sentiment it displays!

[ActionDan]

Hu's post felt flat and pointless. She says she was going to have a read on T-Bone but decided not to because someone said so.

I am of two minds about this. On the face of it, Hu developing a town read on T-bone and then discounting it because of assessing T-bone has the same capability as scum to produce posts that earn a town read is not sensical. That's giving meta from another game equal weight to content specific to this game. That should never be the case, but if people actually believe they are equal then it is logical. This is consistent with Hu's scum read on you because of vibes or something being off or over-defensiveness. Hu has already defied and come below my expectations of what a normal town player ought to play like from our last game together. It's not a stretch to think it's happening here too.

[ActionDan]

Hey Dragon, feel free to pursue Aureal, but you can't avoid forever coming up with a better reason to have a town read on Klick. It's obvious you're capable. So again, why?

[Aureal]

It feels like you're really reaching for something here, and I don't like it.

If you want a wagon so much, why aren't you building one? You're vanity wagoning someone whom you admit you don't actually have much of a scumread on while there are other options you're open to who actually have votes.

In post 435, Hu Tao wrote:
Hi Kira, I am your loyal follower. Please do not kill me at night. Thank you.

Oh. Okay. Thanks for letting me know.

VOTE: Gimli

Aureal do you mind explaining the thought process behind shading me for not building a wagon and then like 2 posts later randomly joining the wagon I'm trying to build? How does that work?

- Dragon

Well YOU weren't, someone's got to

But really, are you not actually reading everything again, Dragon? You seem to be taking point for the hydra so if you're gonna be the face it's going to be even harder to figure out what to do about you if you're not even paying attention to things.

Like, I told you I'd look over your case, and I did, and the conclusion I came to was basically "I guess it's

possible

- I agree that Gimli's posts are fakeable as scum, but I don't see any particular reason to think they

are

so this feels uncomfortably like trying to grasp for some way to break up a forming townbloc."

And then, an actual two posts later, HPE told us that Gimli got the incognito from it. That's actual new information and it changed my perspective because I have a hard time grasping how the person who received incognito from someone else apparently had zero curiosity about it. I saw Gimli's name in question marks at the start of the game and went to remind myself what was up with that, saw that it was the incognito skill, and figured that must've been what Gimli rolled because I don't really see a reason to give it to someone else. But Gimli would've known he didn't roll it, someone else did. I'd be thinking "who did this and why?" and instead of thinking that way, Gimli ended up pushing HPE over its signals that it was responsible for doing that. I'd been townreading Gimli largely for being on the same page as me so that lost me.

[Aureal]

I'm also fine with HPE now after re-reading it

me/klick/hpe/aureal/cuddle time townbloc

both followers and kira in rr/hu tao/drew/AD/will

@klick what do you think

Wait how am I back in your townbloc?

in general, I am townreading you. my distrust with your posting has to do with how you're acting to and around HPE, and your responses to me, trying to make it seem like you were pushing HPE first when you did no such thing + softdefending it every chance you had, fits a world in which HPE is kira and you're a follower.

I've also been reading into some other stuff that isn't worth mentioning right now.

when I read HPE in isolation yesterday, it's giving me emotional sincerity when in real time I was reading phonyness. so for d1 I'll try to work out a solve that doesn't contain either of you.

do reach out and find me in your heart if you're town

Mmmm

I guess reconsidering HPE would reasonably have that effect, not that I really understand why you or anyone was ever townreading me in the first place.

[Hu Tao]

Hu's post felt flat and pointless. She says she was going to have a read on T-Bone but decided not to because someone said so.

I am of two minds about this. On the face of it, Hu developing a town read on T-bone and then discounting it because of assessing T-bone has the same capability as scum to produce posts that earn a town read is not sensical. That's giving meta from another game equal weight to content specific to this game. That should never be the case, but if people actually believe they are equal then it is logical. This is consistent with Hu's scum read on you because of vibes or something being off or over-defensiveness. Hu has already defied and come below my expectations of what a normal town player ought to play like from our last game together. It's not a stretch to think it's happening here too.

What was our last game?

[Hu Tao]

Also why can't I just be mimicking that? Or be the same as scum and town?

[Aureal]

I also have other thoughts on Aureal which I've held back for a while because i was under the impression Black had a strong TR on Aureal, but since Black doesn't have a strong TR of Aureal anymore I might as well say them:

I feel Aureal's posting this game, especially early on, is EXTREMELY erratic and nervous, which is something I generally scumread. The thing is, often when I scumread Aureal for that she's town. The OTHER thing is, last game where Aureal was scum she was also like that I think. And I kinda feel like Aureal is forcing her hyper aggressive, towny tone in order to appear towny, which might be a sign of being Kira?

And I just realized that I'd been pinged early by Rat's vote on Aureal and i thought it could've been traitor signaling and now I can finally make sense of TRing Gimli and SRing Rat, if Rat is actually an Aureal follower and am I thinking too fast? Maybe. But I do think I could be on the right track and I promise this is not scum!me sowing chaos even though it's chaotic as fuck

Anyway VOTE: Aurea

- Dragon

Oh boy, more people with no understanding of how I actually work trying to meta-read me off of nothing, that's always amusing.

It's kinda convenient to turn your read on me around right when the person who was expressing a strong townread of me is gone, you have to admit.

[Aureal]

I think I've been pushed a whole lot this game so I don't know if your feelings about my slot match the material

Can you quote who pushed you except me and Aureal?

- Dragon

Can you quote more than two people who've pushed

anyone

this game, if placing an actual vote is your standard? I think the only one to get more pressure has been HPE and maaaaaybe you (but most of that was unserious threats to policy you for being a big hydra, and yeah I think you might be nervous and over-reacting to that with the way you've taken over the posting and the others have basically disappeared).

[Aureal]

Hi Freedom

Aureal is the primary reason I told Gimli 'pretty high' instead of 'very high' earlier
I think I still strongly prefer ActionDan and think he's a very strong shot at hitting Kira
But if scum aren't going to let that go through then I'm willing to explore Aureal for a bit

Wow, I trust you the most at this point and still this makes me sorta feel like you're somehow trying to reverse psychology me into not voting Dan by linking him with me like that. But that makes no sense.

I'll vote Dan, but I don't feel he's too likely to be Kira since his playstyle here just seems to be unrelenting aggression that I largely can't see any reason for. He's a good candidate to be a follower though, just trying to take down someone else other than his Kira. At this point I'm willing to consider that good enough for day one.

[Little Will o' Wisp]

I'm still on page 10. This is much harder than I thought it would be. I need to give my brain a break. For now I'll post what I have.

During this re-read of the game, I'm focusing on getting associetive reads leading from followers to Kira. My top Kira-read using this method is Cuddle. As much as I like their posts (mainly Dragon and Thomith), there's just so many people who could be their followers: Dan, Drew, Erinys, Gimli, Klick, Rat and Tao.

There's no one who's got even close to 7 potential followers. But there's many people with exactly 3 "non-followers". This is my "non-Kira" list:

• Drew (Aureal, Klick, Rat).
  
• Erinys (Cuddle, Dan, Klick).
  
• Gimli (Aureal, Cuddle, Erinys).
  
• Tao (Aureal, Cuddle, Dan).

These four could be of either alignment, but I don't think they are Kira.

Keep in mind that this is only up to page 10. I'll continue with this train of reasoning later.

[Aureal]

Hu's post felt flat and pointless. She says she was going to have a read on T-Bone but decided not to because someone said so.

I am of two minds about this. On the face of it, Hu developing a town read on T-bone and then discounting it because of assessing T-bone has the same capability as scum to produce posts that earn a town read is not sensical. That's giving meta from another game equal weight to content specific to this game. That should never be the case, but if people actually believe they are equal then it is logical. This is consistent with Hu's scum read on you because of vibes or something being off or over-defensiveness. Hu has already defied and come below my expectations of what a normal town player ought to play like from our last game together. It's not a stretch to think it's happening here too.

What was our last game?

I expect he's talking about Reunion.

And this is yet another example of Dan just totally not caring what people think of him, since his risk is growing at this point and he decides it's a great time to belittle you, when it's 2 days to deadline and I think you'd be willing to vote him?? Having a hard time seeing Kira play like that.

[Aureal]

There's no one who's got even close to 7 potential followers. But there's many people with exactly 3 "non-followers". This is my "non-Kira" list:

Uh, can you elaborate on what this means? I don't understand where you're going with this at all since there's precisely 2 followers of Kira. Like, if you're ruling out Kiras because there's not even 2 people who could be their followers (which I think it's probably too early to say here regardless) then there's still a huge gulf between 3 non-followers and 7. At most the people who have the most non-followers are just somewhat less likely to be Kira.

[Little Will o' Wisp]

There's no one who's got even close to 7 potential followers. But there's many people with exactly 3 "non-followers". This is my "non-Kira" list:

Uh, can you elaborate on what this means? I don't understand where you're going with this at all since there's precisely 2 followers of Kira. Like, if you're ruling out Kiras because there's not even 2 people who could be their followers (which I think it's probably too early to say here regardless) then there's still a huge gulf between 3 non-followers and 7. At most the people who have the most non-followers are just somewhat less likely to be Kira.

Yes, they are less likery to be Kira. They are in a four-way tie at the bottom of the list, which is why I don't think they are Kira.